Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive fundamental investment analysis of the three publicly traded Mexican airport operators: Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR), and Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA). The Mexican airport sector presents a compelling investment case, characterized by a quasi-monopolistic market structure, long-term concession agreements that provide significant revenue visibility, and direct exposure to powerful secular growth drivers. These drivers include Mexico’s resilient and expanding tourism industry, robust domestic economic activity, and the strategic benefits of the “nearshoring” phenomenon.

The three operators, while governed by the same regulatory framework, represent distinct strategic archetypes for investors.

• Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) emerges as a balanced operator, strategically positioned with a diversified portfolio that includes major economic hubs like Guadalajara, the critical U.S. cross-border gateway of Tijuana, and premier tourist destinations such as Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta. GAP is embarking on a transformational, capital-intensive growth phase.
• Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR) stands as the preeminent international tourism gateway, anchored by the dominant Cancún International Airport. Its strategy is differentiated by a significant international diversification into Colombia and Puerto Rico, offering a hedge against singular reliance on the Mexican economy.
• Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA) is uniquely positioned as the primary beneficiary of Mexico’s industrial and manufacturing economy. Its portfolio, centered on the industrial heartland of Monterrey and now under the strategic influence of global operator VINCI Airports, offers a direct play on the nearshoring trend and business travel.

The regulatory environment is the cornerstone of the sector’s investment profile. The public-private partnership model, based on long-term concessions, is governed by a five-year cycle centered on the Master Development Plan (PMD). This mechanism links mandatory capital expenditures to a regulated “maximum rate” tariff, creating a predictable, investment-led growth engine. While this framework provides stability and a guaranteed return on invested capital, the periodic renegotiation of these PMDs represents the single most significant source of event risk for the sector.

A comparative analysis reveals a clear set of trade-offs for investors. GAP offers the most aggressive long-term growth profile, driven by a historic capital expenditure plan, but this comes with higher financial leverage and execution risk. ASUR provides superior profitability margins and a strong balance sheet, anchored by its flagship asset, but with a higher concentration risk in leisure tourism and the complexities of its international operations. OMA presents a more conservative balance sheet and a direct link to Mexico’s industrial growth, backed by the operational expertise of a global leader, suggesting a potential shift towards a more disciplined, long-term value creation model. This report dissects these strategic differences, financial profiles, and valuation metrics to provide a complete framework for assessing the relative merits and risks of each operator.

The Mexican Aviation Sector: A Regulated Growth Market

The investment appeal of Mexico’s airport operators is fundamentally rooted in the confluence of a favorable industry structure and a set of powerful, durable demand drivers. The quasi-monopolistic nature of the regional concessions, combined with a regulatory framework that incentivizes growth, creates a stable and predictable operating environment. This structure is amplified by strong tailwinds from a resilient tourism sector, growing domestic wealth, and strategic economic shifts like nearshoring, positioning the aviation sector as a critical artery for Mexico’s economic development.

Industry Structure & Regulatory Framework: A Public-Private Partnership Model

Unlike the predominantly public ownership model in the United States, Mexico pursued a privatization strategy in the late 1990s that has become a global benchmark. This approach was designed to secure private financing for critical infrastructure upgrades and to introduce commercial efficiency into airport operations.¹

The Concession Model

The Mexican government opted for a long-term lease or concession model rather than an outright sale of its airport assets.¹ Under this framework, private consortiums were granted concessions, typically for 50 years, to operate, maintain, and develop groups of airports. In exchange for managing these strategic assets, the operators are obligated to make significant capital investments and pay an annual fee to the government.¹

This structure has created a formidable barrier to entry. Each of the three major operators—GAP, ASUR, and OMA—holds the exclusive right to operate the commercial airports within its designated geographic region. This grants them a quasi-monopolistic position, insulating them from direct airport-versus-airport competition within their catchment areas. The model was also designed to ensure the viability of smaller, less profitable airports by bundling them with larger, highly profitable international hubs, creating a system of internal cross-subsidization that was previously managed by the state.²

The “Maximum Rate” Tariff Mechanism

The economic engine of the concession model is the regulatory pricing framework. The system is designed to provide operators with a predictable return on their investments while ensuring continued infrastructure development. This process is governed by two key, interconnected elements:

1. The Master Development Plan (PMD): Every five years, each airport operator must negotiate a PMD with the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC).³ This comprehensive plan details the mandatory capital expenditure (CapEx) projects and major maintenance works the operator commits to undertake over the subsequent five-year period.⁴ These plans are extensive and form the basis for the airport’s capacity expansion and modernization efforts.
2. The Maximum Rate: In conjunction with the PMD approval, AFAC sets a “maximum rate” for each airport. This rate is a price cap, calculated per “workload unit” (defined as one terminal passenger or 100 kilograms of cargo), that the airport can charge for its regulated aeronautical services.⁵ These services include passenger charges (TUA), landing fees, aircraft parking, and passenger jetway fees. The maximum rate is calculated using a formula designed to allow the operator to recover its operating costs, the cost of the committed investments in the PMD, and earn a reasonable rate of return on that invested capital.

This system effectively creates a recurring “CapEx for growth” cycle. Operators are incentivized to propose ambitious investment plans because their future revenue potential is directly linked to the size of their approved PMD. A larger investment commitment leads to a larger regulated asset base, which in turn justifies a higher absolute level of aeronautical revenue and EBITDA in subsequent periods. This provides a clear, predictable path to growth that is contractually embedded in the concession agreement.

The maximum rate is not static. It is adjusted annually for inflation (as measured by Mexico’s Producer Price Index) and reduced by a pre-determined “efficiency factor”.⁵ This efficiency factor, typically less than 1%, compels operators to achieve productivity gains each year to maintain their profitability, aligning the interests of the operators with those of the public. While this framework provides exceptional long-term revenue visibility, the five-year renegotiation process for the PMD and maximum rate introduces a significant point of “event risk,” as any major change to the formula or a dispute with the regulator could materially impact the operators’ financial outlook.

The Regulator: Agencia Federal de Aviación Civil (AFAC)

Established in October 2019 to replace the former Directorate General of Civil Aeronautics (DGAC), the Agencia Federal de Aviación Civil (AFAC) is the primary government body responsible for regulating and overseeing the civil aviation industry in Mexico.⁸ Operating under the Secretariat of Infrastructure, Communications, and Transportation (SICT), AFAC’s mandate is to ensure that air transportation services comply with national and international standards, contribute to regional development, and operate safely and efficiently.³

AFAC’s most critical function concerning the airport operators is its authority to review, negotiate, and ultimately approve the five-year PMDs and the corresponding maximum tariffs.³ This role places the agency at the center of the industry’s economic model. The power of the regulator was starkly demonstrated in March 2025, when AFAC issued a directive that abruptly restricted access to approximately 2,119 of the country’s 2,208 airports, reclassifying them for private use only.¹¹ While this action primarily affected smaller, private airstrips and did not directly impact the major commercial airports operated by GAP, ASUR, and OMA, it serves as a potent reminder of the regulator’s capacity for significant and unexpected policy shifts, which remains a key consideration for investors.

Macroeconomic & Demand Drivers: Favorable Tailwinds

The stable regulatory structure of the Mexican airport sector is complemented by a powerful set of demand drivers that support a positive long-term outlook for passenger and cargo traffic growth.

Economic Outlook

Mexico’s economic performance is a primary driver of domestic air travel, which is closely correlated with business activity and disposable income. While the economic momentum has slowed in 2025, with GDP growth forecasts trimmed to below 1% due to trade-related headwinds, the outlook remains one of modest expansion.¹² The economy narrowly avoided a technical recession in the first quarter of 2025 with 0.2% growth.¹² Inflation, while still above the central bank’s target, has prompted the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to begin an easing cycle, which could support economic activity going forward.¹² Over the longer term, Mexico is well-positioned to benefit from the “nearshoring” trend, as U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods encourage companies to relocate manufacturing and supply chains closer to the U.S. market, a trend that directly benefits the industrial regions served primarily by OMA.¹²

Tourism as a Growth Engine

Tourism is a cornerstone of the Mexican economy and a critical demand driver for its airports, particularly for ASUR and GAP. Mexico has solidified its position as a leading global tourism destination, with international visitor numbers and revenue showing a robust recovery and expansion in the post-pandemic era.¹⁵ In the first five months of 2025, Mexico welcomed over 39.4 million international visitors, generating $14.6 billion in revenue, a 44.4% increase compared to the same period in pre-pandemic 2019.¹⁶

The United States and Canada are the dominant source markets, accounting for approximately 63% and 20% of international visitors, respectively, in early 2025.¹⁶ This heavy reliance on North American travelers makes the sector highly sensitive to economic conditions and consumer sentiment in the U.S. and Canada. A recent trend of concern is a decline in international arrivals by air, which fell 5.6% year-over-year in May 2025, even as total visitor numbers (including land crossings) rose sharply.¹⁸ Officials attribute this to a global shortage of aircraft, but it remains a key metric to monitor, as air travelers have significantly higher average spending, accounting for nearly 80% of total tourism income in May 2025.¹⁹

Aviation Sector Dynamics

The Mexican aviation market is experiencing a period of dynamic growth. As of August 2023, Mexico surpassed Brazil to become the largest aviation market in Latin America by passenger numbers.²⁰ This growth is fueled by several factors. The expansion of domestic low-cost carriers (LCCs) like Volaris and Viva Aerobus has made air travel more accessible to a broader segment of the population, stimulating demand for domestic routes.²¹

A pivotal development was the restoration of Mexico’s Category 1 aviation safety rating by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in September 2023.²⁰ The previous downgrade to Category 2 had frozen the ability of Mexican airlines to add new routes or frequencies to the United States. The upgrade immediately unlocked pent-up demand for expansion, with Aeromexico and Viva Aerobus announcing over 25 new U.S. routes within weeks of the decision.²⁰ This expansion is a significant tailwind, particularly for operators like GAP and OMA, whose airports in cities like Guadalajara, Tijuana, and Monterrey are natural hubs for new cross-border business and VFR (visiting friends and relatives) routes. The overall Mexican aviation market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% from 2025 to 2033, reaching a market size of $16.8 billion.²¹

Despite the positive momentum, challenges remain. Tensions between the U.S. and Mexican governments over policies that redirect flights from the heavily congested Benito Juarez International Airport (AICM) in Mexico City have created uncertainty and threatened partnerships like the one between Delta and Aeromexico.²³ Furthermore, the industry continues to advocate for a more collaborative state aviation policy that promotes investment and sustainability, particularly in the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF).²⁰

In-Depth Company Analysis

While operating under a common regulatory and macroeconomic framework, the three airport groups have cultivated distinct strategic identities, portfolio compositions, and financial profiles. An in-depth analysis of each operator reveals the specific opportunities and risks associated with their unique market positioning and growth strategies.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP): The Pacific Powerhouse

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) has established itself as a premier operator with a strategically balanced portfolio that captures a diverse mix of passenger traffic, including major urban centers, world-class tourist destinations, and a unique cross-border franchise.

Portfolio and Strategic Position

GAP holds concessions to operate 12 airports in Mexico’s Pacific and central regions, complemented by international operations at Montego Bay and Kingston airports in Jamaica.²⁴ The portfolio’s strength lies in its diversification across key demand segments:

• Major Metropolitan Hubs: Guadalajara International Airport (GDL) is the company’s flagship, serving Mexico’s second-largest city and a thriving economic center.
• Cross-Border Gateway: Tijuana International Airport (TIJ) is a unique strategic asset. Through its direct connection to a terminal in San Diego, USA, via the Cross Border Xpress (CBX) pedestrian bridge, it functions as a binational airport, capturing significant cross-border and VFR traffic.
• Premier Tourist Destinations: Los Cabos (SJD) and Puerto Vallarta (PVR) are two of Mexico’s most important and high-end leisure destinations, attracting significant international tourism.
• Regional Airports: The portfolio is rounded out by several mid-sized city airports, including Hermosillo, Guanajuato, and Aguascalientes, which cater to domestic business and leisure travel.²⁷

This balanced exposure allows GAP to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on a single segment, such as a downturn in international tourism or a slowdown in domestic business activity.

Financial & Operational Performance

GAP has demonstrated a strong track record of growth, with annual revenue increasing from approximately $11.1 billion MXN in 2016 to $33.2 billion MXN in 2023.²⁸ The company’s post-pandemic recovery has been robust, though recent traffic figures present a nuanced picture. In June 2025, total passenger traffic across its Mexican airports increased by a modest 0.7% year-over-year.²⁹ This was driven by a 1.7% increase in domestic traffic, while international traffic saw a slight decline of 0.8%.²⁹ Performance was mixed among its key airports, with Los Cabos growing 1.7%, while Guadalajara and Tijuana saw declines of 1.1% and 2.3%, respectively.²⁹ This suggests some softness in key markets, even as smaller domestic airports posted strong double-digit growth.³⁰ For the twelve months ending March 31, 2025, GAP’s revenue was $1.93 billion, a 16.7% increase year-over-year.³¹ EBITDA for the full year 2024 was $994 million.³²

Growth Strategy – The 2025-2029 PMD

GAP’s forward-looking strategy is defined by one of the most ambitious investment plans in the sector’s history. The company’s approved Master Development Plan for the 2025-2029 period commits to a “historic” investment of over Ps. 52 billion across its 12 Mexican airports.³³ This level of capital expenditure represents a significant strategic inflection point, designed to dramatically expand capacity and modernize its infrastructure to meet projected long-term demand.

Key projects within the PMD include ³³:

• Guadalajara Transformation: A massive Ps. 26 billion will be invested in the state of Jalisco, with Ps. 22 billion dedicated to transforming Guadalajara’s airport. This includes the construction of a new 69,000-square-meter terminal building (a 73% increase in infrastructure), a new 6-kilometer access road, and the acquisition of 285 hectares of land for future expansion, including a potential second runway.³³
• Puerto Vallarta Expansion: Finalization of a new 74,000-square-meter terminal, which will more than double the airport’s current capacity.³³

This aggressive CapEx plan will substantially increase GAP’s regulated asset base, locking in a higher platform for aeronautical revenue growth well into the next decade. However, it also introduces significant execution risk and will require substantial funding, which will increase the company’s financial leverage compared to historical levels.

Capital Management

GAP has a consistent history of returning capital to shareholders through dividends.³⁶ The company typically makes multiple payments per year. In May 2025, the company announced the payment of the first installment of its dividend approved at its annual shareholders’ meeting.³⁸ The funding for its large-scale PMD is expected to come from a combination of operating cash flow and new debt issuances, which investors will need to monitor closely as it will alter the company’s balance sheet profile.³⁹

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR): The International Tourism Gateway

ASUR’s investment identity is defined by its ownership of Mexico’s premier international tourism asset, Cancún International Airport, and a unique strategy of geographic diversification that extends its footprint beyond Mexico into the Caribbean and South America.

Portfolio and Strategic Position

ASUR operates a portfolio of nine airports in the southeast of Mexico, which are heavily weighted towards tourism.⁴⁰ The undisputed crown jewel of this portfolio is Cancún International Airport (CUN), which is the most important gateway for international tourists to Mexico and the broader Latin American and Caribbean region.⁵ In 2023, Cancún alone accounted for 75.3% of ASUR’s passenger traffic in Mexico.⁴¹

What truly differentiates ASUR from its peers is its international expansion. The company holds a 60% stake in Aerostar Airport Holdings, the operator of Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport (SJU) in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and also operates six airports in Colombia, including the international airport in Medellín (MDE), the country’s second-busiest.⁵ This diversification provides exposure to different economic cycles, regulatory regimes, and tourism markets, reducing its absolute dependence on the Mexican market.

Financial & Operational Performance

ASUR’s financial performance is heavily influenced by the trends in international tourism. In 2023, aeronautical services represented 59.0% of revenues, with passenger charges alone accounting for 45.7% of the consolidated total.⁴¹ International passengers are the primary driver, generating 51.5% of ASUR’s Mexican passenger charge revenues in 2023.⁴¹

Recent performance has been mixed across its geographies. In June 2025, passenger traffic increased by 1.7% in Colombia but decreased by 2.8% in Mexico and 3.3% in Puerto Rico.⁴⁰ In the first quarter of 2025, despite a 4.8% traffic decrease in Mexico, strong growth in Puerto Rico (+10.6%) and Colombia (+6.4%) led to a consolidated revenue increase of 18.2% to Ps. 8.8 billion and an EBITDA increase of 11.7% to Ps. 5.7 billion.⁴³ ASUR has consistently maintained industry-leading profitability margins, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 70.0% in Q1 2025.⁴³

Growth Strategy – The 2024-2028 PMD

ASUR’s growth strategy is centered on reinforcing the dominance of its flagship asset. The company’s approved PMD for the 2024-2028 period outlines a total committed investment of Ps. 28.5 billion (in constant 2022 pesos).⁵ An overwhelming majority of this capital, approximately Ps. 21.5 billion or 75%, is allocated to Cancún International Airport.⁵ This focused investment strategy aims to expand capacity and enhance services at its most critical hub to accommodate the continued growth in international tourism.

While this strategy leverages the company’s greatest strength, it also deepens its concentration risk. The international assets, while diversifying, introduce their own set of complexities, including different regulatory environments in Colombia and Puerto Rico, and exposure to distinct political and economic risks, such as Puerto Rico’s economic fragility and Colombia’s history of political instability.⁴¹

Capital Management & Risk Profile

ASUR is known for its conservative capital management and exceptionally strong balance sheet. As of Q1 2025, the company held a cash position of Ps. 22.7 billion and reported a negative Net Debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA ratio of -0.5x, indicating it has more cash than debt.⁴³ This financial strength provides significant flexibility for investments and shareholder returns. The company has a strong track record of paying substantial dividends, announcing a plan in April 2025 for an ordinary dividend of Ps. 50.00 per share and two extraordinary dividends of Ps. 15.00 each.⁴³

The company’s 20-F filing provides a comprehensive disclosure of its risk factors, which are instructive for the entire sector. Key risks include its high dependence on Cancún, the vulnerability of its geographic footprint to hurricanes and other natural disasters, and its sensitivity to economic conditions in the United States.⁴¹

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA): The Industrial & Nearshoring Beneficiary

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA) is uniquely positioned as a direct proxy for the health and growth of Mexico’s industrial economy. Its strategic focus on business and manufacturing hubs, combined with the recent backing of a major global operator, presents a distinct investment profile.

Portfolio and Strategic Position

OMA operates a network of 13 airports across nine states in Mexico’s central and northern regions.⁴⁴ The portfolio is anchored by Monterrey International Airport (MTY), which serves Mexico’s third-largest metropolitan area and is a critical hub for the country’s manufacturing, industrial, and business sectors.⁴⁴ Other key airports in its network include Culiacán, Chihuahua, and the border city of Ciudad Juárez, as well as tourist destinations like Acapulco and Mazatlán.⁴⁵

This geographic focus makes OMA the primary beneficiary of the nearshoring trend, which is driving increased investment and business travel to northern Mexico.¹⁴ A pivotal strategic development occurred in December 2022, when VINCI Airports, a leading global private airport operator, became OMA’s largest shareholder.¹⁴ This partnership brings significant operational expertise, technological know-how, and a long-term industrial perspective to OMA’s management and strategic planning.

Financial & Operational Performance

OMA’s performance reflects the strength of its core markets. In June 2025, total passenger traffic surged by 8.5% compared to the prior year, with domestic traffic up 8.2% and international traffic showing strong growth of 10.5%.⁴⁸ This performance is indicative of the robust business and VFR travel demand in its regions. Historically, OMA has demonstrated impressive operational leverage, with EBITDA margins expanding from 51% in 2010 to over 73% in 2019, prior to the pandemic.⁴⁹ For the full year 2024, OMA reported revenue of Ps. 15.1 billion and earnings of Ps. 4.9 billion.⁵⁰ In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company generated an adjusted EBITDA of Ps. 2.4 billion, representing a strong margin of 73.8%.⁵¹

Growth Strategy – The 2021-2025 PMD

OMA is currently executing its PMD for the 2021-2025 period, which was approved in November 2020.⁶ This plan committed to a total investment of nearly Ps. 12.0 billion (in 2019 pesos), with the largest share, Ps. 6.7 billion, allocated to the expansion and modernization of its flagship Monterrey airport.⁶ This includes significant upgrades to terminal facilities to handle growing passenger volumes.

The upcoming negotiation for the 2026-2030 PMD will be a key catalyst for the company. It will be the first five-year plan fully developed under the strategic direction of VINCI Airports.⁵³ This is expected to result in a highly optimized and technically sophisticated investment plan focused on operational efficiency and long-term value creation. This shift may lead to a more “industrial” approach to capital allocation, potentially prioritizing reinvestment in technology and sustainable infrastructure over maximizing short-term dividend payouts.

Capital Management

OMA has historically maintained a more conservative balance sheet than its peers, with a lower debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45 in early 2020.⁴⁹ This financial prudence provides a solid foundation for its growth initiatives. The company has a strong history of returning capital to shareholders, with its dividend policy being a key component of its investor value proposition.⁵⁴ The influence of VINCI may lead to a re-evaluation of this policy, potentially balancing dividend payments with a greater emphasis on reinvesting cash flow into long-term strategic projects.

Comparative Framework: A Head-to-Head Analysis

To facilitate an informed investment decision, it is essential to directly compare the three operators across key strategic, financial, and valuation metrics. This framework highlights the distinct characteristics and trade-offs inherent in each company.

Geographic Footprint and Traffic Mix Comparison

The strategic positioning of each operator is best understood by examining their geographic focus and the nature of the traffic they serve. The table below illustrates the fundamental differences in their business models, which in turn drives their varying sensitivities to different economic and market trends.

Operator	Key Airports	Primary Traffic Drivers	2024 Passenger Mix (Approx.)
GAP	Guadalajara, Tijuana, Los Cabos, Puerto Vallarta	Balanced: Business, VFR, Cross-Border, Leisure Tourism	Domestic: 57%, International: 43%
ASUR	Cancún, San Juan (PR), Medellín (CO)	Concentrated: International Leisure Tourism, Diversified Geographies	Mexican Ops: Domestic: 49%, International: 51%
OMA	Monterrey, Culiacán, Chihuahua, Ciudad Juárez	Concentrated: Domestic Business, Industrial, Nearshoring, VFR	Domestic: 85%, International: 15%

Note: Passenger mix percentages are derived from recent traffic reports and may fluctuate. ASUR’s mix is for its Mexican operations only.

This comparison reveals ASUR’s heavy reliance on international tourism at Cancún, making it highly sensitive to global travel trends and the health of the U.S. consumer. In contrast, OMA’s portfolio is overwhelmingly domestic and tied to the industrial economy of northern Mexico. GAP occupies a middle ground, with a more balanced split that provides exposure to multiple distinct drivers.

Financial & Operational Scorecard

A quantitative comparison of financial and operational metrics provides a clear snapshot of each company’s performance, profitability, and balance sheet strength. The following scorecard uses trailing twelve-month (TTM) data where available to provide a current view.

Metric	GAP	ASUR	OMA
Growth
5-Yr Revenue CAGR (approx.)	~17%	~10%	~12%
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (TTM)	64.8%	~70.0%	61.7%
Net Margin (TTM)	30.4%	~40.0%	34.5%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC, TTM)	13.9%	N/A	23.4%
Leverage
Net Debt / EBITDA (TTM)	1.75x	-0.5x	0.98x
Total Debt (Latest Quarter)	$2.43B	$0.72B	$0.55B
Efficiency
Revenue per Passenger (TTM, approx.)	~$22.50	~$25.00	~$26.00
EBITDA per Passenger (TTM, approx.)	~$14.50	~$17.50	~$16.00

Sources:.⁴³ Revenue and EBITDA per passenger are analyst estimates based on reported traffic and financials. CAGR figures are approximate based on historical data.

This scorecard highlights several key differences. ASUR demonstrates superior profitability margins, a function of the high-value international traffic at Cancún and its strong commercial operations. It also maintains the strongest balance sheet, with a negative net debt position. OMA shows excellent capital efficiency with the highest ROIC. GAP, while highly profitable, currently has the highest leverage, a figure that is expected to increase as it executes its new PMD.

Growth Investment & Shareholder Returns

The capital allocation philosophies of the three operators diverge significantly, particularly regarding the balance between reinvesting for growth and returning capital to shareholders.

Metric	GAP	ASUR	OMA
Current PMD Period	2025-2029	2024-2028	2021-2025
Committed PMD Investment	~Ps. 52.0B	~Ps. 28.5B	~Ps. 12.0B
PMD Investment as % of Market Cap (approx.)	~24%	~16%	~15% (of cap at time of announcement)
Dividend Yield (TTM)	3.16%	~5.0% (based on 2025 plan)	3.57%
Dividend Payout Ratio (TTM)	>100% (distorted by timing)	~80% (historical average)	612% (distorted by timing)

Sources:.⁵ PMD as % of Market Cap is an estimate. Payout ratios can be volatile due to the timing of large, semi-annual or special dividends.

This table starkly illustrates GAP’s aggressive reinvestment strategy. Its committed PMD investment represents a significantly larger portion of its market capitalization compared to its peers, signaling a “growth-first” approach. ASUR and OMA, while still investing heavily, appear to follow a more balanced model. ASUR’s announced 2025 dividend plan implies a very attractive yield, reflecting its strong cash generation and balance sheet capacity.

Relative Valuation vs. Global Peers

Contextualizing the valuation of the Mexican operators against their international peers is crucial for assessing their relative attractiveness. The table below compares key valuation multiples.

Company	Country	P/E (TTM)	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	Dividend Yield (%)
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC)	Mexico	26.6x	14.5x	3.16%
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR)	Mexico	12.7x	~8.0x	~5.0%
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA)	Mexico	21.7x	13.2x	3.57%
Corporación América Airports (CAAP)	LatAm/Europe	19.9x	6.5x	0.00%
Aena (AENA)	Spain	18.1x	~10.0x	4.17%
Fraport AG (FRA)	Germany	15.5x	11.7x	0.00%
Airports of Thailand (AOT)	Thailand	29.0x	15.8x	1.96%

Sources:.⁵⁷ Data as of mid-2025, subject to market fluctuations. Some figures are analyst estimates.

The valuation comparison reveals a wide dispersion. ASUR appears to trade at a significant discount to both its Mexican and global peers on P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, while offering a superior dividend yield. This may reflect market concerns over its concentration in Cancún or the complexities of its international assets. GAP and OMA trade at higher multiples, closer to some of their developed market peers, which could be justified by their stronger growth profiles (in GAP’s case) or the strategic premium associated with VINCI’s involvement (in OMA’s case).

Comprehensive Risk Assessment

An investment in the Mexican airport sector, while offering compelling attributes, is not without significant risks. These can be categorized into three primary areas: regulatory and political, economic and market sensitivity, and operational execution.

Regulatory & Political Risk (The Primary Overhang)

This represents the most significant and pervasive risk for the sector. The operators’ fortunes are inextricably linked to the decisions of the Mexican government and its regulatory bodies.

• PMD & Tariff Renegotiation Risk: The five-year renegotiation cycle for the Master Development Plans and maximum rates is the single largest source of uncertainty. While the framework has been stable for over two decades, the process can be subject to political pressure. In October 2023, the market was severely rattled by news that the government was unilaterally seeking to amend the tariff-setting mechanism, which caused a sharp sell-off in the airport stocks. While a negotiated settlement was ultimately reached, the incident highlighted the government’s power to alter the terms of the concessions and served as a reminder that the “rules of the game” can change, impacting the long-term return profile of the investments.
• Concession Risk: The concessions for all three operators are set to expire in 2048. While this is a distant event, there is no guarantee of renewal. More immediate is the risk of early termination, which can be triggered by various events, including failure to meet PMD investment commitments, systematically exceeding maximum rates, or for reasons of “national security or public interest”.⁴¹
• Policy and Tax Changes: The government can implement other policy changes that affect the operators. This includes potential increases in the concession fees paid to the government, changes to federal tax laws, or new environmental regulations that could increase operating costs or limit expansion.⁴¹

Economic & Market Sensitivity

The operators’ revenues are directly tied to passenger and cargo volumes, which are highly sensitive to broader economic and market conditions.

• Macroeconomic Cycles: A recession in Mexico would dampen domestic business and leisure travel, directly impacting OMA and the domestic segments of GAP and ASUR. Crucially, given the reliance on North American visitors, an economic downturn in the United States would have a severe impact on international traffic, particularly for the tourist-focused airports of ASUR and GAP.⁴¹
• Mexican Peso (MXN) Volatility: Currency fluctuations present a dual risk. A weaker peso can make Mexico a more attractive tourist destination, potentially boosting international passenger numbers. However, it also increases the cost of servicing any U.S. dollar-denominated debt and can reduce the U.S. dollar value of dividends paid to international investors.
• External Shocks and Tourism Trends: The industry is vulnerable to external shocks such as global pandemics, acts of terrorism, or geopolitical events that can abruptly curtail international travel.⁴¹ Specific to the region, risks include the seasonal threat of hurricanes, which can cause significant infrastructure damage and operational disruption, and environmental issues like the proliferation of sargassum seaweed on Caribbean beaches, which can negatively impact the appeal of destinations like Cancún.

Execution & Operational Risk

The operators face significant operational challenges in managing complex infrastructure and executing large-scale investment programs.

• CapEx Execution Risk: The ambitious, multi-billion peso investment plans outlined in the PMDs carry substantial execution risk. The potential for construction delays, cost overruns, and logistical challenges in carrying out major projects without disrupting ongoing airport operations is significant. This risk is particularly acute for GAP, given the unprecedented scale of its 2025-2029 PMD.
• Hub Concentration Risk: Both ASUR and OMA exhibit a high degree of concentration risk. ASUR’s financial health is overwhelmingly dependent on the performance of Cancún International Airport, while OMA relies heavily on Monterrey. Any event that specifically impacts these hubs—such as localized economic issues, security concerns, or major operational disruptions—would have a disproportionate effect on the respective company’s overall results.
• Labor Relations: A significant portion of the operators’ workforce is unionized. Any breakdown in labor relations could lead to strikes or other disruptions that would halt airport operations, resulting in significant financial losses and reputational damage.⁴¹

Investment Considerations & Concluding Remarks

The analysis of Mexico’s three major airport operators reveals a sector with a strong structural foundation and favorable long-term growth prospects. The regulated concession model provides a unique combination of monopolistic positioning and predictable, inflation-linked cash flows. However, the choice between GAP, ASUR, and OMA is not straightforward, as each presents a distinct risk-reward profile. The following points synthesize the analysis to address the key investment questions.

Which operator has the most defensible competitive position?

ASUR arguably holds the most defensible single asset in the form of Cancún International Airport. Its status as the primary gateway to Mexico’s premier global tourism region provides an unparalleled competitive moat and significant pricing power. However, GAP’s portfolio contains two highly strategic and difficult-to-replicate assets: the Tijuana airport with its unique Cross Border Xpress bridge, which creates a structural advantage in the massive Southern California-Mexico travel market, and the Guadalajara airport, which serves a vast and economically vital metropolitan area. OMA’s competitive position is anchored by its dominance in Mexico’s industrial heartland through the Monterrey hub, making it the most direct way to invest in the country’s manufacturing and nearshoring growth.

How do concession terms and regulatory frameworks differ across operators?

The core regulatory framework and concession terms are fundamentally identical for all three operators. They are all governed by the Mexican Airport Law, operate under 50-year concessions (expiring in 2048), and are subject to the same five-year PMD and maximum rate-setting process under the oversight of AFAC. The key differences arise not from the legal terms but from the negotiated outcomes of their respective PMDs, which reflect their unique airport portfolios, traffic forecasts, and investment needs.

What are the key differentiating factors in their growth strategies?

The operators’ growth strategies are markedly different, reflecting their distinct market positions:

• GAP’s strategy is one of aggressive, broad-based capacity expansion. Its historic Ps. 52 billion PMD is a transformational plan to significantly upgrade its entire network, with a particular focus on turning Guadalajara into a world-class hub.
• ASUR’s strategy is one of focused reinforcement and international diversification. It is concentrating the bulk of its investment on solidifying the dominance of its Cancún cash-cow asset while using its international operations in Colombia and Puerto Rico as a secondary growth vector and diversifier.
• OMA’s strategy is one of targeted investment to capitalize on industrial growth. Its investments are centered on enhancing capacity at Monterrey and other northern airports to serve the growing demand from business travel and nearshoring-related activity, guided by the operational expertise of its major shareholder, VINCI.

How do their capital allocation priorities align with shareholder value creation?

The operators present a clear spectrum of capital allocation philosophies. GAP is currently prioritizing reinvestment for long-term growth, as evidenced by its massive PMD, which will consume a significant portion of its cash flow and require additional leverage. While it continues to pay dividends, its focus is clearly on building a larger asset base for the future. ASUR, with its formidable cash generation and fortress balance sheet, appears to offer the most balanced approach, capable of funding its PMD while also returning a significant amount of capital to shareholders via substantial ordinary and extraordinary dividends. OMA’s approach is evolving; historically a strong dividend payer with a conservative balance sheet, the influence of VINCI may lead to a more disciplined, long-term industrial model that could moderate payout ratios in favor of strategic reinvestments in technology and efficiency.

Which operator offers the most attractive risk-adjusted return potential?

The answer depends entirely on an investor’s risk tolerance and strategic preferences:

• For an investor prioritizing stability, high profitability margins, and a strong balance sheet, ASUR is the most compelling choice. Its lower valuation multiples and high dividend yield offer a defensive profile, though this comes with concentration risk in leisure tourism and the complexities of its international portfolio.
• For an investor seeking the highest potential long-term growth and willing to accept higher financial leverage and execution risk, GAP presents the most aggressive option. The successful execution of its transformational PMD could lead to a significant re-rating of the stock in the long run.
• For an investor seeking a pure-play on Mexico’s industrial growth and the nearshoring trend, with the added comfort of a sophisticated global operator as a major shareholder, OMA is the most logical choice. It offers a more conservative balance sheet than GAP and a clearer strategic focus than ASUR’s diversified model.

How do current valuations reflect the underlying business quality and growth prospects?

Current valuations appear to reflect these strategic differences. ASUR’s lower multiples suggest the market may be pricing in risks related to its Cancún concentration or applying a discount for its more complex, multi-country structure. GAP and OMA trade at a premium to ASUR, which can be justified by GAP’s ambitious growth pipeline and OMA’s strong position in the attractive nearshoring theme, coupled with the “seal of approval” from VINCI’s ownership. Relative to global peers, the Mexican operators as a group offer a compelling combination of regulated, infrastructure-like cash flows with emerging market growth rates, a dynamic that justifies close investor scrutiny.

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