Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis of Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. (OMAB), a key operator of infrastructure assets within Mexico’s dynamic aviation sector. The central investment thesis for OMAB is predicated on its strategic position as a primary beneficiary of two powerful, concurrent tailwinds: the secular growth driven by the “nearshoring” phenomenon reshaping North American supply chains, and the cyclical recovery and expansion of air travel in a post-pandemic, post-regulatory upgrade environment.

OMAB operates a portfolio of 13 airports, strategically concentrated in Mexico’s northern and central industrial heartlands. This geographic footprint, anchored by the Monterrey International Airport, differentiates it from its peers, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR) and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), whose portfolios are more heavily weighted toward international tourism. This positioning provides OMAB with unique exposure to the growth in business travel, air cargo, and logistics demand stemming from increased foreign direct investment in Mexico’s manufacturing sector.

Financially, OMAB exhibits the attractive characteristics of a mature infrastructure asset, including high and stable profitability, demonstrated by adjusted EBITDA margins that have approached 80%, and robust, consistent operating cash flow generation. The company maintains a conservative balance sheet with a low leverage ratio, affording it significant financial flexibility to execute its large-scale capital expenditure program while simultaneously delivering substantial returns to shareholders through a consistent and growing dividend policy.

Key catalysts for the company include the continued expansion of manufacturing capacity in Northern Mexico, the multi-year runway for transborder route expansion by Mexican airlines following the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) reinstatement of Mexico’s Category 1 safety rating in late 2023, and significant national infrastructure investment plans.

However, the investment case is not without material risks. The primary concern is the sovereign and regulatory environment in Mexico. A unilateral change in concession terms by the government in October 2023 has introduced a higher level of political risk that must be factored into any valuation. Furthermore, the company’s performance remains sensitive to macroeconomic cycles in both Mexico and the United States, and it faces execution risk on its ambitious capital investment plans.

The valuation analysis presented in this report utilizes multiple frameworks, including comparable company analysis and a discounted cash flow model. It does not provide a specific price target but instead offers a range of potential intrinsic values based on various scenarios for growth, profitability, and risk. This framework is intended to equip investors with the analytical tools necessary to assess the current market valuation of OMAB against its fundamental prospects and inherent risks.

The Mexican Aviation Market: A Sector in Ascent

Post-Pandemic Trajectory & Structural Growth Drivers

The Mexican aviation market has demonstrated a powerful recovery following the global pandemic, transitioning from a cyclical rebound to a phase of sustained structural growth. The market, valued between USD 7.64 billion and USD 7.96 billion in 2024, is forecast to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ranging from 4.6% to 8.2% over the next decade, potentially reaching a market size of USD 12.48 billion to USD 16.80 billion by 2033-2034.¹ This outlook is supported by robust passenger traffic figures; a record 118.1 million passengers were transported in 2023, a 10.6% year-over-year increase, with growth continuing into 2025.⁴

This expansion is propelled by several fundamental drivers. Domestically, an expanding middle class with rising disposable income is increasingly substituting long-distance ground transportation for more accessible and affordable air travel, a trend accelerated by the proliferation of low-cost carriers (LCCs).³ Internationally, Mexico’s status as a premier global tourism destination, particularly for travelers from the United States and Canada, provides a resilient demand base.³ The aviation sector is a vital component of the national economy, directly and indirectly supporting 1.8 million jobs and contributing a total of USD 88.3 billion to Mexico’s GDP.⁸

A critical secular tailwind bolstering the sector is the “nearshoring” phenomenon—the strategic relocation of manufacturing and supply chain operations from Asia to Mexico to be closer to the U.S. consumer market. This trend is driving significant foreign direct investment into Mexico’s industrial states, particularly in the northern and central regions where OMAB has a dominant presence.⁹ This industrial renaissance fuels demand for high-yield business travel, air cargo, and logistics services, creating a durable, long-term growth driver that is distinct from tourism cycles.¹¹

To support this anticipated growth, Mexico has embarked on a significant infrastructure investment program. From 2025 to 2030, a total of MX134billionisslatedforairportmodernizationandexpansionprojects.Privateairportgroups,includingOMAB,areexpectedtofundthemajorityofthisinvestment,contributingMX102.59 billion, underscoring the public-private partnership model that defines the sector.¹²

The FAA Category 1 Upgrade: Unlocking Transborder Growth

A pivotal development for the Mexican aviation industry was the reinstatement of its Category 1 aviation safety rating by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in September 2023.¹³ The country had been under a Category 2 downgrade since May 2021, a 28-month period during which Mexican-domiciled airlines were prohibited from adding new routes to the United States or expanding codeshare agreements with U.S. partners.¹³ This restriction severely hampered the growth of Mexican carriers in the lucrative transborder market, the world’s second-largest international country market, and resulted in estimated industry losses exceeding USD 1 billion.⁷

The restoration of Category 1 status immediately unlocked this pent-up growth potential. In the weeks following the announcement, Mexican airlines, including Aeroméxico and Viva Aerobus, announced more than 25 new routes to U.S. destinations.¹ This rapid expansion directly translates into increased aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue opportunities for airport operators like OMAB, driven by higher flight frequencies, new destinations, and increased passenger volumes.

During the downgrade period, U.S. carriers aggressively expanded their capacity to Mexico, capturing a larger share of the market.¹⁵ The upgrade allows Mexican airlines to rebalance this competitive dynamic, enabling them to deploy new aircraft and recapture market share. This renewed competition is expected to stimulate overall market growth, benefiting all airport operators. The upgrade is not merely a one-time event but the catalyst for a multi-year phase of network expansion and capacity growth in the critical U.S.-Mexico corridor, providing a sustained tailwind for passenger traffic through the medium term.

Competitive Dynamics: An Oligopoly of Three

The Mexican airport sector is effectively an oligopoly, dominated by three publicly traded, privatized airport groups, each with a geographically distinct and exclusive portfolio of concessions. This structure creates formidable barriers to entry and grants each operator a quasi-monopoly within its respective region.

• Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB): Operates 13 airports in Mexico’s central and northern regions. Its portfolio is uniquely weighted towards industrial, manufacturing, and business centers, with Monterrey International Airport (MTY) serving as its anchor asset. This positions OMAB as the primary beneficiary of the nearshoring trend.⁹
• Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR): Operates nine airports in southeastern Mexico, a portfolio dominated by the Cancún International Airport (CUN), Mexico’s busiest airport for international passengers. ASUR’s business is heavily leveraged to international tourism and leisure travel. The company has also diversified internationally with operations in Puerto Rico and Colombia.¹⁹
• Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP): Operates 12 airports in Mexico’s Pacific and central regions. Its portfolio is a hybrid, serving major business hubs like Guadalajara (GDL) and Tijuana (TIJ) as well as premier tourist destinations such as Los Cabos (SJD) and Puerto Vallarta (PVR). GAP also operates two airports in Jamaica.²¹

The growth of all three groups has been significantly influenced by the rise of LCCs, such as Volaris and VivaAerobus. These carriers have democratized air travel in Mexico, stimulating domestic demand and feeding traffic into the hub airports of each group.⁴

Regulatory Framework: The Concession Model’s Strengths and Risks

The foundation of the Mexican airport model is the long-term concession agreement granted by the government during the privatization process in the late 1990s.²⁴ These concessions provide operators with the exclusive right to manage and develop their airports for a 50-year term, with potential for extension. This long-term, exclusive framework provides a strong economic moat.

Revenues are governed by a “dual-till” regulatory system. Aeronautical revenues—such as passenger usage fees (TUA) and landing charges—are regulated. Tariffs are subject to a maximum rate per “workload unit” (one passenger or 100kg of cargo). This maximum rate is determined every five years as part of a Master Development Plan (MDP), which is negotiated with the government and includes binding capital expenditure commitments.²⁵ This system provides a degree of revenue predictability and a clear framework for investment. Non-aeronautical revenues, derived from commercial activities like retail and parking, are not regulated, allowing operators to capture the full upside from their commercial initiatives.

Despite the structured nature of the concessions, the regulatory framework carries significant risk. In October 2023, the Mexican government unilaterally amended the concession terms, increasing the fee paid by operators on gross revenues from 5% to 9% and modifying the basis for tariff calculations.⁹ This action, perceived by credit rating agencies and investors as arbitrary, fundamentally altered the risk profile of the sector.²⁴ It demonstrated that the government is willing to change established agreements, introducing a level of political uncertainty that was not previously priced into these assets. Consequently, any long-term valuation of Mexican airport operators must now incorporate a higher country risk premium to account for the potential for future adverse regulatory actions.

Company Analysis: OMAB’s Strategic Footprint and Business Model

Portfolio Analysis: The Central-Northern Corridor Advantage

OMAB’s portfolio of 13 airports across nine states is strategically concentrated in the economic engine of central and northern Mexico.⁹ This geographic focus provides a distinct competitive advantage by aligning the company’s assets with the nation’s most powerful industrial and logistical growth trends.

The cornerstone of the portfolio is Monterrey International Airport (MTY), which serves Mexico’s third-largest metropolitan area and is a vital hub for international trade and manufacturing.¹⁸ Monterrey is a primary destination for nearshoring-related foreign direct investment, and as such, MTY is the principal driver of OMAB’s passenger traffic and revenue growth.²⁶

Beyond its anchor asset, the portfolio is intelligently diversified to capture various facets of regional economic activity:

• Major Industrial and Border Hubs: Airports in Ciudad Juárez, Reynosa, Chihuahua, and San Luis Potosí are located in key manufacturing clusters and along critical trade corridors with the United States. These airports are direct beneficiaries of the integration of North American supply chains.⁹
• Leisure and Tourism Destinations: The airports in Acapulco, Mazatlán, and Zihuatanejo provide valuable diversification into the leisure travel market. While this segment offers growth, it also exposes OMAB to the volatility of tourism trends and the risk of natural disasters, as evidenced by the operational disruptions at Acapulco following Hurricane Otis.²⁸
• Regional Economic Centers: Airports in Culiacán, Durango, Tampico, Torreón, and Zacatecas serve as essential links for regional business and commerce, supporting the broader economic ecosystem of their respective states.⁹

This portfolio construction makes OMAB the most direct public-market vehicle for investors seeking exposure to Mexico’s industrial renaissance.

Revenue Engine Breakdown: Aeronautical vs. Non-Aeronautical

OMAB operates a dual-stream revenue model, balancing regulated aeronautical income with high-growth, unregulated non-aeronautical income.⁹

• Aeronautical Revenues: Comprising the majority of total revenues, this segment includes all fees related to aircraft and passenger processing, such as passenger usage fees (TUA), landing and aircraft parking fees, and jetway charges.³⁰ These revenues are directly tied to passenger and cargo volumes and are regulated under the five-year MDP framework. In the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, aeronautical revenues demonstrated robust growth of 13.8%, reflecting strong traffic recovery and tariff adjustments.³¹
• Non-Aeronautical Revenues (The Growth Engine): This segment represents the company’s key strategic focus for margin expansion and value creation. It has consistently outpaced aeronautical revenue growth and is composed of three sub-segments:

• Commercial Activities: This includes traditional airport commercial operations such as car parking, retail stores, food and beverage outlets, advertising, and VIP lounges. This area has been a source of strong performance, with revenues growing 22.8% in Q1 2025, driven by new commercial openings and increased passenger spending.³¹
• Diversification Activities: This is a key differentiator for OMAB and a direct play on its strategic location. It includes the operation of two hotels, cargo handling services (OMA Carga), and, most notably, industrial real estate services through the leasing of warehouses in its industrial park at Monterrey airport.¹⁸ This sub-segment is a powerful growth driver, with revenues increasing 22% in Q1 2025. The industrial services component surged by an exceptional 56.4%, a clear indication of the tangible financial benefits of the nearshoring trend.³¹
• Complementary Activities: This includes revenues from leasing space to third-party service providers and other access fees.³⁰

The rapid expansion of non-aeronautical revenues, particularly the high-margin diversification activities, is fundamentally enhancing the quality and resilience of OMAB’s business model, reducing its sole reliance on passenger volumes.

The Concession Moat

OMAB’s primary competitive advantage stems from the long-term, exclusive concessions it holds to operate its 13 airports, which were granted during Mexico’s airport privatization in 1998.⁹ These concessions effectively create regional monopolies with extremely high barriers to entry, ensuring a captive market for the company’s services.

A central feature of the concession is the Master Development Plan (MDP), a five-year agreement negotiated with the Mexican government that mandates specific capital investment commitments in exchange for the right to charge regulated aeronautical tariffs. The current MDP for 2021-2025 involves a committed investment of over Ps. 14.5 billion, focused on enhancing capacity, quality, and safety across the airport network.³³ This required investment ensures the modernization of critical national infrastructure while providing OMAB with a regulated asset base from which to generate returns.

A significant enhancement to OMAB’s operational and strategic capabilities came in December 2022, when it became part of VINCI Airports, the world’s leading private airport operator.¹⁸ This partnership provides OMAB with access to a global network of expertise in airport management, commercial development, and operational efficiency. This affiliation can be expected to yield benefits in areas such as route development, non-aeronautical revenue optimization, and best practices in corporate governance, further strengthening its competitive moat.

Financial Performance and Condition

Historical Analysis (2020-2024)

OMAB’s financial performance over the past five years tells a story of remarkable resilience and powerful growth. After navigating the unprecedented downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, where total revenues fell by 37.1% ³⁰, the company staged a robust recovery. By 2022, passenger traffic had already surpassed pre-pandemic levels, increasing 28.8% compared to 2021 to reach 23.2 million passengers.³⁵

This momentum accelerated into 2023, which was a record-setting year for the company. Full-year passenger traffic grew by 15.6% to 26.8 million. This operational leverage drove exceptional financial results, with aeronautical revenues increasing by 27% and non-aeronautical revenues growing by 18%. Consequently, adjusted EBITDA surged by 27.8% to a record Ps. 9.1 billion.²⁷

Profitability is a hallmark of OMAB’s financial profile. The company’s high operating leverage allows incremental revenue to flow to the bottom line at an attractive rate. The adjusted EBITDA margin reached an impressive 76.3% in 2022 and expanded further to a record 78.4% for the full year 2023.²⁷ This level of profitability is among the highest in the global airport industry and underscores the efficiency of the company’s operations and the favorable economics of its concession model.

The strong performance has continued into the current fiscal year. The results for Q1 2025 showed a 9.1% increase in total passenger traffic year-over-year. Total revenues, excluding the pass-through construction component, grew 15.6%, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 16% to Ps. 2.4 billion, maintaining a very strong margin of 74.9%. Consolidated net income for the quarter grew 19.7% to Ps. 1.3 billion, demonstrating continued earnings power.³¹

Cash Flow Generation and Balance Sheet Strength

OMAB’s business model is characterized by its ability to generate substantial and consistent cash flow. In Q1 2025 alone, the company generated Ps. 1.9 billion in cash from operating activities.³¹ This strong internal cash generation is a critical asset, enabling OMAB to fund its extensive capital expenditure program while simultaneously rewarding shareholders.

The company maintains a disciplined and conservative capital structure. As of the end of Q1 2025, total debt stood at Ps. 11.3 billion. This resulted in a net debt to last-twelve-months (LTM) adjusted EBITDA ratio of just 1.0x.³¹ For a capital-intensive infrastructure business with highly predictable revenue streams, this represents a very low level of leverage. This financial prudence provides OMAB with a significant “war chest” and the flexibility to pursue strategic initiatives, withstand economic downturns, and access capital markets on favorable terms. The company’s liquidity position is also robust, with a cash balance of Ps. 2.3 billion at the end of March 2025.³¹

Growth Drivers and Outlook

The outlook for OMAB is supported by several well-defined growth drivers.

• Passenger Traffic Growth: Continued expansion is anticipated, fueled by the ongoing recovery and growth in both domestic and international travel. The addition of new U.S. routes by Mexican airlines post-Category 1 upgrade is expected to be a significant contributor, alongside the organic growth of LCCs within Mexico.³¹
• Capital Expenditure Program: OMAB is in the midst of a significant investment cycle as part of its 2021-2025 MDP. Capital expenditures totaled Ps. 3.6 billion in 2023, with a further Ps. 502 million deployed in Q1 2025.³¹ These investments, particularly the major expansion projects at Monterrey airport, are designed to increase capacity and enhance service levels, paving the way for future traffic growth and higher revenue generation.²⁷
• Non-Aeronautical Expansion: Management continues to prioritize the growth of its high-margin non-aeronautical businesses. This includes optimizing the commercial mix within terminals (retail, F&B, VIP lounges) and, crucially, expanding its industrial park and cargo facilities at Monterrey to further capitalize on the nearshoring trend.²⁷

Metric (Amounts in thousands of MXN)	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Total Revenues	5,367,466	8,720,010	11,935,000	14,460,000	15,070,000
Aeronautical Revenues	2,942,558	5,277,728	7,055,543	8,960,000	N/A
Non-Aeronautical Revenues	1,171,039	1,653,379	2,230,000	2,630,000	N/A
Adjusted EBITDA	N/A	5,110,000	7,088,000	9,057,000	N/A
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	N/A	73.7%	76.3%	78.4%	N/A
Consolidated Net Income	1,097,879	2,863,630	3,901,000	5,000,000	4,930,000
Total Passengers (thousands)	11,063	18,025	23,221	26,800	N/A
Cash from Operations	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Capital Expenditures	1,401,483	1,910,541	3,277,000	3,611,000	N/A
Dividends Paid	N/A	N/A	6,616,000	2,300,000	4,250,000
Total Debt	N/A	4,996,622	N/A	N/A	N/A
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	N/A	N/A	1.0x	0.9x	N/A
Note: Data sourced from company 20-F filings and earnings reports. 2024 Revenue and Earnings are preliminary full-year figures. Some historical data points (e.g., Adjusted EBITDA for 2020) may not be directly comparable due to reporting changes. Data for 2024 is incomplete pending full annual report release. 9

Management Quality and Capital Allocation Strategy

Assessing the Track Record of CEO Ricardo Dueñas Espriu

Ricardo Dueñas Espriu has served as Chief Executive Officer of OMAB since November 2018, providing a tenure of over six years that allows for a robust assessment of his leadership and strategic direction.³⁸ His professional background is exceptionally well-suited for the role, combining deep experience in large-scale infrastructure projects with sophisticated financial expertise. Prior to joining OMAB, Mr. Dueñas was the Chief Financial Officer for the development of the new Mexico City airport (GACM), where he was responsible for securing over USD 8 billion in financing.⁴⁰ This experience, complemented by his time in JP Morgan’s emerging markets investment banking division in London, provides him with a strong command of capital markets, project finance, and stakeholder management.³⁸

Under Mr. Dueñas’s leadership, OMAB has successfully navigated the severe industry downturn of the COVID-19 pandemic and emerged to deliver record levels of passenger traffic, revenue, and profitability.²⁷ His tenure has been marked by a clear strategic focus on enhancing non-aeronautical revenues and leveraging the company’s geographic footprint to capitalize on the nearshoring trend. The aggressive and successful expansion of the industrial park at Monterrey airport is a direct testament to this strategic foresight.³¹ Furthermore, the company has maintained its operational and financial discipline, consistently delivering high EBITDA margins and strengthening its balance sheet. This track record of sound operational management and strategic value creation instills confidence in the current leadership’s ability to guide the company through its next phase of growth.

A Disciplined Approach to Capital Deployment

OMAB’s capital allocation strategy is characterized by a clear, disciplined, and investor-friendly framework that balances the need for substantial reinvestment with a commitment to robust shareholder returns. Management has explicitly stated that its policy is to fund its committed capital expenditures under the MDP and other strategic investments, and then distribute as much of the remaining free cash flow as possible to shareholders in the form of dividends.³¹

This commitment is evidenced by the company’s dividend history. In 2023, OMAB distributed Ps. 9.61 per share.³⁶ More recently, at the April 2025 Annual Shareholders’ Meeting, a substantial cash dividend payment of Ps. 4.5 billion was approved, reinforcing this shareholder-centric approach.³¹ This policy provides investors with a degree of predictability regarding cash returns and makes the stock attractive to income-oriented portfolios.

The other side of the capital allocation equation is reinvestment in the business. OMAB is currently in a heavy capital expenditure cycle, with investments directed toward expanding terminal capacity, upgrading airfield infrastructure, and enhancing commercial areas. The high returns generated from past investments, particularly in the non-aeronautical segment, suggest that management has been effective in deploying capital into value-accretive projects.

Corporate Governance and Alignment with VINCI Airports

OMAB’s corporate governance structure has been significantly enhanced by its partnership with VINCI Airports, which became a strategic partner in December 2022.¹⁸ As the world’s leading private airport operator, VINCI brings a wealth of global experience, operational best practices, and a sophisticated approach to governance and risk management. This relationship is a material positive for OMAB, providing access to a global knowledge base that can be leveraged to optimize everything from route development negotiations with airlines to the layout and tenant mix of its commercial spaces.

The company’s Board of Directors has an average tenure of 2.7 years, indicating a period of renewal.³⁹ While a shorter tenure can sometimes suggest a lack of experience, in this context, it likely reflects the influence of the new strategic partnership with VINCI, which has probably led to a refreshment of the board to align with global standards and strategic priorities. The presence of a world-class operator like VINCI provides an additional layer of oversight and strategic guidance, which should be viewed favorably by minority shareholders.

Comprehensive Risk Assessment

A thorough investment analysis requires a rigorous examination of the potential risks that could impair long-term value creation. For OMAB, these risks span regulatory, macroeconomic, operational, and financial domains.

• Regulatory and Political Risks: This represents the most significant and least predictable risk for OMAB and its peers. The Mexican government holds ultimate authority over the concession agreements. The unilateral increase of the concession fee from 5% to 9% in October 2023 serves as a stark reminder of this risk.⁹ Future adverse actions could include further changes to the tariff-setting formula, the imposition of additional taxes or fees, or unfavorable terms during the negotiation of the next five-year Master Development Plan. Such actions could directly and materially impact OMAB’s revenue and profitability, and the perceived risk of such interventions can lead to a persistent valuation discount for the entire sector.
• Macroeconomic and Cyclical Sensitivity: Airport traffic is inherently linked to the health of the broader economy. A recession in Mexico or the United States—its most important international market—would lead to a decline in both business and leisure travel, directly reducing passenger volumes and aeronautical revenues.⁹ While OMAB’s focus on industrial hubs provides some resilience through the nearshoring trend, a significant economic downturn would inevitably curtail business travel and cargo volumes.
• Execution Risk on Capital Projects: OMAB is undertaking a substantial capital expenditure program to expand capacity and modernize its facilities.³¹ Large-scale construction projects are subject to risks of cost overruns, construction delays, and potential operational disruptions. A failure to execute these projects on time and on budget could delay the realization of expected revenue growth and negatively impact returns on invested capital.
• Currency Exposure (MXN/USD): OMAB’s revenues are generated almost entirely in Mexican Pesos (MXN), but a portion of its capital expenditures and debt may be denominated in U.S. Dollars (USD). A sharp and sustained depreciation of the MXN against the USD would increase the cost of imported equipment and materials for its construction projects and raise the cost of servicing any USD-denominated debt, thereby compressing profit margins.⁴²
• Airport and Airline Concentration: The company’s financial performance is heavily dependent on its largest asset, Monterrey International Airport. Any event that disproportionately affects the economy of the Monterrey region—such as a localized industrial downturn or security issues—would have a material impact on OMAB’s overall results.²⁷ Additionally, the company’s growth is linked to the financial health and network strategies of a few key airlines, particularly the dominant Mexican LCCs, Volaris and VivaAerobus.⁴⁴ Any financial distress or strategic shift by these major airline partners could adversely affect traffic volumes.
• Force Majeure and External Shocks: The airport industry is vulnerable to external events beyond management’s control. These include global pandemics, as demonstrated in 2020, which can lead to severe and prolonged travel restrictions. Natural disasters, such as the impact of Hurricane Otis on the Acapulco airport, can cause significant physical damage and long-term disruption to a specific destination.²⁸ Geopolitical events and security concerns can also abruptly alter travel patterns.
• Cybersecurity Risk: As airport operations become increasingly digitized, they are more exposed to cybersecurity threats. OMAB recently reported a cybersecurity incident, which highlights the operational and reputational risks associated with data breaches or system disruptions.²⁸ A significant breach could lead to financial losses, regulatory fines, and a loss of confidence from passengers and airline partners.

Valuation Analysis

The valuation of Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte is approached through a multi-faceted framework designed to establish a range of potential intrinsic values under various assumptions. This analysis relies on a comparison with its direct peers and a detailed discounted cash flow model, providing a quantitative basis for assessing the company’s current market price.

Comparable Company Analysis

The most relevant peers for OMAB are the other two publicly-listed Mexican airport operators, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR) and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP). These companies operate under the same regulatory framework and are exposed to similar macroeconomic trends, making for a direct and meaningful comparison.

Historically, OMAB has sometimes traded at a valuation discount to its peers, particularly on an EV/EBITDA basis.⁴⁶ This discount could be attributed to its smaller scale or its higher concentration in business and domestic travel relative to the high-growth international tourism markets of Cancún (ASUR) and Los Cabos (GAP). However, the ongoing nearshoring trend provides a unique and powerful growth catalyst for OMAB that may not be fully reflected in historical valuation multiples. The analysis will compare the companies based on the latest available financial data to determine the current relative valuation landscape.

Metric	OMAB	ASUR	GAP	Industry Context
Market Cap (USD)	~$5.44 B	~$9.4 B	~$11.6 B	OMAB is the smallest of the three major Mexican operators.
Enterprise Value (USD)	~$5.33 B	~$8.62 B	~$12.5 B	Reflects market cap plus net debt.
LTM Revenue (USD)	~$728 M	~$1.53 B	~$1.74 B	ASUR and GAP are larger in terms of revenue generation.
LTM Adj. EBITDA (USD)	~$510 M	~$960 M	~$1.17 B	All three operators exhibit very high profitability.
Net Debt (USD)	~($0.11 B)	~($0.78 B)	~$0.9 B	OMAB and ASUR have net cash positions, indicating strong balance sheets.
EV / LTM EBITDA	~10.5x	~9.0x	~10.7x	Multiples are relatively tight, suggesting market sees similar risk/growth profiles.
P / E (TTM)	~21.6x	~14.8x	~24.4x	P/E multiples show more dispersion, potentially due to different tax rates or non-cash charges.
Dividend Yield (Fwd)	~3.56%	~13.3%	~4.84%	ASUR’s exceptionally high yield may reflect a one-time special dividend or market concerns.
Note: Data as of mid-2025, sourced from market data providers and company reports. Figures are approximate and subject to market fluctuations. LTM = Last Twelve Months. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months. Fwd = Forward. 9

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Framework

A DCF analysis provides an estimate of intrinsic value based on the present value of a company’s future free cash flows. For a stable, cash-generative infrastructure asset like OMAB, this is a primary valuation methodology.

Key Assumptions:

• Forecast Period: A 10-year forecast horizon is used to fully capture the current 2021-2025 MDP investment cycle and the initial years of the subsequent cycle.
• Revenue Growth: Projections are driven by a mid-single-digit passenger traffic growth assumption (4-6% per annum), reflecting both macroeconomic growth and the tailwinds from nearshoring and new route development. Non-aeronautical revenues are projected to grow at a faster rate (8-12%) as the company continues to execute its commercial and diversification strategy.
• Profitability: Adjusted EBITDA margins are forecast to remain robust, in the 72-76% range, slightly moderating from the peak levels of 2023 as operating costs normalize and the company invests in service quality.
• Capital Expenditures: Capex is modeled based on the company’s publicly disclosed commitments under the current MDP, followed by a normalized level of investment as a percentage of revenue in the later years of the forecast.
• Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC): The discount rate is a critical assumption. A baseline WACC is calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model, incorporating a specific country risk premium for Mexico. This rate will be sensitized to reflect the heightened regulatory risk environment. A range of 9.5% to 11.0% is appropriate for scenario analysis.
• Terminal Value: The value of the business beyond the explicit forecast period is calculated using a perpetual growth rate of 2.5%, reflecting long-term nominal GDP growth. This is cross-checked with an exit multiple (EV/EBITDA) based on the historical trading range of mature airport operators.

Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

A single point estimate from a DCF model can be misleading. Therefore, the valuation is presented as a range based on different scenarios, with a sensitivity analysis to highlight the key value drivers.

• Base Case: Assumes passenger traffic growth in line with long-term industry forecasts (around 5%), moderate success in non-aeronautical expansion, and a stable regulatory environment post-2023.
• Bull Case: Models a more aggressive passenger growth scenario (7-8%) driven by an accelerated nearshoring boom. It assumes continued margin expansion from non-aeronautical initiatives and a favorable outcome in the next MDP negotiation, leading to a lower perceived risk and a lower WACC.
• Bear Case: Incorporates a macroeconomic slowdown or recession, leading to low or negative passenger traffic growth (0-2%). This scenario also models another adverse regulatory action, such as a further increase in concession fees, which would be reflected in lower long-term margins and a higher WACC.

The following sensitivity matrix illustrates the range of implied equity values per share based on changes in the two most critical long-term assumptions: the WACC and the perpetual growth rate.

WACC	2.0%	2.5% (Base)	3.0%	3.5%
9.5%	High	High	Very High	Very High
10.0%	Medium-High	High	High	Very High
10.5% (Base)	Medium	Medium-High	High	High
11.0%	Low-Medium	Medium	Medium-High	High
11.5%	Low	Low-Medium	Medium	Medium-High
Note: The table shows the directional impact on valuation. “Low” to “Very High” represent the relative implied equity value per share derived from the DCF model under each combination of assumptions.

Investment Thesis Synthesis

The Bull Case: What Needs to Go Right

For the investment thesis to outperform, several key factors must align, capitalizing on the company’s strategic positioning and operational strengths.

1. Accelerated Nearshoring Impact: The primary catalyst is an acceleration of the nearshoring trend beyond current expectations. This would manifest in sustained, high-single-digit or even low-double-digit growth in passenger traffic and, more importantly, cargo volumes at OMAB’s northern industrial airports. A faster-than-anticipated expansion of the Monterrey industrial park would provide a significant high-margin revenue surprise.
2. Flawless Capex Execution: Successful and timely completion of the major expansion projects, particularly at Monterrey, is crucial. If these projects are delivered on budget and lead to immediate capacity absorption and enhanced commercial opportunities, the return on invested capital will be highly accretive.
3. Non-Aeronautical Outperformance: The bull case assumes that management continues to innovate and outperform in the non-aeronautical segment. This would involve not just growing the industrial park but also increasing commercial revenue per passenger at a rate that significantly outpaces inflation, leading to sustained EBITDA margin expansion.
4. Stable and Favorable Regulatory Environment: A critical component of the bull case is a period of regulatory stability. A favorable outcome in the next MDP negotiation (for the 2026-2030 period) that reaffirms the existing framework without further negative adjustments would reduce the perceived political risk, potentially leading to a re-rating (i.e., a higher valuation multiple) for the stock.
5. Enhanced Shareholder Returns: Stronger-than-expected free cash flow generation, resulting from the factors above, would enable OMAB to increase its dividend payments at a faster rate, attracting a broader base of income-focused investors and driving demand for the shares.

The Bear Case: Key Factors That Could Impair Value

Conversely, a number of factors could lead to underperformance and the impairment of long-term value.

1. Macroeconomic Hard Landing: The most significant external threat is a severe recession in the United States and/or Mexico. This would curtail business investment, slow the nearshoring trend, and depress demand for both business and leisure travel, leading to flat or declining passenger traffic and a sharp fall in revenues.
2. Adverse Regulatory Intervention: The primary idiosyncratic risk remains political. The introduction of further negative regulatory changes by the Mexican government would severely damage investor confidence and profitability. This could take the form of another increase in concession fees, the imposition of direct price controls on passenger fees (TUA), or punitive terms in the next MDP negotiation.
3. Competitive or External Shocks: While direct competition is low, unforeseen events could disrupt traffic. This could include a significant financial failure of a key airline partner (e.g., a major LCC), a resurgence of security problems in northern Mexico that deters business travel and investment, or another global shock akin to a pandemic that grounds air travel.
4. Sustained Peso Depreciation: A prolonged and significant weakening of the Mexican Peso against the U.S. Dollar would negatively impact financials by increasing the cost of USD-denominated capital expenditures and debt service, thereby compressing margins and reducing net income.
5. Cost Control Failures: A failure to manage operating costs effectively, particularly labor and maintenance expenses, in an inflationary environment could lead to the erosion of OMAB’s best-in-class EBITDA margins, even if revenue growth remains intact.

Concluding Framework for Monitoring

To effectively track the evolution of the investment thesis, investors should focus on a concise set of key performance indicators and qualitative developments. Ongoing monitoring of these variables will provide early signals as to whether the bull or bear case is unfolding.

Quantitative Variables to Monitor:

• Monthly Passenger Traffic Reports: Pay close attention to the breakdown between domestic and international traffic, and the performance of Monterrey (MTY) versus the rest of the portfolio.
• Quarterly Financials: Track the growth rate of non-aeronautical revenue per passenger and the revenue from diversification activities (especially industrial services).
• EBITDA Margins: Monitor for any signs of sustained margin compression.
• Capital Expenditures: Compare quarterly capex deployment against the company’s annual guidance and MDP commitments.
• Leverage: Track the Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA ratio to ensure it remains within a conservative range.

Qualitative Factors to Watch:

• Regulatory Announcements: Any statements or policy changes from the Mexican Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications and Transport (SICT) or the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC) regarding airport concessions should be considered highly material.
• New Route Announcements: Track new route additions by major airlines (Volaris, VivaAerobus, Aeroméxico), particularly new international routes to the U.S. from OMAB airports.
• Nearshoring Data: Monitor foreign direct investment (FDI) figures into Mexico, particularly into the northern states, as a leading indicator of future industrial and business travel demand.
• Management Commentary: Pay close attention to management’s discussion and analysis in quarterly earnings calls, specifically regarding the progress of major capital projects, the outlook for non-aeronautical businesses, and their posture on future capital allocation and dividends.

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