Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA), a leading low-price, high-volume retailer of motor fuel and convenience merchandise. The company’s business model is fundamentally anchored to its long-standing, strategic relationship with Walmart, which provides a significant and durable competitive advantage through consistent customer traffic. This analysis reveals a company in the midst of a strategic evolution, transitioning from a fuel-centric, kiosk-based model to a more robust convenience offering with larger, more profitable store formats.

MUSA’s core strengths are rooted in its exceptionally efficient, low-cost operating model, which enables a highly competitive pricing strategy and provides resilience during periods of fuel margin compression. This operational discipline, combined with the symbiotic Walmart partnership, has fueled strong and consistent free cash flow generation. Management has demonstrated a rigorous and shareholder-friendly approach to capital allocation, deploying this cash flow toward high-return organic growth and one of the most aggressive, value-accretive share repurchase programs in the retail sector. This has resulted in a dramatic reduction in shares outstanding and has been a primary driver of per-share value creation.

However, the investment thesis is not without significant risks. The company’s deep-seated dependency on its relationship with Walmart creates a material concentration risk. Furthermore, MUSA’s earnings are subject to the inherent volatility of fuel margins, which can introduce unpredictability into its financial performance. The most significant long-term challenge is the secular headwind of the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs), which poses a direct threat to the company’s core revenue stream.

In response to these industry shifts, MUSA is executing a clear strategic pivot. The 2021 acquisition of QuickChek and the ongoing “Raze & Rebuild” program are central to this transformation, aimed at capturing a greater share of higher-margin merchandise and foodservice sales. These initiatives are critical for diversifying the company’s profit base away from fuel and aligning its offering with the primary growth drivers of the modern convenience retail industry.

From a valuation perspective, MUSA is often assessed relative to its historical trading multiples and its peers in the convenience and fuel retail sector. The company’s current valuation appears to reflect a balance between its highly efficient, cash-generative operations and the significant secular risks it faces. The market’s perception of management’s ability to successfully navigate the industry’s long-term transition will be a key determinant of future value.

Company Overview & Business Model

Core Business Operations: A Tale of Two Segments

Murphy USA’s business model is structured around two primary, yet economically distinct, revenue streams: Petroleum Product Sales and Merchandise Sales. While fuel sales constitute the vast majority of the company’s top-line revenue, the merchandise segment is the disproportionate driver of gross profit, a dynamic that is central to understanding the company’s operational strategy and profitability.

For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023, MUSA reported total operating revenues of $21.5 billion.¹ This figure represented a decrease from $23.4 billion in 2022, a decline attributable not to lower volumes but to a decrease in the average retail price of gasoline, underscoring the revenue stream’s sensitivity to commodity price fluctuations.¹

Petroleum Product Sales: This segment is the primary generator of customer traffic and revenue. In 2023, petroleum product sales amounted to $17.1 billion, accounting for approximately 79.4% of total operating revenues.¹ However, the high-volume nature of this business is paired with thin margins. The gross profit from fuel sales in 2023 was $1,174.7 million, derived from the difference between sales and the $15,929.7 million cost of goods sold, resulting in a gross margin of approximately 6.9%.¹ This illustrates the fundamental characteristic of the fuel business: it is a traffic driver designed to bring customers to the site, with profitability heavily dependent on volume and per-gallon margin, known as cents per gallon (cpg).

Merchandise Sales: This segment is the company’s profit engine. In 2023, merchandise sales contributed $4.1 billion, or 19.0% of total revenue.¹ Despite its smaller revenue footprint, this segment generated a gross profit of $803.4 million, reflecting a significantly healthier gross margin of 19.7%.¹ The profitability of this segment is critical, as the cash flow it generates helps to cover a substantial portion of the store’s operating expenses, thereby lowering the required fuel margin to achieve overall store profitability—a concept central to MUSA’s low-cost strategy.

Ancillary Services and Revenues: A third component, categorized under “Other operating revenues,” contributed $335.7 million in 2023.¹ This category includes various income streams, most notably the sale of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). RINs are credits generated from blending renewable fuels (like ethanol) into transportation fuel, which can be sold to refiners and importers to meet regulatory obligations. The value of RINs can be highly volatile, creating a variable but at times significant source of additional income. This category also includes lottery commissions and other ancillary services.

Store Format & Location Strategy: The Walmart Ecosystem and Beyond

As of the end of 2023, Murphy USA operated a network of 1,733 stores spanning 27 states, primarily concentrated in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest regions of the United States.¹ This network is comprised of 1,577 Murphy-branded locations (Murphy USA® and Murphy Express®) and 156 QuickChek® stores.¹

The company’s historical and foundational location strategy has been to situate its stores in close proximity to Walmart Supercenters. This approach provides a powerful and sustainable competitive advantage by leveraging the immense customer traffic generated by one of the world’s largest retailers, effectively lowering customer acquisition costs and targeting a shared, value-conscious consumer demographic.⁴

A critical element of MUSA’s current strategy is a deliberate and ongoing evolution of its store formats. The company is actively transitioning away from its legacy network of small-format kiosks. At the time of its spin-off in 2013, kiosks constituted nearly 70% of the network; by 2023, this figure had been reduced to approximately 40%.⁶ This transformation is being executed through two primary initiatives:

1. New Store Builds: New construction is increasingly focused on larger formats, including 1,400-square-foot Murphy USA stores and 2,800-square-foot Murphy Express locations.⁷ These larger footprints are essential for accommodating a wider array of higher-margin merchandise, including beverages, snacks, and a nascent foodservice offering. The 2021 acquisition of QuickChek introduced an even larger format, with stores averaging over 5,400 square feet, which are designed around a comprehensive fresh food and beverage program.⁶
2. Raze & Rebuild Program: This capital-efficient program targets high-performing kiosk locations at the end of their useful life and replaces them with modern 1,400-square-foot stores. This initiative allows MUSA to upgrade its existing, high-traffic real estate to a more profitable format that drives higher merchandise sales and contribution. The company planned to complete up to 40 such projects in 2024, demonstrating its commitment to modernizing the existing network.⁶

This strategic shift in store format is fundamental to the company’s future. By increasing the average store size, MUSA is building the physical capacity required to execute its strategy of diversifying its merchandise mix and capturing a greater share of in-store profit, thereby reducing its historical reliance on the fuel business.

The Walmart Partnership: A Symbiotic Lifeline

The strategic and complementary relationship with Walmart is the cornerstone of Murphy USA’s business model and its most defining competitive characteristic. A majority of the company’s stores are located on Walmart parking lots, a direct legacy of MUSA’s origin as the retail fuel arm of Murphy Oil and its subsequent spin-off in 2013.⁵

This partnership is governed by long-term agreements that define the operational relationship. While many sites are situated on land owned by MUSA, a portion of the network operates under ground lease arrangements with Walmart. As of year-end 2023, 39 stores were on leased land, and an additional 107 were on properties where both the land and building were leased.¹ The partnership also includes collaborative marketing efforts, such as a fuel discount program that enhances the value proposition for the shared customer base of both companies.⁴

The primary benefit of this arrangement is the consistent and high volume of customer traffic driven by Walmart’s retail dominance. This provides MUSA with a structural cost advantage over competitors who must invest more heavily in marketing and prime real estate to attract customers. The alignment with Walmart’s value-focused brand reinforces MUSA’s own low-price strategy, creating a powerful and symbiotic ecosystem.⁴

However, this deep integration also represents the company’s most significant concentration risk. Any material change in the strategic relationship, a decision by Walmart to alter its fuel strategy, or a significant decline in traffic to Walmart’s physical stores could have a disproportionately negative impact on Murphy USA’s operations and financial results. This dependency is a critical factor for investors to consider and likely acts as a governor on the company’s valuation multiple.

Supply Chain & Operations: The Engine of Efficiency

A core tenet of Murphy USA’s strategy is to “Sustain Cost Leadership Position”.⁷ This is achieved through a highly efficient, low-cost retail operating model that is a key competitive strength. The company’s standardized, smaller-footprint stores have historically required lower capital expenditures and have lower maintenance and utility costs compared to the larger formats typical of many competitors.⁴ According to company disclosures referencing industry data, MUSA operates at a fraction of the average monthly operating costs of top-quartile industry performers.⁴

This operational efficiency translates directly into a low “fuel breakeven” requirement. This metric represents the fuel margin (in cents per gallon) required to cover all store-level cash operating costs after accounting for merchandise gross profit. MUSA’s low breakeven point allows it to be highly competitive on fuel pricing while maintaining profitability, and provides a crucial buffer to withstand periods of intense competition or margin compression better than less efficient operators.⁴

The company’s operational prowess extends to its supply chain. MUSA possesses distinctive capabilities in fuel supply, including ownership of product distribution terminals and advantaged supply agreements. This infrastructure provides greater control over supply and costs, and allows the company to “Create Advantage from Market Volatility,” a stated pillar of its strategy.⁷ By effectively managing its fuel procurement and distribution, MUSA can often secure product at a lower cost than smaller competitors, further reinforcing its low-price value proposition.

Industry Dynamics & Competitive Landscape

Market Structure: A Fragmented and Evolving Industry

The U.S. convenience and fuel retailing industry is a vast and highly fragmented market. In 2023, total industry sales reached $859.8 billion, solidifying its position as a major segment of the U.S. retail landscape.¹⁰ The industry is characterized by a large number of small operators; of the more than 152,000 convenience stores operating in the U.S. in 2023, single-store operators accounted for approximately 63.1% of the total count.¹²

In a notable contrast to many other brick-and-mortar retail sectors that are experiencing consolidation and store count reduction, the convenience store industry has continued to grow. The total number of stores increased by 1.5% in 2023, the second consecutive year of growth.¹⁰ This expansion, occurring while channels like drug stores and supermarkets are shrinking, highlights the enduring consumer demand for convenience.¹³

This high degree of fragmentation, dominated by small, independent operators, creates a fertile environment for consolidation. Well-capitalized and operationally sophisticated companies like Murphy USA, Casey’s General Stores, and Alimentation Couche-Tard are well-positioned to gain market share, both organically and through strategic acquisitions of smaller chains.

The Great Profit Shift: Fuel vs. Merchandise

A defining characteristic of the modern convenience store industry is the critical divergence between revenue sources and profit drivers. While fuel sales remain the largest component of total industry revenue, their contribution to profitability has diminished significantly. In 2023, fuel sales accounted for 67.3% of total industry revenues but generated only 38.6% of total profits.¹⁰

Conversely, in-store sales have become the undisputed profit engine of the industry. Representing just 32.7% of total revenue in 2023, in-store merchandise generated a commanding 61.4% of the industry’s profits.¹⁰ This dynamic underscores the strategic imperative for all industry participants to enhance their in-store offerings.

Within the store, foodservice has emerged as the single most important category and the primary driver of growth and profitability. In 2023, foodservice—which includes prepared food, commissary items, and dispensed beverages—represented 26.9% of in-store sales but contributed an outsized 37.3% of in-store profits.¹⁰ The margins in this category are exceptionally attractive; overall foodservice margins averaged 51.34% in 2023, with the prepared food subcategory boasting margins of 55.59%.¹⁴ This stands in stark contrast to the much thinner margins of legacy categories like cigarettes, which are typically around 15%.¹⁵

This industry-wide profit shift has profound implications for Murphy USA. The company’s reported total merchandise margin of 19.7% in 2023, while healthy, is well below the levels achieved by competitors with a more developed foodservice offering.¹ This is largely due to MUSA’s historical concentration in the lower-margin tobacco category. This margin differential illuminates the strategic rationale behind the company’s recent moves. The acquisition of QuickChek, a recognized leader in fresh foodservice, and the capital-intensive shift toward larger store formats are not merely growth initiatives; they are essential strategic pivots. These actions are designed to rebalance the company’s merchandise mix, close the profitability gap with best-in-class operators, and align the business with the industry’s most powerful value creation trend. The success of this transformation is a central element of the long-term investment case for the company.

Competitive Positioning: A Field of Giants and Specialists

Murphy USA operates within a highly competitive landscape populated by global giants, strong regional players, and a vast number of independent operators. Its primary competitors employ distinct strategies and business models.

• Alimentation Couche-Tard (Circle K): A global powerhouse and a disciplined consolidator, Couche-Tard operates approximately 16,700 stores worldwide under brands including Circle K and Couche-Tard.¹⁶ In the U.S., the company has a market share of approximately 5%, highlighting the fragmented nature of the market and the significant runway that remains for further consolidation.¹⁷ Couche-Tard competes on a global scale with a focus on M&A, operational efficiency, and a balanced approach to both fuel and convenience offerings.
• Casey’s General Stores (CASY): A key publicly traded peer, Casey’s operated approximately 2,658 stores as of April 2024.¹⁸ Casey’s has a differentiated strategy centered on being the convenience and foodservice hub in smaller, rural communities. Approximately 72% of its stores are located in markets with populations of fewer than 20,000 people.¹⁸ Its brand is synonymous with prepared foods, particularly its made-from-scratch pizza program, which drives significant in-store traffic and contributes to its higher merchandise margins.
• 7-Eleven: Owned by the Japanese conglomerate Seven & i Holdings, 7-Eleven is the largest convenience store chain in the U.S. by store count.²⁰ Its business model is heavily reliant on franchising and is often more focused on the in-store convenience offering, with many locations operating without fuel pumps.

Murphy USA’s competitive position is historically rooted in its low-price fuel value proposition, amplified by its operational efficiency and strategic proximity to Walmart. As the company expands its in-store offerings and moves into larger formats, it is increasingly competing not just on fuel price but also on the quality and value of its merchandise and foodservice. This strategic evolution brings it into more direct competition with the food-forward model of Casey’s and the broad-based convenience offerings of Circle K.

Peer Comparison Matrix (Fiscal Year 2023 Data)

Metric	Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA)	Casey’s General Stores (CASY)¹	Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD)²
Total Stores (Year-End)	1,733	2,658	14,545 (Global)
Total Revenue	$21.5 B	$14.9 B	$69.3 B
Fuel Revenue %	79.4%	63.3%	73.7%
Merchandise Revenue %	19.0%	34.9%	25.3%
Fuel Gross Profit	$1,174.7 M	$1,116.7 M	$5,816.9 M
Merchandise Gross Profit	$803.4 M	$2,128.8 M	$6,105.4 M
Merchandise Gross Margin	19.7%	41.0%	34.8%
Same-Store Fuel Volume	-1.8%	+0.1%	-0.8% (U.S.)
Same-Store Merch. Sales	+3.5% (calc.)³	+4.4%	-0.1% (U.S.)

¹ Data for fiscal year ended April 30, 2024.¹⁸

² Data for fiscal year ended April 28, 2024.22

³ Calculated from per-store sales data in Q4 2023 release.2

Financial Performance & Growth History

Revenue and Profitability Trajectory

An analysis of Murphy USA’s financial performance over the past decade reveals a business that has become increasingly resilient and profitable, even as its top-line revenue exhibits significant volatility tied to commodity prices. Revenue peaked at over $23 billion in 2022 during a period of high gasoline prices, before declining to $21.5 billion in 2023 as prices moderated, despite an increase in the total volume of fuel sold.¹ This dynamic illustrates that top-line revenue is an unreliable indicator of the company’s underlying operational health.

A more insightful view is provided by the trend in gross profit. Total gross profit dollars have demonstrated a strong and consistent upward trajectory, growing from approximately $1.1 billion in 2014 to nearly $2.0 billion in 2023. This growth has been fueled by two primary factors: the steady and reliable expansion of the higher-margin merchandise business, and a structural increase in retail fuel margins, particularly in the period following the COVID-19 pandemic.

This expansion in gross profit, combined with disciplined cost management, has led to a significant improvement in profitability metrics. Adjusted EBITDA, a key measure of operating profitability, has more than doubled, increasing from $422.6 million in 2019 to $1,058.5 million in 2023.² This robust growth in underlying profitability, even as revenue fluctuates, points to an increasing resilience in the company’s business model and its ability to generate substantial cash flow across different commodity price environments.

Store Expansion and Productivity

Murphy USA has a long history of disciplined organic growth, consistently expanding its store network. The company has typically added between 20 and 40 new stores annually, a pace it now plans to accelerate toward a target of up to 50 new stores per year.⁶ This organic growth was significantly augmented in 2021 by the transformative acquisition of 156 QuickChek stores, which not only expanded the store count but also brought critical foodservice capabilities into the organization.⁸

The productivity of these new stores is a key indicator of the success of the company’s real estate and development strategy. Recent cohorts of new-to-industry stores have been performing exceptionally well, with stores built between 2021 and 2023 averaging fuel volumes nearly 20% higher than the overall network average in 2023.²⁵ Similarly, stores modernized through the “Raze & Rebuild” program have shown volume uplifts of approximately 27% for both fuel and merchandise compared to the network average.²⁵ These figures suggest that the company’s capital is being deployed into high-return projects.

Performance on a same-store basis has been more varied, reflecting broader industry trends and economic conditions. Same-store fuel volumes are sensitive to gasoline prices and consumer behavior, declining by 1.8% in 2023 after a period of strong post-pandemic recovery.² Same-store merchandise sales growth has been more consistent, supported by the rollout of the Murphy Drive Rewards loyalty program and other in-store initiatives.

Return Metrics and Cash Generation

Murphy USA’s business model is characterized by strong and consistent free cash flow generation. The combination of a low-cost operating structure, efficient working capital management, and growing profitability allows the company to produce substantial cash flow that funds both its organic growth and its significant shareholder return programs. This ability to consistently generate cash is a hallmark of the business and a foundational element of its capital allocation strategy. This cash generation supports strong returns on capital, with the company’s aggressive share repurchase program being a key driver of its high Return on Equity (ROE).

Historical Financial Summary (2014-2023)

(in millions, except per share data)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Total Operating Revenues	$21,529	$23,446	$17,361	$11,264	$14,035	$14,363	$12,827	$11,595	$12,699	$16,734
Total Gross Profit¹	$1,978	$2,087	$1,577	$1,354	$1,025	$1,014	$1,003	$964	$912	$1,057
Operating Income	$826	$968	$604	$547	$270	$264	$305	$293	$238	$359
Net Income	$557	$673	$397	$386	$155	$214	$245	$222	$138	$223
Adjusted EBITDA	$1,059	$1,191	$828	$723	$423	$412	$406	$400	$343	$446
Diluted EPS ($)	$25.49	$28.10	$14.92	$13.08	$4.86	$6.48	$6.78	$5.59	$3.14	$4.68
Diluted Shares Outstanding	21.1	22.1	25.3	27.9	30.5	32.3	34.1	37.9	41.7	45.7
Store Count (Year-End)	1,733	1,712	1,679	1,503	1,489	1,472	1,446	1,401	1,333	1,273

¹ Gross Profit calculated as (Petroleum Product Sales – Petroleum Product COGS) + (Merchandise Sales – Merchandise COGS).

Sources: 1

Recent Challenges & Industry Headwinds (2022-2024)

The period from 2022 through early 2024 was marked by significant macroeconomic volatility, including sharp swings in commodity prices, persistent inflation, and a challenging labor market. These factors had a profound and multifaceted impact on Murphy USA’s operating environment.

Fuel Price Volatility and Margin Dynamics

This period was characterized by extreme volatility in fuel prices, with retail gasoline prices reaching multi-year highs in 2022 before moderating through 2023 and into 2024. Management has consistently noted that MUSA’s business model performs well in high-price environments. During these times, consumers become more acutely price-sensitive, leading them to seek out value-oriented retailers like Murphy USA. This dynamic often results in market share gains for the company.³² Conversely, as prices fall, some of this market share is relinquished as a subset of consumers may prioritize locational convenience over achieving the absolute lowest price.³²

Despite this cyclicality, a key theme from management has been the emergence of a “structural” shift toward higher and more resilient retail fuel margins across the industry. This phenomenon is attributed to the rising breakeven costs faced by smaller, less efficient competitors. These marginal retailers, burdened by higher operating costs and often lower fuel and merchandise volumes, are forced to maintain higher street prices to remain profitable. This widens the competitive moat for highly efficient, high-volume operators like MUSA, allowing them to capture a healthier margin while still maintaining their low-price leadership.³⁴ For Q1 2024, MUSA reported a total fuel contribution of 24.8 cpg, down from 28.9 cpg in the prior-year quarter but still indicative of a margin environment that is structurally higher than pre-pandemic levels.³⁷

Inflation, Costs, and Consumer Behavior

Multi-decade high inflation presented both a headwind and a tailwind for Murphy USA. On the cost side, inflation exerted significant pressure. Store and other operating expenses on a per-store basis rose 5.4% in 2024, driven primarily by increased labor and maintenance costs.²⁶ Management has acknowledged that these inflationary pressures, particularly on wages, are “sticky” and have become embedded in the company’s structural cost base.³⁸

However, on the consumer side, this same inflationary environment reinforced MUSA’s core value proposition. As President and CEO Andrew Clyde stated during the peak of inflation in Q2 2022, “consumers need affordable every-day-low-prices on goods and services now more than ever”.⁴⁰ The pressure on household budgets drove more customers to seek value, benefiting MUSA’s traffic and market share. This was evident in Q1 2024 results, which highlighted the resilience of core fuel and tobacco categories, described as “non-discretionary purchases to a growing base of customers who continued to trade down for value”.³⁷ While this trend supports volumes in essential categories, it may also indicate that consumers are being more selective with their spending on higher-margin impulse items inside the store.

Labor Market Challenges

In line with the broader retail and service industries, Murphy USA has navigated a challenging labor market characterized by staffing shortages and significant wage inflation. The impact of this is a recurring theme in the company’s financial reports, with “employee related expenses” frequently cited as a primary driver of increased operating costs.²⁶ To remain competitive and ensure adequate staffing levels, the company has had to increase wages and benefits. In the summer of 2022, MUSA implemented a special incentive program to support employee engagement, a move that contributed to operating expenses exceeding initial guidance for that year.³⁸

Electric Vehicle (EV) Adoption: The Long-Term Threat

The most significant long-term challenge facing Murphy USA and the entire fuel retailing industry is the secular transition toward electric vehicles. While the immediate impact on fuel volumes remains minimal, the proliferation of EVs represents a fundamental threat to the company’s core business model, which is built around the sale of gasoline. Industry organizations like NACS have identified the “energy transition” as a major force that is compelling the industry to fundamentally rethink its offerings and value proposition.¹³

Murphy USA’s primary strategic response to this long-term headwind is the aggressive pivot toward a more robust in-store convenience and foodservice offering. The goal of this multi-year transformation is to evolve its locations from being primarily fuel stops into broader convenience destinations. By increasing the contribution of in-store sales to overall profitability, the company aims to make the fuel transaction less central to its business model over time. While the company is undoubtedly monitoring developments in EV charging, the available materials do not indicate that a large-scale rollout of charging infrastructure is a near-term capital allocation priority. This suggests that the company is currently focused on strengthening its non-fuel business as the primary defense against the long-term erosion of gasoline demand. The pace of this transition remains a key uncertainty, creating a race against time for MUSA to successfully transform its earnings base before EV penetration significantly impacts its core volumes.

Capital Allocation & Shareholder Returns

A Core Tenet: Balanced Capital Allocation

Murphy USA’s management team has consistently articulated a clear and disciplined “balanced capital allocation” strategy.²⁴ This framework prioritizes the use of the company’s substantial free cash flow to first fund high-return organic growth projects and business improvement initiatives. The remaining cash flow is then systematically returned to shareholders, with a strong and demonstrated preference for share repurchases, supplemented by a growing dividend. This approach has been a cornerstone of the company’s value creation strategy since its spin-off.

Share Repurchases: A Powerful Value Driver

The most prominent feature of MUSA’s capital allocation strategy is its aggressive and sustained share repurchase program. This is not a passive or intermittent activity but a central pillar of how the company creates per-share value for its investors. Since becoming an independent company in 2013, MUSA has repurchased more than 50% of its original shares outstanding, a remarkable reduction in its share count.⁴⁵

The impact of this strategy is clearly visible in the company’s financial statements. The number of diluted weighted-average shares outstanding has declined dramatically and consistently, falling from 45.7 million in 2014 to 21.1 million by the end of 2023.⁴⁶ This massive reduction in the share base acts as a powerful amplifier for earnings per share (EPS) growth, allowing strong operational performance to translate into even stronger per-share results.

Management’s commitment to this strategy is evidenced by its continuous authorization of large-scale buyback programs. For example, a $1 billion authorization initiated in 2021 was followed by a new, even larger authorization of up to $1.5 billion announced in 2023, which is set to be executed by December 31, 2028.⁴⁷ The company’s execution is swift; in the first quarter of 2024 alone, MUSA repurchased $86.9 million of its common stock.³⁷ This consistent and significant repurchase activity signals strong management confidence in the intrinsic value of the business and serves as a primary attraction for investors focused on shareholder yield.

Dividend Policy: A Growing but Secondary Priority

In a move to broaden its appeal to investors, Murphy USA initiated a quarterly dividend in the fourth quarter of 2020.²³ Since its inception, the dividend has grown consistently, with management often announcing small increases on a quarterly basis. For instance, the dividend was increased by 2.4% in March 2024 to $0.42 per share.³⁷

Despite this steady growth, the dividend remains a secondary component of the company’s capital return framework. The dividend payout ratio is maintained at a very low level, typically below 10% of earnings, resulting in a modest dividend yield that is often less than 1%.⁵⁰ This conservative dividend policy is intentional. It establishes a regular cash return for shareholders, signaling financial stability and discipline, while preserving the vast majority of the company’s free cash flow for what management evidently views as higher-impact uses: organic growth investments and the more aggressive share repurchase program.

Capital Expenditures: Fueling Organic Growth

Capital expenditures are directed primarily toward the company’s highest strategic priority: growing and modernizing its store network. Capital spending has been on an upward trend, increasing from $277.5 million in 2021 to $344.1 million in 2023, with guidance suggesting a further increase to between $450 million and $500 million in 2025.¹

The allocation of this capital clearly reflects the company’s growth strategy. In 2023, $232.0 million, or approximately 67% of the total, was dedicated to the construction of new company stores. An additional $51.8 million was invested in “sustaining capital,” which includes store improvements and the “Raze & Rebuild” program.¹ This heavy investment in growth and modernization underscores management’s commitment to expanding the network with larger, more profitable formats.

Capital Allocation Summary (2019-2023)

(in millions, except share count)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Capital Expenditures	$344.1	$305.8	$277.5	$227.1	$214.6
Cash Dividends Paid	$33.4	$29.9	$26.8	$7.0	$0.0
Share Repurchases ($)	$336.2	$638.1	$574.6	$399.6	$144.1
Diluted Shares Outstanding	21.1	22.1	25.3	27.9	30.5

Sources: ¹

Growth Opportunities & Strategic Initiatives

Murphy USA’s growth strategy is multifaceted, focusing on expanding its physical footprint, enhancing the productivity of its existing stores, and strategically evolving its product and service offerings to align with long-term industry trends.

Store Expansion and Modernization

The primary engine of Murphy USA’s growth remains its organic new store development program. The company has laid out a clear plan to accelerate its pace of new builds, with a target of opening up to 50 new stores annually.⁶ Critically, this expansion is focused on the company’s larger, 2,800-square-foot “Murphy Express” format, which is better equipped to handle a more extensive and profitable merchandise and foodservice offering. The strong performance of recent new store cohorts, which are generating fuel volumes significantly above the network average, provides evidence of a successful site selection process and suggests that these investments are yielding high returns.²⁵

Complementing the new build program is the “Raze & Rebuild” initiative. This program is a capital-efficient method of modernizing the existing store base by replacing outdated, end-of-life kiosks with 1,400-square-foot stores. This allows the company to upgrade some of its best-performing locations, leveraging existing high traffic to drive incremental, high-margin merchandise sales from an expanded offering.⁶

Merchandise and Foodservice Strategy

A central pillar of the company’s long-term strategy is to “Diversify Merchandise Mix”.⁷ This involves a deliberate effort to reduce the historical reliance on the lower-margin tobacco category and increase the sales contribution from higher-margin products like packaged beverages, snacks, and foodservice.

The 2021 acquisition of QuickChek was a pivotal and strategic move to accelerate this transition. QuickChek is a recognized leader in the convenience foodservice space, and the acquisition provided Murphy USA with a best-in-class operational platform, a proven product portfolio, and valuable institutional expertise.⁸ The company’s stated goal is to leverage these capabilities, applying learnings and best practices from QuickChek to enhance the food and beverage offerings across the legacy Murphy USA network.

The Murphy Drive Rewards (MDR) loyalty program is a key enabler of this merchandise strategy. With a large and growing member base, the program serves as a powerful tool for driving customer traffic, increasing visit frequency, and lifting average basket size through targeted promotions and personalized offers.²⁴ It also provides a rich source of customer data that can be used to optimize pricing, promotions, and product assortment. In late 2023, the company relaunched the QuickChek Rewards program, updating it to better align with the successful architecture of the MDR program and create a more cohesive digital customer experience across both brands.²⁴

Technology and Productivity Investments

To support its low-price value proposition, Murphy USA is relentlessly focused on maintaining its cost leadership position. A key current initiative is a company-wide “Store Productivity Excellence” campaign aimed at improving operational efficiency at the store level.²⁴ The company is also making significant investments in technology and digital capabilities, which are reflected in its guidance for both capital expenditures and selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses.²⁶ These investments are intended to enhance the customer experience, improve supply chain and inventory management, and further streamline store operations, thereby protecting the company’s low-cost advantage.

Alternative Fuel Services

The transition to electric vehicles represents both a long-term threat and a potential future opportunity. While the company’s primary strategic response is to strengthen its non-fuel business, it is also in the early stages of exploring alternative fuel services. The available public disclosures lack specific details regarding Murphy USA’s EV charging strategy, the number of charging stations deployed, or near-term capital allocation plans for this area. This suggests that while the company is monitoring the landscape, EV charging is not yet a material part of its growth or investment strategy. This remains an area of uncertainty and a potential avenue for future growth and investment as the market evolves.

Valuation Analysis

The valuation of Murphy USA requires a multifaceted approach, considering its historical performance, its position relative to peers, and the unique characteristics of its business model, including its strong cash flow generation and the significant secular risks it faces.

Current and Historical Valuation Metrics

An analysis of MUSA’s valuation multiples relative to its own history provides context for its current market standing. By comparing its current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratios to their 5- and 10-year averages, an investor can assess whether the stock is trading at a premium or a discount to its typical valuation range. These historical ranges often reflect varying market conditions, including different levels of fuel margins and economic sentiment, providing a useful benchmark for the current valuation.

Peer Comparison

A comparison of MUSA’s valuation with its closest peers, Casey’s General Stores (CASY) and Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD), reveals differences in how the market values their respective business models. MUSA has historically traded at a valuation multiple that is often at a discount to Casey’s. This valuation gap can be attributed to several factors. Casey’s boasts a significantly higher merchandise gross margin, driven by its successful high-margin prepared food business, which the market may view as a more stable and higher-quality source of earnings compared to MUSA’s more fuel-dependent profit stream.

However, an argument can be made that MUSA’s superior capital efficiency, as evidenced by its historically higher return on invested capital (ROIC), and its more aggressive and consistent share repurchase program, which drives faster EPS growth, warrant a valuation that is more in line with its peers. The valuation differential reflects the market’s ongoing debate, weighing Casey’s higher-margin business model against MUSA’s operational efficiency and shareholder-friendly capital allocation.

Free Cash Flow Yield

Given Murphy USA’s strong and consistent ability to generate cash, the Free Cash Flow (FCF) Yield is a particularly relevant valuation metric. Calculated as the free cash flow per share divided by the current share price, this metric provides a measure of the company’s “owner’s earnings” yield. A high FCF yield can indicate that the company is generating substantial cash relative to its market valuation, which it can then use for growth investments, debt reduction, or shareholder returns. For a company like MUSA, where capital returns are a central part of the investment thesis, the FCF yield is a crucial indicator of its capacity to sustain its dividend and share repurchase programs.

Risk Factors & Investment Considerations

An investment in Murphy USA involves a number of significant risks and considerations that must be carefully evaluated. These range from company-specific dependencies to broad, secular industry trends.

Walmart Dependency

The most significant and immediate risk to Murphy USA’s business model is its deep-seated dependency on the strategic partnership with Walmart. As detailed in its 2023 10-K, the ability “to continue to maintain a good business relationship with Walmart” is a critical factor for the company’s success.⁵⁴ A significant portion of MUSA’s customer traffic is a direct result of its locations on Walmart properties. Any adverse change in this relationship—such as a decision by Walmart to partner with a different fuel retailer, develop its own fuel offering, or a material decline in traffic to Walmart’s physical stores—could have a severe and immediate negative impact on MUSA’s volumes, revenues, and profitability.

Fuel Margin Volatility

The company’s earnings are highly sensitive to the gross margin on its fuel sales. These margins are inherently volatile, influenced by a complex interplay of factors including crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices, regional supply and demand dynamics, and the intensity of local competition.⁷ While MUSA’s management has argued that industry margins have become structurally higher in recent years, a return to a more competitive, lower-margin environment would significantly compress the company’s profitability and cash flow. This volatility makes quarterly earnings difficult to predict and can lead to significant swings in the company’s stock price.

Secular Headwinds from EV Adoption

The long-term, global transition away from internal combustion engine vehicles toward electric vehicles poses a fundamental and potentially existential threat to Murphy USA’s core business. The company’s revenue and profit model is built around the high-volume sale of gasoline. A progressive decline in gasoline demand as EV penetration increases will erode this core business over time. The ultimate pace and scale of this transition remain a significant uncertainty, but it is the most critical long-term risk factor facing the company. The success of MUSA’s strategic pivot to a more convenience-focused business model will be paramount in mitigating this risk.

Economic Sensitivity

While a portion of Murphy USA’s sales, particularly fuel and tobacco, are relatively non-discretionary, the business is not immune to economic downturns. During a recession, reduced consumer discretionary spending could pressure sales of higher-margin in-store items like snacks and beverages. Furthermore, a significant increase in unemployment could lead to a reduction in vehicle miles traveled, negatively impacting fuel volumes.

Competitive Pressure

The convenience and fuel retailing industry is intensely competitive. Murphy USA faces formidable competition from a range of players, including large, well-capitalized global consolidators like Alimentation Couche-Tard, strong regional operators with differentiated offerings like Casey’s General Stores, and the thousands of independent store operators that make up the majority of the market.²⁰ This competitive pressure can limit pricing power and necessitate ongoing investment to maintain market share.

Management Quality & Corporate Governance

Management Track Record and Vision

Murphy USA is led by a long-tenured and experienced management team. President and CEO, R. Andrew Clyde, has held his position since the company’s spin-off from Murphy Oil in 2013, providing over a decade of consistent leadership and strategic direction.⁵⁵

The management team’s strategic vision has been remarkably clear and consistent over this period. The core strategy has revolved around leveraging the unique Walmart relationship, maintaining a position of cost leadership through operational excellence, and executing a disciplined pivot toward a more robust convenience and foodservice offering.⁴⁴ This vision has been paired with an unwavering commitment to a balanced capital allocation framework that prioritizes returning significant capital to shareholders.

The effectiveness of this management team can be quantitatively measured by its capital allocation track record. The decision to consistently and aggressively repurchase shares has been a primary driver of value creation for shareholders, resulting in a massive reduction in the share count and significant EPS accretion. The 2021 acquisition of QuickChek represents management’s most significant strategic bet on the future of the business, a clear and decisive move to accelerate the company’s evolution into a more formidable convenience player.

Corporate Governance

Murphy USA’s Board of Directors is composed of individuals with deep and relevant experience across the retail, finance, and energy sectors. The board includes former senior executives from prominent retail organizations such as 7-Eleven Inc. and Applebee’s International, Inc., as well as individuals with extensive experience in investment management and the oil and gas industry.⁵⁵ This breadth of experience provides a strong foundation for effective oversight of the company’s strategy and operations.

A review of the company’s most recent proxy statement indicates a commitment to standard corporate governance practices, including a majority-independent board and separate roles for the Chairman of the Board and the CEO.⁵⁶ The alignment of executive compensation with company performance is a key area of focus, with incentive structures designed to reward the achievement of key financial and strategic objectives.

Conclusion Framework

Investment Strengths

Murphy USA’s investment profile is defined by several key strengths. First is its advantaged, low-cost business model, which is fundamentally supported by a symbiotic, traffic-driving relationship with Walmart. This structure provides a durable competitive moat and enables a compelling low-price value proposition for consumers. Second, the company has a proven and highly effective capital allocation strategy, centered on an aggressive share repurchase program that has historically been a powerful driver of EPS growth and per-share value creation. Third, management is executing a clear strategic pivot toward higher-margin convenience and foodservice, a necessary evolution to align with industry trends and mitigate long-term risks. Finally, these elements combine to produce strong, consistent, and predictable free cash flow, which underpins the company’s ability to both invest in growth and reward shareholders.

Primary Concerns

The most significant risks and challenges facing the company are deeply intertwined with its business model. The foremost concern is the over-dependence on the Walmart partnership, which creates a significant concentration risk should that relationship ever change. Second is the inherent earnings volatility that stems from the company’s exposure to unpredictable and often volatile fuel margins. Third, and most critical for the long term, is the secular threat of EV adoption, which will progressively erode the company’s core fuel business over time. Finally, there is execution risk associated with the strategic shift into the highly competitive foodservice space, where MUSA is playing catch-up to more established competitors.

Valuation Assessment

Murphy USA’s valuation typically reflects the market’s attempt to balance its highly efficient and cash-generative current operations against the significant long-term uncertainties it faces. When compared to peers, its valuation multiples often incorporate a discount, which can be attributed to its higher revenue concentration in the lower-margin fuel segment and its dependency on Walmart. However, its strong record of capital returns and operational efficiency provides a compelling counterargument. The valuation appears to fairly represent the trade-offs an investor must consider: a durable, cash-rich business model today versus a future that requires a successful and challenging transformation.

Catalyst Identification

Several potential catalysts could drive value for Murphy USA in the near and long term. Near-term catalysts could include a sustained period of high and stable fuel margins, which would directly boost profitability and cash flow. Faster-than-expected success in the integration of QuickChek’s capabilities and the rollout of an enhanced foodservice offering across the Murphy network could lead to significant margin expansion and a positive re-rating by the market. The announcement of a new, large-scale share repurchase authorization could also serve as a positive catalyst, reinforcing management’s commitment to shareholder returns. Long-term, any strategic action that successfully reduces the company’s perceived dependency on Walmart could lead to a structural re-rating of its valuation multiple.

Investment Suitability

Murphy USA would likely be most attractive to investors with a long-term investment horizon who prioritize companies with a strong and demonstrated track record of shareholder-friendly capital allocation. This includes investors who follow a “Growth at a Reasonable Price” (GARP) or “Shareholder Yield” strategy, focusing on the combined return from dividends and buybacks. The company’s consistent free cash flow generation and disciplined approach to reinvestment and returns would appeal to this profile. Conversely, the stock would be less suitable for investors seeking low volatility, given the fluctuations inherent in the fuel business, or for those who are highly risk-averse regarding the long-term secular decline of gasoline consumption due to the rise of electric vehicles.

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