The Gemini Report – Investment Deep Dives

Bolloré SE (BOL.PA): An In-Depth Analysis of a Transformed Investment Holding Company

All investment deep dives on this site have been written by Google Gemini with light human editing. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advise. All materials on this site are for informational purposes only.

The Gemini Report - Investment Deep Dives
The Gemini Report – Investment Deep Dives
Bolloré SE (BOL.PA): An In-Depth Analysis of a Transformed Investment Holding Company
Loading
/

I. Executive Summary: The Metamorphosis of a Conglomerate

Bolloré SE has undergone a profound and deliberate metamorphosis, transitioning from a diversified industrial and logistics conglomerate into a streamlined, cash-rich investment holding company. The strategic divestitures of its legacy African and global logistics businesses between 2022 and 2024 have fundamentally reshaped its corporate identity and financial structure. This report posits that the central investment question surrounding Bolloré is no longer one of operational execution in capital-intensive industries but rather a question of astute capital allocation and the potential catalysts that could unlock significant value currently obscured by a complex holding structure.

The “new” Bolloré is anchored by a portfolio of high-quality, distinct assets. The crown jewel is a substantial stake in Universal Music Group (UMG), the world’s dominant music company, providing exposure to the secular growth of music streaming. This is complemented by controlling or influential stakes in a newly deconstructed European media empire—comprising Canal+ Group, Havas, and Louis Hachette Group—following the strategic spin-off from Vivendi. The portfolio is balanced by the stable, cash-generative Bolloré Energy division and a high-risk, high-reward venture into next-generation solid-state battery technology through its Blue Solutions subsidiary.

This strategic restructuring has precipitated a dramatic financial transformation. The company has swung from a net debt position of €3.4 billion at the end of 2021 to a formidable net cash position of over €5.3 billion as of year-end 2024.1 This “war chest,” equivalent to a significant portion of the company’s market capitalization, provides immense financial flexibility and is the central element of the current investment narrative. Management has embarked on a multi-pronged capital allocation strategy, deploying this capital towards aggressive share buybacks, increased dividend payments, strategic simplification of its corporate structure through minority buyouts, and opportunistic new investments.

The primary conclusion of this analysis is the existence of a substantial valuation discrepancy between Bolloré’s market capitalization and its intrinsic Net Asset Value (NAV), a gap commonly referred to as a “holding company discount.” This report will deconstruct the components of Bolloré’s value, analyze the execution of its capital deployment strategy, and explore the key catalysts—including enhanced transparency, corporate simplification, and technological breakthroughs—that could potentially narrow this discount and unlock significant shareholder value over the long term.

II. A Strategic Overhaul: Deconstructing the Old Bolloré (2022-2024)

To comprehend the current investment case for Bolloré SE, it is essential to first analyze the monumental strategic transactions undertaken between 2022 and 2024. These moves were not merely portfolio adjustments but a fundamental re-architecting of the group, pivoting away from its operational history towards a future as a strategic investment holding company.

The Exit from Logistics: A Strategic Masterstroke

The cornerstone of Bolloré’s transformation was the complete divestiture of its vast transportation and logistics empire, executed in two landmark deals.

First, the company completed the sale of 100% of Bolloré Africa Logistics to the MSC Group on December 21, 2022. This transaction was based on an enterprise value of €5.7 billion, net of minority interests, and yielded a share sale price of €5.1 billion plus a €0.6 billion repayment of current accounts.4 This division, which generated €2.6 billion in revenue in 2022, represented the historical heart of Bolloré’s presence in Africa, controlling a network of ports and logistics corridors.5

This was followed by the sale of 100% of the global Bolloré Logistics business to CMA CGM, a deal finalized on February 29, 2024, for a purchase price of €4.85 billion.2 This transaction alone was estimated to generate a consolidated net capital gain of approximately €3.6 billion in the 2024 financial year.2

The timing and execution of these sales were particularly astute. They capitalized on a period of peak valuation for logistics assets, which had benefited from the supply chain disruptions and soaring freight rates of the post-pandemic era. By divesting these assets, Bolloré not only crystallized substantial value but also significantly de-risked its profile. It exited capital-intensive, operationally complex businesses that were inherently exposed to the cyclicality of global trade, commodity price fluctuations, and the significant geopolitical and regulatory risks associated with operating in numerous African jurisdictions.11

The consequence of these divestitures extends beyond the financial windfall. It marks a fundamental shift in the company’s identity from an operator to an investor. The logistics divisions were the operational core of the old Bolloré, demanding deep industry expertise, continuous capital expenditure on infrastructure, and the management of a large global workforce. With their sale, the primary activity of the group has transitioned to the management of a portfolio of financial and industrial assets. Consequently, the success of Bolloré is now contingent on the acumen of its leadership in capital deployment and strategic investment, rather than on operational efficiency in freight forwarding. This pivot requires a complete reframing of the analytical approach, viewing Bolloré through the lens of a holding company, where the paramount skill is the effective allocation of capital.

The Vivendi Deconstruction: Unlocking Media Value

The second pillar of Bolloré’s transformation was the deconstruction of its key media holding, Vivendi. Driven by Vivendi’s own management to address a persistent “conglomerate discount” that was hampering its valuation, the company undertook a complex spin-off project that culminated in December 2024.8

The transaction resulted in the creation of four independent, publicly listed entities: Canal+ Group, Havas, Louis Hachette Group (encompassing publishing assets like Lagardère), and a smaller, residual Vivendi holding company focused on managing its remaining investment portfolio.2 As a result of this demerger, Bolloré, which held a stake of approximately 29.9% in the pre-spin Vivendi, now holds direct stakes of roughly 30.4% in each of Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette Group, while retaining a ~29.3% stake in the new, streamlined Vivendi.2 For accounting purposes, this change meant that Bolloré lost control of Vivendi under IFRS 10 standards and now accounts for these significant media investments using the equity method.2

This restructuring, while initiated by Vivendi, serves as a powerful catalyst for Bolloré’s own value realization. A primary cause of the valuation discount applied to holding companies is the opacity and complexity of their underlying assets. The Vivendi spin-off directly addresses this issue by dismantling a major, multifaceted asset into several publicly-traded, pure-play businesses. This makes the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation for Bolloré significantly more transparent and defensible, as a larger portion of its Gross Asset Value is now composed of securities with clear, real-time market prices. This enhanced transparency has the potential to attract a broader base of investors and makes it increasingly difficult for the market to justify a persistently large discount on Bolloré’s shares, thereby acting as a direct catalyst for a potential re-rating of the stock.

III. Analysis of Core Holdings: The Pillars of Value

Following the strategic overhaul, Bolloré’s value is now derived from a concentrated portfolio of distinct assets in media, energy, and advanced materials. A granular analysis of each component is essential to constructing a credible valuation for the group.

3.1 The Media & Entertainment Empire

The media and entertainment holdings, now more transparent post-Vivendi spin-off, represent the largest and most dynamic component of Bolloré’s asset base.

Universal Music Group (UMG): The Crown Jewel

Bolloré’s stake in Universal Music Group is arguably its most valuable asset. UMG is the global leader in the music industry, controlling a vast and iconic catalog of recorded music and publishing rights.17 The company’s business model benefits directly from the secular shift from physical sales and downloads to subscription-based streaming services. This transition provides a highly predictable, recurring, and high-margin revenue stream. UMG’s economic moat is formidable, built upon its irreplaceable catalog which acts as a tollbooth on a growing global industry. The company’s financial results consistently demonstrate strong growth in subscription and streaming revenue.18 Bolloré has shown its conviction in UMG’s value by actively increasing its holding, acquiring an additional 9.2 million shares for €197 million in July 2024.2 As a publicly traded entity on the Euronext Amsterdam (UMG.AS), its market value is transparent. As of August 2025, UMG’s market capitalization stood at approximately $52.6 billion, providing a clear and liquid valuation for Bolloré’s stake.19

Canal+ Group: The European Pay-TV Powerhouse

With a direct holding of approximately 30.4% 2, Canal+ Group represents a significant and strategic asset. It is the leading pay-TV operator in France, a position built on a deep moat of exclusive premium content, particularly live sports rights and a first-window for major films.21 The company is pursuing an aggressive international expansion strategy, targeting high-growth markets where pay-TV penetration is lower. It is already the leading subscription-TV operator in 19 French-speaking African countries and has a strong presence in Vietnam and Myanmar.21 This strategy is further evidenced by its ongoing mandatory takeover offer for MultiChoice, a major pay-TV provider across Africa, and its significant stakes in Viaplay (Scandinavia) and Viu (Southeast Asia).8 As a newly independent listed company, its valuation will be benchmarked against European media peers, with key metrics being its subscriber growth, average revenue per user (ARPU), and profitability in both its mature French market and its international growth segments.

Havas: The Global Communications Challenger

Bolloré’s direct ~30.4% stake in Havas provides exposure to the global advertising and communications market.2 Havas is one of the world’s largest communications groups, though it is smaller than the industry giants Publicis, Omnicom, and WPP.25 It operates a comprehensive model across three primary business lines: Havas Creative, Havas Media, and Havas Health.26 The group’s “Converged” strategy, unveiled in 2024, aims to better integrate these capabilities to provide more holistic and client-centric solutions, a necessary evolution in a rapidly changing media landscape.26 Peer analysis suggests that Havas often trades at a valuation discount to its larger competitors, presenting a potential source of value.28

Louis Hachette Group & Residual Vivendi

These holdings complete the media portfolio. Louis Hachette Group houses the publishing assets, most notably Lagardère, a global leader in both book publishing and travel retail. The residual Vivendi entity now functions as an investment company, holding the remaining portfolio which includes stakes in Telecom Italia, Banijay Group, and MediaForEurope.29 The value of these assets is derived directly from the market capitalizations of the underlying listed companies.

3.2 Industrial & Energy Assets

These segments represent the legacy industrial roots of the Bolloré Group, providing stable cash flow and a high-risk, high-reward technological venture.

Bolloré Energy: The Cash Cow

Bolloré Energy is a key player in oil logistics and the independent distribution of petroleum products, particularly domestic fuel oil, in France and parts of Europe.31 While its core market faces secular decline due to the energy transition, the business remains a reliable generator of cash flow. In response to these long-term trends, the division is strategically pivoting towards cleaner alternatives, marketing biofuels and synthetic diesel (HVO 100) through partnerships with major producers like Neste.32 This is a mature, low-growth business whose value is best assessed using a conservative multiple of its adjusted operating income (EBITA), which stood at €44 million in 2023 and €45 million in 2024.2

Blue Solutions: The High-Stakes “Call Option”

Blue Solutions represents Bolloré’s ambitious and long-term bet on the future of electric vehicle (EV) battery technology. The company is a pioneer in solid-state Lithium Metal Polymer (LMP®) batteries, which are fundamentally different from conventional lithium-ion batteries that use a liquid electrolyte.34 The claimed advantages of LMP® technology are significant: enhanced safety due to the elimination of flammable liquid electrolytes, higher energy density (potentially 40% greater than Li-ion), a longer lifecycle (exceeding 3,500 charge/discharge cycles), and a more sustainable composition that is free of cobalt and nickel.34

However, the technology faces a critical challenge: its current generation requires a four-hour charging time, which is viable for commercial vehicles like buses but unacceptable for the passenger car market.37 The company’s roadmap is focused on developing its “GEN4” battery, which aims to reduce this charging time to just 20 minutes.37 The “Industry” segment, which includes Blue Solutions, remains in a heavy investment phase, reporting a negative EBITA of €114 million in 2023 and €179 million in 2024, underscoring the significant cash burn required for its R&D efforts.2

To mitigate the immense capital expenditure required to compete with Asian battery giants like CATL and LG Energy Solution, Blue Solutions has adopted a partnership-led commercialization strategy.38 It already supplies batteries for Daimler’s electric buses and has signed a crucial Joint Development Agreement (JDA) with BMW to adapt its technology for passenger cars.36 Furthermore, the company is reportedly in discussions with Volkswagen for a similar partnership.37

This positions Blue Solutions as a venture-capital-style investment housed within a publicly-traded holding company. Its valuation is based almost entirely on future potential rather than current earnings. This creates a unique structure where investors in Bolloré gain exposure to a high-risk, high-reward venture in a disruptive technology, funded by the stable cash flows and dividends from the group’s mature media and energy assets. The success or failure of Blue Solutions could have a disproportionate impact on Bolloré’s long-term valuation, acting as a high-beta “call option” on the future of solid-state batteries.

3.3 Financial Investments

Post-transformation, Bolloré has begun to selectively deploy its capital into new financial investments. The most notable move was the acquisition of a stake in Rubis, a French company specializing in the storage and distribution of petroleum and chemical products, in March 2024. As of early 2025, this holding stood at nearly 6% with a market value of €163 million.2 This investment signals a willingness to take strategic minority positions in adjacent industries where management may perceive value.

IV. Financial Performance and A Fortress Balance Sheet

The strategic overhaul has rendered a direct comparison of Bolloré’s historical and current consolidated financial statements challenging, yet the underlying transformation of its financial profile is stark and overwhelmingly positive.

Pro-Forma Financial Profile (Post-Transformation)

A review of financial statements from 2020-2022 reveals a company whose top line was dominated by its Transportation & Logistics and Communications segments. In 2022, for instance, these activities accounted for the vast majority of the group’s €20.7 billion in revenue.1

The financial results for the full year 2024 provide the first, albeit complex, view of the new corporate structure. Reported revenue plummeted to €3.1 billion, down from €13.7 billion in 2023, a direct result of the deconsolidation of the logistics business and the shift to equity-method accounting for the now-independent media assets.2 Consequently, adjusted operating income (EBITA) collapsed from €994 million in 2023 to just €1 million in 2024.2

These headline figures, however, are misleading and do not reflect the true earnings power of the new Bolloré. The economic reality is now captured primarily in the “share of net income from equity-accounted companies” line item and the dividends received from its vast portfolio of holdings. A pro-forma analysis must look through the consolidated statements to the underlying performance of UMG, Canal+, Havas, and Bolloré Energy to ascertain the group’s recurring cash generation capability. For example, in 2024, the EBITA contribution from Communications (primarily UMG) was €207 million, while Bolloré Energy contributed €45 million.3

The table below provides a pro-forma overview of the key assets and their estimated contribution to Bolloré’s value as of year-end 2024.

Asset% HoldingMarket Value / Estimated EV (€bn)Valuation Basis
Universal Music Group~18.5% (post-merger)~8.7Market Capitalization (€47.1bn) 2
Canal+ Group~30.4%~0.8Market Capitalization (€2.6bn) 42
Havas~30.4%~0.4Market Capitalization (€1.4bn) 28
Louis Hachette Group (Lagardère)~30.4%~1.0Market Capitalization (€3.3bn) 44
Vivendi (residual)~29.3%~1.0Net Asset Value (€3.5bn) 45
Bolloré Energy100%~0.25x EV/EBITA multiple (€45m) 46
Blue Solutions (Industry)100%~0.5Book Value (Illustrative)
Other Financial Assets (Rubis, etc.)Various~0.2Market Value 2
Gross Asset Value (GAV)~12.8
Net Cash+5.3YE 2024 Position 2
Net Asset Value (NAV)~18.1

Note: Valuations are illustrative and based on data from late 2024/early 2025. Market values of listed assets are subject to daily fluctuation. The valuation for Blue Solutions is particularly uncertain and is presented here at an illustrative book value.

Balance Sheet Analysis: From Debt to a Cash Fortress

The most significant outcome of the strategic restructuring has been the radical transformation of Bolloré’s balance sheet. The company has methodically moved from a position of substantial leverage to one of exceptional financial strength.

The group’s net financial position has evolved dramatically over the past four years:

  • Year-End 2020: Net Debt of €9.1 billion 47
  • Year-End 2021: Net Debt of €3.4 billion 1
  • Year-End 2022: Net Cash of €1.2 billion (following the sale of Bolloré Africa Logistics) 4
  • Year-End 2023: Net Debt of €1.5 billion (temporarily impacted by the full consolidation of Vivendi’s debt before the spin-off) 33
  • Year-End 2024: Net Cash of €5.3 billion (following the sale of Bolloré Logistics and the Vivendi demerger) 2

The year-end 2024 net cash position of €5.3 billion is a defining feature of the investment case. This substantial liquidity, equivalent to over 30% of the company’s €16.3 billion market capitalization as of March 2025, provides an unparalleled degree of financial flexibility.2 This cash fortress not only offers a significant margin of safety against macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties but also equips management with a powerful tool for value creation, provided it is allocated with discipline and strategic foresight.

V. Capital Allocation: Deploying the War Chest

With the transformation largely complete and a multi-billion euro cash pile on its balance sheet, the central focus for Bolloré’s management and investors alike is now capital allocation. The company’s strategy is multifaceted, balancing direct returns to shareholders with strategic reinvestment and a crucial, ongoing effort to simplify its corporate structure.

Stated Framework and Shareholder Returns

Management has articulated a flexible capital allocation framework, stating that the group’s financial solidity will enable it to “pursue serenely its investments in its various businesses and perhaps, in the future, in new sectors”.15 This approach is evident in their recent actions, which demonstrate a clear commitment to both shareholder returns and strategic growth.

Dividends: The company has signaled its confidence and commitment to shareholders through a rising dividend. The proposed dividend for the 2024 fiscal year is €0.08 per share, representing a 14% increase over the €0.07 per share paid for 2023 (which itself was a 17% increase over 2022).2 The group has a long history of consistent dividend payments, typically distributed in two installments (interim and final), providing a regular cash return to investors.52

Share Buybacks: Bolloré has been particularly aggressive in repurchasing its own shares, viewing them as undervalued. This strategy has been executed through both large-scale tender offers and open-market programs:

  • In 2023, the company launched a simplified cash tender offer, ultimately acquiring 99.1 million of its own shares for a total outlay of €570 million.33
  • During the 2024 fiscal year, Bolloré acquired an additional 12 million shares for €69 million through its ongoing buyback program.2
  • Crucially, the Board of Directors has consistently followed these buybacks with the cancellation of the repurchased shares. This includes the cancellation of 101.5 million shares in January 2024 and a further 22.7 million shares in May 2025.33 This practice is directly accretive to the remaining shareholders, increasing their percentage ownership of the company and their claim on its underlying assets and future earnings.

Strategic Reinvestment & Simplification

Beyond direct shareholder returns, capital is being deployed to strengthen the existing portfolio and simplify the convoluted corporate structure—a key initiative aimed at tackling the holding company discount.

Strategic Investments: The company is using its cash to fortify its core holdings, as demonstrated by the €197 million purchase of additional UMG shares in July 2024.2 The acquisition of a ~6% stake in Rubis for €163 million represents the first significant new investment, indicating a strategy of deploying capital into strategic minority positions in adjacent industries.2

Corporate Simplification: A significant, and analytically crucial, use of capital is the ongoing effort to streamline the complex web of listed holding companies that form the Bolloré ownership pyramid. In September 2024, Bolloré SE announced its intention to launch public buyout offers for the shares of Compagnie du Cambodge, Financière Moncey, and Société Industrielle et Financière de l’Artois.2 These offers provide minority shareholders with the option to tender their shares for either cash or UMG shares.

This capital deployment strategy serves a dual mandate. The first is traditional value creation through investing in growth assets and returning cash to shareholders. The second, more nuanced purpose is structural repair. The buyouts of minority interests in subsidiary holding companies do not add new operating assets to the group. Instead, they are a direct investment in simplifying the corporate structure. This simplification attacks the root cause of the holding company discount—complexity and opacity. Therefore, capital allocated to these buyouts should be viewed as an investment in achieving a higher future valuation multiple for the entire group, representing a powerful, self-help catalyst for unlocking shareholder value.

The table below summarizes the group’s major capital deployment activities in the 2023-2024 period.

Use of CashYearAmount (€ millions)Source
Share Buyback (Tender Offer)202357033
Share Buyback (Open Market)2024693
Total Dividends Paid (FY 2023)2024~20050
Acquisition of UMG shares20241972
Acquisition of Rubis stake20241632
Total Major Deployments2023-2024~1,199

VI. Growth Drivers & Potential Catalysts

The investment case for Bolloré SE is heavily reliant on the realization of several key catalysts that could unlock the value embedded within its portfolio and corporate structure.

  • Narrowing the Holding Company Discount: This is the most significant potential driver of shareholder value. The market has historically applied a substantial discount to Bolloré’s shares relative to the underlying value of its assets due to its complexity. Several factors are now actively working to close this gap: the increased transparency from the Vivendi spin-off, the aggressive and accretive share buyback program, and the deliberate strategy of simplifying the corporate pyramid through minority buyouts. As the structure becomes cleaner and the value of the underlying assets becomes more apparent, the justification for a large discount diminishes.
  • Secular Growth in Core Media Assets: Bolloré is well-positioned to benefit from powerful, long-term trends in the media industry. The continued global adoption of music streaming provides a direct and recurring growth tailwind for its substantial stake in UMG. Simultaneously, Canal+ Group’s strategic expansion into high-growth emerging markets in Africa and Asia offers a long-term runway for subscriber and revenue growth, complementing its stable, cash-generative base in France.21
  • Technological Breakthrough at Blue Solutions: The company’s investment in solid-state batteries represents a significant, albeit high-risk, catalyst. Any major technological milestone, such as successfully demonstrating a 20-minute charge time for its GEN4 passenger car battery, would be a transformative event. Similarly, the formalization of a large-scale joint development and manufacturing agreement with a major global automaker, such as Volkswagen, would validate the technology and could trigger a substantial re-rating of the “Industry” segment from a cash-burning R&D project to a high-growth technology asset with immense potential value.
  • Value-Accretive Capital Deployment: With a net cash position exceeding €5.3 billion, management has the firepower to execute a transformational acquisition.2 A large, disciplined, and value-accretive acquisition in a new or adjacent business line could significantly boost the group’s earnings power and Net Asset Value per share, providing a clear catalyst for stock price appreciation.

VII. Key Risks & Headwinds

Despite the positive catalysts, an investment in Bolloré SE is not without significant risks that must be carefully considered.

  • Capital Misallocation (Diworsification): The single greatest risk facing the company is the potential for mismanagement of its vast cash reserves. There is a risk that management could deploy its €5.3 billion war chest into value-destructive acquisitions in unrelated fields (“diworsification”) or overpay for assets in competitive auction processes. The future performance of the stock is heavily dependent on disciplined and shareholder-focused capital allocation.
  • Persistent Valuation Discount: Despite management’s ongoing efforts to simplify the structure and return capital, the market may continue to apply a steep holding company discount. This could be due to the continued family-controlled structure, the inherent complexity of managing a diverse portfolio of assets, or a lack of investor confidence in the long-term capital allocation strategy. The catalysts for narrowing the discount may take longer to materialize than anticipated, or may not be fully reflected in the share price.
  • Geopolitical and Regulatory Risk: The group’s significant exposure to emerging markets, particularly through Canal+’s large and growing presence in Africa, introduces considerable geopolitical, regulatory, and currency risks.11 Political instability, changes in government policy, or sharp currency devaluations in key African markets could negatively impact Canal+’s earnings and valuation.56 Furthermore, the broader media industry in Europe is subject to stringent and evolving regulatory scrutiny.
  • Technological Failure at Blue Solutions: The investment in Blue Solutions is a high-risk venture. There is a material risk that its LMP® technology will fail to achieve its performance targets, particularly the crucial reduction in charging time required for passenger car adoption. Furthermore, the solid-state battery space is intensely competitive, with the risk that Blue Solutions could be leapfrogged by competing technologies from better-capitalized Asian or American rivals.38 A failure to commercialize the technology would result in the write-off of decades of investment and eliminate a key long-term growth option for the group.
  • Competition in Media: The media landscape remains intensely competitive. Canal+ faces ongoing pressure from global streaming giants like Netflix and Disney+, which have vast content budgets. Havas competes against larger, more scaled global advertising networks. Both entities must continually innovate and invest to maintain their competitive positions and profitability.

VIII. Valuation Analysis: A Sum-of-the-Parts Imperative

Given Bolloré SE’s structure as a holding company with a diverse portfolio of distinct assets, a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation is the most appropriate and insightful methodology for assessing its intrinsic value. This approach values each business segment or asset individually and then sums them up to derive a total enterprise value, from which net debt (or to which net cash) is adjusted to arrive at a Net Asset Value (NAV).

Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) Framework

The SOTP valuation is constructed by assessing each of Bolloré’s core holdings:

  1. Listed Assets: The value of Bolloré’s stakes in publicly traded companies is determined by their real-time market prices. This includes the holdings in Universal Music Group (UMG.AS), the newly listed Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette Group (which holds the listed Lagardère), the residual Vivendi entity, and the stake in Rubis. This portion of the NAV is transparent and objectively verifiable.
  2. Unlisted Industrial Assets:
  • Bolloré Energy: This segment is valued using a peer-based EV/EBITA multiple. Given its stable but low-growth profile as a European oil distributor, a conservative multiple in the range of 4.0x to 6.0x applied to its 2024 EBITA of €45 million is appropriate.3
  • Blue Solutions (Industry Segment): This is the most challenging component to value due to its pre-revenue nature and significant operating losses (€-179 million EBITA in 2024).2 A traditional earnings-based valuation is not feasible. Therefore, a scenario-based approach is necessary:
  • Conservative Case: Value the division at its book value, acknowledging the invested capital but assigning no value to future technological potential.
  • Base Case: Utilize valuation metrics from publicly traded, pre-commercialization solid-state battery peers such as QuantumScape (NYSE: QS) and Solid Power (NASDAQ: SLDP).60 This approach is highly speculative and subject to wide variations.
  • For this analysis, a conservative book value approach is used in the primary SOTP calculation to reflect the high degree of uncertainty.
  1. Net Cash: The consolidated net cash position of €5.306 billion as of December 31, 2024, is added to the sum of the asset values.2
  2. Corporate Costs: A deduction for central holding company costs is typically applied, often by capitalizing these costs at a market multiple. However, given the scale of the net cash position, these are considered negligible for this analysis.

The table below presents a detailed SOTP valuation for Bolloré SE based on market data and estimates from late 2024 and early 2025.

ComponentBasis of ValuationValue (€ millions)
Gross Asset Value (GAV)12,825
Listed Media & Investments11,825
Universal Music GroupMarket Value of ~18.5% stake8,714
Canal+ GroupMarket Value of ~30.4% stake790
Louis Hachette Group (Lagardère)Market Value of ~30.4% stake1,009
HavasMarket Value of ~30.4% stake426
Vivendi (residual)NAV of ~29.3% stake1,023
Other Financial Assets (e.g., Rubis)Market Value200
Industrial & Energy Assets600
Bolloré Energy5.0x EV/EBITA multiple225
Blue Solutions / IndustryBook Value (Illustrative)375
Add: Net CashYE 2024 Position5,306
Net Asset Value (NAV)18,131
Shares Outstanding (millions)Post-cancellation2,827
NAV per Share€6.41
Share Price (as of March 14, 2025)€5.73
Implied Discount to NAV10.6%

Note: Market values of listed assets are based on reported figures from late 2024/early 2025 for consistency. The number of shares outstanding reflects cancellations announced in May 2025. The implied discount is dynamic and changes with market prices.

Net Asset Value (NAV) Discount Analysis

The SOTP calculation suggests a Net Asset Value per share of approximately €6.41. Compared to the share price of €5.73 on March 14, 2025, this implies a holding company discount of around 11%.2 Historically, complex family-controlled holding companies in Europe can trade at discounts ranging from 15% to 30% or more. The analysis suggests that the market may already be pricing in some of the positive effects of the simplification strategy. However, there remains potential for this discount to narrow further, or even trade at a premium, should management execute flawlessly on its capital allocation strategy and Blue Solutions achieve a significant technological or commercial breakthrough.

Sensitivity Analysis

The SOTP valuation is highly sensitive to the market value of its largest holding, UMG, and the speculative value assigned to Blue Solutions.

  • A 10% increase or decrease in the market value of UMG would change Bolloré’s NAV per share by approximately €0.31.
  • Assigning a higher, peer-based valuation to Blue Solutions could significantly increase the NAV. For instance, if Blue Solutions were valued at €1.5 billion (a fraction of its public peers’ valuations), it would add approximately €0.40 to the NAV per share, increasing the discount to NAV. Conversely, a complete write-off would reduce the NAV per share by roughly €0.13.

This sensitivity underscores the importance of UMG’s continued performance and the binary nature of the investment in Blue Solutions for Bolloré’s overall valuation.

Works cited

  1. Business report – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/bollo-content/uploads/2023/05/0502_boll22t023_rapport-d-activite_2022_gb_mel.pdf
  2. 2024 RESULTS – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/bollo-content/uploads/2025/03/2025-03-17-bol-res-fy24-uk.pdf
  3. Bolloré : Results for fiscal year 2024 | The Manila Times, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.manilatimes.net/2025/03/18/tmt-newswire/globenewswire/bollore-results-for-fiscal-year-2024/2074734
  4. Présentation PowerPoint – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/bollo-content/uploads/2024/08/2023-03-14_bol-2022-vf-uk.pdf
  5. BOLLORÉ : 2022 RESULTS – GlobeNewswire, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/03/14/2627018/0/en/BOLLOR%C3%89-2022-RESULTS.html
  6. Bolloré – Wikipedia, accessed August 6, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bollor%C3%A9
  7. Releases – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/en/communiques/
  8. Financial information for Q1 2024 April 29, 2024 Revenue for Q1 …, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/bollo-content/uploads/2024/04/2024-04-29-bollore-ca1t-2024-en.pdf
  9. Results for fiscal year 2024 March 17, 2025, accessed August 6, 2025, https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/9d80823a-e2f2-4d9d-8682-24f8ed2612c5
  10. Results for fiscal year 2024 March 17, 2025, accessed August 6, 2025, https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/b498b279-019b-4c43-b4d7-ea95f04d377f
  11. How Geopolitical Volatility will Impact Businesses| Aon Insights Series UK, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.aon.com/en/events/aon-insights-series-uk/how-geopolitical-volatility-will-impact-businesses
  12. Building resilience in West Africa: Mitigating risks and seizing opportunities, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.business-sweden.com/insights/articles/building-resilience-in-west-africa/
  13. Ten Things to Watch in Africa in 2024 – Giga Hamburg, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publications/giga-focus/ten-things-to-watch-in-africa-in-2024
  14. WEST AFRICA EARLY WARNING OUTLOOK 2024, accessed August 6, 2025, https://wanep.org/wanep/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/WANEP-Annual-Peace-and-Security-Outlook-2024.pdf
  15. NOTICE OF MEETING 2025 – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/bollo-content/uploads/2025/04/0429_boll24t036_avis_convoc_gb_2025_mel.pdf
  16. BUSINESS REPORT 2024 – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/bollo-content/uploads/2025/05/0520_bollore_ra2024_gb_mel.pdf
  17. UMG Investor Relations – Universal Music Group NV – Alpha Spread, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.alphaspread.com/security/aex/umg/investor-relations
  18. UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP N.V. REPORTS FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR THE SECOND QUARTER AND HALF YEAR ENDED JUNE 30, 2025, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.universalmusic.com/universal-music-group-n-v-reports-financial-results-for-the-second-quarter-and-half-year-ended-june-30-2025/
  19. Universal Music Group (UMG.AS) – Market capitalization – Companies Market Cap, accessed August 6, 2025, https://companiesmarketcap.com/universal-music-group/marketcap/
  20. companiesmarketcap.com, accessed August 6, 2025, https://companiesmarketcap.com/universal-music-group/marketcap/#:~:text=Market%20cap%3A%20%2452.63%20Billion%20USD,cap%20according%20to%20our%20data.
  21. from a french television channel to a global media and entertainment group – Groupe CANAL+, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.canalplusgroup.com/en/group
  22. EUROPE | CANAL+ Group, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.canalplusgroup.com/en/group/europe-2
  23. Canal+’s new perimeter and reporting segments – Vivendi, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.vivendi.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/PR240920-Canal-new-perimeter-and-reporting-segments_.pdf
  24. Canal+ reports 2024 annual results, revenue growth – but faces share-price drop | News, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.screendaily.com/news/canal-reports-2024-annual-results-revenue-growth-but-faces-share-price-drop/5202634.article
  25. Havas (Media and Information Services (B2B)) 2025 Company Profile – PitchBook, accessed August 6, 2025, https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/55886-50
  26. 2024 marks a historic year of financial performance for Havas, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.havas.com/havas-content/uploads/2025/03/pr_annual-results-2024_en-v-def.pdf
  27. Yannick Bolloré – Havas, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.havas.com/member/yannick-bollore/
  28. Havas Nv Stock Price Today | AS: HAVAS Live – Investing.com, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.investing.com/equities/havas-nv
  29. FY 2024 RESULTS – Vivendi, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.vivendi.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/20250306_VIV_Pres_FY_2024_ENG.pdf
  30. Vivendi: 2024 Annual Results Following the Spin-off – Euronext Markets, accessed August 6, 2025, https://live.euronext.com/en/products/equities/company-news/2025-03-06-vivendi-2024-annual-results-following-spin
  31. Activities and shareholdings – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/en/activites-et-participations-2/
  32. Bolloré Energy, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/en/activites-et-participations-2/transport-and-logistics/bollore-energy/
  33. Présentation PowerPoint – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/bollo-content/uploads/2024/03/2024-03-14-bol-res-fy-23-uk.pdf
  34. Blue – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/en/activites-et-participations-2/stockage-delectricite-et-systemes/blue/
  35. Solid-State Battery : Superior Performance & Sustainability – Blue Solutions, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.blue-solutions.com/products/
  36. Blue Solutions produces the first fully solid-state battery – Smart Energy International, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.smart-energy.com/policy-regulation/blue-solutions-first-fully-solid-state-battery/
  37. “VW holds talks with French battery maker Blue Solutions on developing solid-state batteries” – ChargeInfra, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.chargeinfra.eu/company-news/2024/01/17/vw-holds-talks-with-french-battery-maker-blue-solutions-on-developing-solid-state-batteries/
  38. Top 10 Leading Companies in the Global Electric Vehicle EV Battery Market, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.intellectualmarketinsights.com/blog/top-10-leading-companies-in-the-global-electric-vehicle-ev-battery-market
  39. Global Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers [2025] – Blackridge Research & Consulting, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.blackridgeresearch.com/blog/list-of-top-electric-vehicle-ev-battery-evb-manufacturers-makers-companies-producers-component-suppliers
  40. Volkswagen considers sourcing solid-state batteries from Blue Solutions – electrive.com, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.electrive.com/2024/01/16/volkswagen-considers-sourcing-solid-state-batteries-from-blue-solutions/
  41. Blue Solutions plans to build a €2 billion gigafactory in France – Mobility Portal Europe, accessed August 6, 2025, https://mobilityportal.eu/blue-solutions-to-build-gigafactory-france/
  42. Canal+ (DB:YA3) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets – Simply Wall St, accessed August 6, 2025, https://simplywall.st/stocks/de/media/fra-ya3/canal–shares/valuation
  43. Havas (ENXTAM:HAVAS) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets, accessed August 6, 2025, https://simplywall.st/stocks/nl/media/ams-havas/havas-shares/valuation
  44. Lagardère 2025 Company Profile: Stock Performance & Earnings …, accessed August 6, 2025, https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/43057-54
  45. Vivendi (ENXTPA:VIV) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets – Simply Wall St, accessed August 6, 2025, https://simplywall.st/stocks/fr/media/epa-viv/vivendi-shares/valuation
  46. EBITDA/Valuation Multiples for Oil and Gas Sector: 2025 Report – First Page Sage, accessed August 6, 2025, https://firstpagesage.com/business/ebitda-valuation-multiples-for-oil-and-gas-sector/
  47. Bolloré :2020 results – Company Announcement – FT.com – Markets data, accessed August 6, 2025, https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1330-1000460344en-3RJJBGRSCGC547SLDRUKSOVIRS
  48. 2021 – Business report – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/bollo-content/uploads/2022/05/0504_2202206_boll_ra_2021_gb_mel.pdf
  49. Bolloré : 2021 Results – GlobeNewswire, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/03/10/2401221/0/en/Bollor%C3%A9-2021-Results.html
  50. Bolloré :2023 results – CentralCharts, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.centralcharts.com/en/837-bollore/news/4599020-bollor-2023-results
  51. Dividend – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/en/dividend/
  52. Bolloré SE ( BOL.PA) Dividends – Digrin, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.digrin.com/stocks/detail/BOL.PA/
  53. Bollore SE (BOL) Dividends – DividendMax, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.dividendmax.com/france/euronext-paris/industrial-transportation/bollore-se/dividends
  54. PRESS RELEASE – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/bollo-content/uploads/2025/05/communique-ag-2025-bollore-engb.pdf
  55. Financial information for the third quarter 2024 October 24, 2024 Revenue (at constant scope and exchange rates) – Bolloré, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.bollore.com/bollo-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-24-bollore-cat3-_en.pdf
  56. Emerging Trends in US Security Engagements in West Africa | Wilson Center, accessed August 6, 2025, https://plasticpipeline.wilsoncenter.org/article/emerging-trends-us-security-engagements-west-africa
  57. Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa Could Permanently Decline if Geopolitical Tensions Escalate – International Monetary Fund (IMF), accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/04/27/cf-economic-growth-in-ssa-could-permanently-decline-if-geopolitical-tensions-escalate
  58. EV Battery Market Size, Share, Forecast, Report, 2035 – MarketsandMarkets, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/electric-vehicle-battery-market-100188347.html
  59. Top 10: EV Battery Manufacturers – EV Magazine, accessed August 6, 2025, https://evmagazine.com/top10/top-10-ev-battery-manufacturers
  60. Investing in Quantum Glass Battery Stocks | The Motley Fool, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/information-technology/ai-stocks/quantum-glass-battery-stocks/
  61. Solid Power Reports Full Year 2024 Results, accessed August 6, 2025, https://www.solidpowerbattery.com/investor-relations/investor-news/news-details/2025/Solid-Power-Reports-Full-Year-2024-Results/default.aspx
  62. 7 Solid-State Battery Stocks to Watch in 2025 – Moneywise, accessed August 6, 2025, https://moneywise.com/investing/stocks/solid-state-battery-stocks