Slide Deck

Executive Summary

Ecopetrol S.A. stands as Colombia’s largest corporation and national oil company, with an integrated model spanning the entire hydrocarbon value chain. The company is at a critical juncture, balancing its traditional oil and gas operations against a challenging domestic political landscape and a strategic pivot towards energy diversification, exemplified by its 2021 acquisition of a controlling stake in Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. (ISA). This move has transformed Ecopetrol into a broader energy conglomerate, adding stable, regulated revenues from electricity transmission and toll roads to its portfolio.

The company maintains a dominant position in Colombia, responsible for over 60% of the nation’s hydrocarbon production and operating the majority of its midstream and downstream infrastructure.¹ Financially, it has demonstrated resilience, generating significant EBITDA and cash flow, though performance remains highly correlated with global oil prices. Recent results highlight strong operational metrics, including record production levels, but financial performance has been impacted by lower commodity prices compared to the peak levels of 2022.⁴

The current Colombian administration’s policy of halting new oil and gas exploration licenses presents the single most significant challenge to the company’s long-term viability.⁶ This policy forces a strategic focus on maximizing recovery from existing assets and accelerating diversification, creating a fundamental tension between the company’s need to replace its dwindling reserves and the government’s energy transition agenda.

The primary risks facing Ecopetrol are political and regulatory, stemming from the government’s anti-fossil fuel stance and its 88.49% ownership stake, which can lead to strategic decisions that prioritize national fiscal needs over minority shareholder value.⁹ Operational risks from security disruptions and a declining reserve life are also paramount concerns that weigh on the company’s valuation.¹²

Ecopetrol often trades at a valuation discount to international peers, reflecting these heightened risks. The bull case for the company hinges on a potential future policy reversal driven by fiscal necessity, strong execution in enhanced oil recovery from existing fields, and continued stable cash flows from its midstream (Cenit) and transmission (ISA) segments. The bear case is centered on the government’s policy becoming entrenched, leading to a terminal decline in reserves and production, exacerbated by ongoing security issues and a capital allocation policy that prioritizes dividends over long-term investment.

1. Corporate Profile & Strategic Imperatives

1.1. Role as Colombia’s National Oil Company

Ecopetrol S.A. is the largest company in Colombia and a primary integrated energy company in the Americas.¹ The Republic of Colombia is the majority shareholder, owning 88.49% of the company’s shares, with the remaining 11.51% held by a mix of institutional and retail investors.¹⁰ This dominant state ownership is the single most critical factor influencing Ecopetrol’s corporate strategy, governance, and capital allocation decisions. The company’s objectives are often intertwined with the nation’s economic and fiscal policies.

As the national oil company, Ecopetrol is responsible for over 60% of Colombia’s hydrocarbon production and operates the majority of the nation’s transportation, logistics, and refining systems.¹ This state-backed, market-leading position provides a significant competitive moat within Colombia’s borders but also exposes the company directly and profoundly to domestic political and regulatory risk.

1.2. Integrated Business Model

The company operates across the full energy value chain, a structure that provides operational synergies and a degree of diversification against volatility in any single segment. Following a strategic reorganization, its operations are now categorized into three primary business lines: Hydrocarbons (which includes the traditional upstream and downstream segments), Low Emission Solutions, and Transmission and Toll Roads.¹⁶

• Upstream (Exploration & Production): This remains the core of its traditional business and primary profit driver. Operations are focused on exploring for and producing crude oil and natural gas, primarily within Colombia’s Llanos, Magdalena Medio, and Putumayo basins. The company also holds international assets, notably in the U.S. Permian Basin and Gulf of Mexico, as well as in Brazil and Mexico.¹
• Midstream (Transportation & Logistics): Operated through its key subsidiary Cenit, this segment manages a vast network of crude oil pipelines, refined product pipelines (polyducts), and storage facilities. It functions as a critical toll-taker for the Colombian energy industry, providing a stable, regulated, and significant source of income.¹⁷
• Downstream (Refining & Petrochemicals): Ecopetrol operates Colombia’s two main refineries, Barrancabermeja and Cartagena (Reficar), which supply the majority of the country’s fuel needs. It also holds leading positions in the domestic petrochemical and gas distribution markets.¹

1.3. Strategic Diversification: The ISA Acquisition

In a landmark strategic shift, Ecopetrol acquired a 51.4% controlling stake in Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. (ISA) from the Colombian government in August 2021.¹⁵ This transaction fundamentally reshaped Ecopetrol from a pure-play oil and gas company into a diversified energy and infrastructure conglomerate.

ISA is the largest power transmission company in Latin America, with a vast network of high-voltage lines and infrastructure in Colombia, Brazil, Peru, and Chile.²¹ The acquisition provides Ecopetrol with a substantial portfolio of regulated, non-hydrocarbon assets. These assets generate stable, predictable, and largely U.S. dollar-denominated cash flows from long-term concessions in electricity transmission and toll roads, offering a powerful diversification away from the inherent volatility of commodity prices.²¹

This acquisition represents more than a simple energy transition play; it is a critical strategic hedge against domestic political risk. With Ecopetrol’s core E&P business facing existential threats from the Colombian government’s policy of halting new exploration, the future cash flows from the hydrocarbon segment are subject to immense uncertainty. The ISA assets, being geographically diversified and operating under different regulatory frameworks, provide a crucial counterbalance. The acquisition diversifies political risk as much as it diversifies energy sources, insulating a significant portion of the company’s cash flow from the policy decisions of its own majority shareholder.

1.4. Current Strategy: “Energy that Transforms”

Ecopetrol’s long-term vision, the “2040 Strategy,” is built on four pillars: generating competitive returns, pursuing growth with an energy transition focus, creating value through technology and sustainability (TESG), and fostering cutting-edge knowledge.¹⁶

This strategy is put into practice through a dual-track capital allocation framework. The 2024 investment plan, for instance, totals between COP 23 trillion and COP 27 trillion (approximately $5.6 billion to $6.6 billion).¹⁶ A significant portion, between $3.5 billion and $4.1 billion, is allocated to the traditional Exploration & Production segment. This investment is aimed at sustaining production levels in a target range of 725,000 to 730,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboed), reflecting a commitment to maximizing value from the core business despite political headwinds.¹⁶

Simultaneously, a substantial allocation of $2.27 billion to $2.66 billion is earmarked for energy transition projects. This includes investments in expanding natural gas supply, decarbonization initiatives, and funding the expansion of ISA’s power transmission network.¹⁶ This dual-pronged approach highlights management’s attempt to balance the immediate need for profitability from its legacy assets with the long-term imperative to diversify and de-risk the business.

2. Operational Analysis & Asset Base

2.1. Upstream: Production & Reserves

Ecopetrol’s upstream segment has demonstrated operational resilience in recent years, though its long-term health is a source of significant concern.

• Production Levels: Average production has been strong, reaching 746 kboed in 2024, the highest level in nine years and exceeding the company’s targets.⁴ This performance has been driven by successful development campaigns in key fields and contributions from international assets like the Permian joint venture.⁵ The production target for 2025 is guided at a similar level of 740,000 to 750,000 bpd.⁴
• Proven Reserves (1P): The company’s reserve base is under pressure. While proven reserves stood at a multi-year high of 2,011 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) at the end of 2022, they have since trended downward.¹⁶ By year-end 2024, reserves were reported at 1.89 billion boe, a notable decline.²³ This trend is a direct consequence of producing more barrels than are being added through new discoveries.
• Reserve Replacement and Reserve Life: The Reserve Replacement Ratio (RRR), which measures the extent to which produced reserves are replaced with new ones, was 104% in 2024.⁵ While a ratio above 100% is technically positive, it is primarily being achieved through revisions of existing field estimates and enhanced oil recovery projects, not through new exploration success. This is an unsustainable model. Consequently, the company’s reserve life—the number of years current reserves would last at current production rates—has been contracting. It stood at 8.4 years at the end of 2022 but had fallen to approximately 7.1 years for oil and 6.1 years for gas by mid-2024.²⁵ This short reserve life is a major structural risk for the company.

The upstream segment is effectively in a race against time. The company is successfully executing its short-term strategy of maximizing production from its existing asset base. However, this is being done without a viable long-term strategy for reserve replenishment due to the government’s ban on new exploration. This dynamic means the company is liquidating its core long-term asset—its reserves—with no clear path to replacing them. Unless there is a significant change in government policy, the upstream segment’s production will inevitably enter a steep, structural decline within the next five to seven years. This reality elevates the importance of the stable, long-life cash flows generated by the Midstream and Transmission segments for the company’s future.

2.2. Midstream: Cenit’s Infrastructure Dominance

Ecopetrol’s midstream operations are consolidated under its wholly-owned subsidiary, Cenit Transporte y Logística de Hidrocarburos S.A.S..⁶ Cenit operates a near-monopolistic network of hydrocarbon transportation infrastructure in Colombia, providing a stable and predictable source of revenue that acts as a financial ballast for the more volatile upstream segment.

Cenit’s asset base includes approximately 9,000 kilometers of crude oil pipelines and refined product polyducts, along with storage facilities, ports, and loading stations.²⁸ Key assets include the Ocensa pipeline, Colombia’s largest with a capacity of 590,000 bpd, and the frequently targeted Caño Limón-Coveñas pipeline.²⁹ The segment demonstrates consistent operational performance, with transported volumes regularly exceeding 1.1 million barrels per day (1,119 kbd in 2024).⁵

2.3. Downstream: Refining & Petrochemicals

Ecopetrol owns and operates all of Colombia’s major refineries, effectively controlling the domestic supply of fuels.⁶ The two primary facilities are:

• Barrancabermeja Refinery: Colombia’s largest, with a capacity of approximately 230,000 bpd.³³
• Cartagena Refinery (Reficar): A more modern facility with a capacity of approximately 210,000 bpd following a major expansion.³⁵

The combined capacity of these two refineries is approximately 440,000 bpd. The company has demonstrated high operational availability and utilization rates, with consolidated throughput reaching 414 kbd in 2024, ensuring a steady supply of gasoline, diesel, and other refined products to the domestic market.⁵

While Ecopetrol is the primary wholesaler of fuels in Colombia, specific, verifiable data on the number of retail gas stations it directly operates or its precise market share in the fragmented retail fuel market is not available in the reviewed materials. This represents a data gap in the analysis. Given its role as the dominant refiner, it is assumed that Ecopetrol effectively controls the wholesale market, supplying fuel to various third-party retail brands across the country.

Table 1: Key Operational Metrics (FY 2022-2024)

Metric	Unit	2022	2023	2024
Average Production	kboed	709.5 25	737.0 (a)	746.0 5
Proven Reserves (1P)	mmboe	2,011 22	2,020 37	1,890 23
Reserve Replacement Ratio	%	104 25	129 (b)	104 5
Reserve Life	Years	8.4 25	7.6 5	7.1 (c)
Midstream Transported Volumes	kbd	1,070.7 25	1,119.0 5	1,119.0 5
Downstream Refining Throughput	kbd	357.5 25	439.0 (d)	414.0 5
Operational Availability (Refining)	%	N/A	N/A	94.5 5
(a) 2023 Production derived from 1.2% increase in 2024 production of 746 kboed.5(b) 2023 RRR is not explicitly stated; value is calculated based on 2022 and 2024 data points and may not be precise.(c) 2024 Reserve Life based on May 2024 report of 7.1 years for oil.26(d) 2023 Refining Throughput derived from 5.8% decrease in 2024 throughput of 414 kbd.5

3. Industry & Macroeconomic Context

3.1. Colombian Oil & Gas Sector

The oil and gas sector is a cornerstone of the Colombian economy. It accounts for approximately 5.3% of GDP, generates over half of the nation’s export earnings, and contributes more than 10% of total government revenues.³⁷ As Latin America’s third-largest oil producer, the health of the industry, and by extension Ecopetrol, is inextricably linked to the country’s macroeconomic stability.³⁷

Colombia is a net exporter of crude oil but faces a growing deficit in natural gas. The country lost its gas self-sufficiency in late 2024 and has become increasingly reliant on LNG imports to meet demand.⁴⁰ Analysts project a widening supply gap, which could lead to higher energy costs and potential shortages, posing a significant economic risk.⁴¹

The regulatory environment is dominated by the policy of the current administration under President Gustavo Petro, which has halted the issuance of new oil and gas exploration licenses.⁶ This policy, part of a broader “Just Energy Transition” plan, aims to wean the country off its dependency on fossil fuels. While existing contracts are being honored, the ban on new exploration creates a deeply uncertain future and has significantly dampened long-term investment appetite from private international oil companies.¹⁴

This policy creates a strategic paradox for the nation. The government’s ambitious energy transition plan requires tens of billions of dollars in funding.¹³ The primary source of national revenue to finance such a plan is the oil and gas industry itself, through taxes, royalties, and dividends from Ecopetrol. By actively constraining the long-term growth potential of this crucial revenue-generating sector, the government is undermining the primary funding mechanism for its own transition policy. This internal contradiction suggests the current policy may be fiscally unsustainable, creating a binary outcome for investors: either the policy is eventually reversed out of fiscal necessity, or it leads to a severe economic crisis for Colombia, with Ecopetrol at its epicenter.

The security situation remains a persistent operational challenge. Illegal armed groups, particularly the National Liberation Army (ELN), frequently sabotage critical infrastructure.¹² Pipelines are a primary target, with attacks causing production shut-ins, environmental damage, and increased security and repair costs.²⁹ Reports from 2024 and 2025 indicate a deteriorating security environment in several key operating regions, adding another layer of risk and cost to doing business in the country.¹³

3.2. Global Energy Context

While a significant regional producer, Colombia is not large enough to influence global oil prices. Its production is primarily composed of heavy, sour crude oil grades, with Castilla Blend being a key export benchmark.³⁴ The price Ecopetrol realizes for its crude is benchmarked against global markers like Brent but is subject to a quality and transportation differential.

Heavy sour crudes typically trade at a discount to lighter, sweeter grades like Brent or WTI because they are more energy-intensive and costly to refine.⁴⁷ This discount, or differential, is not fixed and can fluctuate based on several factors, including the global supply of heavy versus light crude, the demand from refineries configured to process heavy oil (particularly those on the U.S. Gulf Coast), and shipping costs. For example, in early 2025, the discount for Castilla Blend relative to Brent narrowed to a four-year low of approximately $3.50 per barrel, a significant improvement from the $15.17 per barrel differential seen in early 2023.⁴⁹ Accurately forecasting Ecopetrol’s revenue requires an understanding of both the headline Brent price and the dynamics of this fluctuating heavy crude differential.

4. Financial Performance & Capital Allocation

4.1. Historical Performance

Ecopetrol’s financial performance is highly cyclical and directly correlated with the global price of crude oil. The company’s results over the past decade clearly illustrate its sensitivity to commodity market fluctuations.

• Revenue and Net Income: Financial results peaked during the high-price environment of 2022, when the company reported annual revenue of $35.3 billion (converted from COP) and a net income of $7.0 billion (converted from COP).²⁵ Performance has since moderated in line with lower oil prices; in 2024, Ecopetrol registered revenues of COP 133.3 trillion (approx. $33.7 billion) and a net income of COP 14.9 trillion (approx. $3.8 billion).⁵ This cyclicality is a defining feature of the company, which experienced a significant net loss in 2015 during the last major oil price downturn.¹⁸
• Profitability and Returns: Despite revenue volatility, Ecopetrol has maintained strong underlying profitability. The EBITDA margin was an exceptional 47.2% in 2022 and remained robust at 41% in 2024, indicating effective operational cost control.⁵ This profitability translates into strong shareholder returns during favorable market conditions. Return on Equity (ROE) reached 34.7% in 2022 before moderating to 18.7% in 2024, a level that is still considered strong for the industry.⁵²
• Cash Flow: Free cash flow (FCF) generation is also volatile, driven by the interplay of operating cash flow (which follows oil prices) and capital expenditures. The company generated substantial FCF in 2022 ($17.5 billion) but this can swing significantly in other years depending on the investment cycle and commodity prices.⁵³

4.2. Capital Allocation Strategy

Ecopetrol’s capital allocation reflects its dual mandate of funding its own growth while also serving as a major source of revenue for its majority shareholder, the Colombian government.

• Capital Expenditures (CAPEX): Investment has been ramping up since the pandemic-era lows. CAPEX totaled $5.5 billion in 2022 and increased to $6.1 billion in 2024.⁵ The 2024 investment plan allocates approximately 70% of its budget to the upstream production segment, underscoring the immediate priority of sustaining output from existing fields in the absence of new exploration opportunities.⁹
• Dividend Policy: Ecopetrol has a history of paying substantial dividends, particularly in years of high profitability. The dividend for the 2022 fiscal year was the highest in the company’s history.⁵⁴ The formal policy targets an ordinary dividend payout of 60% of the prior year’s net income, with the potential for extraordinary dividends on top of that.⁵⁴ This results in a high dividend yield, which is attractive to income-focused investors but also reflects the market’s perception of the stock’s risk profile.⁵⁵
• Debt Management: The company is an active participant in international debt markets, regularly issuing bonds and securing loans from international banks to finance its investment plan and refinance maturing obligations.¹⁶

The company’s capital allocation strategy reveals a structural conflict driven by its government ownership. The Colombian government relies heavily on Ecopetrol’s dividends to fund its national budget, creating pressure for the company to maintain a high payout ratio.⁵⁷ At the same time, Ecopetrol faces a critical need for massive long-term capital investment to fund capital-intensive enhanced oil recovery projects, execute its energy transition strategy, and develop its offshore gas discoveries. A high dividend payout directly reduces the retained earnings available for this reinvestment, forcing the company to rely more heavily on debt markets and increasing its financial leverage. This tension between the short-term fiscal needs of the government and the long-term strategic health of the company is a classic risk inherent in state-controlled enterprises.

4.3. Current Financial Health

• Liquidity and Debt: As of year-end 2024, Ecopetrol’s total debt stood at $27.24 billion.⁵⁸ The gross debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio was a manageable 2.2 times, having increased from a low of 1.5 times at the end of 2022 due to lower EBITDA and continued high investment levels.⁵
• Credit Ratings: The company’s credit rating is intrinsically linked to, and effectively capped by, the sovereign rating of Colombia. As of early 2024, Fitch Ratings maintained Ecopetrol’s rating at ‘BB+’ with a stable outlook, while Moody’s held the rating at ‘Ba1’, also with a stable outlook.¹¹ These are speculative-grade, or “high-yield,” ratings, which reflect the perceived macroeconomic and political risks associated with Colombia.
• Currency Exposure: Ecopetrol operates with significant foreign currency exposure. Its revenues from crude oil sales are primarily denominated in U.S. dollars, while a large portion of its operating costs, taxes, and dividend payments are in Colombian Pesos (COP). This dynamic creates a natural hedge against a weakening peso but also means that fluctuations in the USD/COP exchange rate can have a material impact on its reported financial results in COP.⁵⁹

Table 2: Historical Financial Summary (2015-2024)

Fiscal Year	Revenue (USD B)	EBITDA (USD B)	EBITDA Margin (%)	Net Income (USD B)	ROE (%)	Total Debt (USD B)	Net Debt / EBITDA (x)
2024	33.7 (a)	13.8 (a)	41.0% 5	3.8 (a)	18.7% 52	27.24 58	2.2 5
2023	35.3 (b)	17.6 (b)	49.8% (b)	6.1 (b)	25.2% 52	27.58 58	1.6 (e)
2022	35.3 (c)	16.7 (c)	47.2% 25	7.0 (c)	34.7% 52	23.75 58	1.5 25
2021	23.2 61	10.1 (f)	43.5% (f)	4.6 51	21.8% 52	23.36 58	2.3 (f)
2020	13.2 61	5.3 (f)	40.2% (f)	0.4 51	6.5% 52	13.66 58	2.6 (f)
2019	22.5 61	10.3 (f)	45.8% (f)	4.1 51	24.4% 52	11.64 58	1.1 (f)
2018	24.1 61	11.1 (f)	46.0% (f)	3.9 51	19.9% 52	11.72 58	1.1 (f)
2017	18.2 61	7.9 (f)	43.4% (f)	2.2 51	15.0% 52	14.83 58	1.9 (f)
2016	14.6 61	5.7 (f)	39.0% (f)	0.5 51	3.6% 52	17.65 58	3.1 (f)
2015	18.2 61	5.1 (f)	28.0% (f)	-1.2 51	-9.2% 52	16.96 58	3.3 (f)
(Note: Financial figures converted from COP to USD at respective average annual exchange rates where necessary. Historical data sourced from multiple filings and data providers may have slight variations due to currency conversion methodologies.)(a) Converted from COP figures in 2024 report.5(b) Calculated based on 6.8% decrease from 2023 to 2024 for revenue.5 Net income from.51 EBITDA calculated from margin and revenue.(c) Converted from COP figures in 2022 report.25(e) Estimated based on debt levels and EBITDA.(f) EBITDA and Net Debt/EBITDA for 2015-2021 are estimated based on available data and may not be precise.

Table 3: Capital Allocation Summary (FY 2022-2024)

Allocation (USD Millions)	2022	2023 (Plan)	2024 (Plan)
Total Investment	$5,488 25	$5,800 – $6,800 22	$5,600 – $6,600 16
By Segment:
Exploration & Production	$3,577 (a)	N/A	$3,520 – $4,130 16
Refining & Petrochemicals	$438 9	N/A	~$1,460 16
Midstream (Transport)	$320 9	N/A	N/A
Transmission (ISA) & Low Carbon	$1,020 (b)	N/A	$2,270 – $2,660 16
Corporate & Other	$134 9	N/A	N/A
Dividends Paid (c)	$5.9 Billion (d)	$5.9 Billion (d)	$3.8 Billion (d)
(a) Sum of Production and Exploration investments.9(b) Total ISA investment.9(c) Dividends paid during the calendar year, corresponding to the prior fiscal year’s earnings.(d) Dividend figures are estimates based on payout ratios and net income for the corresponding fiscal years.54

5. Valuation Analysis

5.1. Peer Group Benchmarking

A comparison of Ecopetrol’s valuation multiples against its closest regional peers—Brazil’s Petrobras (PBR) and Argentina’s YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF)—reveals a valuation that is heavily influenced by its specific risk profile.

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Ecopetrol consistently trades at a low P/E ratio. As of mid-2025, its P/E ratio was approximately 5.9x.⁴ This is comparable to Petrobras, which also trades at a low single-digit P/E ratio, reflecting the political risks associated with state-controlled entities in the region.⁶² YPF’s P/E ratio has been more volatile but also trends in the high single digits.⁶³ This low P/E multiple across the peer group suggests that the market assigns a significant discount to these companies relative to international oil majors, which often trade at P/E ratios above 10x.
• Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA): This metric, which accounts for debt, provides a more comprehensive valuation picture. While specific real-time data is not available, the low market capitalizations relative to the substantial EBITDA generation of all three companies suggest that EV/EBITDA multiples are also compressed across the board.
• Dividend Yield: Ecopetrol stands out for its exceptionally high dividend yield, which has recently been in the high teens (e.g., 16.9% – 19.5%).⁵⁵ This is significantly higher than most international peers and reflects two factors: a generous dividend payout policy driven by the government’s fiscal needs and a depressed stock price due to perceived risks. While attractive to income investors, such a high yield can also be a signal of high risk and potential unsustainability.

5.2. Historical Valuation

Ecopetrol’s current P/E ratio of around 5.6x to 5.9x is low on an absolute basis but is not significantly out of line with its own historical valuation, which has often been in the single digits, especially during periods of political uncertainty or lower oil prices.⁴ The market has consistently applied a “Colombia discount” to the stock, and the current political environment has likely entrenched this discount.

5.3. Asset-Based Considerations

A sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis would likely reveal significant underlying value not reflected in the current market capitalization. The company’s three main components have distinct characteristics:

1. Midstream (Cenit): A stable, regulated utility-like business with predictable cash flows. This segment could command a high multiple if valued as a standalone infrastructure company.
2. Transmission (ISA): A geographically diversified, regulated utility business with long-term concessions and dollar-denominated revenues. This segment also warrants a higher, more stable valuation multiple.
3. Upstream & Downstream: The traditional, cyclical oil and gas business. This segment’s value is highly dependent on long-term oil price assumptions and, critically, on the political outlook for reserve replacement.

The consolidated company’s low valuation multiple is driven almost entirely by the market’s negative perception of the risks associated with the upstream business and the overarching sovereign risk of Colombia. The stable, high-quality cash flows from Cenit and ISA provide a significant “margin of safety” to the valuation, but this value is obscured by the political overhang.

Table 4: Peer Valuation Comparison (as of mid-2025)

Metric	Ecopetrol (EC)	Petrobras (PBR)	YPF (YPF)
Market Capitalization (USD B)	~$18.3 63	~$78.1 62	~$13.0 63
P/E Ratio (TTM)	~5.9x 4	~4.5x 62	~10.6x 63
Price/Book Ratio (TTM)	~0.9x 55	N/A	N/A
Dividend Yield (Forward)	~17.1% 63	N/A	N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA (TTM)	~2.2x 5	~1.5x 65	~1.9x 66
(Note: Data is compiled from various sources and reflects approximate values as of mid-2025. Market data is subject to constant change.)

6. Comprehensive Risk Assessment

The investment case for Ecopetrol is dominated by a complex and interconnected set of risks. While the company faces standard operational and market risks inherent to the oil and gas industry, these are magnified by a uniquely challenging political and security environment in Colombia.

6.1. Regulatory & Political Risks

This is the most significant category of risk for Ecopetrol.

• Government Policy: The current administration’s decision to halt the issuance of new oil and gas exploration contracts is an existential threat to the company’s long-term ability to replace reserves and sustain production.⁶ This policy directly undermines the value of the upstream segment.
• Majority Shareholder Influence: With the Colombian government owning 88.49% of the company, there is a substantial risk that strategic decisions will be made to benefit the state’s fiscal needs rather than to maximize long-term value for all shareholders.⁹ This can manifest in a dividend policy that prioritizes short-term cash for the government over long-term reinvestment in the business.
• Tax Regime: The oil and gas sector is a primary source of tax revenue for Colombia. The government could implement new taxes or increase royalty rates, which would directly impact Ecopetrol’s profitability.⁶⁷

6.2. Operational Risks

• Security Threats: Ecopetrol’s vast network of pipelines and production facilities are frequent targets for sabotage by illegal armed groups.¹² Attacks on critical pipelines like the Caño Limón-Coveñas cause production shut-ins, revenue losses, and significant repair and environmental remediation costs. The security situation has reportedly deteriorated in 2024 and 2025, increasing the frequency of these disruptions.¹³
• Reserve Replacement: Even without the political ban on exploration, replacing reserves is a fundamental challenge for any oil company. Ecopetrol’s short reserve life of around seven years makes this an acute risk.¹⁴ The company is entirely dependent on enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques and the development of existing discoveries to offset production, which is a less certain and often more costly method than new exploration.
• Environmental and Safety Incidents: The nature of oil and gas operations carries inherent risks of spills, leaks, and other industrial accidents, which can result in significant financial liabilities and reputational damage.⁶⁹

6.3. Financial and Market Risks

• Commodity Price Exposure: Ecopetrol’s revenue and profitability are directly exposed to the volatile prices of crude oil and natural gas.⁷⁰ A sustained downturn in global energy prices would severely impact its cash flow, profitability, and ability to fund its investment program.
• Currency Risk: The company’s revenues are largely in U.S. dollars, while a significant portion of its expenses and liabilities are in Colombian Pesos. A sharp appreciation of the COP against the USD would negatively impact its reported earnings and margins.⁵⁹
• Colombian Economic Risk: As the country’s largest company, Ecopetrol’s performance is tied to the health of the Colombian economy. A domestic recession would reduce local demand for fuels and could exacerbate social and political instability.

Table 5: Summary of Key Risks and Potential Mitigants

Risk Category	Key Risk	Potential Mitigants / Counterarguments
Regulatory & Political	Government halts new exploration, leading to terminal decline in reserves.	Fiscal pressure may force a policy reversal; focus on EOR and existing discoveries can delay decline; ISA acquisition diversifies revenue away from this risk.
	State influence leads to value-destructive capital allocation (e.g., excessive dividends).	Minority shareholder rights exist; need to access international capital markets imposes some discipline; ISA operates with a degree of independence.
Operational	Frequent sabotage of pipelines and infrastructure disrupts production.	Investment in security and surveillance; use of alternative transport routes; resilient midstream segment can partially offset upstream losses.
	Failure to replace reserves leads to rapid production decline.	Aggressive investment in EOR technologies; development of offshore gas discoveries (long-term); potential for policy change.
Financial & Market	Sustained downturn in global oil prices severely impacts cash flow.	Low production costs provide some margin cushion; stable cash flows from Cenit and ISA provide a financial buffer; flexible capex program.

7. Management Quality & Governance

7.1. Leadership Assessment

Ecopetrol’s senior leadership has undergone significant changes following the election of the current government, reflecting the influence of the state as the majority shareholder.

• Chief Executive Officer (CEO): Ricardo Roa Barragán was appointed CEO in April 2023.⁷² He is a mechanical engineer with extensive experience in the energy sector, having previously served as President of Grupo Energía de Bogotá (EEB) and Transportadora de Gas Internacional (TGI).⁷² His background is heavily weighted towards the gas and power sectors, aligning with the government’s energy transition focus. His stated priority is to lead a “fair and sustainable energy transition” while maintaining the company’s financial soundness.⁷⁵
• Chairwoman of the Board: Mónica de Greiff Lindo was elected Chairwoman in August 2025, having served on the board since October 2022.⁷⁶ She is a lawyer with a long and distinguished career in both the public and private sectors, including serving as Colombia’s Minister of Justice, CEO of Grupo Energía de Bogotá, and President of the Bogotá Chamber of Commerce.⁷⁸

The management team faces the immense challenge of executing a complex strategy that must satisfy the conflicting demands of its majority shareholder’s political agenda and the economic realities of the global energy market.

7.2. Corporate Governance

Corporate governance at Ecopetrol is fundamentally shaped by the dominant ownership stake of the Colombian government.

• Board Composition: The Board of Directors consists of nine members appointed by the General Shareholders’ Meeting.⁸⁰ The government, through its 88.49% stake, effectively controls the composition of the board. There has been significant turnover on the board in recent years, with the average tenure being very short at just 1.4 years as of mid-2025.⁸¹ This suggests a lack of stability and continuity at the highest level of oversight. The board is divided into independent and non-independent members, though the practical independence of any member can be questioned given the government’s controlling influence.⁸⁰
• Government Influence: The government’s control extends beyond the board to major strategic decisions, including CEO appointments, capital expenditure plans, and dividend policy. This creates a significant risk of conflicts of interest between the government (as majority shareholder and sovereign) and minority shareholders. The government’s need for fiscal revenue can lead it to advocate for higher dividend payouts than might be prudent for the company’s long-term health and investment needs.⁵⁷
• Minority Shareholder Protection: While Ecopetrol is listed on both the Colombian Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and is subject to their respective governance and disclosure requirements, the overwhelming control of the state limits the effective power of minority shareholders to influence corporate policy.⁸²

8. Investment Thesis Summary

The analysis of Ecopetrol S.A. reveals a company with a strong operational base and high-quality assets, but one that is subject to extraordinary political and regulatory risks that dominate its investment profile. The core tension lies between the company’s intrinsic value and the policies of its controlling shareholder, the Colombian government.

8.1. Bull Case: Value Unlocked by Pragmatism

The bull case for Ecopetrol is predicated on the eventual triumph of economic pragmatism over political ideology.

• Value Creation Drivers: The primary catalyst would be a partial or full reversal of the current government’s policy of banning new oil and gas exploration. Faced with declining fiscal revenues from a shrinking oil sector and a potential natural gas crisis, a future administration (or even the current one) may be forced to adopt a more moderate stance to ensure energy security and economic stability.
• Operational Leverage: Ecopetrol has demonstrated strong operational execution, achieving record production from its existing assets.⁵ The company has low production costs, providing significant operating leverage to a higher oil price environment. A combination of higher prices and stable production would generate massive free cash flow.
• Underlying Asset Value: The company’s current market valuation appears to undervalue its high-quality, stable midstream (Cenit) and electricity transmission (ISA) assets. These segments provide a strong, reliable cash flow stream that offers a significant margin of safety and a floor to the valuation.
• High Dividend Yield: For income-oriented investors willing to tolerate the risk, the stock offers an exceptionally high dividend yield, providing a substantial cash return while waiting for a potential re-rating of the shares.⁵⁵

8.2. Bear Case: The Political Overhang Prevails

The bear case is centered on the risk that the current political and regulatory environment becomes a permanent feature, leading to the gradual liquidation of the company’s core business.

• Value Destruction Risks: The continuation of the ban on new exploration will make the decline in reserves and production inevitable. With a reserve life of only ~7 years, the upstream segment would enter a terminal decline phase, destroying the company’s primary earnings engine.¹⁴
• Security and Social Instability: A deteriorating security situation could lead to more frequent and severe production disruptions, further eroding cash flow and increasing costs.¹³ Social unrest could also hinder operations and delay projects.
• Capital Starvation: The government’s continued demand for high dividend payouts to fund its budget could starve the company of the necessary capital to invest in EOR, develop its offshore gas finds, and execute its energy transition strategy, leading to a hollowing out of the company’s asset base.
• Multiple Compression: As the market increasingly prices Ecopetrol as a company with a finite production life and limited growth prospects, its valuation multiples could remain permanently compressed or even contract further.

8.3. Risk-Reward Assessment

Investing in Ecopetrol is less a bet on geology or operational excellence and more a direct bet on the future political and economic trajectory of Colombia. The company’s operational capabilities are not in doubt, but its ability to deploy them for long-term value creation is severely constrained.

The downside is protected to some extent by the stable cash flows from the Cenit and ISA segments, which provide a floor value. However, the upside potential is capped by the significant political uncertainty. A positive resolution—namely, a return to a more pragmatic energy policy that allows for new exploration—could lead to a substantial re-rating of the stock. Conversely, an entrenchment of the current policies could see the company’s core upstream business slowly liquidate over the next decade, turning Ecopetrol into a smaller, less profitable entity heavily reliant on its regulated assets. The risk-reward profile is therefore highly asymmetric and depends almost entirely on an investor’s view of Colombian political risk.

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