Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive investment research analysis of Haypp Group AB (publ) (“Haypp” or “the Company”), a market-leading, pure-play e-commerce specialist in the global smokeless nicotine market. The Company is strategically positioned at the confluence of two significant secular trends: the consumer shift from combustible tobacco to reduced-risk products (RRPs) and the structural migration of retail from offline to online channels.¹ Haypp’s business model is centered on a multi-brand, multi-country portfolio of e-commerce storefronts that offer a wide assortment of smokeless products, primarily modern nicotine pouches (NPs) and traditional Swedish snus.

The core investment thesis for Haypp Group is predicated on its ability to capture a significant share of the rapidly expanding global oral nicotine market. This growth is evidenced by a consistent top-line compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 20% in recent years, with net sales reaching SEK 3.68 billion in 2024.² The primary engine of this expansion is the explosive consumer adoption of NPs, which saw volume growth of 41% in 2023 and 40% in the first quarter of 2024, and now constitute the majority of the Company’s sales volume.⁴ A critical milestone was achieved in early 2024 when the Company’s “Growth Markets” segment, which includes the strategically important U.S. market, reached EBITDA profitability, validating the scalability of its international expansion model.⁶ Management has set an ambitious target of achieving at least SEK 5 billion in net sales by 2025 through organic growth alone.¹

This compelling growth narrative is, however, balanced by a series of significant and complex risks. The most prominent of these is the uncertain and fragmented regulatory landscape. In Europe, nicotine pouches exist in a legal grey area, with the upcoming revision of the EU’s Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) posing a material threat of stricter controls or flavor bans.⁷ In the U.S., while the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has established a path to market authorization, the process is arduous and subject to political and public health pressures, particularly concerning youth access.⁹

Furthermore, Haypp faces intense competition from the world’s largest tobacco companies, including Philip Morris International (PMI), British American Tobacco (BAT), and Altria Group. These vertically integrated incumbents own the dominant NP brands (ZYN, Velo, and on!, respectively), possess vast financial resources, and are developing their own direct-to-consumer (D2C) capabilities.¹¹ Haypp’s defensibility rests on its value proposition as a neutral, multi-brand aggregator with a superior online selection, strong organic search engine positioning, and a growing, high-margin data and insights business.

The Company’s valuation reflects this dichotomy. Current trading multiples place a significant premium on its high-growth profile, pricing it more like a disruptive e-commerce company than a traditional tobacco-related entity. This valuation implicitly assumes a continuation of strong top-line growth and margin expansion, a scenario that is highly dependent on a stable regulatory environment and the Company’s ability to navigate the competitive pressures from its larger supplier-competitors. This report will dissect each of these factors to provide a comprehensive framework for evaluating the opportunities and risks inherent in Haypp Group.

Corporate Profile and Business Model

The Haypp Group E-Commerce Ecosystem

Haypp Group AB (publ) is a specialized online retailer focused exclusively on the sale of smokeless nicotine products. The company’s stated mission is to “Inspire healthier enjoyment for millions” by providing consumers with accessible and appealing alternatives to combustible cigarettes.⁵ Headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden, the epicenter of the traditional snus market, Haypp has leveraged its Scandinavian roots to become a leading global e-commerce player in the modern oral nicotine category. The company’s shares have been publicly traded on the Nasdaq First North Growth Market in Stockholm since its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on October 13, 2021.¹⁶

The foundation of Haypp’s business is a sophisticated multi-brand, multi-country e-commerce platform strategy. Rather than operating a single monolithic storefront, the Company manages a portfolio of eleven distinct e-commerce brands, each meticulously tailored to the language, culture, and consumer preferences of its target market.⁵ This portfolio includes flagship sites such as

snusbolaget.se in Sweden, nicokick.com in the United States, snushjem.no in Norway, and haypp.com in the United Kingdom and Germany.¹⁷ This decentralized approach enables highly targeted marketing, localized customer service, and the ability to cultivate specific brand identities that resonate with different consumer segments, from price-conscious buyers to premium product seekers.

Value Proposition and Revenue Streams

Haypp’s business model is designed to create a virtuous cycle by offering a compelling value proposition to both consumers and product suppliers.

For consumers, the core proposition is built on three pillars: superior selection, competitive pricing, and convenience. Unlike traditional brick-and-mortar convenience stores, which typically stock a limited range of top-selling products, Haypp’s online platforms offer an extensive and frequently updated assortment of brands, flavors, and nicotine strengths.¹⁸ This is a particularly strong differentiator in markets like the U.S., where the offline channel is heavily concentrated in a single brand (ZYN), forcing consumers who wish to explore the wider category to seek out online specialists.¹⁸ The convenience of online ordering, subscription services, and direct-to-home delivery further enhances the consumer experience.

For suppliers, which range from global tobacco giants to smaller, independent manufacturers, Haypp serves as a critical and efficient channel to market. It provides immediate access to a large and highly targeted base of over 1.1 million active consumers (as of 2024) who are actively seeking smokeless nicotine products.² This relationship is evolving beyond a simple retail function. Haypp is increasingly leveraging its most valuable asset: data. By analyzing purchasing patterns across millions of transactions, the Company can provide brand owners with invaluable market intelligence. This has given rise to an emerging and potentially high-margin “Media and Insights” business, where suppliers pay for consumer data and promotional placements on Haypp’s platforms, creating a secondary revenue stream that complements its primary D2C retail sales.⁴

Geographic Segmentation and Performance

The company’s strategic approach to market development is clearly reflected in its financial reporting, which is divided into three distinct segments: Core Markets, Growth Markets, and Emerging Markets.² This segmentation provides a transparent view of how the company allocates capital and manages the lifecycle of its geographic and product expansions.

• Core Markets (Sweden & Norway): These represent Haypp’s most mature and profitable operations. Benefiting from a long history of smokeless tobacco use and high online penetration (~30% in Sweden), these markets serve as the company’s primary cash flow generator.⁴ In the first quarter of 2024, the Core Markets segment generated SEK 627.7 million in net sales and delivered a robust EBITDA margin of 8.6%.⁶ The primary challenge in this segment is managing the structural decline of the traditional snus category. However, this headwind is being successfully counteracted by vigorous growth in the NP category, which saw its volume increase by 32% year-over-year in Q1 2024.⁶
• Growth Markets (U.S., UK, Germany, Austria, Switzerland): This segment is the main engine of the company’s top-line growth. It comprises markets with lower but rapidly growing online penetration for oral nicotine products. In Q1 2024, the segment’s net sales surged by 46% to SEK 241.8 million, accounting for nearly 80% of the entire group’s year-over-year sales increase.⁶ This segment reached a pivotal strategic and financial milestone in the same quarter by achieving EBITDA profitability for the first time. This transition from a cash-burning investment phase to a profitable, self-sustaining operation provides powerful validation for the scalability and long-term viability of Haypp’s international expansion model.
• Emerging Markets (New Categories & Geographies): Formally established in Q1 2024, this segment acts as an incubator for the company’s future growth initiatives. It currently houses the strategic expansion into the nicotine vape category in the UK, Germany, and Sweden.⁶ As expected for a new venture, this segment is in a heavy investment phase, generating initial sales of SEK 8.1 million with a corresponding EBITDA loss of SEK 7.0 million in Q1 2024.⁶

The progression from the investment-heavy Emerging segment to the hyper-growth Growth segment, and ultimately to the profitable Core segment, reveals a clear and repeatable strategic playbook. The company utilizes the stable cash flows from its mature Core markets to fund the initial losses and infrastructure build-out required to establish a presence in new markets. As these new markets scale, as demonstrated by the Growth segment’s recent achievement of profitability, they begin to contribute financially, in turn providing the resources to fund the next wave of expansion. This disciplined, self-funding capital allocation strategy de-risks future growth initiatives and provides investors with a transparent model for how the company intends to scale its operations globally. It reframes the losses in the Emerging segment not as a financial drain, but as a calculated investment with a proven pathway to future returns.

Table 1: Segment Financial Performance (Q1 2024 vs. Q1 2023)

Segment	Net Sales (Q1 2024, MSEK)	Net Sales (Q1 2023, MSEK)	YoY Growth (%)	EBITDA (Q1 2024, MSEK)	EBITDA (Q1 2023, MSEK)	EBITDA Margin (Q1 2024, %)	EBITDA Margin (Q1 2023, %)
Core Markets	672.7	586.6	14.7%	72.6	41.4	10.8%	7.1%
Growth Markets	241.8	182.2	32.7%	6.3	-11.8	2.6%	-6.5%
Emerging Markets	29.3	8.1	261.7%	-10.4	-7.0	-35.5%	-86.4%
Group Total	Data aggregated from segment breakdown	Data aggregated from segment breakdown	Calculated	Data aggregated from segment breakdown	Data aggregated from segment breakdown	Calculated	Calculated

Note: Data sourced from quarterly reports.² Some figures may be subject to rounding and reconciliation items not detailed in the source material.

The Global Oral Nicotine Market: A Structural Growth Story

Market Size, Growth, and Key Drivers

Haypp Group operates within one of the fastest-growing segments of the broader consumer staples industry. The global market for modern oral nicotine products is undergoing a period of explosive expansion, driven by powerful and enduring consumer trends. The company sits at the nexus of two fundamental market shifts: the migration of consumers from harmful combustible tobacco products to smokeless alternatives, and the parallel migration of retail activity from physical stores to online platforms.¹

Market research from multiple sources corroborates the scale and velocity of this growth. Grand View Research projects the global modern oral nicotine products market to expand from USD 5.5 billion in 2023 to USD 26.4 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.2%.²⁰ Other analyses suggest even more rapid growth, particularly in the crucial U.S. market, with forecasted CAGRs ranging from 29.6% to as high as 32.5% through the end of the decade.²¹ Haypp Group itself references market estimates projecting the combined nicotine pouch and snus market to more than double from SEK 27 billion in 2020 to SEK 60 billion by 2025.¹

This secular growth is underpinned by several key drivers:

• Harm Reduction: The primary catalyst is a profound shift in public health awareness. As consumers become increasingly educated about the severe health risks associated with smoking, they are actively seeking alternatives that are perceived as being significantly less harmful. Oral nicotine products, which deliver nicotine without the toxic combustion of cigarettes, are a direct beneficiary of this trend.¹¹
• Product Innovation and Flavor Variety: Unlike the relatively static cigarette category, the oral nicotine market is characterized by rapid innovation. Manufacturers are continuously introducing new flavors, formats, and nicotine strengths to cater to a wide spectrum of consumer preferences. Flavored products are a particularly potent driver of adoption, accounting for approximately 90% of the total market, with mint, fruit, and coffee profiles being especially popular.²⁰
• Convenience and Discretion: The intrinsic characteristics of nicotine pouches offer a significant advantage in modern society. Their smoke-free, vapor-free, and spit-free nature allows for discreet use in a wide variety of settings, including workplaces, public transport, and social venues where smoking and vaping are prohibited.²²
• E-commerce Channel Growth: The product’s characteristics—small, lightweight, non-perishable, and with a high purchase frequency—make it ideally suited for e-commerce. The online distribution channel for oral nicotine is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 28%, outpacing the growth of the overall market as consumers embrace the convenience, selection, and competitive pricing offered by online retailers like Haypp.²⁰

The Regulatory Gauntlet: A Tale of Two Continents

Despite the powerful market tailwinds, the single greatest variable influencing the future of the oral nicotine industry is regulation. The legal and political landscape is highly complex, fragmented, and subject to abrupt change, creating a challenging operating environment that differs significantly between Europe and the United States.

• Europe: The European regulatory framework is a patchwork of national laws and overarching EU directives. The EU’s Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) famously bans the sale of snus in all member states with the exception of Sweden, a carve-out that has existed for decades.²⁵ Modern nicotine pouches, because they do not contain tobacco leaf, currently occupy a legal loophole and are not explicitly covered by the TPD. This has left their regulation to the discretion of individual member states, resulting in a fragmented and uncertain market.⁷ This regulatory ambiguity is a double-edged sword: it has allowed for market entry, but it also creates significant risk. The upcoming revision of the TPD (often referred to as TPD3) is a major point of concern for the industry. A worst-case scenario could see the EU implement a bloc-wide ban on flavored products or classify nicotine pouches in a highly restrictive category. Haypp’s management has expressed the view that a framework for regulation is more probable than an outright ban, but the risk remains material.⁶ The potential for divergent national approaches is already evident, with France notifying the EU of its intent to prohibit oral nicotine products entirely ²⁶, while other nations like Sweden have adjusted excise taxes to favor less harmful products over cigarettes.²⁷
• United States: In contrast to Europe’s fragmented approach, the U.S. market is primarily governed by a centralized federal body: the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). All new tobacco products, including nicotine pouches, must undergo the rigorous Premarket Tobacco Product Application (PMTA) process to be legally marketed.²⁹ The statutory standard requires manufacturers to provide extensive scientific evidence demonstrating that their product is “appropriate for the protection of the public health”.⁹ This involves a complex balancing act, weighing the potential benefit of helping adult smokers switch to a less harmful alternative against the potential risk of attracting new users, particularly youth.

For years, the industry operated in a state of uncertainty. However, in a landmark series of decisions in 2024, the FDA granted marketing authorization to 20 varieties of Swedish Match’s ZYN nicotine pouches, including popular mint and wintergreen flavors.⁹ This was a pivotal moment, as it established a viable, albeit challenging, regulatory pathway for nicotine pouches in the U.S. It signaled that the FDA is willing to authorize flavored products if the scientific evidence of a net public health benefit is sufficiently compelling. Despite this progress, the regulatory environment remains fraught with risk. The PMTA process is long and costly, and many products from various manufacturers continue to be sold under a temporary enforcement discretion policy while their applications are pending.³⁰ Furthermore, state and local governments can impose their own, stricter regulations, such as the flavor bans enacted in California, which adds another layer of operational complexity.⁶

The intricate and demanding nature of these regulatory frameworks, while representing a primary business risk, also creates a significant barrier to entry. The substantial cost and expertise required to navigate the FDA’s PMTA process or the patchwork of European national laws effectively deter smaller, less-capitalized companies from entering the market. This dynamic benefits established players like Haypp, which have invested heavily in developing regulatory expertise and robust compliance systems as a core competency.² This regulatory complexity functions as a competitive moat, protecting incumbents from a flood of new entrants. However, the moat is precarious. A single adverse regulatory event—such as a widespread flavor ban in the EU, a reversal of the FDA’s stance on flavored products, or a crackdown on the online sale of products with pending PMTAs—could fundamentally damage the category and Haypp’s business model. Therefore, the very factor that insulates Haypp from smaller competitors also represents its most significant existential threat.

Competitive Landscape and Defensibility

The Incumbent Threat: Big Tobacco’s Incursion

The modern oral nicotine market, while innovative, is not a disruptive startup ecosystem. It is a domain increasingly dominated by the world’s largest and most powerful tobacco companies, who view the category as the future of their nicotine franchises. Haypp’s primary competitors are not other online retailers, but the very manufacturers of the products it sells.

The competitive landscape is highly concentrated around three global giants:

• Philip Morris International (PMI): Through its landmark acquisition of Swedish Match in late 2022, PMI became the undisputed leader in the oral nicotine space.³¹ Its flagship brand, ZYN, is a category-defining product, commanding a staggering retail market share of over 70% in the crucial U.S. market.¹³ PMI is leveraging its immense financial power to support ZYN’s growth, including an investment of over $800 million in new U.S. production facilities to meet soaring demand.³⁵
• British American Tobacco (BAT): BAT is a formidable global competitor with its Velo brand (formerly known as Lyft). The company is pursuing an aggressive international expansion strategy for Velo, establishing strong market positions in Europe and emerging markets.¹¹
• Altria Group: As the dominant player in the U.S. combustible cigarette market, Altria is defending its turf and pursuing growth through its on! brand of nicotine pouches. While a distant second to ZYN, on! is a significant player and benefits from Altria’s unparalleled U.S. distribution network and retail relationships.¹³

These incumbents possess formidable competitive advantages, including massive economies of scale in manufacturing and procurement, billion-dollar marketing budgets, and deeply entrenched relationships with offline retailers. Crucially, they are also building their own direct-to-consumer (D2C) capabilities. Swedish Match, now part of PMI, has operated its own e-commerce site in Sweden since 2016, providing a blueprint for a D2C strategy.³⁶ ZYN also maintains a D2C website in the U.S., though its operations have been temporarily paused due to regulatory inquiries into compliance with local flavor bans, highlighting the complexities of the D2C channel.³⁸

Haypp’s Competitive Moat and Defensibility

Against this backdrop of colossal competition, Haypp’s ability to survive and thrive depends on a set of distinct and defensible competitive advantages that are rooted in its specialized business model.

• The Aggregator Advantage: Haypp’s core strategic defense is its identity as a neutral, multi-brand platform. While an individual manufacturer like PMI is incentivized to promote only ZYN, Haypp offers the entire category. This makes its websites the destination of choice for consumers who are new to the category and want to explore different brands, as well as for experienced users seeking variety that is unavailable in their local convenience store.¹⁸
• E-commerce First-Mover Advantage: Having established its online presence early, Haypp has secured high rankings in organic search results for key terms related to snus and nicotine pouches. This is a durable asset that is becoming increasingly valuable. As regulators begin to restrict paid digital advertising for nicotine products (such as banning Google AdWords), the importance of organic, non-paid traffic grows. This makes it significantly more difficult and expensive for new entrants, including the large manufacturers, to replicate Haypp’s online visibility.¹⁸
• Data as a Differentiator: Haypp’s position as a multi-brand retailer gives it a unique vantage point on the market. It collects granular purchasing data across all major brands, flavors, and geographies. This data is a powerful asset that no single manufacturer can replicate. It allows Haypp to identify emerging trends faster, optimize its inventory and marketing, and creates the foundation for its high-margin “Media and Insights” business, which deepens its relationship with suppliers and makes them partners rather than just competitors.⁴
• High Customer Loyalty: The company’s business model, which includes subscription services, fosters strong customer retention. In 2023, Haypp reported that over 90% of its net sales were generated from returning customers, indicating a very “sticky” customer base that is costly for competitors to acquire.⁴

The dynamic between Haypp and its large tobacco competitors is not purely adversarial; it is a complex interplay of symbiosis and antagonism. When a company like PMI invests hundreds of millions of dollars in marketing to build brand awareness for ZYN, it is simultaneously growing the entire nicotine pouch category. This marketing creates new consumers who then turn to search engines to learn more or to purchase the product. Due to Haypp’s strong search engine optimization (SEO), a significant portion of this manufacturer-funded traffic is channeled directly to Haypp’s websites, such as nicokick.com in the U.S. This creates a highly efficient customer acquisition model where competitors’ marketing budgets effectively fuel Haypp’s growth. This effect was starkly illustrated during the ZYN supply shortages in 2024, when frustrated consumers flocked to Haypp’s sites, driving a 121% increase in the volume of non-ZYN brands as they sought alternatives.¹⁸

The strategic imperative for Haypp is to maintain this delicate balance. The risk is that this symbiotic relationship could turn antagonistic if the major brands decide to aggressively prioritize their own D2C channels, potentially by restricting supply to third-party retailers or engaging in predatory pricing. Consequently, the strength of Haypp’s relationships with its key suppliers is a critical, non-financial key performance indicator (KPI) that is central to the long-term investment thesis.

Table 2: Competitive Matrix: Haypp vs. Big Tobacco

Feature	Haypp Group AB (publ)	Philip Morris International (PMI)	British American Tobacco (BAT)	Altria Group
Business Model	E-commerce Aggregator / Multi-brand Retailer	Vertically Integrated Brand Owner	Vertically Integrated Brand Owner	Vertically Integrated Brand Owner
Key Oral Nicotine Brands	Sells all major brands, including ZYN, Velo, on!	ZYN (via Swedish Match)	Velo, Lyft	on!
Key Markets	Nordics, U.S., UK, Germany	Global (ZYN primarily U.S. & Nordics)	Global	U.S. only
Core Strengths	Wide assortment, e-commerce expertise, strong SEO, consumer data & insights, agility	Dominant brand (ZYN), manufacturing scale, massive marketing budget, global reach	Strong global brand (Velo), extensive distribution network, R&D capabilities	Unparalleled U.S. retail distribution, strong balance sheet, domestic focus
Potential Weaknesses	No proprietary products, reliance on suppliers, smaller scale, vulnerability to D2C shift	Potential channel conflict, slower to innovate on non-core brands, regulatory scrutiny on dominant brand	Brand recognition lags ZYN in the U.S., managing a complex global portfolio	Lagging market share in NPs, limited international presence, legacy business in decline

Financial Performance and Analysis (2022-2024)

Revenue Growth and Drivers

Haypp Group has established a consistent and impressive track record of strong top-line growth, reflecting the powerful secular tailwinds of its end market. The Company’s net sales have expanded at a rapid pace, growing from SEK 2,598.8 million in fiscal year 2022 to SEK 3,165.7 million in 2023, an increase of 21.8%. This momentum continued into 2024, with full-year net sales reaching SEK 3,679.8 million, representing a further 16.2% increase.²

This growth is multifaceted, driven by positive trends across key e-commerce metrics. The company is successfully expanding its user base, with the number of active customers increasing from 796,000 at the end of 2022 to 953,000 by the end of 2023.⁴ This expansion in the customer base has led to a corresponding increase in transaction volume, with the number of orders rising from 3.86 million in 2022 to 4.43 million in 2023.⁴ Concurrently, the company has demonstrated an ability to increase the value of each transaction, with the average order value (AOV) climbing from SEK 634 in 2022 to SEK 672 in 2023.⁴

The fundamental product-level driver of this financial performance is the rapid consumer shift towards modern nicotine pouches. The NP category is the clear engine of growth, exhibiting 41% volume growth in 2023, followed by another 40% increase in Q1 2024.⁴ This has resulted in a significant and favorable shift in the company’s product mix. As of Q1 2024, NPs accounted for 58% of the group’s total sales volume, up from 56% in the previous quarter, and management notes that this share continues to increase by approximately one percentage point per month.⁵ This rapid growth in the NP segment is crucial, as it is more than offsetting the anticipated structural decline in the company’s legacy traditional snus business, which is concentrated in its mature Core Markets.⁴

Profitability and Margin Evolution

Alongside robust revenue growth, Haypp has demonstrated significant progress in profitability, with a clear trend of margin expansion that points to increasing operating leverage as the business scales.

The company’s gross margin has been on a steady upward trajectory. After a slight improvement from 12.6% in FY 2022 to 12.7% in FY 2023, the rate of expansion accelerated significantly. The full-year gross margin for 2024 reached 15.0%, culminating in a strong 17.1% in the fourth quarter.³ This positive trend continued into the new year, with the gross margin for Q1 2024 recorded at 14.4%, a substantial 240 basis point improvement over the same period in the prior year.⁵ This margin enhancement is attributed to a combination of factors, including the favorable product mix shift towards higher-margin NPs, benefits of scale in procurement and the supply chain, and more efficient allocation of marketing investments.³

This improvement in gross profitability has flowed through to the operating level. Adjusted Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) has shown strong growth, increasing from SEK 58.5 million in 2022 to SEK 78.2 million in 2023, before making a substantial leap to SEK 134.5 million in 2024.² Consequently, the adjusted EBIT margin has expanded from 2.2% in 2022 to 2.5% in 2023, and reached a record 4.0% in Q4 2024.³ In Q1 2024, the adjusted EBIT margin stood at 3.5%, a 120 basis point improvement from 2.3% in Q1 2023, clearly demonstrating the company’s ability to translate top-line growth into enhanced profitability.⁵

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Analysis

Haypp Group maintains a healthy and prudently managed balance sheet, providing the financial stability and flexibility required to execute its growth strategy. The company’s leverage is modest, with the ratio of Net Debt to last-twelve-months (LTM) Adjusted EBITDA standing at 1.7x at the end of 2023, a slight improvement from 1.8x at the end of 2022.⁴

Perhaps the most significant financial development has been the dramatic improvement in the company’s cash generation capabilities. Cash flow from operating activities underwent a major positive swing, moving from an outflow of SEK 32.4 million in 2022 to a robust inflow of SEK 80.5 million in 2023.⁴ This positive momentum accelerated into 2024, with the company generating a strong SEK 121.6 million in operating cash flow in the first quarter alone.⁶ This marked improvement is indicative of both growing underlying profitability and more efficient working capital management, and it significantly enhances the company’s ability to self-fund its future growth initiatives.

The financial data from 2023 and early 2024 points to a clear inflection point in Haypp’s profitability profile. While strong revenue growth has been a consistent feature, the recent acceleration in margin expansion and the turn to strong positive operating cash flow represent a new phase in the company’s financial maturation. This inflection is directly linked to the strategic success of the Growth Markets segment. For several years, the substantial profits generated by the mature Core markets were effectively subsidizing the necessary investments and operating losses required to build scale in the Growth markets. The achievement of EBITDA profitability by the Growth segment in Q1 2024 marks the moment this dynamic shifted.⁶ The growth engine of the company is no longer a drag on group profitability but is now a positive contributor. This fundamentally alters the financial narrative from a “growth-at-all-costs” story to one of “profitable growth.” This shift de-risks the business model in the eyes of the market and provides the internally generated cash flow needed to fund the next wave of expansion in the Emerging segment, reducing reliance on external capital or increased leverage.

Strategic Outlook and Growth Levers

Management’s Strategic Priorities & Financial Targets

Haypp Group’s strategic direction is guided by a clear and consistent vision: to “Inspire Healthier Enjoyment for Millions” by facilitating the global transition from smoking to less harmful nicotine alternatives.⁴ To achieve this, management has established a set of strategic priorities and financial targets that emphasize capturing market share in the rapidly expanding RRP category. The near-to-medium-term strategy explicitly prioritizes top-line growth over margin maximization to solidify the company’s leadership position in key markets.⁴

Management has provided the market with clear and ambitious financial targets for the period ending in 2025:

• Net Sales Target: To achieve net sales of at least SEK 5 billion by the end of fiscal year 2025. This target is expected to be met predominantly through organic growth within the company’s existing business segments.¹
• Profitability Target: To reach an adjusted EBIT margin in the range of 5-7% for the combined Core and Growth markets business by 2025.⁵

The company’s leadership has demonstrated an adept ability to navigate the dynamic market conditions. The strategic pivot to aggressively grow the NP category has successfully compensated for the structural decline in the legacy snus business. Furthermore, the disciplined investment in the Growth Markets segment, culminating in its recent achievement of profitability, stands as a significant managerial accomplishment and a proof-of-concept for its expansion strategy.⁵

Organic Growth Opportunities

Haypp Group’s path to achieving its ambitious targets is paved with multiple layers of organic growth opportunities that leverage its existing assets and market position.

• Driving Online Penetration: The most significant and immediate growth lever is the continued shift of consumers to online channels. While online penetration in Haypp’s core Swedish market is relatively mature at approximately 30%, it remains in its infancy in many larger markets. The U.S., for example, had an estimated online penetration of only 3% in 2023.⁴ Capturing even a fraction of the inevitable migration of sales online in these large markets represents a massive runway for growth.
• Geographic Expansion: The company’s scalable and replicable technology platform is a key enabler of geographic expansion. Having established a successful playbook for entering and scaling in new markets (as seen with the Growth segment), Haypp plans to continue its methodical expansion into new, attractive European countries.⁴
• Category Adjacency Expansion: The recent foray into the nicotine vape market, housed within the new “Emerging” segment, is the first step in a broader strategy to expand across adjacent RRP categories. This strategy allows Haypp to leverage its existing customer base, brand equity, and logistics infrastructure to cross-sell new products, thereby increasing customer lifetime value and capturing a larger share of the consumer’s nicotine spending.⁴
• Technology and Data Monetization: Haypp considers its proprietary technology infrastructure a core competitive advantage that facilitates agile and efficient expansion.⁴ The continued development of its “Media and Insights” business represents another growth vector, transforming its data from an internal operational tool into an external, high-margin revenue stream.⁴

While the company’s growth trajectory is impressive, its sustainability hinges on a delicate balancing act. The overall corporate growth rate is not monolithic; it is the net result of a hyper-growth engine (the NP category) working against the headwind of a declining legacy business (the snus category). The future achievement of the company’s targets depends critically on the growth rate of NPs continuing to vastly outpace the rate of decline in snus. The observation in Q1 2024 that the snus decline had accelerated beyond recent trends is a crucial data point that highlights the vulnerability of this dynamic.⁶ Although management has stated it is implementing initiatives to moderate this decline, it underscores that the investment thesis is contingent on the successful execution of a dual strategy: managing a graceful decline in the old business while simultaneously fueling the rapid scaling of the new one. Any slowdown in NP adoption or a faster-than-anticipated deterioration in the snus market could materially impact the company’s ability to achieve its SEK 5 billion revenue target.

Capital Allocation & Financial Management

Capital Structure and Debt Management

Haypp Group employs a prudent and disciplined approach to its capital structure, ensuring it maintains the financial flexibility necessary to fund its ambitious growth agenda. The company’s balance sheet is not aggressively levered; at the conclusion of fiscal year 2023, the key metric of Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA stood at a conservative 1.7x.⁴ This level of indebtedness provides a stable financial foundation and allows the company to access capital markets if needed without being over-extended. The company also demonstrates active management of its capital structure, as seen in the May 2025 tender offer for outstanding warrants, which was settled through a combination of cash and a small, targeted issuance of new shares to manage dilution and optimize its equity base.⁴²

Reinvestment and Shareholder Returns

The company’s capital allocation policy is explicitly and transparently aligned with its current strategic phase of high growth. The primary and overriding priority for capital is reinvestment back into the business to capture the significant market opportunity in the global RRP space.

Management has clearly communicated this strategy to the market. It has publicly stated its intention to reinvest approximately 1-2 percentage points of the group’s adjusted EBIT margin through 2024 and 2025. This capital will be specifically directed towards funding the expansion initiatives housed within the “Emerging” segment, namely the entry into new European geographies and adjacent RRP categories like vapes.⁴

This growth-first philosophy is directly reflected in the company’s dividend policy. In line with its focus on reinvestment, the Board of Directors proposed that no dividend be paid for the 2023 fiscal year.⁴ Looking forward, the company has provided clear guidance that it will maintain a policy of prudent capital allocation and will begin to consider returning excess cash to shareholders

after the 2025 fiscal year.⁶ This timeline directly corresponds to the culmination of its current strategic plan and financial targets.

This capital allocation strategy can be understood as a clear, multi-phased approach to long-term shareholder value creation. The current phase (through 2025) is defined by high reinvestment to build scale and solidify market leadership. The significant improvement in operating cash flow generation, which began in earnest in 2023, is critical to this phase, as it allows the company to largely self-fund its growth without significant reliance on external capital.⁴ The second phase, post-2025, is envisioned as a period of capital return. The strategy presupposes that by this time, the Growth and Emerging markets will have reached a level of maturity and profitability where they are generating substantial free cash flow, similar to the Core markets today. At that point, the company will have “excess cash” beyond its reinvestment needs, which can then be returned to shareholders through dividends or share repurchases. This phased approach effectively manages investor expectations, framing the investment case as a long-term compounder rather than a short-term income vehicle. The credibility of this long-term promise of capital returns is intrinsically linked to the successful execution of the current growth strategy and the achievement of the 2025 financial targets.

Risk Assessment

Regulatory and Legal Risks

The most significant and potentially impactful risks facing Haypp Group are regulatory and legal in nature. The company operates in a highly scrutinized industry, and adverse regulatory changes could have a material and immediate impact on its operations and financial performance. This risk is a key catalyst that could fundamentally alter the investment thesis.

• Europe: The primary regulatory risk in Europe is the forthcoming revision of the EU’s Tobacco Products Directive (TPD). Because modern nicotine pouches do not contain tobacco, they currently fall outside the TPD’s scope, but the revision is widely expected to address this loophole. A negative outcome, such as an EU-wide ban on the characteristic flavors that are a key driver of the category’s appeal, or the reclassification of pouches into a highly restrictive regulatory category, would be severely detrimental to Haypp’s European business.⁷ Beyond the EU level, the risk of adverse national legislation is also significant. The French government’s 2025 proposal to ban oral nicotine products serves as a stark example of the potential for individual member states to enact prohibitive measures.²⁶
• United States: While the FDA’s authorization of 20 ZYN products has provided a degree of regulatory clarity, significant risks remain.¹⁰ The agency could still issue Marketing Denial Orders (MDOs) for other popular products that Haypp sells, forcing them off the market. Furthermore, the political and social pressure to combat underage use of nicotine products is intense. A notable increase in youth uptake of nicotine pouches could trigger a regulatory backlash, leading to severe marketing restrictions, flavor bans, or other measures that would curtail market growth.²² The complex web of state and local regulations, which can be more stringent than federal rules, adds another layer of compliance risk.

Market and Competitive Risks

Haypp operates in a fiercely competitive market dominated by some of the world’s largest consumer products companies.

• Competition from Big Tobacco: The financial might, manufacturing scale, and distribution networks of PMI, BAT, and Altria represent a constant and formidable competitive threat. These companies could leverage their power to engage in aggressive price competition, which would erode Haypp’s margins. A more strategic threat is the potential for these incumbents to aggressively build out their own D2C channels and prioritize them by restricting the supply of their most popular products (like ZYN) to third-party retailers like Haypp.¹²
• Supply Chain Dependency and Disruption: As a retailer, Haypp is entirely dependent on its suppliers for product. A prolonged manufacturing or supply chain disruption affecting a key brand could significantly impact revenue. The widely reported supply shortages of ZYN in the U.S. during 2024, while temporarily boosting sales of alternative brands on Haypp’s platforms, also highlight the vulnerability of being reliant on a competitor’s production schedule.¹⁸
• Structural Decline of the Snus Category: The accelerated decline of the traditional snus business in Haypp’s profitable Core markets acts as a direct mathematical headwind to the company’s overall growth and profitability. The company must continue to grow its NP business at a rate that significantly outpaces this decline.⁶

Operational Risks

Beyond external market and regulatory factors, the company faces a number of internal operational risks.

• Execution Risk: The company’s strategy hinges on the successful execution of its expansion plans. Entering new product categories (vapes) and new geographic markets carries inherent execution risk. The success of the “Growth Playbook” in one set of markets does not guarantee it can be replicated with the same efficacy in different cultural and competitive contexts.
• Cybersecurity: As a pure-play e-commerce business, Haypp’s operations are fundamentally dependent on its technology infrastructure. A significant cybersecurity breach could result in operational disruption, financial loss, and severe reputational damage. The company acknowledged this risk and reported that it took proactive measures to strengthen its cybersecurity defenses during 2023.⁴¹
• Reputational Risk: The company’s reputation and social license to operate are critical assets. Any credible association with the marketing or sale of nicotine products to underage individuals could trigger a severe public and regulatory backlash, similar to that experienced by the vaping industry. Recognizing this, Haypp frequently emphasizes its commitment to robust age verification and youth access prevention measures.⁴

Valuation Analysis

Comparable Company Analysis

Determining an appropriate valuation for Haypp Group is complex due to its unique position as a high-growth e-commerce retailer operating within the traditionally low-growth, high-yield tobacco sector. A direct, single peer is not readily available, necessitating a comparison against two distinct groups to provide context.

• Peer Group 1: Incumbent Tobacco Companies (PMI, BAT, Altria): These companies represent Haypp’s primary competitors and suppliers. They are characterized by mature, low-growth profiles, substantial cash flow generation, and high dividend yields. Consequently, they trade at low valuation multiples. For instance, Altria trades at a forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 10.8x.³⁴ Comparing Haypp’s much higher multiples to this group is not a like-for-like analysis of business models, but it effectively highlights the significant growth premium that the market has ascribed to Haypp.
• Peer Group 2: Specialty E-commerce Retailers: Comparing Haypp to other specialty e-commerce companies, particularly those listed on the same exchange like Lyko Group (beauty) and Bokusgruppen (books) ⁴³, provides a more relevant benchmark for its business model. These companies, however, operate in entirely different end markets with different growth dynamics and regulatory profiles.

Haypp’s valuation metrics are elevated, reflecting its strong growth profile. Various sources report a trailing twelve-month (TTM) P/E ratio in the range of 60-77x and an Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA ratio of approximately 22-33x.⁴⁴ These multiples are substantially higher than those of Big Tobacco. However, when viewed through the lens of a growth company, the valuation may appear more reasonable. The Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio, which normalizes the P/E ratio for expected earnings growth, is cited in a range of 0.76x to 1.3x.⁴⁵ A PEG ratio around 1.0x is often considered to represent a fair price for a growth company, suggesting that the high P/E multiple is largely supported by the consensus forecast for over 50% forward EPS growth.⁴⁵

Table 3: Valuation Multiples – Peer Comparison

Company	Market Cap	EV/Sales (TTM)	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	Revenue Growth (TTM, %)	EPS Growth (fwd, %)
Haypp Group AB	SEK 4.7B	1.2x	~22-33x	~61-77x	~26x	16.2%	~52%
Philip Morris Int’l	~$160B	~4.5x	~14.0x	~18.0x	~16.5x	~10%	~5%
British American Tobacco	~$70B	~2.5x	~7.0x	~6.5x	~6.0x	~2%	~3%
Altria Group	~$78B	~3.8x	~9.5x	~9.0x	~8.5x	-2%	~4%
Lyko Group AB	SEK 6.5B	~1.5x	~18.0x	~40.0x	~25x	~20%	~30%

Note: Data compiled and estimated from multiple sources ¹⁶ and public financial data providers for illustrative purposes. Multiples are subject to market fluctuations.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Framework

While this analysis will not generate a specific price target, it is instructive to consider the key assumptions that would drive a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation for Haypp. The intrinsic value derived from such a model is highly sensitive to a few critical inputs, which are themselves subject to significant uncertainty.

• Revenue Forecasts: The primary driver of the model would be the revenue forecast. Key assumptions would include the overall growth rate of the NP market, Haypp’s ability to capture share within that market, the rate of online penetration gains in key geographies like the U.S., and the success of the expansion into new categories within the Emerging segment. Achieving management’s SEK 5 billion sales target for 2025 would be a foundational assumption in any bull-case scenario.
• Terminal Margin Assumption: The long-term profitability of the business is another critical variable. The model would need to make an assumption about the sustainable EBIT margin in the terminal year. Whether the company can achieve and then potentially exceed its 5-7% target for the Core and Growth segments will have a substantial impact on the valuation.⁵ Long-term margins will be influenced by competitive intensity, product mix, and the scale of the higher-margin “Media and Insights” business.
• Discount Rate (WACC): The Weighted Average Cost of Capital used to discount future cash flows must adequately reflect Haypp’s risk profile. Given the significant regulatory and competitive risks outlined in this report, the appropriate discount rate would be considerably higher than that of a mature, stable consumer staples company, leading to a lower present value for its future cash flows.

The sensitivity of a DCF model to these inputs is significant. One publicly available DCF analysis calculates a fair value of SEK 83.83 per share, which is substantially below the recent trading price of over SEK 140, indicating that its assumptions on growth, margin, or risk are more conservative than what is currently priced into the stock.⁴⁶

Synthesis of Valuation

The current valuation of Haypp Group AB (publ) encapsulates the central debate surrounding the company. The market is clearly pricing the stock based on its impressive and demonstrated growth trajectory, the vast total addressable market for smoking alternatives, and its advantageous position as a pure-play e-commerce leader. The high valuation multiples reflect a narrative of a disruptive growth company successfully capitalizing on powerful secular trends.

However, these same multiples suggest that the market may be discounting the significant, binary risks that the company faces. The valuation appears to bake in a high probability of a relatively benign long-term regulatory outcome and assumes that the company can successfully defend its position against much larger, vertically integrated competitors. The wide dispersion of analyst price targets, which range from a low of SEK 90 to a high of SEK 220, vividly illustrates the high degree of uncertainty and the starkly different potential outcomes envisioned by market participants.⁴⁷

Ultimately, the investment case for Haypp Group hinges on an investor’s assessment of which force will prove more powerful over the long term: the undeniable secular tailwinds of harm reduction and e-commerce, or the formidable headwinds of regulation and competition. The current valuation reflects a confident bet on the former.

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