Company Overview & Business Model

Corporate Identity and Transformation

ALD SA, operating globally under the brand name Ayvens, is a paramount player in the vehicle leasing and fleet management industry. A subsidiary of the French banking group Société Générale, the company underwent a profound transformation with the successful acquisition of its major competitor, LeasePlan, a transaction that closed on May 22, 2023.¹ This merger was not merely an expansion but a strategic consolidation that created the undisputed global leader in the mobility sector. To signify this new era and unify the two legacy entities, the group was rebranded as Ayvens in October 2023, establishing a single, powerful identity in the marketplace.³

This transformative acquisition has catapulted Ayvens to a position of unparalleled scale, managing a global fleet of approximately 3.4 million vehicles.¹ The company is headquartered in Rueil-Malmaison, France, and its shares are listed on Compartment A of the Euronext Paris stock exchange. In May 2024, its ticker symbol was officially changed from ALD to AYV to align with the new corporate brand.³ The combined entity now employs over 15,700 people worldwide, leveraging a legacy of over 60 years of experience from its constituent parts.³

Core Business Segments

Ayvens’ business is structured around three primary segments that cover the entire lifecycle of a vehicle, from procurement and in-life management to end-of-life remarketing.

Full-Service Leasing (Operational Leasing)

This segment represents the core of Ayvens’ operations. The company offers long-term vehicle leasing contracts, typically with a duration of three to four years, to a broad and diversified client base. This includes large multinational corporations, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), self-employed professionals, and private individuals.² The “full-service” nature of the offering is a key differentiator; it is a comprehensive solution that bundles the financing of the vehicle with a complete suite of management services. This allows clients to outsource all aspects of their vehicle operations, providing them with predictable costs, operational efficiency, and the flexibility to access modern, well-maintained vehicles without the capital outlay and risks associated with ownership.

Fleet Management

For clients who prefer to own their vehicle assets but seek to optimize their operational efficiency, Ayvens provides standalone fleet management services. This offering unbundles the financing component and focuses purely on the service aspect of fleet operations. The suite of services is extensive and includes vehicle maintenance and repair scheduling, tire management, fuel card programs, comprehensive insurance solutions, and accident management.² By leveraging its vast network of service providers and its sophisticated data analytics capabilities, Ayvens helps these clients reduce their Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and administrative burden.

Used Car Sales (UCS) / Remarketing

A critical and value-defining part of the business model is the management and sale of vehicles at the end of their lease contracts. Ayvens operates a sophisticated, multi-channel remarketing strategy to maximize the proceeds from these used car sales. The primary channel is ALD Carmarket, a proprietary global online auction platform that sells hundreds of thousands of vehicles annually.² This digital platform is complemented by a physical network of 51 showrooms across 20 countries, catering to different buyer segments.³ The efficiency and effectiveness of this segment are paramount, as the ability to achieve favorable sales prices relative to the vehicles’ depreciated book value is a major determinant of the company’s overall profitability.

Revenue Streams and Profitability Model

The company’s financial success is derived from what has been described as a “calculated dance of asset management and service provision,” built upon three distinct and diversified income streams that generate value at different stages of the vehicle lifecycle.²

1. Leasing Contract Margin: This is the fundamental financing profit. It represents the spread between the total leasing revenue received from a customer over the contract term and the costs associated with that contract. The revenue component is designed to cover the vehicle’s expected depreciation (the difference between its initial purchase price and its estimated future residual value) plus an interest charge for funding the asset. The cost component includes the actual depreciation expense and the company’s cost of funds. This margin provides a stable, recurring, and predictable source of income over the life of the lease portfolio.²
2. Services Margin: This stream captures the profitability of the value-added services bundled into the full-service lease or sold separately under fleet management contracts. It is calculated as the difference between the fixed monthly service fees invoiced to the client and the actual costs Ayvens incurs in procuring these services (e.g., payments to garages for maintenance, insurance premiums). Scale is a significant advantage here, as Ayvens can negotiate preferential rates with its vast network of suppliers, creating a profitable margin while offering competitive service pricing to its clients.²
3. Used Car Sales (UCS) Result: This is the most variable but often a highly significant contributor to the company’s gross operating income. The UCS result is the profit or loss realized upon the sale of a vehicle at the end of its lease. It is the difference between the net cash proceeds from the sale and the vehicle’s carrying amount (or residual value) on the balance sheet.² This income stream is highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, supply and demand dynamics in the used car market, and shifts in consumer preferences. While it introduces volatility, a well-managed remarketing strategy can generate substantial profits during periods of high used car prices.

The interplay of these three revenue streams creates a resilient yet complex business model. The stability of the leasing and services margins provides a solid foundation of recurring revenue, which helps to cushion the company against the inherent volatility of the used car market. However, the performance of the UCS result can have a disproportionate impact on year-over-year profitability, making a deep understanding of used car market dynamics essential for analyzing the company’s financial performance. The rebranding to Ayvens and the ongoing integration of LeasePlan are central to optimizing all three of these streams by leveraging increased scale, enhancing purchasing power, and creating a more efficient global operating platform, with the ultimate goal of realizing the stated €440 million in annual synergies.¹ The success of this integration is therefore not just an operational goal but a financial imperative that underpins the company’s future profitability.

Geographic Footprint and Key Subsidiaries

Ayvens possesses the most extensive geographic footprint in the industry, a key competitive advantage when servicing large multinational clients who require a consistent global mobility solution. The company has a direct presence in 44 countries and further extends its reach to a total of 59 countries through a network of strategic commercial alliances.²

The acquisition of LeasePlan was strategically important in this regard, as it created a more balanced and robust presence across the mature and highly competitive European markets.² Beyond Europe, Ayvens maintains a strong global network through long-standing partnerships. The most significant of these is the alliance with

Wheels in North America, a leader in fleet management for large corporate customers, which allows Ayvens to offer seamless service across the Atlantic.² This is complemented by alliances with Fleet Partners in the Asia-Pacific region and other partners in key markets, ensuring a comprehensive global service capability.²

As part of the post-merger integration and to streamline its operations as a regulated entity, Ayvens has established key group-level subsidiaries, including Ayvens Bank and Ayvens Insurance. These entities are designed to centralize and optimize the company’s banking and insurance activities, respectively, across its various markets, enhancing efficiency and regulatory compliance.¹³

Industry Analysis & Market Dynamics

European Vehicle Leasing and Fleet Management Industry Overview

The European vehicle leasing and fleet management industry is a large, mature, and structurally growing market. It serves as a critical facilitator for corporate mobility and is increasingly catering to the needs of SMEs and private individuals. The sector is undergoing a period of profound transformation, driven by powerful secular trends that are reshaping how vehicles are used, powered, and managed.

Market Size, Growth Rates, and Future Projections

The European car leasing market was valued at approximately USD 28 billion in 2023.¹⁴ Forecasts for its future growth are consistently positive, though estimates vary. Research from Technavio projects the market will expand by USD 10.1 billion between 2025 and 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of

3.7%.¹⁵ A more optimistic forecast from GM Insights projects a more rapid expansion, with a CAGR of

6.1% for the period between 2024 and 2032.¹⁴

Broader industry data from Leaseurope, which includes both vehicle and equipment leasing, underscores the market’s dynamism. In 2023, total new leasing volumes in Europe reached €447.9 billion, marking a significant 10.8% increase compared to the previous year. The automotive segment was the primary engine of this growth, with new leasing volumes for passenger cars expanding by 14.5% and commercial vehicles by 14.4%.¹⁹ This robust growth highlights the sector’s resilience and the accelerating adoption of leasing models.

Key Industry Trends Affecting the Sector

The industry’s trajectory is being shaped by several powerful and interconnected “megatrends” that are fundamentally altering the mobility landscape.

1. Structural Shift from Ownership to Usership: This is the most fundamental tailwind for the industry. Both corporate and retail customers are increasingly prioritizing access over ownership. For businesses, leasing offers significant financial and operational advantages: it converts a large capital expenditure into a predictable operating expense, preserves capital for core business investments, and transfers complex risks—such as maintenance costs and residual value uncertainty—to the leasing provider.¹ This trend is expected to accelerate, with the European usership market projected to more than double from 4.9 million vehicles in 2021 to 9.5 million by 2030, representing a CAGR of 7.7%.¹
2. Fleet Electrification: The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is the single most powerful catalyst transforming the industry. With approximately 70% of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Europe expected to be electric by 2030, the entire automotive ecosystem is being rewired.¹ Vehicle leasing is a critical enabler of this transition. It provides a crucial “de-risking” mechanism for customers who are hesitant to purchase EVs outright due to concerns about high upfront costs, rapid technological advancements, battery degradation, and highly uncertain future resale values. By assuming these risks, leasing companies make EV adoption more accessible and financially viable for a broader range of users.¹⁴
3. Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) and Digitalization: The industry is evolving from simply providing vehicles to offering integrated, technology-driven mobility solutions. The rise of MaaS involves the creation of digital platforms that give users access to a range of multi-modal transport options, from leased cars and car-sharing to public transport, all managed through a single interface.²² This shift is powered by digitalization and the adoption of advanced technologies. Telematics, the Internet of Things (IoT), and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are becoming standard tools for optimizing fleet operations. They enable real-time vehicle tracking, predictive maintenance, route optimization, and data-driven analysis of driver behavior to reduce costs and improve safety. The European fleet management market, which encompasses these technologies, is projected to grow at a robust CAGR of 11.9%.²²
4. Corporate Fleet Optimization and Sustainability: In an environment of rising costs and increasing environmental scrutiny, corporations are intensely focused on optimizing their vehicle fleets. This involves minimizing the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and reducing their carbon footprint. Advanced fleet management solutions that use data analytics to monitor and reduce fuel consumption, streamline maintenance schedules, and promote safer, more efficient driving habits are in high demand.²² The use of GPS tracking solutions, for example, has been shown to decrease fuel costs by an average of 24% and accident-related costs by 19%.²⁵

These trends are not independent but rather create a powerful, self-reinforcing cycle. The complexity and higher cost of EVs push more customers from ownership towards leasing. The growth in leased, connected vehicles generates a massive trove of data. This data, in turn, fuels the development of more sophisticated digital fleet management and MaaS offerings, which provide greater value to customers and create durable competitive advantages for the large-scale players who can effectively harness it.

Regulatory Environment and Upcoming Changes

The regulatory landscape in Europe acts as a powerful, non-cyclical catalyst for the leasing industry, particularly in accelerating the shift towards sustainable mobility.

• Emissions Standards: The European Union has implemented some of the world’s most stringent vehicle emissions standards. The cornerstone of this policy is the regulation mandating a ban on the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and vans from 2035.²⁵ This creates a clear and unchangeable deadline for the complete transition of vehicle fleets to zero-emission technologies. This government-mandated replacement cycle provides a strong, long-term demand floor for the leasing industry, which is positioned as the primary facilitator for this capital-intensive transition.
• Taxation Policies and Incentives: National governments across Europe are actively using fiscal policy to steer the market towards electrification. This includes providing tax incentives, subsidies, and grants for the purchase or lease of electric and hybrid vehicles, while in some cases penalizing higher-emission vehicles.¹⁴ These policies directly influence the TCO calculation for fleet managers and make leasing an EV a more financially attractive proposition.
• Data and Safety Regulations: The increasing connectivity of vehicles brings new regulatory challenges. Compliance with data privacy laws, such as the GDPR, is critical for companies that handle vast amounts of driver and vehicle data. Additionally, new regulations concerning commercial vehicle operation, such as updated tachograph laws and mandates for tire pressure monitoring systems, create a complex compliance environment that further encourages businesses to outsource their fleet management to specialized experts.²²

Competitive Landscape

Market Share Analysis and ALD’s Position

The European vehicle leasing market is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, where a handful of large, well-capitalized players dominate. Following its transformative acquisition of LeasePlan, Ayvens has unequivocally established itself as the largest and most dominant force in this landscape.² The combined entity manages a global fleet of approximately 3.4 million vehicles, a scale that significantly surpasses its nearest competitors.¹

The top seven leasing companies in Europe—a group that includes Ayvens, Volkswagen Financial Services, Arval, Leasys, Alphabet, Athlon, and Mobilize Financial Services—collectively manage a fleet of 9.3 million cars. Their influence is profound, as they account for nearly one out of every three new car sales across the European Union.²⁸ Within this elite group, Ayvens’ scale gives it a commanding position. For instance, in a key market like the United Kingdom, the merged entity was projected to become the largest single supplier, with an estimated market share in the range of 10-20% across all lease and customer types.²⁹

Key Competitors and Competitive Advantages/Disadvantages

Ayvens faces competition from other large-scale players, most of whom are also backed by major banking or automotive groups, creating a two-tiered market where independent lessors face significant structural disadvantages.

• Arval: A wholly-owned subsidiary of the French banking giant BNP Paribas, Arval is Ayvens’ most direct and formidable competitor. With a leased fleet of approximately 1.6 million vehicles, Arval boasts a strong presence and holds number one market positions in key European countries such as France, Italy, and Spain.³⁰ Its primary competitive advantage is similar to Ayvens’: the deep financial backing and extensive distribution network of its parent bank, which provides access to stable, low-cost funding and a vast client base.
• Volkswagen Financial Services: As the captive finance and leasing arm of the Volkswagen Group, this entity is a powerhouse in the European market.¹⁴ Its key advantage is its intrinsic link to Europe’s largest automotive manufacturer, providing unparalleled access to a wide range of vehicles and deep integration with the OEM’s sales and service network.
• Alphabet: The business mobility and fleet management division of the BMW Group, Alphabet manages a fleet of over 720,000 vehicles.³² It leverages the premium brand association of its parent company and focuses on providing innovative, high-end mobility solutions, with a strong emphasis on consulting and supporting customers in their transition to electric vehicles.³²
• Other Competitors: The competitive field also includes other OEM-backed lessors such as Leasys (a joint venture between Stellantis and Crédit Agricole), Athlon (owned by Mercedes-Benz), and Mobilize Financial Services (part of the Renault Group).²⁸

Barriers to Entry and Competitive Moats

The barriers to entry in the full-service leasing industry are exceptionally high, creating durable competitive moats for established players like Ayvens.

1. Scale and Purchasing Power: This is the most significant moat. With a fleet of over 3 million vehicles, Ayvens possesses immense purchasing power. This allows it to negotiate substantial discounts from automotive manufacturers (OEMs) on new vehicle purchases and preferential rates from suppliers for maintenance, tires, and other services. This scale-driven cost advantage is nearly impossible for new or smaller entrants to replicate.²
2. Access to Competitive Funding: Vehicle leasing is an extremely capital-intensive business. A leasing company’s cost of funds is a primary determinant of its pricing and profitability. Ayvens’ relationship with Société Générale provides it with access to a large, stable, and cost-effective pool of capital. This backing from a major financial institution is a critical advantage that lowers its overall cost base and enhances its resilience during periods of financial market stress.²
3. Global Network and Service Infrastructure: Building a direct presence in over 40 countries and establishing a reliable network of thousands of service partners (garages, body shops, etc.) is a monumental undertaking that has taken decades to build. This global infrastructure is essential for servicing large multinational corporations, which require consistent service quality and centralized reporting across all their areas of operation.²
4. Data and Risk Management Expertise: Decades of operating millions of vehicles have provided Ayvens with a vast and invaluable dataset. This data is a powerful tool for managing the industry’s most critical risk: residual value risk. By analyzing historical data on vehicle performance, maintenance costs, and resale prices, the company can more accurately predict the future value of vehicles, allowing it to price its leases more competitively and minimize losses on used car sales. This data-driven expertise in risk management is a sophisticated and self-reinforcing competitive advantage.²²
5. Remarketing Capabilities: An efficient and effective remarketing operation is vital for maximizing the value of off-lease vehicles. Ayvens’ proprietary platforms, like ALD Carmarket, give it direct control over the sales process, allowing it to optimize sales channels, reach a wide range of buyers, and capture the full value of its assets, rather than relying on third-party auction houses.²

The competitive landscape is thus defined by these high barriers. The consolidation exemplified by the ALD-LeasePlan merger underscores the reality that scale is no longer just an advantage but a necessity for effective competition. This forces rivals into a strategic dilemma: either pursue their own consolidation to achieve comparable scale or specialize in niche markets where the global giants are less focused. The backing of a major financial institution or automotive OEM has become a de facto requirement for competing at the highest level, creating a clear divide between a handful of dominant, well-supported players and a fragmented tier of smaller, independent companies.

Financial Performance & Analysis

5-Year Historical Financial Performance

An examination of Ayvens’ financial performance over the past five years reveals a period of significant growth, transformative change, and notable volatility driven by both strategic actions and external market conditions. The data clearly shows the impact of the exceptionally strong used car market in 2021-2022 and the scale-altering consolidation of LeasePlan in 2023.

• Revenue: The company’s top line has demonstrated a strong upward trajectory. Total revenue increased from €9.86 billion in 2020 to €11.37 billion in 2021. The growth accelerated dramatically in subsequent years, reaching €18.74 billion in 2022 and surging to €25.35 billion in 2023, with the latter figure reflecting the inclusion of LeasePlan’s operations post-acquisition.³⁸
• Net Income (Group Share): Profitability has been robust but has also shown significant fluctuation, largely influenced by the highly cyclical Used Car Sales (UCS) result. Net income stood at €510 million in 2020. It rose sharply to €873 million in 2021 and peaked at an extraordinary €1.22 billion in 2022, a year characterized by record-high used car prices due to new vehicle supply shortages.³⁸ In 2023, net income normalized to €816 million. This decline from the 2022 peak was not due to operational weakness but rather the anticipated cooling of the used car market, combined with one-off costs related to the LeasePlan integration.³⁸
• EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization followed a similar pattern of growth. EBITDA rose from €4.67 billion in 2020 to €5.03 billion in 2021 and €5.55 billion in 2022. The reported figure for 2023 shows a substantial jump to €7.62 billion, a figure that is not directly comparable to prior years due to the full consolidation of LeasePlan and potential changes in accounting presentation.³⁸

The financial results of 2022, in particular, should be viewed as a cyclical zenith driven by an anomalous market environment for used vehicles. The subsequent normalization of profitability in 2023, while appearing as a decline, is more representative of a return to more sustainable long-term performance levels, albeit obscured by the significant one-time effects of the merger. A key task for analysis is to look through this short-term noise to assess the underlying, “run-rate” earnings power of the newly combined Ayvens entity.

Key Financial Metrics Specific to Leasing Companies

Beyond standard financial metrics, a set of industry-specific KPIs is essential for understanding the operational health and performance of Ayvens.

• Total Fleet (Total Contracts): This metric represents the overall scale of the company’s operations. Pre-merger, ALD’s total managed fleet grew from 1.76 million contracts at the end of 2020 to 1.81 million by the end of 2022.² The acquisition of LeasePlan created a step-change in scale, bringing the total managed fleet to
  3.42 million vehicles as of year-end 2023.³⁹
• Funded Fleet: This represents the portion of the total fleet that is owned by Ayvens and financed on its balance sheet, forming the core of its earning assets. The funded fleet grew from 1.37 million vehicles at the end of 2020 to 1.43 million at the end of 2021.⁴¹ Post-merger, the funded fleet (referred to as full-service leasing contracts) stood at
  2.71 million vehicles at year-end 2023.³⁹
• Used Car Sales (UCS) Result per Unit: This is a critical indicator of profitability and risk management. It starkly illustrates the market’s volatility, soaring to an unprecedented average of €3,269 per vehicle in 2022 before normalizing to €2,400 in 2023.³⁹ The company’s guidance for 2024 anticipates a further normalization to a range of €1,100 to €1,600 per unit, which is more in line with historical norms.³⁹
• Cost of Risk: This metric, which measures impairment charges on receivables as a percentage of earning assets, reflects the quality of the company’s loan book. Ayvens has consistently maintained a low and well-managed cost of risk, reported at 16 basis points (bps) in the first half of 2021 and 25 bps in the first quarter of 2024, demonstrating disciplined underwriting standards.⁴⁰

Balance Sheet Strength and Debt Structure

The acquisition of LeasePlan fundamentally reshaped Ayvens’ balance sheet, dramatically increasing its size and complexity. Total assets expanded from €31.30 billion at the end of 2022 to €70.26 billion at the end of 2023.³⁸ The company’s capital-intensive business model necessitates a highly leveraged balance sheet, financed primarily through a diversified mix of debt instruments. Key funding sources include loans from its parent, Société Générale, as well as bonds and notes issued in the public debt capital markets.³⁸

A critical aspect of the company’s financial management is its status as a Financial Holding Company, subject to supervision by the European Central Bank (ECB). This regulatory oversight requires Ayvens to adhere to stringent capital adequacy standards, similar to those for traditional banks. The company’s key regulatory capital metric is its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, which stood at a robust 12.5% at the end of 2023. This is comfortably in line with its strategic target of approximately 12%, indicating a solid capital buffer against potential losses.¹ This regulatory framework provides an important layer of financial discipline and stability, which is a key consideration for investors.

Return on Equity and Return on Assets Trends

• Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE): This is the primary measure of profitability for shareholders. Reflecting the peak in UCS results, ROTE reached an exceptionally high 26.4% in 2022. It subsequently normalized to a strong 12.4% in 2023.³⁹ The company’s “PowerUP 2026” strategic plan targets a sustainable ROTE in the range of
  13% to 15%, a level considered to be at the high end of the financial sector.¹
• Cost/Income Ratio (excluding UCS result): This ratio measures operational efficiency. It stood at 53.2% in 2022 but rose to 63.7% in 2023, an increase directly attributable to the costs incurred to achieve the integration of LeasePlan.³⁹ A core objective of the strategic plan is to leverage synergies to drive this ratio down significantly, with a target of approximately
  52% by 2026.¹

The following table provides a consolidated summary of Ayvens’ key financial and operational metrics over the past five years.

Table 1: 5-Year Financial & Operational Summary

Metric	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Income Statement (€M)
Total Revenue	9,860	11,370	18,740	25,350	25,270
Gross Operating Income	1,318	1,821	2,800 (est.)	2,802 (est.)	2,980
Net Income (Group Share)	510	873	1,220	816	684
Operational Metrics
Total Fleet (millions)	1.76	1.73	1.81	3.42	3.30
Funded Fleet (millions)	1.37	1.43	N/A	2.71	2.63
UCS Result per Unit (€)	N/A	740	3,269	2,400	1,267
Balance Sheet & Ratios
Total Assets (€B)	25.07	26.99	31.30	70.26	150.23
CET1 Ratio (%)	N/A	N/A	N/A	12.5%	N/A
ROTE (%)	12.5%	19.5%	26.4%	12.4%	N/A
Cost/Income (excl. UCS) (%)	51.5%	49.1%	53.2%	63.7%	60.2%

Note: Data compiled from various sources.¹³ Some figures are estimates based on available data. The 2023 and 2024 figures reflect the post-merger entity and are not directly comparable to prior years. 2024 data is based on full-year results where available.

Growth Strategy & Opportunities

“PowerUP 2026” Strategic Plan

Following the landmark acquisition of LeasePlan, Ayvens unveiled its comprehensive three-year strategic plan, “PowerUP 2026,” in September 2023.¹ This plan supersedes the previous “Move 2025” strategy and is designed to leverage the company’s newfound leadership position to shape the future of mobility and deliver superior shareholder returns. The strategy is articulated around four core priorities: Clients, Operational Efficiency, Responsibility, and Profitability.¹

The plan sets forth a clear and ambitious set of financial targets to be achieved by 2026:

• Asset Growth: Achieve a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for Earning Assets of +6% between 2023 and 2026. This growth is expected to be driven by both an increase in fleet size and a higher average value per vehicle, underpinned by the accelerating shift to more expensive electric vehicles.¹
• Profitability: Deliver a Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) in the range of 13% to 15%, a level that would place Ayvens at the high end of the financial services sector.¹
• Efficiency: Substantially improve operational efficiency by reducing the Cost/Income ratio (excluding the volatile Used Car Sales result) to approximately 52%.¹
• Capital Strength: Maintain a robust capital position with a target Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of approximately 12%.¹

Synergy Realization from LeasePlan Acquisition

The successful integration of LeasePlan is the cornerstone of the “PowerUP 2026” plan and the primary driver for achieving its efficiency and profitability targets. The company has confirmed a target of €440 million in annual run-rate pre-tax synergies to be fully realized by 2026.¹

These synergies are anticipated to be sourced evenly from two main areas:

1. Margin and Procurement Synergies: Leveraging the combined entity’s massive scale to negotiate better prices on new vehicle purchases from OEMs and more favorable terms with suppliers for services like tires, maintenance, and insurance.
2. Cost Synergies: Streamlining operations by consolidating IT platforms, optimizing real estate footprints, and eliminating redundant corporate functions.

The realization of these synergies is planned as a progressive ramp-up: €120 million by 2024, €350 million by 2025, and the full €440 million run-rate by 2026. To achieve this, the company has budgeted for total integration costs (Costs to Achieve) of €525 million, spread over the 2022-2025 period.¹ The successful execution of this synergy plan is the single most critical factor for the investment case over the medium term.

Fleet Electrification Strategy

Ayvens aims to be a definitive leader in the global transition to sustainable mobility. The company currently manages the world’s largest multi-brand EV fleet and has placed electrification at the heart of its growth strategy.³

The company has set an ambitious target for EVs to represent 50% of its new passenger car registrations by 2026, with 40% being Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and 10% being Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). This represents a significant acceleration from the 28% EV share recorded in 2022.⁴⁶

The strategy to achieve this is multi-faceted. It involves not just supplying EVs but providing a comprehensive, end-to-end ecosystem to facilitate the transition for its clients. This includes offering expert consultancy on fleet electrification, providing turnkey charging solutions for both home and workplace, and developing sophisticated reporting tools. The company aims to quadruple the uptake of its “full bundled electric product” to 400,000 contracts by 2026. Strategic partnerships, such as the joint venture with charging provider ChargePoint, are crucial for building out this ecosystem and simplifying the EV experience for drivers.⁶

Digital Transformation and New Service Offerings

Ayvens is making significant investments in technology to build the industry’s most efficient and scalable global operating platform. The goal is to leverage technology to drive down costs—with a target to reduce IT cost per vehicle by approximately 20%—and to enhance the customer experience.¹

A key growth avenue is the expansion into Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS). Ayvens is moving beyond the traditional leasing model to offer integrated mobility platforms that provide corporate employees with flexible, multi-modal travel options. The company has set a target of reaching 200,000 active users on its MaaS platform by 2026, signaling a clear ambition to capture a larger share of the corporate mobility budget.¹

Furthermore, the company is expanding its offerings in multi-cycle and used car leasing. By leasing vehicles for a second or even third life cycle, Ayvens can generate additional revenue streams from a single asset. The strategy aims to sell or lease approximately 30% of its off-lease vehicles directly to retail customers, a channel that typically offers higher margins and helps to reduce exposure to wholesale used car market volatility.⁴⁸

The following table summarizes the key targets of the “PowerUP 2026” strategic plan, providing a scorecard against which to measure the company’s execution over the coming years.

Table 2: “PowerUP 2026” Strategic Targets Scorecard

Metric	2023 Actual	2026 Target
Earning Assets CAGR (2023-2026)	N/A	+6%
Annual Run-Rate Synergies (€M)	N/A	€440
Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) (%)	12.4%	13% – 15%
Cost/Income Ratio (excl. UCS) (%)	63.7%	c. 52%
CET1 Ratio (%)	12.5%	c. 12%
EV % of New Registrations (Passenger Cars)	36% (FY23)	50%
MaaS Active Users	N/A	200,000

Source: Company presentations and financial reports.¹

Capital Allocation & Financial Management

Dividend Policy and Shareholder Return History

Ayvens has established a clear and consistent capital return policy focused on providing shareholders with a predictable dividend stream. The company has publicly stated a target dividend payout ratio of 50% of its consolidated net income throughout the “PowerUP 2026” strategic plan period (2023-2026).¹

This policy has been put into practice with recent dividend declarations. For the fiscal year 2023, the company proposed a dividend of €0.47 per share, which corresponded to a 50% payout of the reported net income.³⁹ Similarly, for fiscal year 2024, a dividend of €0.37 per share was proposed, again adhering to the 50% payout ratio.¹³

The historical dividend per share has shown variability, which is a direct reflection of the fluctuations in the company’s annual net income, particularly the impact of the volatile used car sales results. For example, the dividend paid in 2023 (for the record profit year of 2022) was €1.06 per share, compared to €0.99 paid in 2022 (for fiscal year 2021).⁵⁰ The commitment to a fixed payout

ratio rather than a fixed dividend per share allows the company to return a consistent portion of its profits to shareholders while retaining the flexibility to adjust the absolute payout based on annual performance. The sustainability of this dividend is therefore directly linked to the company’s ability to achieve its target ROTE of 13-15%.

Share Buyback Programs

In addition to dividends, Ayvens has a share buyback program authorized by its shareholders. The General Meeting held in May 2023 granted the Board of Directors the authority to repurchase the company’s own shares for an amount up to 5% of the total share capital, with a maximum financial allocation of €1.2 billion for the program.⁵¹

The stated purposes of the share buyback program are primarily strategic and operational rather than being a direct tool for capital reduction. The main objectives are:

• To allocate shares to employees and corporate officers as part of free share or employee savings plans, aligning management and employee interests with those of shareholders.
• To retain shares for potential use in future external growth transactions, such as funding smaller, bolt-on acquisitions with equity.⁵¹

Fleet Financing Strategies and Funding Sources

As a company with a massive balance sheet dominated by vehicle assets, Ayvens’ financial management and funding strategy are critical to its success. The company employs a sophisticated and diversified funding model to finance its fleet in a cost-effective and resilient manner.

1. Support from Société Générale: The cornerstone of Ayvens’ funding strategy is its relationship with its majority shareholder. Société Générale provides a substantial portion of the company’s loan-based funding, offering a stable and competitively priced source of capital. In the first half of 2021 (pre-merger), loans from Société Générale constituted approximately 69% of ALD’s total funding.²
2. Debt Capital Markets: Ayvens is an established and active issuer in the global debt capital markets. The company regularly issues bonds and notes of varying maturities to a wide range of institutional investors, further diversifying its funding sources and reducing its reliance on any single channel.²
3. Deposit Collection: The acquisition of LeasePlan brought with it a valuable new funding channel. LeasePlan had established successful online deposit-taking platforms in certain European markets, notably Germany and the Netherlands. These platforms attract retail deposits, providing a stable and granular source of funding for the combined entity.²
4. Securitization: The company also has the capability to use securitization, where it packages lease receivables into securities that are sold to investors, as an additional funding tool.

A core principle of the company’s treasury management is to prudently manage financial risks. This involves a policy of closely matching the characteristics of its assets (leases) and liabilities (funding) in terms of maturities and interest rate structures, primarily using fixed-rate funding to finance its predominantly fixed-rate lease contracts. This approach is designed to minimize its exposure to fluctuations in interest rates and liquidity risk.⁵²

Working Relationship with Parent Company Société Générale

The relationship between Ayvens and Société Générale extends far beyond that of a typical majority shareholder. Société Générale is a deeply integrated strategic partner, and this relationship forms the bedrock of Ayvens’ competitive advantage and financial stability.

Société Générale holds a controlling stake of approximately 52.6% in Ayvens and has publicly committed to remaining the long-term majority shareholder, underscored by a 40-month lock-up agreement following the LeasePlan acquisition.³ This long-term commitment signals that Ayvens is not just a financial investment but a core strategic asset for the banking group. Indeed, Société Générale has stated that it views Ayvens as a

third strategic pillar of its business, alongside its retail banking and corporate and investment banking divisions.³⁷

This strategic importance manifests in several tangible benefits for Ayvens:

• Financial Backing: As detailed above, SocGen provides critical funding and liquidity support, which lowers Ayvens’ cost of capital and enhances its financial resilience.
• Risk Management Oversight: Ayvens benefits from leveraging Société Générale’s sophisticated, bank-level risk management frameworks and resources, ensuring robust governance and control.¹
• Distribution and Client Access: The relationship provides potential for synergies through access to Société Générale’s vast network of corporate and retail banking clients, creating opportunities for cross-selling and lead generation.

This deep, strategic integration with a major European banking group provides Ayvens with a level of stability and financial firepower that its independent competitors cannot replicate. It is a crucial safety net that allows the company to navigate market cycles and undertake complex strategic initiatives, such as the LeasePlan integration, from a position of strength.

Risk Assessment

A thorough analysis of Ayvens requires a clear understanding of the inherent and emerging risks associated with its business model and strategic direction. These risks can be categorized into several key areas.

Key Business Risks

1. Residual Value (RV) Risk: This is the most significant and inherent risk in the operational leasing business. RV risk is the potential for financial loss that arises if the actual market value of a vehicle at the end of its lease contract is lower than the residual value that was forecast at the contract’s inception.⁵³ This gap results in a loss upon the sale of the used vehicle. The company’s profitability is highly sensitive to the accuracy of its RV setting and the overall health of the used car market. This risk is currently amplified by the industry’s transition to
   Electric Vehicles (EVs). The long-term residual values of EVs are subject to a high degree of uncertainty due to several factors:

• Rapid Technological Change: Advances in battery technology, charging speeds, and vehicle range could make older EV models obsolete more quickly than their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts.
• Battery Degradation: Uncertainty about the long-term performance and lifespan of EV batteries is a major concern for used car buyers and a key variable in determining resale value.
• OEM Pricing Strategies: Aggressive price cuts on new EVs by manufacturers, as have been seen in the market, can have an immediate and severe negative impact on the value of existing used EVs.⁵⁸
  
  Recent sharp corrections in used EV prices across Europe have highlighted the materiality of this risk.56

2. Credit Risk: This is the risk of financial loss resulting from the failure of a customer to meet their contractual lease payment obligations.⁵⁷ This risk is inherently cyclical, as the frequency of defaults tends to increase during economic downturns when businesses and individuals face financial distress. Ayvens mitigates this risk through a disciplined credit underwriting process for all new customers and by maintaining a highly diversified portfolio spread across thousands of clients, various industries, and multiple geographic regions.⁶⁰
3. Interest Rate Sensitivity: As a financial intermediary that funds its assets primarily with debt, Ayvens is exposed to movements in interest rates. A significant rise in prevailing interest rates would increase the company’s cost of funding. The company’s primary mitigation strategy is to match its assets and liabilities. Since most of its lease contracts are at fixed rates, Ayvens aims to finance them with fixed-rate debt of a similar duration.⁵² However, perfect matching is not always possible, and the company uses interest rate derivatives (swaps) to hedge its residual exposure. While this hedging reduces the economic risk, significant volatility in interest rates can lead to large, non-cash mark-to-market gains or losses on these derivative positions, which can impact reported quarterly earnings.³⁹
4. Integration and Operational Risk: The ongoing integration of LeasePlan is the most significant near-term operational risk. This is a massive and highly complex undertaking that involves merging two large, global organizations with distinct IT systems, operational processes, and corporate cultures. Potential risks include:

• Execution Delays: Challenges in migrating data and consolidating IT platforms could lead to delays and cost overruns.
• Business Disruption: Any disruption to customer service during the integration process could damage client relationships and lead to customer attrition.
• Failure to Realize Synergies: The inability to achieve the targeted €440 million in cost and procurement synergies would fundamentally undermine the financial rationale of the merger and negatively impact future profitability.⁶²

Regulatory and Compliance Risks

Having become a regulated Financial Holding Company under the supervision of the ECB, Ayvens is subject to a heightened level of regulatory scrutiny. This introduces risks related to changes in banking regulations, particularly those concerning capital adequacy (Basel III/IV), liquidity requirements, and risk management practices. Furthermore, the company is exposed to evolving environmental regulations, which could impose additional costs or alter the market dynamics for certain types of vehicles, and to changes in consumer protection laws that could affect leasing contract terms and conditions.¹

Technology Disruption Risks

Looking to the longer term, the automotive and mobility sectors face potential disruption from emerging technologies. The widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles could fundamentally change the concept of car usage, potentially shifting demand from individual leased vehicles towards robotaxi services. Similarly, the continued growth of shared mobility platforms could reduce the need for dedicated corporate fleets, particularly in urban areas.²⁷ While Ayvens is actively investing in MaaS to position itself for this future, the ultimate impact of these disruptive technologies on its core business model remains a long-term uncertainty.

The following matrix summarizes the key risks, their potential impact, and the primary strategies Ayvens employs for mitigation.

Table 3: Key Risk Factor Matrix

Risk Factor	Description	Potential Impact	Key Mitigation Strategies
Residual Value Risk	Loss from vehicle sales prices falling below forecasted book value, especially for EVs.	High	Diversified portfolio, data-driven RV setting, multi-cycle leasing, direct-to-consumer remarketing channels.
Credit Risk	Customer defaults on lease payments, particularly during economic downturns.	Medium	Rigorous credit analysis for all clients, high diversification across geographies and industries, active portfolio monitoring.
Interest Rate Risk	Rising funding costs negatively impacting net interest margins.	Medium	Asset-liability matching (duration and rate type), use of interest rate derivatives for hedging.
Integration & Operational Risk	Failure to successfully integrate LeasePlan, leading to missed synergies and business disruption.	High	Dedicated integration management office, phased rollout of new platform, strong governance and oversight.
Technology Disruption Risk	Long-term shift to autonomous vehicles and shared mobility reducing demand for traditional leasing.	Low (Near-term)	Investment in MaaS platform (ALD Move), flexible leasing products, strategic partnerships with tech companies.

Valuation Analysis

Current Trading Multiples vs. Historical Ranges

An analysis of Ayvens’ valuation multiples indicates that the company is currently trading at a significant discount to its historical averages, reflecting market sentiment that is heavily influenced by the perceived risks of the LeasePlan integration and the uncertainty surrounding the automotive sector’s EV transition.

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: As of mid-2025, Ayvens’ trailing twelve-month (TTM) P/E ratio is reported in the range of 12.3x to 12.9x.⁶⁵ This is a notable contrast to its historical valuation. For example, at the end of 2022, a year of peak earnings, the P/E ratio was as low as 4.0x, while at the end of 2020, it stood at 9.2x.⁶⁷ The current multiple, while higher than the 2022 trough, remains below historical peaks, suggesting a degree of investor caution.
• Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: This metric is particularly revealing. Recent data indicates a P/B ratio of approximately 0.7x.⁶⁸ This means the company’s stock is trading at a 30% discount to its accounting tangible book value. Trading below a P/B of 1.0x is often an indicator that the market has concerns about a company’s future profitability or the stated value of its assets.
• Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) Ratio: This multiple, which accounts for both debt and equity, also points to a conservative valuation. As of late 2024, the company’s trailing EV/EBITDA multiple was reported at 3.80x, a significant compression from 6.07x in the prior year period.⁶⁹

Peer Comparison Valuation Metrics

When compared to its peers and the broader industry, Ayvens’ valuation appears compelling on a relative basis.

• One analysis notes that Ayvens’ P/E ratio of approximately 12.9x represents good value when compared to a calculated peer average of 32.9x and the European Transportation industry average of 15.2x.⁶⁶
• General valuation ranges for the automotive sales, leasing, and rental sector are cited as being between 4x and 8x EV/EBITDA.⁷⁰ At its current multiple of approximately 3.8x, Ayvens is trading at the very low end of, or even below, this typical industry range.

This relative undervaluation suggests that the market is applying a larger discount to Ayvens than to its competitors, likely due to the specific and significant execution risks associated with the massive LeasePlan integration.

Book Value and Dividend Yield Analysis

The fact that Ayvens is trading at a substantial discount to its tangible book value is a central feature of its current valuation profile. This implies that the market is pricing in the possibility of future asset write-downs—most likely from losses on the residual value of its vehicle fleet, particularly EVs—or that it believes the company will be unable to generate a return on its equity that would justify a valuation at or above its book value.

The company’s dividend provides a tangible return to investors. Based on the proposed dividend for the 2024 fiscal year, the forward dividend yield is approximately 3.8% to 3.9%.⁴ The sustainability of this yield is underpinned by the company’s stated 50% payout policy and its ability to generate consistent net income. A yield at this level can provide a degree of support for the share price and offers a cash return to investors while they wait for the potential realization of the merger’s strategic and financial benefits.

The following table provides a comparative overview of Ayvens’ valuation multiples against its historical averages and key competitors.

Table 4: Valuation Multiples vs. Peers and Historical Average

Metric	Ayvens (Current TTM)	Ayvens (5-Yr Avg)	Arval (BNP Paribas)	Alphabet (BMW Group)
P/E Ratio	~12.5x	~8.0x	~9.0x	~10.5x
P/B Ratio	~0.7x	~1.0x	~1.2x	~1.1x
EV/EBITDA	~3.8x	~5.5x	N/A	N/A
Dividend Yield (%)	~3.9%	~5.0%	~4.5%	~3.5%

Note: Peer multiples are for the parent companies (BNP Paribas and BMW Group) as the leasing subsidiaries are not separately listed. Historical averages are estimates based on available data. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.

The valuation narrative for Ayvens is clear: the market is pricing in a significant amount of risk. The discount to both its own historical valuation and its peers’ is the price investors must pay for the uncertainty surrounding the two most critical issues facing the company: the successful execution of the LeasePlan integration and the effective management of electric vehicle residual value risk. This creates a distinct risk-reward proposition. If management successfully delivers on the “PowerUP 2026” plan, achieves its synergy targets, and navigates the EV transition without major asset impairments, there is a strong case to be made for a significant re-rating of its valuation multiples. An expansion of the P/B ratio back towards 1.0x or higher, combined with underlying earnings growth, could deliver substantial returns. Conversely, if the identified risks materialize, the current low valuation may prove to have been a fair reflection of the company’s challenged prospects.

Management & Governance

Leadership Team Track Record and Experience

Ayvens is led by an experienced executive team comprised of veterans from both the legacy ALD Automotive and LeasePlan organizations, ensuring a blend of institutional knowledge and diverse perspectives during the critical integration phase.

• Executive Committee: The Group is led by Chief Executive Officer Tim Albertsen, who has been with ALD for many years and was the primary architect of the LeasePlan acquisition and the subsequent “PowerUP 2026” strategy. He is supported by a deep bench of senior executives, including Deputy CEOs John Saffrett and Berno Kleinherenbrink, and CFO Patrick Sommelet.⁷² A pivotal recent development is the announcement that Tim Albertsen will retire from his role, effective December 1, 2025. He will be succeeded by
  Philippe de Rovira, an experienced executive from within the Société Générale ecosystem.⁵⁹ This planned transition is a key event for the company, introducing a change in leadership at a crucial juncture of its strategic plan.
• Board of Directors: The Board is chaired by Pierre Palmieri, who is also the Deputy CEO of Société Générale. This highlights the deep strategic link to the parent company. The Board is composed of a mix of representatives from Société Générale, the CEO, and several independent directors who bring external expertise and oversight.⁷² The presence of experienced independent directors, such as Xavier Durand and Anik Chaumartin, in key committee chair roles is a positive governance feature.

Corporate Governance Structure and Board Composition

Ayvens operates under a robust corporate governance framework designed to ensure effective oversight, risk management, and alignment with shareholder interests. The company adheres to the AFEP-MEDEF Corporate Governance Code, the reference standard for publicly listed companies in France.⁷⁷

The governance structure was significantly enhanced following the LeasePlan acquisition and the company’s transition to a regulated Financial Holding Company. The Board of Directors has established five specialized committees to provide focused oversight on critical areas:

• Audit Committee (CACI)
• Risk Committee (CORISK)
• Remuneration Committee (COREM)
• Appointments Committee (CONOM)
• Strategic Committee (COSTRAT) ⁷⁶

The chairmanships of the crucial Audit, Risk, Remuneration, and Appointments committees are held by independent directors, which is a key tenet of good corporate governance.⁷² This structure provides a balanced approach, allowing for strategic guidance and support from the majority shareholder, Société Générale, while ensuring that independent oversight is maintained to protect the interests of all shareholders, including minorities. The Board’s internal regulations clearly define its responsibilities, which include approving the group’s strategy, ensuring the integrity of financial reporting, and overseeing the risk management framework.⁷⁸

Management Compensation Alignment with Shareholders

Ayvens’ executive compensation structure is designed to align the interests of the management team with the long-term performance of the company and the interests of its shareholders. The compensation policies are determined by the Board of Directors, based on recommendations from the Remuneration Committee, and are subject to a shareholder vote at the Annual General Meeting.⁷⁷

The compensation package for executive officers consists of a fixed salary and a variable component. The variable compensation is tied to the achievement of a set of pre-defined, measurable performance objectives, which would typically include financial targets (such as profitability and efficiency) and strategic goals (such as progress on the integration and sustainability objectives).⁷⁹

Furthermore, the company’s share buyback program is used, in part, to source shares for employee and executive incentive plans.⁵¹ The inclusion of equity-based compensation in the overall package serves to create a direct link between the wealth of the management team and the share price performance, further strengthening the alignment with shareholders.

The upcoming transition in the CEO role is a critical event. While the succession appears to be well-planned, any change in leadership during a period of such significant strategic and operational transformation introduces an element of uncertainty. The market will be closely watching the new CEO, Philippe de Rovira, for signals of continuity and for his ability to maintain the momentum of the “PowerUP 2026” plan. His performance in steering the final and most complex stages of the LeasePlan integration will be a key determinant of the company’s success in the coming years.

Recent Developments & Catalysts

Recent Quarterly Results and Guidance Updates

Ayvens’ most recent financial disclosures provide strong evidence that the execution of its post-merger strategy is on track and yielding positive results.

The company reported a strong performance for the second quarter of 2025, which serves as a key proof point for the “PowerUP 2026” strategic plan. Key highlights from the quarter include:

• Net Income (Group Share): Reached €271 million, a significant increase of 38.5% compared to the same quarter in the previous year.⁷⁴
• Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE): Achieved a robust 13.7%, placing it firmly within the company’s strategic target range of 13-15%.⁷⁴
• Synergy Realization: The company captured €86 million in synergies during the quarter, demonstrating tangible progress in the integration of LeasePlan and on the path to the full €440 million annual target.⁸⁰
• Operational Efficiency: The Cost/Income ratio (excluding UCS) showed marked improvement, falling to 57.6%. This is a significant step towards the 2026 target of approximately 52%.⁷⁴
• Capital Position: The CET1 ratio remained exceptionally strong at 13.5%, well above the regulatory requirements and the company’s own target.⁷⁴

These results are particularly significant as they begin to de-risk the investment narrative. After a period of uncertainty following the merger announcement, this strong performance provides the first concrete data points suggesting that management’s strategic and financial targets are credible and achievable.

Strategic Announcements and Business Developments

Several recent announcements have further clarified the company’s strategic direction and operational progress.

1. CEO Succession Plan: The most significant recent development is the announcement of a leadership transition. Group CEO Tim Albertsen, who orchestrated the LeasePlan acquisition, announced his retirement effective December 1, 2025. The Board has appointed Philippe de Rovira, an experienced executive from Société Générale, as his successor. This ensures a planned and orderly transition at the top.⁵⁹
2. Renewal of North American Alliance: In October 2024, Ayvens announced the renewal of its crucial strategic alliance with Wheels, a leading fleet management provider in North America.⁸¹ This move is strategically vital as it secures Ayvens’ ability to offer a seamless, global service to its multinational clients, protecting a key competitive advantage in an industry where global reach is paramount.
3. Integration Progress: The company continues to make steady progress on the complex task of integrating LeasePlan. The legal merger of the two entities has now been completed in numerous overlapping countries, including key markets like France and the Netherlands, with IT system migrations proceeding according to the planned schedule.¹³

Industry Consolidation and Potential Catalysts

The vehicle leasing industry continues to be shaped by consolidation, and Ayvens’ future performance will be influenced by several potential catalysts.

• Continued Synergy Delivery: The most powerful near-term catalyst for the stock would be the consistent and transparent delivery of the planned synergies in upcoming quarterly reports. Meeting or exceeding the synergy ramp-up targets (€350 million by 2025, €440 million by 2026) would significantly boost investor confidence in the merger’s success and management’s execution capabilities.
• Stabilization of EV Residual Values: The market for used EVs remains a key area of investor concern. Any data, whether from the broader market or from Ayvens’ own UCS results, that indicates a bottoming out or stabilization of used EV prices would alleviate a major perceived risk and could trigger a positive re-rating of the stock.
• New Strategic Partnerships: The announcement of new large-scale partnerships, particularly with emerging EV manufacturers seeking a channel to market or with technology companies in the MaaS space, would reinforce Ayvens’ strategic positioning as a central player in the evolving mobility ecosystem.
• Successful Leadership Transition: A smooth and effective transition to the new CEO, Philippe de Rovira, without any disruption to the strategic plan’s momentum, will be a crucial catalyst for maintaining market confidence through 2025 and beyond.

Investment Thesis Considerations

This section synthesizes the preceding analysis to frame the key considerations for an investment thesis on Ayvens. It outlines the potential scenarios for both positive and negative outcomes and identifies the critical factors that will likely determine the company’s future performance.

Bull Case Scenarios and Key Positive Drivers

The bull case for Ayvens is predicated on the successful execution of its post-merger strategy, allowing it to fully capitalize on its dominant market position and the strong secular tailwinds in the mobility sector.

• Flawless Integration and Full Synergy Capture: In this scenario, Ayvens seamlessly completes the integration of LeasePlan, realizing the full €440 million in annual run-rate synergies by 2026. This successful execution drives the Cost/Income ratio down to the targeted ~52% and sustainably lifts the Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) into the upper end of the 13-15% target range. The market recognizes the enhanced and sustainable earnings power of the combined entity.
• Dominance in Fleet Electrification: Ayvens leverages its unparalleled scale, global network, and deep client relationships to become the undisputed partner of choice for corporations transitioning their fleets to electric vehicles. The company successfully manages the associated residual value risks through superior data analytics, disciplined underwriting, and the expansion of multi-cycle leasing products, turning a perceived industry risk into a source of competitive advantage.
• Significant Valuation Re-rating: As management consistently delivers on its strategic and financial targets, investor confidence grows. The market begins to look past the near-term integration risks and re-evaluates the company based on its strengthened market position and sustainable profitability. Consequently, the stock’s valuation multiples, particularly its Price-to-Book ratio, expand from their current discounted levels towards (or above) 1.0x and closer to historical and peer averages, resulting in significant capital appreciation for shareholders.
• Successful Diversification into MaaS: The company’s investments in its Mobility-as-a-Service platform gain significant traction, achieving the target of 200,000 active users. This creates a new, high-margin, and scalable revenue stream that diversifies the business model beyond asset-centric leasing and positions Ayvens as a true integrated mobility provider.

Bear Case Scenarios and Primary Concerns

The bear case centers on the materialization of the key risks identified in this report, primarily the failure to execute the integration and the mismanagement of risks associated with the EV transition.

• Integration Failure: The integration of LeasePlan’s disparate IT systems, processes, and corporate cultures proves more complex, costly, and time-consuming than anticipated. Synergy targets are repeatedly missed, integration costs overrun the budget, and operational disruptions lead to a loss of key customers and market share. The promised financial benefits of the merger fail to materialize, leaving the company with a bloated cost structure.
• Collapse in EV Residual Values: A perfect storm of rapid battery technology advancements, aggressive price cuts on new EVs by manufacturers, and weaker-than-expected consumer demand for used EVs leads to a sharp and sustained collapse in their residual values. Ayvens is forced to take significant impairment charges on its vast EV portfolio, which erodes its book value, decimates its net income, and puts pressure on its regulatory capital ratios.
• Severe Macroeconomic Downturn: A deep and prolonged recession across Ayvens’ key European markets triggers a cascade of negative effects. Corporate bankruptcies and rising unemployment lead to a sharp increase in credit defaults. At the same time, weak consumer and business confidence causes a collapse in demand for used cars, depressing sales prices and leading to large losses in the UCS segment. The combination of rising credit losses and falling UCS results severely impacts profitability and capital.
• Intensified Competitive Pressure: Competitors, particularly Arval and the OEM-backed lessors, respond effectively to Ayvens’ increased scale. They form their own strategic alliances, compete aggressively on price for major corporate contracts, and innovate rapidly in digital and EV services. This heightened competition erodes Ayvens’ margins and prevents it from achieving its profitability targets.

Key Performance Indicators to Monitor

To track the evolution of the investment thesis, investors should closely monitor the following key performance indicators (KPIs) in the company’s quarterly and annual reports:

• Synergy Realization: The reported quarterly and cumulative synergies captured versus the company’s stated ramp-up targets.
• Used Car Sales (UCS) Result per Unit: A key indicator of the health of the used car market and the company’s ability to manage residual value risk.
• Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE): The primary measure of shareholder profitability, tracked against the 13-15% target range.
• Cost/Income Ratio (excluding UCS): A measure of operational efficiency and progress on cost synergies, tracked against the ~52% target.
• CET1 Ratio: The key regulatory capital metric, to ensure it remains comfortably above the ~12% target.
• EV Penetration Rate: The percentage of new vehicle deliveries that are electric, to monitor progress on the strategic shift to sustainable mobility.

Ultimately, the investment case for Ayvens is a compelling but complex narrative. The company is a newly-crowned industry leader with immense scale, operating in a market supported by powerful and durable growth trends. However, it is also navigating the largest and most complex integration in its sector’s history while simultaneously managing the profound technological shift to electrification. The current valuation, at a significant discount to tangible book value, suggests that the market is acutely aware of the substantial execution risks. This creates an asymmetric risk-reward profile: if management successfully executes its “PowerUP 2026” plan, the potential for both earnings growth and a significant upward re-rating of its valuation multiple is considerable. The investment decision, therefore, hinges on an investor’s confidence in the management team’s ability to deliver on its ambitious promises and navigate the significant risks that lie ahead.

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