1.0 Executive Summary

Investment Thesis

Australia’s Big Four banks—Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), National Australia Bank (NAB), and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)—represent a stable, highly profitable, and well-capitalized oligopoly facing a structural transition. Their collective market dominance, fortified by a stringent regulatory environment, provides a formidable economic moat and underpins their consistent delivery of strong shareholder returns. However, the sector is at an inflection point, confronting significant and persistent headwinds. These challenges include intense, margin-compressing competition in core lending and deposit markets, the necessity of substantial and costly digital transformation programs to fend off nimble challengers, and the inevitable normalization of credit losses from historically benign levels.

The core investment question is whether the banks’ entrenched market positions and unparalleled operational scale can generate sufficient efficiency gains and new, digitally-native revenue streams to offset these pressures. The ability to defend market share while simultaneously managing a structural decline in net interest margins and a cyclical rise in credit costs will be the primary determinant of their capacity to sustain attractive returns on equity through the medium term. The investment landscape is therefore characterized by a delicate balance between the defensive qualities of these systemically important institutions and the tangible threats to their long-term profitability growth.

Comparative Risk-Reward Assessment

The four major banks, while sharing common industry dynamics, present distinct investment profiles:

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA): As the undisputed market leader, CBA exhibits superior profitability, digital engagement, and operational scale. This leadership is reflected in a significant and persistent valuation premium relative to its peers. This premium, however, implies minimal room for operational or strategic error and exposes the stock to considerable de-rating risk should its performance converge toward the sector average.
• National Australia Bank (NAB): NAB’s clear leadership in the attractive business and SME banking segment provides a crucial strategic differentiator and a more resilient source of earnings. While it faces the same margin and cost pressures as its peers in its retail operations, its dominance in the business sector offers a more balanced and diversified earnings profile.
• ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ): The recent acquisition of Suncorp Bank marks a pivotal strategic shift, offering a clear path to rebalance its portfolio towards domestic retail and commercial banking and improve its geographic footprint. This presents a significant growth opportunity, but the associated execution risk of integrating a major asset and realizing projected synergies introduces near-term uncertainty. Its established institutional banking arm offers global diversification but also exposes it to greater geopolitical and market volatility.
• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC): Westpac represents a potential value and turnaround opportunity. The bank is in the midst of a multi-year simplification and cost-reduction program, UNITE, aimed at addressing a historically elevated cost base. It currently lags its peers on key efficiency metrics, and the success of its investment case is heavily contingent on the disciplined execution of this complex transformation program.

Key Sector Dynamics

The Australian banking sector is fundamentally characterized by a trade-off between fortress-like balance sheets, mandated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), and moderating returns on equity. The primary competitive battleground has irrevocably shifted from physical branch networks to the digital user experience. This has ignited a defensive “arms race” in technology spending, as the incumbents race to protect their core franchises from both digital-native challengers and each other. This dynamic will continue to pressure operating expenses and capital allocation decisions for the foreseeable future, making cost control and capital management the most critical levers for driving shareholder value.

2.0 Industry Structure & Dynamics: An Entrenched Oligopoly at a Crossroads

2.1 Market Concentration & Competition: The “Quadropoly”

The Australian banking sector is one of the most concentrated in the developed world, a structure often referred to as a “quadropoly”.¹ The Big Four banks—CBA, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ—collectively control approximately three-quarters of the market for total assets, customer deposits, and home loans.¹ This highly concentrated market structure is quantitatively confirmed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a key measure of market concentration, which sits at levels considered indicative of a worrying degree of concentration by regulators like the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC).¹ Historically, this oligopolistic structure has been a primary driver of the banks’ superior profitability, allowing them to maintain wider net interest margins and generate higher returns on equity than most of their international peers.¹

Despite this entrenched position, the competitive landscape is evolving. The Big Four’s combined share of Main Financial Institution (MFI) relationships stood at 67.0% in 2024, but this figure has been subject to a gradual decline, signaling a slow but steady erosion of their collective dominance.³ Within the oligopoly, there is a clear leader: CBA commands a 32.8% MFI share, a figure more than double its nearest competitors, which are tightly clustered (ANZ at 11.6%, Westpac at 11.4%, and NAB at 11.2%).³

The competitive threats are multifaceted. Regional banks and customer-owned institutions, such as credit unions, have long argued that the market structure stifles robust competition.⁴ The ACCC has formally noted that the retail banking market is not “vigorously competitive” and that significant barriers to entry and expansion for smaller players remain material.⁵ This was a central theme in the ACCC’s initial opposition to ANZ’s acquisition of Suncorp’s banking arm. Although the Australian Competition Tribunal ultimately approved the transaction, it acknowledged the existence of these high barriers, paradoxically reinforcing the difficulty for smaller players to achieve the scale necessary to challenge the incumbents organically.⁵ More recently, newer digital-first competitors, most notably Macquarie Bank, are making tangible inroads, gaining MFI share across all age demographics by capitalizing on customer switching trends.³

The erosion of the Big Four’s market share is not a catastrophic collapse but rather a persistent “slow leak.” Their immense scale, powerful brand recognition, extensive distribution networks, and the simple inertia of their vast customer bases provide a powerful, though not impenetrable, defense. The primary threat is not a sudden, mass exodus of customers, but a continuous, grinding battle for market share fought on the dual fronts of price and technology. This dynamic implies a long-term environment of sustained pressure on both margins and operating costs as the incumbents are forced to invest heavily and compete aggressively to defend their franchises.

2.2 The Fintech Disruption and Digital Response

The structural dominance of the Big Four is being challenged by the rise of financial technology (fintech) companies. These nimble, technology-driven firms are effectively “unbundling” the traditional, vertically integrated banking model by targeting specific customer pain points with superior user experiences.⁷ This disruption is most evident in high-frequency, lower-complexity services such as payments (e.g., Afterpay, Zip), peer-to-peer lending, and retail wealth management. The growth of this sector is fueled by a confluence of factors: evolving customer expectations for seamless digital interactions, lower technological barriers to entry, and a legacy of consumer mistrust in the traditional banking sector following events like the Banking Royal Commission.⁷ The Australian fintech market is poised for substantial growth, with projections indicating a market size of USD 9.50 billion by 2033, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.90%.⁹ Digital payments represent the largest and most mature segment within this landscape.¹⁰

Neobanks and other digital-only banking challengers are also gaining traction. The Australian neobanking market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of over 8%, driven by the increasing penetration of smartphones and the broader digitalization of financial services.¹³ While many of these new entrants are not yet profitable on a standalone basis, their digital-native operating models, focus on low customer acquisition costs, and superior user interfaces exert significant competitive pressure on the incumbents.¹⁵

The Big Four’s response to this threat is a “rebundling” counter-offensive, a multi-pronged strategy designed to protect their core franchises and re-establish their value proposition in a digital-first world. This strategy involves:

1. Enhancing the Core Digital Offering: The banks are investing billions of dollars in technology modernization to improve their own mobile apps and online platforms. They are leveraging their vast customer data to create integrated digital ecosystems that extend beyond traditional banking, such as the CommBank app’s features for travel booking and retail shopping, designed to increase customer engagement and “stickiness”.¹⁶
2. Launching Flanker Brands: To compete directly with neobanks on their own terms, the majors have launched their own digital-native brands. These include NAB’s ubank, CBA’s digital mortgage brand Unloan, and ANZ’s flagship digital platform, ANZ Plus.³ These brands aim to attract younger, digitally-savvy customers by offering a streamlined experience, while being backed by the trust and balance sheet strength of the parent institution.
3. Strategic Partnerships: Recognizing they cannot innovate everywhere at once, the banks are actively forming partnerships with and making strategic investments in fintech companies to rapidly acquire new capabilities. Examples include CBA’s partnership with Mambu for Unloan and Paypa Plane for payments, and ANZ’s collaborations with Frollo for Open Banking data aggregation and CitoPlus for SME loan applications.¹⁸

The success of this comprehensive digital strategy will be a critical determinant of their ability to defend their market share and maintain their “one-stop shop” advantage in an increasingly fragmented and specialized financial services landscape.

2.3 The Regulatory Environment: A Framework of Stability and Cost

The Australian banking system operates within one of the world’s most stringent and conservative regulatory frameworks, overseen primarily by APRA. APRA’s core mandate is to ensure the stability of the financial system, which it enforces through a comprehensive and legally binding set of prudential standards covering capital adequacy, risk management, governance, and liquidity.²³ A cornerstone of this framework is the requirement for banks to hold “unquestionably strong” levels of capital, which are well in excess of the minimums required under the global Basel III accord.²⁶ This robust capital position is a key source of the system’s resilience.

The legacy of the 2018 Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry continues to shape the operating environment. It has led to a permanent and significant uplift in spending on compliance, risk management, and remediation, which has become an embedded feature of the banks’ cost structures.²⁹

A key regulatory initiative aimed at fostering competition is the Consumer Data Right (CDR), commonly known as Open Banking. The CDR framework gives consumers the right to securely share their financial data with accredited third parties, with the goal of making it easier to compare products and switch providers.⁵ While the long-term potential of the CDR to disrupt the market is significant, consumer adoption has been slow to date, with one report finding that only 0.31% of bank customers were using the system at the end of 2023.³¹ Nevertheless, the government remains committed to the initiative, with recent reforms announced to expand its scope, suggesting its influence on competition and price transparency will grow over time.³⁰

Monetary policy is conducted by the independent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), whose setting of the official cash rate is the primary tool for influencing economic activity. The transmission of this policy through the banking system directly impacts bank funding costs and the lending and deposit rates offered to customers.³² APRA complements this with macroprudential policies, such as setting minimum interest rate serviceability buffers for mortgage applications, to ensure that prudent lending standards are maintained throughout the economic cycle.³⁴

This comprehensive regulatory framework acts as a double-edged sword for bank investors. On one hand, it creates a formidable barrier to entry, protecting the profitable oligopoly from disruptive, under-capitalized new entrants and ensuring the overall stability of the system—a significant positive for long-term equity holders. On the other hand, it imposes a direct and material drag on returns. The high capital requirements directly suppress return on equity (ROE) by inflating the equity base, while the ever-increasing costs of compliance with regulations covering operational risk, cybersecurity, and financial crime add to an already high cost base.¹⁶ APRA’s recent move to formalize a three-tiered approach to regulation, which may lower the burden on smaller competitors, could further intensify this competitive pressure.³⁵ Therefore, an investment in the Big Four is an investment in a system explicitly designed for safety and stability, potentially at the expense of high growth and capital efficiency.

3.0 Business Model Analysis: The Core Engine Under Pressure

3.1 Revenue Streams: The Primacy of Net Interest Income

The fundamental business model of the Big Four banks is centered on the generation of Net Interest Income (NII), which consistently constitutes the vast majority of their operating income. NII is the difference between the interest earned on assets (primarily loans to households and businesses) and the interest paid on liabilities (primarily customer deposits and wholesale funding). In recent periods, the banks have reported record-high NII in absolute dollar terms, a direct result of significant growth in their loan portfolios.¹⁶

However, the underlying profitability of this core activity is being squeezed. Net Interest Margins (NIMs)—the key ratio of NII to average interest-earning assets—are under significant and sustained pressure.¹⁶ This compression is the result of several converging factors. First, intense competition in the mortgage market has forced all banks to offer sharply priced loans to attract and retain customers.³⁶ Second, on the liability side of the balance sheet, fierce competition for customer deposits has driven up funding costs, as customers have shifted their savings from low-rate transaction accounts to higher-yielding term deposits.¹⁶ Third, the final repayments of the RBA’s cheap Term Funding Facility (TFF) in mid-2024 removed a significant source of low-cost funding from the system, forcing banks to replace it with more expensive wholesale debt and deposits.²⁸ This combination of pressure on both asset yields and liability costs creates a challenging environment for margin expansion.

Non-interest income, derived from sources such as account fees, wealth management services, and institutional banking activities, provides a secondary revenue stream. This category, often referred to as Other Operating Income (OOI), has been a mixed contributor to overall results, with some periods of weakness observed.¹⁶ Following the Royal Commission, the Big Four have largely divested their vertically integrated wealth management and insurance businesses. While this has simplified their operations and reduced regulatory risk, it has also removed a valuable source of diversified, capital-light earnings, increasing their reliance on the performance of their core lending businesses.

In terms of business mix, all four banks have a primary operational focus on the mature and stable markets of Australia and New Zealand. ANZ has historically maintained a more pronounced institutional and international banking footprint, particularly across Asia, which provides geographic diversification but also exposes it to different economic and geopolitical risks.³⁸ In contrast, CBA, Westpac, and NAB are more heavily weighted towards domestic retail and business banking.¹⁹ Profitability is driven by these core segments, with recent trends showing strong growth in business lending and a notable decline in balances for higher-risk, unsecured consumer lending.¹⁶

3.2 Asset Quality & Risk Management: Normalisation from a High Base

The loan portfolios of the Big Four are dominated by residential mortgages, making their performance intrinsically linked to the health of the Australian housing market.⁴¹ This concentration is a source of stability when the property market is strong but represents the single largest risk sensitivity in a downturn. Business lending, particularly to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), is a key strategic focus and growth area, most notably for NAB, which holds the leading market share in this segment.¹⁶ Exposures to more cyclical sectors, such as commercial real estate (CRE) and resources, are actively managed and represent a smaller portion of their overall loan books.

After a period of exceptionally benign conditions, asset quality is beginning to normalize. While overall loan losses remain very low by historical standards, clear signs of stress are emerging.²⁶ The value of impaired assets is growing at a faster pace than the overall loan portfolio, and the share of non-performing loans (NPLs) is trending upwards from a cyclical trough.¹⁶ This deterioration is primarily being driven by the housing loan portfolio, where some households are struggling to manage the combined impact of high inflation and the sharp rise in interest rates since 2022.²⁷ The share of mortgages that are 30 to 89 days past due—an early indicator of future stress—has also increased from its low base.²⁶

In response to this outlook, the banks continue to maintain robust and conservative provisioning against potential credit losses. Total provisions are held at levels that cover the current stock of impaired assets by a strong multiple, providing a significant buffer to absorb future losses.¹⁶

Despite the observable increase in loan arrears, the actual credit losses realized by the banks have remained exceptionally low.²⁷ The primary mitigating factor has been the remarkable resilience of the Australian housing market.²⁷ Persistently strong property prices have provided a crucial safety net. Even when borrowers face severe financial stress and fall into arrears, the high value of their property (the bank’s collateral) often allows them to sell the asset and repay their debt in full. This dynamic insulates the banks from incurring a capital loss on the loan.

This makes the outlook for the housing market a critical variable for the banks’ performance. A scenario of flat or modestly rising house prices would allow the banks to manage the expected increase in arrears with only a minimal impact on their profitability. However, the “perfect storm” scenario, as modeled in APRA’s severe but plausible stress tests, would involve a sharp fall in house prices (e.g., a 40% decline) combined with a significant rise in the unemployment rate.³⁵ This combination would be particularly damaging, as it would simultaneously trigger a wave of new defaults while also impairing the value of the banks’ primary form of collateral, leading to a substantial increase in credit losses.

4.0 Individual Bank Competitive Positioning

4.1 Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA): The Premium Incumbent

Market Position:

CBA holds a dominant and undisputed leadership position in the Australian banking landscape. It is the nation’s largest bank by market capitalization, total assets, and customer base.45 Its franchise strength is most evident in retail banking, where it commands the leading market share in the critical categories of home loans and household deposits.46 Its MFI share of 32.8% is more than the combined share of ANZ and NAB.3 This retail dominance is complemented by a leading position in business banking, particularly in business transaction accounts.45 In the 2024 financial year, the bank’s scale was demonstrated by helping over 120,000 customers purchase a home and extending $39 billion in new lending to businesses.47

Operational Efficiency:

Historically, CBA has been the benchmark for operational efficiency among its peers, consistently delivering a best-in-class cost-to-income ratio. However, this key metric has risen, reaching 45.0% in FY24, reflecting the industry-wide pressures of wage inflation and significant ongoing investment in technology and risk management.48 The bank’s digital leadership is a core component of its operational model, with 8.5 million active users of its market-leading CommBank app, a significant increase from 7.8 million in the prior year.17

Strategic Differentiation:

CBA’s primary competitive advantage is its immense scale. This scale creates a virtuous cycle: it provides a structural funding cost advantage through its vast, low-cost deposit base, and it generates the financial capacity to undertake massive, multi-billion-dollar investments in technology, marketing, and product development that smaller competitors cannot match. The bank’s brand is exceptionally strong, consistently ranking highest among peers in reputation scores.47 Its strategy is explicitly focused on leveraging this digital leadership to “reimagine banking” by creating integrated, personalized customer experiences that extend beyond core financial services.49 This is supported by a sophisticated partnership strategy, which includes collaborating with leading fintechs like Mambu to power its Unloan digital mortgage brand and Paypa Plane to innovate in the payments space.18

Financials (FY24):

For the financial year ended 30 June 2024, CBA reported a cash Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) of $9.8 billion. It generated a Return on Equity (ROE) of 13.6% and maintained a strong Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 12.3%. The cost-to-income ratio was 45.0%.47

4.2 Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC): The Turnaround Play

Market Position:

Westpac is the second-largest bank in Australia by assets, holding a particularly strong position in the mortgage and household deposit markets where it is the number two player behind CBA.46 The bank has spent several years in a period of simplification, divesting non-core assets and undertaking a significant program of risk and compliance remediation to address legacy issues.

Operational Efficiency:

Improving operational efficiency is the central pillar of Westpac’s current strategy and the key focus for investors. Its cost-to-income ratio has been elevated relative to its peers, a legacy of a more complex organizational structure and technology environment.39 To address this, the bank has launched “UNITE,” a major, multi-year business and technology simplification program. The goal of UNITE is to modernize its technology stack, consolidate systems (such as reducing three deposit processors to one), and create a more sustainable, lower-cost operating model for the long term.39 A significant milestone in its broader transformation was the completion of its Customer Outcomes and Risk Excellence (CORE) program, which satisfied the regulator and led APRA to reduce a previously imposed $500 million operational risk capital overlay.51

Strategic Differentiation:

The investment case for Westpac is fundamentally a turnaround story. Its success hinges on the effective execution of its simplification and cost-out strategy. The bank is focused on improving core customer service metrics, particularly by reducing mortgage approval times, which have been a point of competitive disadvantage in the past.51 If the UNITE program can deliver on its promised efficiency gains, there is significant potential for a re-rating of the bank’s valuation as its profitability metrics converge with those of its more efficient peers.

Financials (FY24):

For the financial year ended 30 September 2024, Westpac reported a net profit of $7.0 billion. It generated a Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) of 11.0% and finished the year with a CET1 capital ratio of 12.5%.39

4.3 National Australia Bank (NAB): The Business Banking Leader

Market Position:

NAB’s key strategic advantage and defining characteristic is its position as Australia’s largest business bank.19 This leadership in the business and SME segment provides a strong, relationship-driven earnings base that is less commoditized than the retail mortgage market. In the highly competitive home lending market, NAB has demonstrated a disciplined approach, consciously slowing its growth to below system levels to prioritize returns over volume.19 It also maintains a strong and well-regarded franchise in Corporate and Institutional banking.19

Operational Efficiency:

NAB has made significant strides in improving efficiency, delivering $453 million in productivity benefits in FY24, which helped to contain the growth in its operating expenses.19 Its cost-to-income ratio for the year was 46.6%.54 The bank has successfully transitioned its customers to digital channels, with over 93% of all customer interactions now occurring digitally.19

Strategic Differentiation:

NAB’s strategy is centered on its “relationship-led” banking model, particularly in its core business banking franchise. The bank is investing heavily in digital tools and data analytics not to replace this model, but to enhance it, providing its bankers with better tools to serve their clients. In the retail space, its digital-only brand, ubank, is a key part of its strategy to attract and acquire a younger customer demographic with a distinct, low-cost value proposition.19

Financials (FY24):

For the financial year ended 30 September 2024, NAB reported cash earnings of $7.1 billion. It generated a cash ROE of 11.6% and maintained a CET1 capital ratio of 12.35%.19

4.4 Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ): The Strategic Pivot

Market Position:

ANZ has traditionally been distinguished by its strong institutional banking franchise and a more significant international network than its peers. However, the bank is in the midst of a major strategic pivot to rebalance its business mix. The cornerstone of this strategy is the recent acquisition of Suncorp Bank, a transformative transaction designed to significantly increase ANZ’s scale and market share in the attractive Australian retail and commercial banking segments, particularly in the fast-growing state of Queensland.55

Operational Efficiency:

ANZ’s operating expenses to operating income ratio was 51.3% in FY24, the highest among the Big Four.38 A key focus of its technology strategy is the “Dual Platform Future.” This involves concurrent investment in its new retail digital platform, ANZ Plus, which is designed to improve the customer experience and financial wellbeing, and its institutional platform, ANZ Transactive Global, which serves its corporate and institutional clients.55

Strategic Differentiation:

ANZ’s strategy is to build a simpler, better bank with a clear focus on three societal challenges: improving financial wellbeing, supporting access to housing, and enabling sustainability.38 The ANZ Plus platform is the primary vehicle for delivering this strategy in the retail market. It has shown strong early momentum, achieving significant customer and deposit growth and successfully leveraging Open Banking technology to allow customers to view accounts from other banks within the ANZ Plus app.31 The bank also actively partners with fintechs, such as Frollo and CitoPlus, to enhance its digital capabilities and streamline processes like loan applications.21

Financials (FY24):

For the financial year ended 30 September 2024, ANZ reported a cash profit of $6.9 billion (excluding one-off accounting impacts from the Suncorp acquisition). It generated a ROE of 12.2% and had a CET1 capital ratio of 12.2%.38

5.0 & 6.0 Financial Performance, Growth, and Capital Allocation

Profitability Trends and Outlook

The profitability of the major banks, as measured by Return on Equity (ROE), has moderated from the cyclical peaks seen in the immediate post-pandemic recovery. The combined profit after tax for the majors was $29.9 billion in FY24, down 5.7% from the prior year, with the average ROE declining by 80 basis points to 10.9%.⁵⁷ This moderation is a direct consequence of the industry-wide headwinds of NIM compression and rising operating costs. Within the peer group, CBA consistently delivers a superior ROE, reporting 13.6% in FY24, a testament to its scale advantages and operational efficiency.⁵⁰ The outlook for profitability is challenging; with interest rates expected to fall, further pressure on NIMs is likely, while significant ongoing investment in technology and compliance will keep costs elevated.

Balance Sheet Strength and Funding

A core strength of the Big Four is their exceptionally strong balance sheets. All four banks are robustly capitalized, with an average CET1 ratio of approximately 12.3%, comfortably above APRA’s “unquestionably strong” benchmarks.²⁸ This provides a massive buffer to absorb potential losses in a severe economic downturn. The funding profile of the sector has also strengthened considerably since the global financial crisis. Customer deposits now represent a higher proportion of total funding, a trend which has continued in recent years.¹⁶ This shift towards stable, “sticky” retail and business deposits enhances financial stability but has also contributed to the rise in overall funding costs. Liquidity positions are robust, with the average Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) for the sector at 134.5%, well above the regulatory minimum of 100%.⁵⁷

Growth and Strategic Initiatives

Organic growth for the banks is intrinsically linked to the performance of the broader Australian economy, driven by factors such as population growth, household formation, and business investment.⁵⁸ In the current environment of modest economic growth, the key strategic initiatives are focused on defending and enhancing market position rather than aggressive expansion. These initiatives are dominated by technology modernization and the development of digital platforms, such as ANZ Plus and NAB’s ubank, which are designed to improve customer experience and reduce long-term operating costs. For ANZ, the successful integration of Suncorp Bank represents its most significant strategic priority and growth driver. The theme of major Asian expansion, which was a focus for some banks in the previous decade, has been largely abandoned in favor of a renewed focus on the core, highly profitable domestic markets of Australia and New Zealand.

Capital Allocation Framework

The Big Four are mature businesses that generate substantial surplus capital, and their capital allocation framework is a critical component of the investment case. They are committed to returning a significant portion of their earnings to shareholders, maintaining high dividend payout ratios. For example, CBA’s payout ratio was 79% in FY24, while NAB’s was 73.7%.¹⁹ A key feature for domestic investors is that these dividends are typically fully franked, providing a tax-effective income stream. In addition to dividends, the banks are actively using on-market share buybacks as a key tool for capital management. These buybacks serve a dual purpose: they return surplus capital to shareholders when it cannot be deployed for growth at an adequate rate of return, and they actively manage the banks’ ROE by reducing the total equity base.¹⁹

The combination of high mandatory capital levels, intense margin competition, and rising technology and compliance costs creates a structural “ceiling” on the ROE that the banks can sustainably generate. While they remain highly profitable institutions, a return to the high-teen ROEs of the pre-GFC era appears highly unlikely in the current regulatory and competitive environment. This reality elevates the importance of disciplined capital management and rigorous cost control as the most critical levers for creating shareholder value. With top-line revenue growth likely to be modest and margin expansion difficult to achieve, the ability to operate efficiently and return surplus capital effectively will be the key differentiators of performance.

7.0 Risk Assessment: A Benign but Evolving Landscape

Credit Risk

Credit risk—the risk of loss arising from a borrower’s failure to meet their repayment obligations—is the primary financial risk for the banking sector. The current credit environment is characterized by a normalization of risk from the exceptionally low levels seen during the pandemic. While historical and current credit losses remain low, the forward-looking indicators point to a gradual deterioration.²⁷ The key sensitivities are the Australian housing market, given the dominance of mortgages on the banks’ balance sheets, and the financial health of the SME sector, which is a key driver of the business lending portfolio. Provisions for expected credit losses are considered adequate for the base case economic outlook, but they would be severely tested in a scenario involving a sharp rise in unemployment or a significant fall in house prices.³⁵ APRA’s regular stress tests consistently show that the banks are resilient enough to withstand a severe but plausible economic downturn, but their profitability would be materially impacted in such a scenario.³⁵

Operational & Strategic Risks

While credit risk is cyclical, operational and strategic risks are becoming increasingly structural and significant.

• Technology and Cybersecurity: This has emerged as a major and growing risk for the financial system. The banks’ increasing reliance on digital platforms, cloud computing, and interconnected third-party vendors amplifies their exposure to a sophisticated and constantly evolving landscape of threats, including cyber-attacks, data breaches, fraud, and scams.¹⁶ Regulators are highly focused on this area, and a significant cyber incident could result in substantial financial losses, regulatory penalties, and severe reputational damage.⁶⁰ Furthermore, there is significant execution risk associated with the large-scale, multi-year technology transformation projects being undertaken by the banks, such as Westpac’s UNITE program. Delays, cost overruns, or failure to realize projected benefits from these projects pose a material risk to their strategic objectives.
• Regulatory and Compliance Risk: The regulatory burden on the banks remains intense. The risk of substantial fines and penalties for non-compliance with regulations, particularly in areas like anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CTF), remains high. The ongoing costs of adhering to the heightened standards of conduct and governance that were a legacy of the Royal Commission, combined with the need to adapt to evolving prudential standards from APRA, add to the operational complexity and cost base of the institutions.²⁴

8.0 Valuation Analysis: A Tale of Two Tiers

Current Valuation Metrics

The valuation of the Big Four banks is characterized by a stark and persistent divergence. CBA trades at a significant premium to its three major peers on virtually every key valuation metric. The other three banks—WBC, NAB, and ANZ—trade at more modest and broadly comparable multiples.

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios: As of July 2025, CBA’s P/E ratio was in the high range of approximately 28-30x. In contrast, Westpac and NAB traded at around 16-17x, and ANZ was the cheapest at approximately 13-14x.⁴⁵
• Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratios: This divergence is even more pronounced on a P/B basis, a critical metric for bank valuation. CBA’s P/B ratio was exceptionally high at approximately 3.9x. NAB traded at a more conventional 1.9x, while ANZ was valued at around 1.2x book value.⁷¹
• Dividend Yield: The dividend yields are attractive across the board, reflecting the banks’ mature nature and high payout ratios. However, due to its much higher share price, CBA’s yield is consistently the lowest of the four. As of late 2024/early 2025, indicative yields were approximately 2.7% for CBA, 4.7% for Westpac, 4.4% for NAB, and 5.7% for ANZ.⁴⁵

Valuation Methodology

Two primary methodologies are most appropriate for valuing mature banking institutions:

1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Given the banks’ stable business models and commitment to high dividend payout ratios, the DDM is a relevant approach for estimating intrinsic value based on the present value of future dividend streams.
2. Return on Equity vs. Cost of Equity (P/B Analysis): This is the core framework for bank valuation. The sustainable ROE a bank can generate relative to its cost of equity (the return required by investors) is the fundamental driver of its P/B ratio. A bank that can sustainably generate an ROE above its cost of equity should trade at a P/B ratio greater than 1.0. The size of this premium is a function of the magnitude and sustainability of this “excess return.”

Key Valuation Drivers

The market justifies CBA’s substantial valuation premium on the basis of its higher and more stable ROE, its dominant market leadership, and a perception of lower operational and financial risk. However, this premium is a subject of intense debate among analysts, with many consensus price targets sitting significantly below its prevailing market price, suggesting a widespread view that the stock is overvalued.⁴⁵

The valuation of the other three banks is more closely tied to the market’s perception of their ability to execute on their specific strategic priorities. The potential for a re-rating in Westpac’s shares is linked to the successful delivery of its cost-out program. NAB’s valuation is supported by the continued strong performance of its leading business banking franchise. ANZ’s valuation will be heavily influenced by its ability to successfully integrate the Suncorp Bank acquisition and realize the expected synergies.

An analysis of CBA’s premium suggests it is difficult to justify on fundamental grounds alone. The Gordon Growth Model provides a theoretical framework for the P/B ratio, defined as (ROE−g)/(CoE−g), where ‘g’ is the sustainable growth rate and ‘CoE’ is the cost of equity. Assuming a reasonable CoE of approximately 10% and a long-term growth rate of 3-4%, CBA’s sustainable ROE of around 13.6% would theoretically justify a P/B ratio in the range of 1.5x to 1.7x. Its actual trading multiple of nearly 4.0x ⁷¹ implies that the market is either pricing in a much lower cost of equity (attributing an unprecedented safety premium to the stock), expecting a dramatic and sustainable increase in its ROE (which seems unlikely given the industry headwinds), or that the stock is in a valuation bubble driven by its large index weighting and its reputation as a “safe haven” asset for investors seeking to avoid other market risks.⁸⁰ This analysis concludes that CBA’s valuation carries significant de-rating risk if its performance fails to exceed already lofty expectations.

9.0 Macroeconomic Sensitivity

Interest Rate Environment

The prevailing interest rate environment is a critical driver of bank performance. The prospect of future interest rate cuts by the RBA presents a mixed and complex outlook. On the positive side, lower rates would ease the financial pressure on borrowers, particularly those with large mortgages, which should help to contain the rise in credit losses and support loan demand. On the negative side, a falling rate environment is typically a headwind for NIMs.³⁶ This is because bank assets (loans) tend to reprice downwards more quickly and to a greater extent than their liabilities (deposits), compressing the margin between the two. The intense competition in the deposit market may limit the banks’ ability to pass on rate cuts to savers, further squeezing margins.

Economic Cycle Exposure

The performance of the Big Four is highly correlated with the health of the domestic economic cycle. Their earnings are sensitive to key macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth, the unemployment rate, consumer confidence, and business investment.⁵⁸ A robust economy with low unemployment supports strong credit growth and low loan losses. Conversely, a recession would lead to a contraction in lending, a sharp rise in bad debts, and a significant fall in profitability. As demonstrated by APRA’s stress tests, the banks are capitalized to withstand a severe downturn without threatening financial stability, but their earnings and share prices would be severely impacted in such a scenario.³⁵

Housing Market

The Australian housing market is the single largest macroeconomic sensitivity for the Big Four, given the dominance of residential mortgages on their balance sheets. A stable or rising housing market provides a supportive backdrop, underpinning both credit growth and asset quality by bolstering the value of their primary form of collateral.⁴³ A significant and sustained downturn in national house prices remains the key tail risk for the sector. Such an event would not only curtail demand for new lending but would also increase losses on defaulting loans by reducing the recovery rates from the sale of mortgaged properties.⁸³

10.0 Research Deliverables

10.1 Peer Comparison Matrix

The following table provides a comparative summary of the Big Four banks across key financial, operational, and valuation metrics based on the most recent full-year reporting periods (FY24) and market data as of mid-2025.

Metric	CBA	WBC	NAB	ANZ	Peer Average
Market Position
Market Capitalisation (AUD bn)	~$309.2	~$116.3	~$120.9	~$86.6	~$158.3
Total Assets (AUD bn)	$1,134.9	$1,081.0	$905.3	$756.4	$969.4
MFI Share (%)	32.8%	11.4%	11.2%	11.6%	16.8%
Home Loan Market Share (Owner-Occ, AUD bn)	$388.8	$322.0	$220.8	$211.2	$285.7
Profitability & Efficiency
Cash NPAT (FY24, AUD bn)	$9.8	$7.0	$7.1	$6.9	$7.7
Net Interest Margin (NIM)	1.99%	1.95%	1.71%	1.57%	1.81%
Cost-to-Income Ratio	45.0%	51.0%	46.6%	51.3%	48.5%
Return on Equity (ROE)	13.6%	10.0%	11.6%	9.7%	11.2%
Return on Assets (ROA)	0.8%	0.7%	0.7%	0.5%	0.7%
Asset Quality
Non-Performing Loans / Gross Loans	~1.0%	~1.1%	~1.4%	~1.1%	~1.15%
Provision Coverage (% of RWA)	1.66%	1.34%	1.47%	1.18%	1.41%
Capital & Liquidity
CET1 Capital Ratio	12.3%	12.5%	12.35%	12.2%	12.3%
Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR)	136%	132%	137%	N/A	~135%
Valuation (Mid-2025)
Price / Earnings (P/E) Ratio	~28.1x	~16.4x	~16.2x	~13.6x	~18.6x
Price / Book (P/B) Ratio	~3.9x	~1.5x	~1.9x	~1.2x	~2.1x
Dividend Yield (%)	~2.7%	~4.7%	~4.4%	~5.7%	~4.4%

Sources:.³ Note: Some metrics are derived from different reporting periods (June vs. Sept year-ends) and sources, and are intended for comparative purposes.

10.2 Scenario Analysis (3-Year Horizon)

• Base Case: This scenario assumes a continuation of the current economic trajectory, characterized by modest GDP growth in the 1.8% to 2.2% range and inflation gradually returning to the RBA’s 2-3% target band by mid-2025.⁵⁸ In this environment, the RBA undertakes a gradual and measured easing of the cash rate. This leads to stable but low single-digit credit growth. NIMs remain under pressure due to the lagged effect of asset repricing in a lower rate environment and ongoing competition. Credit costs experience a slow and orderly normalization, with non-performing loans rising modestly but remaining below long-term historical averages. Bank profitability is stable but uninspiring, with ROEs remaining in the low double-digits.
• Bull Case: This scenario envisages a successful “soft landing” for the Australian economy. GDP growth proves more resilient than expected, supported by strong population growth and a recovery in household consumption. The housing market remains stable, supported by lower interest rates and a persistent supply-demand imbalance. In this environment, the banks’ significant investments in technology begin to yield tangible productivity gains, leading to a flattening or reduction in their cost-to-income ratios. This combination of stronger-than-expected loan growth, stable NIMs, and improving operating leverage allows the banks to deliver positive earnings growth, and credit costs remain exceptionally low.
• Bear Case: This scenario is triggered by a global economic downturn, potentially originating from geopolitical shocks or further weakness in China’s property sector, which transmits to Australia via lower commodity prices and trade volumes.³⁵ This leads to a domestic recession, with GDP contracting, unemployment rising significantly above 6%, and a material correction in the housing market of over 15%.³⁵ This would result in negative credit growth, a sharp contraction in NIMs as credit demand collapses, and a substantial spike in credit impairment charges that would test the adequacy of current provisions and capital buffers. While the banks would remain solvent, their profitability would be severely impacted, leading to dividend cuts and a significant de-rating of their share prices.

10.3 Risk-Adjusted Return Assessment

• CBA: Offers the lowest potential forward returns from its current valuation, which appears to have priced in a flawless operational performance. The primary risk is not fundamental business deterioration but a de-rating of its historically high valuation multiple towards the sector average. It offers perceived safety and quality, but investors are paying a very high price for it.
• Westpac & ANZ: These banks offer a higher potential for capital appreciation if their respective strategies are successfully executed. For Westpac, the catalyst is the delivery of its cost-out and simplification agenda. For ANZ, it is the smooth integration of Suncorp Bank and the realization of revenue and cost synergies. However, they carry commensurately higher execution risk. Their more modest starting valuations provide a greater margin of safety if these strategies take longer than expected to deliver results.
• NAB: Presents a balanced risk-reward profile. Its strong and defensible market position in business banking provides a stable and high-quality earnings base. Its returns are likely to be closely correlated with the overall performance of the sector and the domestic economy, offering solid, market-like returns with moderate risk.

10.4 Catalyst Timeline

• Ongoing (Quarterly):

• APRA Quarterly ADI Statistics: Released quarterly, these provide the most timely industry-wide data on NIM trends, capital adequacy, liquidity, and asset quality, allowing for tracking of key sector health indicators.²⁸
• RBA Financial Stability Review (FSR) & Board Minutes: Released semi-annually (FSR) and monthly (Minutes), these provide crucial insights into the central bank’s assessment of systemic risks, the monetary policy outlook, and the overall health of the economy.²⁶
• H2 2025 – H1 2026:
• Anticipated RBA Interest Rate Decisions: The timing and magnitude of expected cash rate cuts will be a primary driver of market sentiment, NIM forecasts, and the outlook for credit costs.⁸⁰
• FY25 – FY26:

• Westpac’s UNITE Program Updates: Progress reports on this key technology simplification program, provided at half-year and full-year results, will be critical indicators of the bank’s ability to execute its cost-reduction strategy.⁵¹
• ANZ’s Suncorp Bank Integration Updates: Disclosures on the progress of integrating the Suncorp Bank business, including synergy realization and management of execution risks, will be a key focus for ANZ investors.³⁸
• Ongoing:
• Regulatory & Government Updates: Announcements regarding the expansion of the Consumer Data Right (CDR), reforms to the payments system, and any other significant changes to the regulatory framework could have a material impact on the long-term competitive dynamics of the sector.¹²

Works cited

1. Report: Competition within the Australian banking sector – Parliament of Australia, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/Completed_inquiries/2010-13/bankingcomp2010/report/~/media/wopapub/senate/committee/economics_ctte/completed_inquiries/2010-13/banking_comp_2010/report/c04.ashx
2. The benefits of banking oligopoly – Honest History, accessed August 1, 2025, https://honesthistory.net.au/wp/the-benefits-of-banking-oligopoly/
3. New Trends in Banking: Digital Banks and Macquarie gaining ground in 2024, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9811-mfi-share-insights-press-release-february-2025
4. Submission to the Senate Economics Committee Inquiry: Competition within the Australian banking sector, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=0b11f5ab-6569-48b0-9b81-cc97db967a50
5. Framing the future of financial services: strengthening competition and consumer engagement | ACCC, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.accc.gov.au/about-us/news/speeches/framing-the-future-of-financial-services-strengthening-competition-and-consumer-engagement
6. Productivity Commission Inquiry into Competition in the Australian Financial System – ACCC, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/ACCC%20submission%20to%20Productivity%20Commission%20Inquiry%20into%20Competition%20in%20the%20Australian%20Financial%20System.pdf
7. How Fintech Is Disrupting Traditional Banking | UNSW Online, accessed August 1, 2025, https://studyonline.unsw.edu.au/blog/how-fintech-disrupting-traditional-banking
8. Unbundling The Big Four – What’s Next? – FinTech Australia, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.fintechaustralia.org.au/newsroom/unbundling-the-big-four-whats-next
9. Australia Fintech Market Size, Share & Industry Report, 2033 – IMARC Group, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.imarcgroup.com/australia-fintech-market
10. Australia Fintech Market Size, Competitors & Forecast, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.researchandmarkets.com/report/australia-fintech-market
11. Australia Fintech Market Size, Share & Industry Growth Research Report – 2030, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/australia-fintech-market
12. Australian fintech landscape 2024 – KPMG Australia, accessed August 1, 2025, https://kpmg.com/au/en/home/insights/2024/12/australian-fintech-landscape.html
13. Australia Neobanking Market Size, Competitors & Forecast, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.researchandmarkets.com/report/australia-direct-bank-market
14. Australia Neobanking Market Size & Share Analysis – Industry Research Report, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/australia-neobanking-market
15. The neobank era has arrived | Robeco Australia, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.robeco.com/en-au/insights/2024/09/the-neobank-era-has-arrived
16. Banking Matters | Banking and Capital Markets – PwC Australia, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.pwc.com.au/banking-capital-markets/banking-matters.html
17. Full year 2024 financial results – CommBank, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.commbank.com.au/newsroom/features/fy2024-results.html
18. CommBank partners with Mambu to develop Unloan, the CBA group’s new digital home loan – FinTech Australia, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.fintechaustralia.org.au/newsroom/commbank-partners-with-mambu-to-develop-unloan-the-cba-groups-new-digital-home-loan
19. www.nab.com.au, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nab/documents/reports/corporate/2024-annual-report-accessible-copy.docx
20. CBA partners with fintech Paypa Plane, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2022/02/CBA-partners-Paypa-Plane.html
21. ANZ partners with fintech firm CitoPlus | Mortgage Professional Australia, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.mpamag.com/au/mortgage-industry/technology/anz-partners-with-fintech-firm-citoplus/514172
22. ANZ partners with Frollo for access to Open Banking data – FinTech Australia, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.fintechaustralia.org.au/newsroom/anz-partners-with-frollo-for-access-to-open-banking-data
23. Prudential policy – APRA, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.apra.gov.au/prudential-policy
24. What is APRA? Australian Prudential Regulation Authority – ISMS.online, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.isms.online/apra/
25. What are the most common APRA standards? | Answers – 6clicks, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.6clicks.com/resources/answers/what-are-the-most-common-apra-standards
26. The Australian Financial System | Financial Stability Review – April 2023 | RBA, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2023/apr/australian-financial-system.html
27. Resilience of the Australian Financial System | Financial Stability Review – April 2025 | RBA, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2025/apr/resilience-of-the-australian-financial-system.html
28. Quarterly authorised deposit-taking institution performance statistics – highlights – APRA, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.apra.gov.au/quarterly-authorised-deposit-taking-institution-performance-statistics-highlights-1
29. Fintech Laws and Regulations Report 2025 Australia – ICLG.com, accessed August 1, 2025, https://iclg.com/practice-areas/fintech-laws-and-regulations/australia
30. Understanding Open Banking in Australia – InfoChoice, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.infochoice.com.au/savings-accounts/open-banking-australia
31. The impact of open banking in Australia and New Zealand, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.acuitymag.com/finance/the-impact-of-open-banking-in-australia-and-new-zealand
32. About Monetary Policy – Reserve Bank of Australia, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/about.html
33. Reserve Bank of Australia (RAB): What it is, History – Investopedia, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reserve-bank-of-australia.asp
34. New Lending Rules to Make Homeownership Easier for Australians with HELP Debt, accessed August 1, 2025, https://mdbco.com.au/new-lending-rules-to-make-homeownership-easier-for-australians-with-help-debt/
35. APRA Chair John Lonsdale – Speech to Australian Banking Association Conference 2025, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.apra.gov.au/news-and-publications/apra-chair-john-lonsdale-speech-to-australian-banking-association-0
36. Investors in Australia’s biggest banks face muted 2025 after strong gains | S&P Global, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/1/investors-in-australia-s-biggest-banks-face-muted-2025-after-strong-gains-86839076
37. Bank Funding in 2024 | Bulletin – April 2025 | RBA, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2025/apr/bank-funding-in-2024.html
38. 2024 ANZBGL Annual Report – ASX:AN3 (ASX:AN3) – Listcorp., accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.listcorp.com/asx/an3/profile/news/2024-anzbgl-annual-report-3113281.html
39. 2024 ANNUAL REPORT | Westpac, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/documents/pdf/aw/ic/wbc-annual-report-2024.pdf
40. Westpac Banking Corp – AnnualReports.com, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.annualreports.com/Company/Westpac-Banking-Corp
41. APRA releases quarterly authorised deposit-taking institution statistics for June 2024, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.einpresswire.com/article/742782389/apra-releases-quarterly-authorised-deposit-taking-institution-statistics-for-june-2024
42. APRA Unveils Q3 2024 Deposit-Taking Stats | Mirage News, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.miragenews.com/apra-unveils-q3-2024-deposit-taking-stats-1376494/
43. Australia’s Housing Market Forecast Financial Year 2026 – Domain Insight, accessed August 1, 2025, https://insight.domain.com.au/research-insights/reports/australias-housing-market-forecast-financial-year-2026/
44. Property market set for growth in 2025, stronger gains in 2026, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.smartmortgagebroking.com.au/learning-centre/insights/property-market-set-for-growth-in-2025-stronger-gains-in-2026/
45. The Big Four Banks: Which is the best one for investors in 2025? – Stocks Down Under, accessed August 1, 2025, https://stocksdownunder.com/big-four-banks-which-is-the-best-one/
46. 10 Biggest Banks in Australia: July 2025 – Savings.com.au, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.savings.com.au/home-loans/who-are-the-biggest-banks-in-australia
47. CBA Annual Review 2024, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.commbank.com.au/content/dam/commbank-assets/investors/docs/CBA_Annual_Review_2024.pdf
48. CBA 2024 Annual Report – CommBank, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.commbank.com.au/content/dam/commbank-assets/investors/docs/results/fy24/2024-Annual-Report_spreads.pdf
49. 2024 Annual Report – CommBank, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.commbank.com.au/about-us/investors/annual-reports/annual-report-2024.html
50. 2024 Full Year Results ASX Announcement – CommBank, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.commbank.com.au/content/dam/commbank-assets/investors/docs/results/fy24/CBA-FY24-ASX-Announcement.pdf
51. Westpac 2024 Full Year Results email to shareholders – Westpac Banking Corp (ASX:WBC), accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.listcorp.com/asx/wbc/westpac/news/westpac-2024-full-year-results-email-to-shareholders-3110730.html
52. Westpac 2024 Presentation and Investor Discussion Pack – Westpac …, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.listcorp.com/asx/wbc/westpac/news/westpac-2024-presentation-and-investor-discussion-pack-3110732.html
53. Westpac profit down 3%, but dividend up 4 cents – Sharecafe, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2024/11/04/westpac-profit-down-3-but-dividend-up-4-cents/
54. Full Year Results 2024 | NAB, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nab/documents/reports/corporate/2024-full-year-results.pdf
55. 2024 Full Year Results | ANZ, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.anz.com/content/dam/anzcom/shareholder/2024-anzghl-full-year-results-presentation-and-investor-discussion-pack.pdf
56. 2024 Full Year Results – Interest.co.nz, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/2024-11/ANZ%20presentation.pdf
57. Major banks remain resilient despite economic uncertainty – KPMG International, accessed August 1, 2025, https://kpmg.com/au/en/home/media/press-releases/2024/11/banks-remain-resilient-despite-economic-uncertainty.html
58. Australian forecasts – Economic recovery stalls as inflation persist | Ai Group, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.aigroup.com.au/resourcecentre/research-economics/economics-intelligence/2025/australian-forecasts-june2025/
59. Resilience, risks and the RBA – Deloitte, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.deloitte.com/au/en/services/economics/blogs/resilience-risks-rba.html
60. How Australian Financial Services Can Combat Evolving Cyber Risks – VBP Insights, accessed August 1, 2025, https://insights.vbp.au/how-australian-financial-services-can-combat-evolving-cyber-risks/
61. Australian Regulator Alleges Financial Firm Exposed Clients to Unacceptable Cyber Risks, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/australian-alleges-financial-cyber/
62. Cyber Security – Council of Financial Regulators, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.cfr.gov.au/financial-stability/cyber-security.html
63. PE Ratio – Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Wisesheets, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.wisesheets.io/pe-ratio/CMWAY
64. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) – Intelligent Investor, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/shares/asx-cba/commonwealth-bank-of-australia
65. www.halo-technologies.com, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.halo-technologies.com/markets/shares/asx/wbc#:~:text=The%20current%20P%2FE%20ratio,WBC%3AASX)%20is%2016.40.
66. Westpac Banking Corporation – PE Ratio – Wisesheets, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.wisesheets.io/pe-ratio/WBC.AX
67. ANZ Group Holdings Limited – PE Ratio – Wisesheets, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.wisesheets.io/pe-ratio/ANZGY
68. ANZ Group Holdings Limited – PE Ratio – Wisesheets, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.wisesheets.io/pe-ratio/ANZ.AX
69. National Australia Bank Limited (ASX:NAB) – Intelligent Investor, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/shares/asx-nab/national-australia-bank-limited
70. companiesmarketcap.com, accessed August 1, 2025, https://companiesmarketcap.com/aud/national-australia-bank/pe-ratio/
71. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF) Price/Book Ratio – MLQ.ai | Stocks, accessed August 1, 2025, https://mlq.ai/stocks/CBAUF/price-book-ratio/
72. companiesmarketcap.com, accessed August 1, 2025, https://companiesmarketcap.com/commonwealth-bank/pb-ratio/
73. ANZ Bank (ANZ.AX) – P/B ratio – Companies Market Cap, accessed August 1, 2025, https://companiesmarketcap.com/anz-bank/pb-ratio/
74. National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) PB Ratio – GuruFocus, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.gurufocus.com/term/pb-ratio/ASX:NAB
75. National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) – P/B ratio – Companies Market Cap, accessed August 1, 2025, https://companiesmarketcap.com/national-australia-bank/pb-ratio/
76. Commonwealth Bank | CBA – Dividend Yield – Trading Economics, accessed August 1, 2025, https://tradingeconomics.com/cba:au:dy
77. Westpac Banking (WBC) Stock Dividend History & Date 2025 – Investing.com, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.investing.com/equities/westpac-banking-corporation-dividends
78. ANZ Banking – Dividend Yield – Trading Economics, accessed August 1, 2025, https://tradingeconomics.com/anz:au:dy
79. National Australia Bank Limited ( NAB.AX) Dividends – Digrin, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.digrin.com/stocks/detail/NAB.AX/
80. How interest rate cuts could impact the ASX big four | IG AU, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.ig.com/au/news-and-trade-ideas/macro-intelligence–banking-on-it-250430
81. What could happen to the big 4 banks in FY26? – Motley Fool, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.fool.com.au/2025/07/01/what-could-happen-to-the-big-4-banks-in-fy26/
82. Big four banks face earnings reality check – Singapore, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.ig.com/sg/news-and-trade-ideas/macro-intelligence–template-250730
83. Why Australia’s Housing Market Will Crash in 2026 – What You Need to Know? – YouTube, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPux41nVwAA
84. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA:CBA) – Company Financials – Intelligent Investor, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/shares/asx-cba/commonwealth-bank-of-australia/financials
85. Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) – Financials – Intelligent Investor, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/shares/asx-wbc/westpac-banking-corporation/financials
86. National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB) – Financials – Intelligent Investor, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/shares/asx-nab/national-australia-bank-limited/financials
87. ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ANZ:ANZ) – Company Financials – Intelligent Investor, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/shares/asx-anz/anz-group-holdings-limited/financials
88. 3Q24 Investor Discussion Pack – Westpac, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/documents/pdf/aw/ic/WBC-3Q24-IDP.pdf
89. Quarterly authorised deposit-taking institution statistics | APRA, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.apra.gov.au/quarterly-authorised-deposit-taking-institution-statistics
90. Financial Stability | RBA, accessed August 1, 2025, https://www.rba.gov.au/fin-stability/