Introduction: An Integrated Logistics Player at a Cyclical Crossroads

ArcBest Corporation presents a complex investment case, balancing the operational resilience and market share gains of its core Asset-Based less-than-truckload (LTL) business against the strategic repositioning and performance challenges of its Asset-Light segment. The company’s significant valuation discount to peers reflects structural factors like its unionized workforce and historically lower margins. The central question is whether ArcBest’s investments in technology and its integrated service model can generate sufficient long-term value to offset these structural headwinds and close the valuation gap.

This report will conduct a multi-faceted analysis to deconstruct the drivers of ArcBest’s performance, evaluate its strategic initiatives, and assess its normalized earning power through a full economic cycle. The analysis will separate cyclical pressures from structural realities to provide a clear, data-driven perspective on the company’s future prospects, without providing a specific investment recommendation or price target.

I. The Transportation & Logistics Gauntlet: Industry Dynamics and Market Position

Transportation & Logistics Industry Overview

The U.S. transportation and logistics industry is in a period of significant flux, defined by a protracted freight recession that began in late 2022 and a slow, uneven rebalancing process extending into 2025.¹ The sector is grappling with what has been described as “stagflation” in trucking: a period of shrinking freight volumes combined with persistent, high inflation for key inputs like labor and equipment.² This environment of soft freight demand, subdued volumes, and significant margin pressure for carriers is the dominant macroeconomic backdrop against which all industry participants, including ArcBest, currently operate.¹

The Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) sector, ArcBest’s primary market, is a substantial and highly concentrated segment of the overall trucking industry. The U.S. LTL market size is estimated at approximately $114 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.13% to reach $139.6 billion by 2030.⁴ The sector is characterized by an oligopolistic structure where the top 10 carriers command a significant majority of the market’s revenue and capacity.⁵ A seismic event reshaped this landscape in 2023 with the bankruptcy of Yellow Corporation, a major LTL carrier. This event removed a substantial amount of capacity from the market, creating a rare, large-scale opportunity for the remaining players to absorb freight volume and reallocate market share.⁵

The Truckload (TL) sector, relevant to ArcBest’s Asset-Light brokerage operations, remains in a deeper cyclical trough. The TL market is highly fragmented, with 95.5% of motor carriers operating 10 or fewer trucks, leading to intense competition and price volatility.⁷ Spot rates have remained depressed, often below carriers’ operating costs, as excess capacity continues to be slowly rationalized.⁸ New orders for Class 8 trucks, a key indicator of capacity, are near multi-year lows as fleet operators delay investments amidst economic uncertainty.¹ The American Trucking Associations (ATA) projects a modest rebound, forecasting a 1.6% growth in truck volumes for 2025 after two years of declines.²

The Third-Party Logistics (3PL) market, which encompasses ArcBest’s brokerage and managed transportation services, is a vast and growing global industry valued at over $1 trillion.¹⁰ This sector is projected to grow at a robust CAGR of 8-10% through the end of the decade, fueled by the increasing complexity of global supply chains, the persistent rise of e-commerce, and the strategic imperative for businesses to outsource logistics functions to reduce costs, enhance flexibility, and focus on core competencies.¹⁰

Market Size & Growth Trends

Beneath the surface of the current cyclical downturn are powerful secular trends reshaping the logistics landscape. The most significant of these is the continued penetration of e-commerce, which fundamentally alters freight patterns. E-commerce drives demand for smaller, more frequent, and geographically dispersed shipments, a profile that is ideally suited for the hub-and-spoke model of LTL carriers.¹⁴ The corresponding build-out of regional distribution centers and micro-fulfillment hubs to support faster delivery times further reinforces the demand for regional and super-regional LTL services.¹⁴

Shifting global trade dynamics are also creating new growth avenues. A trend toward nearshoring and a diversification of supply chains away from China has elevated Mexico to become the largest exporter of goods to the United States.⁴ This has significantly increased cross-border freight volumes, creating a growth opportunity for carriers with strong U.S.-Mexico networks.⁴ While the LTL industry has lower cross-border exposure than the truckload sector, this trend represents a long-term opportunity for network expansion.²

The industry’s cyclicality remains its defining characteristic. The current downturn is closely linked to broader economic indicators, including cooling consumer demand for goods, persistent inventory destocking by retailers, and pronounced weakness in the industrial and manufacturing sectors.¹ An eventual rebound in the industrial economy, particularly in manufacturing, is widely viewed by industry executives and analysts as the primary catalyst needed to pull the LTL sector out of the current trough and into a new growth cycle.²

Regulatory & Environmental Factors

The long-term regulatory environment for the trucking industry is increasingly focused on decarbonization. The transport sector as a whole accounts for approximately 23% of global energy-related CO2 emissions, making it a primary target for climate-related policy.¹⁶ In the U.S., the federal government has established a national goal of achieving a net-zero GHG transportation system by 2050.¹⁷ Landmark legislation, including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), has allocated billions of dollars to support this transition, providing funding for electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and incentives for the deployment of low- and zero-emission commercial vehicles.¹⁷

Despite this policy push, the transition to zero-emission trucks, whether battery-electric or hydrogen fuel cell, faces formidable near-term obstacles. The total cost of ownership (TCO) for these vehicles can be up to 40% higher than for traditional diesel trucks, and the requisite public charging and hydrogen fueling infrastructure is virtually nonexistent for long-haul commercial applications.¹⁸ Consequently, adoption remains in its infancy. ArcBest has signaled its engagement with this trend by piloting Class 8 EV semi-trucks in its operations, an early but necessary step in a multi-decade transition.²⁰ In the interim, carriers are focused on improving the efficiency of their existing fleets through the purchase of newer, more fuel-efficient diesel models.²¹

Technology Disruption

Technology has become a critical battleground for competitive advantage in the logistics industry. Carriers are making substantial investments in a host of technologies aimed at improving operational efficiency, enhancing service quality, and providing greater visibility to customers. Key areas of investment include advanced route optimization software, real-time shipment tracking platforms, and dynamic pricing engines that use artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to adjust rates based on network conditions and demand.⁵ It is estimated that 90% of all commercial truck fleets will utilize some form of optimization technology by 2025.⁵

Digital freight matching platforms and an expanding ecosystem of digital brokerages continue to disrupt traditional models, particularly in the fragmented truckload market. In the warehouse and at the loading dock, automation is a growing focus. Companies are exploring and implementing technologies ranging from automated dimensioning and weighing systems to autonomous forklifts and robotics to streamline freight handling processes.¹⁰ ArcBest’s significant investment in its proprietary Vaux™ technology suite is a prime example of a legacy carrier embracing this trend to create a potential competitive differentiator.²²

Competitive Landscape

The LTL market is a competitive oligopoly where ArcBest’s ABF Freight unit contends with a small group of formidable national and regional carriers. The competitive environment is shaped by network scale, service quality, and, critically, labor structure.

• FedEx Freight (FDX): The largest LTL carrier by revenue, with over $9 billion in 2024, operating a vast network and leveraging its integration with the broader FedEx ecosystem.²⁴
• Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL): Widely considered the best-in-class operator, ODFL sets the industry benchmark for profitability and service quality. Its non-union labor model provides a significant structural cost and flexibility advantage, enabling it to consistently produce the lowest operating ratios in the industry.²⁶
• XPO, Inc. (XPO): A major non-union competitor that has focused intensely on improving service and network efficiency, resulting in significant margin improvement in recent years.²⁸
• Saia, Inc. (SAIA): Another large, non-union carrier that has been aggressively expanding its terminal network to provide national coverage, investing heavily to capture market share.⁶
• Estes Express Lines: A large, privately-held carrier that has also been a major beneficiary of the market share reallocation following Yellow’s exit.⁵

In the asset-light arena, the competitive landscape is far more fragmented. ArcBest’s brokerage and logistics services compete against a vast field that includes global giants like C.H. Robinson, the brokerage arms of other asset-based carriers like J.B. Hunt, and a long tail of thousands of smaller, non-asset-based 3PLs and freight brokers.²⁹

The current freight recession is not merely a cyclical downturn but is also acting as a catalyst for structural change within the industry. A typical recession involves lower volumes and pricing pressure that affects all carriers. The 2023 bankruptcy of Yellow Corp., however, introduced a unique dynamic by removing a significant competitor and a large amount of capacity from the market.⁵ This has created a rare opportunity for the remaining, more disciplined operators to be selective in absorbing freight. It allows carriers with strong balance sheets and superior service metrics—such as ODFL, Saia, and ArcBest—to potentially maintain better pricing discipline than would otherwise be possible in a weak demand environment. The long-term implication is that these carriers are positioned to emerge from the recession with permanently higher market share and a potentially more rational competitive and pricing landscape.

II. ArcBest’s Competitive Engine: A Company-Specific Analysis

Business Segments Deep Dive

ArcBest operates and reports its financial results through two primary segments: Asset-Based and Asset-Light. This structure is central to its integrated logistics strategy, aiming to provide customers with a comprehensive suite of solutions.

Asset-Based: This segment consists solely of ABF Freight System, the company’s foundational less-than-truckload (LTL) business and its largest subsidiary. In 2024, ABF Freight generated approximately $2.7 billion in revenue, ranking it as the seventh-largest LTL carrier in the United States.²⁴ The segment operates an extensive national network of approximately 250 campuses and service centers, which are essential for the complex process of consolidating and distributing LTL shipments across North America.³⁰ A defining characteristic of this segment is its unionized workforce, with drivers and dockworkers represented by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters.³² The business model is focused on providing high-quality, reliable LTL services, which typically command a price premium over lower-service alternatives and cater to customers with complex or time-sensitive supply chains.

Asset-Light: This segment comprises a portfolio of logistics services that primarily utilize third-party capacity providers rather than company-owned assets. It includes truckload brokerage (significantly scaled through the 2021 acquisition of MoLo Solutions), expedited logistics for time-critical shipments (Panther Premium Logistics), managed transportation solutions, and other global and household moving services.³² This segment is designed to offer customers flexibility and a broader range of solutions beyond traditional LTL. In the second quarter of 2025, the Asset-Light segment generated $341.9 million in revenue.³¹ Operationally, this segment is more exposed to the volatility of the spot freight market and generally operates at lower gross and operating margins compared to the Asset-Based segment.

Competitive Advantages

ArcBest has cultivated several competitive advantages, or a “moat,” that help defend its market position and profitability.

• Network Density: A primary barrier to entry in the national LTL market is the immense capital and time required to build a comprehensive network of terminals, breakbulk facilities, and service centers. ArcBest’s 250-facility network is a significant, hard-to-replicate asset that enables efficient freight movement and broad geographic coverage.³⁰
• Integrated Service Offering: The company’s core strategy is to be a “one-stop shop” for its customers’ logistics needs, offering a spectrum of services from LTL and truckload to expedited and managed solutions.³⁰ This integrated approach is designed to create stickier, more embedded customer relationships and generate cross-selling opportunities that increase the lifetime value of a customer. The company reports a high 99.5% retention rate from its top 50 customers, suggesting this strategy is effective with key accounts.³⁰
• Service Quality: ABF Freight has a long-standing reputation for high-quality, reliable service, a critical purchasing factor for shippers who prioritize on-time and damage-free delivery. This reputation is supported by the experience of its tenured, unionized workforce and its ongoing investments in technology and training.³⁰
• Technology and Innovation: ArcBest has made a strategic commitment to technology as a key differentiator, investing approximately $175 million annually in innovation.²³ This investment is most prominently represented by the development of the proprietary Vaux™ Technology Suite, a system designed to revolutionize freight handling and warehouse automation. This focus on developing unique technological solutions aims to create an operational advantage that is difficult for competitors to replicate.²³

Market Share and Operational Metrics

While a significant player, ArcBest’s ABF Freight holds the number seven position in the U.S. LTL market, with 2024 revenue of $2.69 billion. This places it behind market leaders like FedEx Freight ($9.1 billion), Old Dominion ($5.76 billion), XPO ($4.9 billion), and Saia ($3.2 billion).²⁴ The acquisition of MoLo was a strategic move to significantly scale the Asset-Light business, with the goal of becoming a top 15 U.S. truckload broker.³⁴

A comparison of key operational metrics against peers reveals crucial differences in strategy and performance, particularly during the current freight downturn.

• Operating Ratio (OR): This is the most critical measure of profitability and efficiency in the LTL industry, calculated as operating expenses as a percentage of revenue (a lower number is better). In the second quarter of 2025, ABF Freight’s non-GAAP OR was 92.8%.³¹ This figure is substantially higher, and thus less profitable, than the industry-leading performance of Old Dominion, which posted an OR of 74.6% in the same period.³⁷ It also lags behind other non-union peers like XPO, which reported an LTL adjusted OR of 86.2% in its most recent quarter.²⁸ This persistent profitability gap is a primary reason for ArcBest’s valuation discount relative to its peers.
• Volume vs. Yield: A stark strategic divergence is evident in recent results. In Q2 2025, ABF Freight’s daily shipments grew by a robust 5.6%.³¹ In contrast, Old Dominion’s daily shipments
  decreased by 7.3%.³⁷ Conversely, ABF’s billed revenue per hundredweight (a measure of pricing, or yield) decreased by 3.1%, impacted by lower fuel surcharges and a changing freight profile.³¹ Old Dominion, however, managed to increase its yield, excluding fuel surcharges, by 5.3%.³⁷

This data clearly indicates a “volume over price” strategy at ArcBest. The company is actively taking on new business, likely freight made available by the collapse of Yellow, even if it comes at a lower initial yield. This is a calculated risk aimed at securing long-term market share. The bet is that once these new customers are integrated into the ABF network, their freight characteristics can be optimized and their pricing can be improved over time. The risk, however, is that this lower-yielding freight could permanently dilute the network’s profitability or prove difficult to re-price when market conditions improve. This approach stands in direct opposition to Old Dominion’s strategy of prioritizing price discipline and margin protection, even at the cost of short-term volume.

The “integrated logistics” model, while strategically appealing, appears to function more as a defensive tool than an offensive one during a market downturn. The goal is to leverage the stable LTL customer base to cross-sell more volatile, asset-light services.³⁴ However, in the current weak market, the Asset-Light segment has been a drag on overall profitability, with management deliberately shedding unprofitable truckload business to improve margins.³¹ The two segments have been moving in opposite financial directions, suggesting limited positive synergy in the current environment.³¹ The primary value of the model in this context may be the flexibility it affords: the ability to scale down the more volatile brokerage business while protecting and growing the core LTL network. The model’s true synergistic growth potential is more likely to be realized in a strong, capacity-constrained freight market where customers are willing to pay a premium for a single-source provider with access to both asset and non-asset capacity.

Table 1: LTL Carrier Competitive Matrix (Latest Available Data as of Q2 2025)

Metric	ArcBest (ARCB)	Old Dominion (ODFL)	Saia (SAIA)	XPO, Inc. (XPO)
LTM Revenue	$4.0B (Consolidated)	$5.8B	$3.2B	$7.9B (Consolidated)
Q2 2025 YoY Revenue Growth	-5.0% (Consolidated)	-5.8%	-0.7%	+2.0% (Q2 2025)
Q2 2025 Shipments/Day Growth	+5.6% (Asset-Based)	-7.3%	-2.8%	+7.8% (Q3 2023)
Q2 2025 Tonnage/Day Growth	+4.3% (Asset-Based)	-9.3%	+1.1%	+3.1% (Q3 2023)
Yield (Rev/cwt) Growth	-3.1% (Asset-Based)	+5.3% (ex-fuel)	+2.7% (ex-fuel)	+6.4% (ex-fuel, Q3 2023)
Operating Ratio (Non-GAAP)	92.8% (Asset-Based)	74.6%	87.8%	86.2% (Q4 2024)
EV/EBITDA (LTM)	~5.5x	~19.9x	~10.9x	~14.2x
P/E (LTM)	~9.5x	~27.8x	~21.2x	~31.3x

Note: Data is for Q2 2025 unless otherwise specified. Peer data for XPO is from the latest available investor presentations. Valuation multiples are approximate based on latest financial data and market capitalization.

Sources: 6

III. A Century of Cycles: Financial Performance and Historical Resilience

Revenue Analysis

An examination of ArcBest’s financial performance over the past five years reveals a company that has experienced the full force of the freight cycle. Consolidated revenues surged during the pandemic-era boom, growing from $2.9 billion in 2020 to a record $5.3 billion in 2022.⁴⁵ This growth was driven by a combination of unprecedented freight demand, a tight capacity market that allowed for strong pricing, and the contribution from the MoLo Solutions acquisition, which closed in the fourth quarter of 2021 and significantly scaled the Asset-Light segment’s revenue base in 2022.⁴⁵

As the freight market began to cool in late 2022 and entered a full-blown recession in 2023, ArcBest’s revenues subsequently declined. The company navigated a challenging industrial economy and soft freight markets throughout 2024.²¹ For the second quarter of 2025, consolidated revenue was $1.0 billion, a 5% decrease from the prior-year period, reflecting the persistent weakness in the macroeconomic environment.³¹

The two segments have shown divergent revenue trends during this downturn. The Asset-Based segment has demonstrated resilience, with Q2 2025 revenue of $713.3 million, roughly flat compared to the prior year, as market share gains and a 5.6% increase in daily shipments offset pricing pressure.³¹ In contrast, the Asset-Light segment’s revenue fell 12.9% on a per-day basis to $341.9 million, a result of soft market rates and a strategic decision to reduce less profitable truckload volumes.³¹

Profitability Metrics

ArcBest’s profitability has followed a similar cyclical trajectory. The company achieved record annual net income in both 2021 and 2022, with non-GAAP net income reaching $348.4 million ($13.66 per diluted share) in 2022.⁴⁵ This peak in profitability was driven by strong pricing and high utilization in the Asset-Based segment, which posted a record-low non-GAAP operating ratio in that period.

However, as market conditions softened, profitability has compressed. In Q2 2025, consolidated non-GAAP operating income was $45 million, down from $64 million in the prior year.⁴⁶ The Asset-Based segment’s non-GAAP operating ratio deteriorated by 300 basis points year-over-year to 92.8%, reflecting the impact of taking on lower-yielding freight and higher labor costs.³¹ Despite the revenue decline, the Asset-Light segment showed a significant profitability improvement, swinging from a non-GAAP operating loss of $2.5 million in Q2 2024 to a profit of $1.1 million in Q2 2025, a direct result of cost controls and shedding unprofitable business.³¹ This highlights a structural improvement in the Asset-Light segment’s cost discipline, even as its top line remains under pressure.

Cash Flow Generation

ArcBest has a solid track record of cash flow generation through various market cycles. In the last twelve months, the company generated $231.8 million in operating cash flow and, after accounting for $160.2 million in capital expenditures, produced $71.6 million in free cash flow.⁴⁷ The company’s ability to consistently generate cash has supported its long-standing capital return program. ArcBest has maintained dividend payments for 23 consecutive years, a testament to the resilience of its cash flow even during downturns.⁴⁶

Balance Sheet Strength

The company maintains a solid balance sheet and adequate liquidity. As of the end of Q2 2025, ArcBest had approximately $115 million in cash and total debt of $241 million.⁴⁸ The company has access to additional liquidity through a $250 million revolving credit facility and an accounts receivable securitization program, providing financial flexibility to navigate the current market and continue investing in strategic initiatives.⁴⁸ The balance sheet has been managed to support both organic investment and strategic M&A, as well as consistent returns to shareholders.

Historical Cyclicality

The current freight downturn is not the first ArcBest has faced. Management has explicitly compared the current challenges to the severe recession of 2008-2009, highlighting the strategic evolution of the company since that time.⁴⁶ The key difference is ArcBest’s transformation from a pure-play LTL carrier into an integrated logistics provider. The development of the Asset-Light segment was a direct strategic response to the cyclicality of the asset-intensive LTL business. While this diversification has not fully insulated the company from the freight cycle, it has provided more levers to pull in terms of cost management and service offerings. The current performance demonstrates that while the core LTL business has become structurally more profitable than in past cycles, the addition of a large truckload brokerage business has also increased the company’s overall exposure to the highly volatile spot market. This has the potential to increase earnings volatility, running somewhat counter to the original diversification narrative.

Table 2: ArcBest Segment Financial Summary (Annual)

Metric (in millions)	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Revenue
Asset-Based	$2,090	$2,573	$3,010	$2,810	$2,690
Asset-Light	$892	$1,399	$2,499	$1,614	$1,345
Consolidated	$2,982	$3,972	$5,324	$4,424	$4,035
Non-GAAP Operating Income
Asset-Based	$91.3	$288.3	$409.6	$220.1	$185.7
Asset-Light	$26.6	$68.4	$75.0	$(15.2)	$(5.1)
Consolidated	$117.9	$356.7	$484.6	$204.9	$180.6
Non-GAAP Operating Margin
Asset-Based	4.4%	11.2%	13.6%	7.8%	6.9%
Asset-Light	3.0%	4.9%	3.0%	-0.9%	-0.4%
Consolidated	4.0%	9.0%	9.1%	4.6%	4.5%

Note: Financial data is derived from company SEC filings and investor presentations. 2024 figures may be estimated based on available quarterly data. Non-GAAP figures are used to provide a clearer view of underlying operational performance.

Sources: 24

IV. The Path to Growth: Strategic Initiatives and Opportunities

Organic Growth Drivers

In the current market, ArcBest’s primary organic growth driver is the strategic capture of market share. The 2023 demise of Yellow Corp. created a significant void in the LTL market, and ArcBest has been an active beneficiary. The 5.6% year-over-year growth in daily shipments reported in Q2 2025 is direct evidence of the company successfully onboarding new customers and absorbing freight from the former competitor.³¹ The key challenge associated with this growth is ensuring the profitability of the new freight. To that end, the company announced a 5.9% general rate increase (GRI) effective in August 2025, signaling a clear intent to improve the yield of its network over time.³¹ The ultimate success of this GRI will be heavily dependent on the broader economic environment and the pricing discipline of its competitors.

Cross-Selling & Integrated Solutions

The central pillar of ArcBest’s long-term strategy is its “integrated logistics” model. The company aims to leverage its strong, established relationships within the Asset-Based LTL customer base to cross-sell its full suite of Asset-Light services, including truckload brokerage, expedited shipping, and managed transportation.³⁰ The goal is to become a more embedded, strategic partner for shippers, thereby increasing customer retention and capturing a larger “share of wallet.” This strategy appears to be effective with its largest customers, as evidenced by a reported 99.5% retention rate among its top 50 accounts.³⁰ However, the recent divergent performance of the two segments, with LTL growing shipments while the Asset-Light segment contracts, raises questions about the effectiveness of this synergy during a market downturn.³¹

Technology & Innovation: The Vaux™ Wildcard

ArcBest has made a significant and strategic commitment to innovation, investing $175 million annually in technology and related initiatives.²³ The flagship of this effort is the Vaux™ Technology Suite, a proprietary, end-to-end system designed to transform material handling in warehouses and at the loading dock.³⁶ This suite represents a potential paradigm shift for ArcBest, moving it from a consumer of technology to a creator and potentially a seller of it.

The Vaux™ suite consists of three core, interoperable components ³⁶:

• Vaux Freight Movement System™: A patented, platform-based system that allows for the loading or unloading of an entire 53-foot trailer in under five minutes, a dramatic improvement over traditional piece-by-piece handling.
• Vaux Smart Autonomy™: A system of autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) that can automate workflows within warehouses, distribution centers, and manufacturing facilities, enabling “swarm” processing of the mobile freight platforms used by the Freight Movement System.
• Vaux Vision™: A forklift-mounted technology that uses advanced imaging and AI to capture accurate freight dimensions and images in real-time without disrupting workflows.

The Vaux™ suite has received significant external validation, having been named one of TIME Magazine’s Best Inventions of 2023 and a winner of Fast Company’s 2024 Next Big Things in Tech award.²³ This recognition underscores the innovative nature of the technology.

This initiative represents a strategic pivot for ArcBest. Vaux™ is not merely an internal tool for improving ABF’s own efficiency; it is being actively marketed as a standalone commercial product for shippers to use in their own facilities.³⁶ This positions ArcBest to enter a new business model, competing not just with other trucking companies but also with logistics technology and warehouse automation firms. The potential upside of this strategy is substantial. Successful technology companies command significantly higher valuation multiples than asset-intensive transportation companies. If Vaux™ can gain commercial traction and become a meaningful revenue stream, it could serve as a powerful catalyst for a re-rating of ArcBest’s stock.

However, this high-reward strategy comes with high risk. ArcBest has a long history as a transportation operator, not as a seller of complex hardware and software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions. The company will need to build or acquire new competencies in tech sales, implementation, and ongoing customer support. The path to significant revenue and profitability from Vaux™ is uncertain and not yet reflected in the company’s financial statements, making it a key area of execution risk for investors to monitor.

V. Capital Allocation Strategy

Capital Expenditure Strategy

ArcBest’s capital expenditure strategy is focused on maintaining a modern, efficient fleet, expanding and enhancing its network of service centers, and investing in differentiating technology. For 2025, the company has guided for capital expenditures in the range of $225 million to $275 million, with management indicating a tendency toward the lower end of that range given the soft market conditions.⁴⁶ A significant portion of this spending is dedicated to fleet renewal, including the addition of over 700 new Class 7 and 8 trucks in 2024 to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions.²¹ The company also continues to execute its Facility Enhancement and Growth Roadmap, which involves renovating existing service centers with more efficient technologies like LED lighting and expanding network capacity to improve productivity.²¹

Acquisition History: The MoLo Solutions Case Study

ArcBest has used mergers and acquisitions to accelerate its strategic transformation, most notably with the acquisition of MoLo Solutions in the fourth quarter of 2021.

• Strategic Rationale: The acquisition was a bold move to rapidly scale ArcBest’s truckload brokerage business. MoLo was a high-growth brokerage that was expected to double its revenue to approximately $600 million in 2021.³⁴ The deal, valued at $235 million in upfront cash plus a substantial performance-based earn-out, was intended to double ArcBest’s available carrier capacity to over 70,000 partners, establish it as a top 15 U.S. truckload broker, and provide access to MoLo’s strong relationships with large shippers.⁵²
• Performance and Integration Challenges: The integration of MoLo has proven to be challenging, coinciding with a severe downturn in the truckload brokerage market. The Asset-Light segment, where MoLo’s operations reside, has experienced significant revenue declines and profitability pressures since the acquisition.³¹ These challenges were compounded by internal issues, culminating in the abrupt termination of MoLo’s founder and CEO in early 2025 due to what the company described as “culture clashes”.⁵³
• Financial Outcome: The performance of the acquired business has fallen short of the aggressive targets set at the time of the deal. In its Q2 2025 financial filings, ArcBest disclosed that the contingent earn-out consideration for MoLo, which was tied to achieving ambitious Adjusted EBITDA targets from 2023 to 2025, had been written down to $0.⁴⁸ This accounting measure is a clear and significant negative indicator, signaling that management no longer expects the acquisition to meet its original financial projections. This outcome casts a shadow over management’s M&A track record and represents a potential impairment of the capital deployed.

Shareholder Returns

Despite the challenges with the MoLo acquisition, ArcBest has maintained a consistent policy of returning capital to shareholders. The company has a 23-year history of uninterrupted dividend payments, with the current quarterly dividend set at $0.12 per share.²⁰ In addition to dividends, management has been actively repurchasing shares. In the first half of 2025 alone, the company returned over $47 million to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share buybacks.³¹ As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, $14.8 million remained on its existing share repurchase authorization.⁴⁸

Table 3: Capital Allocation Summary (Annual, in millions)

Metric	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Cash Flow from Operations	$233.1	$328.6	$460.9	$262.3	$231.8
Capital Expenditures (Net)	$(94.7)	$(136.2)	$(207.7)	$(210.5)	$(160.2)
Acquisitions, Net of Cash	$0.0	$(233.2)	$0.0	$0.0	$0.0
Share Repurchases	$(1.1)	$(50.0)	$(65.0)	$(75.0)	$(41.7)
Dividends Paid	$(8.3)	$(8.5)	$(11.0)	$(12.1)	$(12.2)
Free Cash Flow (CFO – CapEx)	$138.4	$192.4	$253.2	$51.8	$71.6

Note: Data is derived from company 10-K filings. 2024 Share Repurchases and Dividends Paid may reflect LTM or partial year data. All figures in millions of U.S. dollars.

Sources: 47

VI. Recent Challenges & Industry Headwinds (2023-2025)

Freight Recession Impact

ArcBest is currently navigating a challenging operating environment defined by the prolonged freight recession. The soft market conditions have directly impacted financial results, leading to a 5% year-over-year decline in consolidated revenue in the second quarter of 2025.⁴⁶ The impact has been most acute in the Asset-Light segment, which is more exposed to the volatile spot market and saw its revenue decline by nearly 13% on a daily basis.³¹ The core Asset-Based LTL segment has been more resilient due to market share gains, but it has not been immune to the broader pressures on pricing and freight mix.³¹

Volume & Pricing Trends

The company is experiencing a bifurcated trend in volume and pricing. In the LTL segment, daily shipment volumes are growing (up 5.6% in Q2 2025) as the company absorbs freight from the defunct Yellow Corp..³¹ However, this volume growth has come at the expense of pricing, with revenue per hundredweight declining by 3.1% in the same period.³¹ This reflects a strategic trade-off to build network density and secure new customer relationships in a buyer’s market.

Cost Inflation

ArcBest continues to face significant cost pressures from multiple sources. The most prominent is labor cost inflation, driven by the new, more expensive collective bargaining agreement with the Teamsters union. Beyond labor, the company also contends with elevated costs for new equipment, parts, maintenance, and insurance, all of which compress margins in an environment where pricing power is limited.

Labor Market and Union Contract

Labor relations, particularly with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters which represents ABF Freight’s drivers and dockworkers, are a critical and defining aspect of ArcBest’s operational landscape. In July 2023, the company and the union ratified a new five-year National Master Freight Agreement, which provides labor stability through June 2028 but at a significantly higher cost.⁵⁴

The major economic provisions of the new contract include ⁵⁵:

• Wage Increases: Substantial wage increases in each year of the contract, starting with a $3.50 per hour increase in the first year.
• Health and Retirement Contributions: Increased company contributions to the Teamsters’ health, welfare, and pension plans.
• Profit-Sharing: A profit-sharing bonus for employees that is triggered when ABF Freight achieves specific annual operating ratio targets.
• Additional Paid Time Off: The addition of Martin Luther King Jr. Day as a paid holiday and two additional sick days.

This new contract solidifies ArcBest’s position as a high-cost, high-service carrier. The higher, locked-in wage and benefit structure widens the structural cost gap between ABF Freight and its primary non-union competitors like Old Dominion and Saia. This makes it imperative for ArcBest to differentiate its service offering and leverage technology to justify a premium price point, as competing on cost is not a viable long-term strategy. Furthermore, the contract reportedly includes prohibitions against the use of inward-facing cameras and driverless autonomous vehicles, which could potentially limit the company’s ability to adopt certain cost-saving or safety technologies that may become available to its non-union peers during the contract’s term.⁵⁶

Economic Uncertainty

Management has consistently highlighted the uncertain macroeconomic outlook as a primary challenge. Key concerns include persistent softness in the industrial production and housing sectors, which are major sources of LTL freight, as well as ambiguity surrounding future interest rate policy and the potential impact of international trade tariffs.⁴⁶

VII. Management Quality & Corporate Governance

Leadership Track Record and Transition

ArcBest has been led since 2010 by Chairman and CEO Judy R. McReynolds, a highly respected industry veteran with over 30 years of experience in transportation and logistics.⁵⁷ Under her leadership, ArcBest has undergone a significant strategic transformation from a traditional LTL carrier to a diversified, integrated logistics company. McReynolds has received numerous accolades for her leadership, including being inducted into the Arkansas Business Hall of Fame.⁵⁷

A pivotal leadership transition is underway. In July 2025, the company announced that McReynolds will retire from the CEO role at the end of the year, with current ArcBest President Seth Runser named as her successor.²⁰ McReynolds will remain with the company as Chairman of the Board, ensuring strategic continuity. Runser is a long-time company executive who has been deeply involved in operations, including serving as President of ABF Freight, and played a key role in the recent Teamsters contract negotiations.⁵⁴ This transition appears to be a well-planned succession. The shift from a long-tenured, strategy-focused CEO to a new CEO with a deep operational background suggests a potential evolution in the company’s focus. With the broad “integrated logistics” strategy now established, the emphasis may be shifting toward optimizing execution, improving margins, and navigating the complex industry landscape—areas where Runser has extensive experience.

Board Composition

ArcBest’s Board of Directors has also seen recent changes that enhance its industry expertise. In July 2025, the company appointed Thom Albrecht to the board.²⁰ Albrecht is a well-known and respected figure in the transportation industry, with over three decades of experience as both a Wall Street analyst and a logistics company executive.⁴⁶ His addition brings a deep, external perspective on industry trends, competitive dynamics, and financial strategy to the board’s oversight function.

Communication & Transparency

The company maintains a regular cadence of communication with the investment community through quarterly earnings releases, conference calls, investor presentations, and SEC filings.³⁰ In a significant move to enhance transparency and strategic communication, ArcBest announced it will host its first Investor Day in over a decade on September 29, 2025.²⁰ This event is expected to provide investors with a deeper insight into the company’s long-term strategic priorities, its innovation roadmap, and its financial targets.

VIII. Valuation Analysis

Current & Historical Multiples

ArcBest’s valuation reflects its position as a cyclical industrial company operating in a competitive market. As of mid-2025, the company’s stock is trading at a trailing twelve-month (TTM) Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 10-14x and a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of approximately 0.4x.³⁹

These current multiples are trading below the company’s own recent historical averages. Over the past five years, ArcBest’s average P/E ratio has been approximately 16.4x, and its average P/S ratio has been 0.5x.³⁹ This compression in valuation multiples is typical for a cyclical company during an industry downturn, as the market prices in lower near-term earnings and heightened economic uncertainty.

Peer Comparison

A comparison to its primary LTL peers reveals a significant and persistent valuation discount for ArcBest.

• P/E Ratios: ArcBest’s TTM P/E ratio of ~10-14x is substantially lower than that of Old Dominion (~28-32x), Saia (~25-29x), and XPO (~32-40x).³⁹
• Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA): This discount is also evident on an EV/EBITDA basis, a metric often preferred for capital-intensive industries as it is independent of capital structure and depreciation policy. ArcBest’s EV/EBITDA multiple is consistently less than half that of its higher-performing peers.

This valuation gap is the central issue for investors and is attributable to several structural factors that are analyzed throughout this report: ArcBest’s unionized labor force, which results in a higher structural cost base; its historically lower operating margins and returns on invested capital compared to best-in-class peers; and concerns around the execution and financial performance of its strategic initiatives, particularly the MoLo acquisition.

Table 4: Comparative Valuation Multiples (LTM)

Metric	ArcBest (ARCB)	Old Dominion (ODFL)	Saia (SAIA)	XPO, Inc. (XPO)
P/E (LTM)	~9.5x	~27.8x	~21.2x	~31.3x
Forward P/E	~12.3x	~27.8x	~28.7x	~39.9x
EV/Sales (LTM)	~0.5x	~5.4x	~2.4x	~2.2x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)	~5.5x	~19.9x	~10.9x	~14.2x
P/Book (LTM)	~1.2x	~7.1x	~2.9x	~7.9x

Note: Multiples are approximate based on latest financial data and market capitalization as of mid-2025. LTM = Last Twelve Months.

Sources: 39

Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) Considerations

Given ArcBest’s operation of two distinct business models, a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) analysis is a relevant valuation framework. This approach values each segment independently based on the multiples of its pure-play peers and then sums them to arrive at a total enterprise value.

• Asset-Based (LTL) Segment: This segment would be valued against LTL carrier multiples. Given its lower profitability and unionized structure, it would likely command a multiple at the low end of the peer group range, or at a discount to peers like Saia and XPO.
• Asset-Light Segment: This segment would be valued against freight brokerage and 3PL multiples. These multiples can vary widely based on growth and profitability, with typical EBITDA multiples ranging from 5x for smaller operators to over 7x for scalable, high-growth companies.⁶⁶ Given the segment’s recent profitability challenges, it would likely be valued at the lower end of this range.

An SOTP analysis could reveal whether the market is applying a “conglomerate discount” to ArcBest, where the combined entity is valued at less than the sum of its individual parts.

Cyclical Considerations

It is critical to recognize that valuing a cyclical business like ArcBest based on current or near-term “trough” earnings can be misleading. A more appropriate approach is to estimate the company’s “normalized” earning power over a full freight cycle. This involves assessing what the company’s profitability and earnings would be under mid-cycle economic conditions. By applying historical mid-cycle operating margins to the company’s current, larger revenue base, an investor can derive a more stable earnings figure that smooths out the peaks and troughs of the industry cycle. This normalized earnings figure can then be used as a more reliable basis for applying a valuation multiple.

IX. Risk Assessment

An investment in ArcBest Corporation is subject to a number of risks inherent to the transportation industry and specific to the company’s own operational and financial structure.

Cyclical & Macroeconomic Risks

The company’s financial performance is highly correlated with the health of the broader economy. A prolonged economic downturn, a recession in the industrial sector, or a sustained decline in consumer spending on goods would lead to lower freight volumes and increased pricing pressure, adversely impacting ArcBest’s revenue and profitability.¹

Competitive Risks

The LTL industry is intensely competitive. ArcBest faces significant competition from larger, more profitable, and non-union carriers like Old Dominion and Saia, which possess a structural cost advantage.⁶ Failure to maintain superior service levels or justify its pricing could lead to a loss of market share to these lower-cost competitors.

Operational Risks

• Labor Relations: While the 2023 agreement with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters provides labor stability for five years, future contract negotiations are a recurring and significant operational risk. A potential work stoppage during a negotiation period could be highly disruptive and costly. Furthermore, provisions within the current contract may limit the adoption of certain technologies, potentially creating a long-term competitive disadvantage.⁵⁶
• Execution Risk: The company’s strategic initiatives carry significant execution risk. The challenges encountered with the integration of MoLo Solutions highlight the difficulties of large-scale M&A.⁵³ Similarly, the commercialization of the Vaux™ technology suite is a major undertaking in a new business area for the company, and its success is not guaranteed.
• Driver and Labor Availability: Like the entire industry, ArcBest is subject to risks associated with the availability of qualified drivers and other logistics personnel, which can lead to wage inflation and capacity constraints.

Financial Risks

• Pension Obligations: ArcBest contributes to several multiemployer pension plans for its unionized employees. These plans are subject to funding volatility, and while the Butch Lewis Emergency Pension Plan Relief Act of 2021 has provided significant near-term relief to some of the most underfunded plans, the long-term health of these funds and ArcBest’s future contribution obligations remain a financial risk.⁶⁷
• Leverage and Interest Rates: The company utilizes debt to fund acquisitions and capital expenditures. While leverage is currently at a manageable level, an increase in debt or a sustained period of high interest rates would increase financing costs and reduce financial flexibility.⁴⁸

Technology & Regulatory Risks

The logistics industry is undergoing rapid technological change. ArcBest faces the risk of being outpaced by more technologically advanced competitors or new, disruptive digital brokerage platforms. On the regulatory front, the long-term transition to zero-emission vehicles will require massive capital investment and present significant operational challenges for the entire industry.¹⁸

X. Synthesis: Answering the Key Investment Questions

This analysis has deconstructed ArcBest’s competitive position, financial performance, strategic initiatives, and risks. The findings can be synthesized to address the central questions facing a potential investor.

How sustainable is ARCB’s competitive position in an increasingly consolidated industry?

ArcBest’s competitive position is moderately sustainable, anchored by the significant barriers to entry created by its dense, national LTL network. However, this position is under constant pressure. The company is structurally disadvantaged on cost relative to its primary non-union peers, which consistently generate higher margins and returns on capital. Therefore, ArcBest’s long-term sustainability is not guaranteed by its network alone; it is critically dependent on its ability to successfully execute its differentiation strategy. This means leveraging its integrated service model and, most importantly, its investments in unique technology like Vaux™, to create a value proposition that customers are willing to pay a premium for, thereby justifying its higher inherent cost structure.

What is the company’s normalized earning power through a full freight cycle?

The company’s current earnings are below its normalized potential. A normalized earnings analysis would consider the company’s larger post-pandemic revenue base and apply a mid-cycle operating margin that falls between the recent peak (9.1% in 2022) and the current trough (4.5% in 2024). This would suggest a normalized earning power significantly higher than what was reported in the last twelve months. However, this potential is contingent on the Asset-Light segment returning to sustained profitability and the Asset-Based segment defending the majority of its recent market share gains without permanently impairing its yield profile.

How effectively has management allocated capital to drive shareholder value?

Management’s capital allocation record is mixed. The company has demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns through consistent and growing dividends and opportunistic share repurchases, which is a clear positive. Organic capital expenditures have been focused on necessary fleet modernization and network enhancements. However, the 2021 acquisition of MoLo Solutions stands out as a significant blemish. The subsequent performance issues, leadership turnover, and write-down of the earn-out suggest that the substantial capital deployed in this transaction has not generated its expected return and may have been a misallocation. This places a much greater onus on the company’s large internal investment in the Vaux™ technology to succeed and generate high returns to validate the overall capital strategy.

What are the most significant catalysts for future outperformance or underperformance?

• Catalysts for Outperformance:

1. A strong freight market recovery: A cyclical upswing, particularly in the industrial economy, would provide significant operating leverage and pricing power.
2. Successful commercialization of Vaux™: Tangible evidence of revenue generation and customer adoption of the Vaux™ suite could trigger a fundamental re-rating of the company as a technology-enabled logistics provider.
3. Sustained margin improvement: Demonstrating an ability to close the operating ratio gap with peers through efficiency gains would prove the effectiveness of internal initiatives.

• Catalysts for Underperformance:

1. A prolonged or “double-dip” freight recession: This would continue to pressure margins and could challenge the profitability of newly acquired market share.
2. Failure of Vaux™ to gain commercial traction: If the technology does not translate from an award-winning concept to a profitable business line, it would represent a significant squandering of R&D investment.
3. Continued struggles in the Asset-Light segment: An inability to return the brokerage business to consistent, meaningful profitability would be a persistent drag on consolidated results.

How does the current valuation reflect the company’s intrinsic value and future prospects?

The current valuation, which represents a steep discount to LTL peers on virtually every metric, accurately reflects the market’s perception of ArcBest’s structural challenges and recent strategic missteps. The market is pricing in the higher costs and potential inflexibility of the unionized labor force, the persistent profitability gap with best-in-class competitors, and the disappointing results of the MoLo acquisition.

Therefore, an investment decision in ArcBest is fundamentally a judgment on whether management can overcome these challenges. The current valuation provides a margin of safety against the known risks. The potential for the stock’s valuation to approach its intrinsic value—which is likely higher than its current trading level—is contingent on management successfully executing its strategic plan. This requires proving that the integrated model can deliver tangible synergies, that the new LTL market share can be made profitable, and, most critically, that the significant investment in technology can create a durable competitive advantage and a new source of growth. A failure to deliver on these fronts would suggest that the current valuation discount is justified and likely to persist.

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