Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Cambi ASA, the global market leader in Thermal Hydrolysis Process (THP) technology for wastewater sludge treatment. The company’s business model, market position, financial performance, and strategic outlook are examined to provide a detailed, objective assessment for investors.

The bullish investment thesis for Cambi is anchored in its dominant technological position, fortified by a robust patent portfolio and an unparalleled global track record. The company is exceptionally well-aligned with powerful secular tailwinds, including the global push for decarbonization, the implementation of circular economy principles, and increasingly stringent environmental regulations on waste management. Each new THP system sold expands an installed base that generates a stream of high-margin, recurring service revenue, gradually de-risking the company’s financial profile. Strategic acquisitions to gain market access and geographic expansion into high-growth regions like Asia present clear and tangible avenues for future growth.

Conversely, the bearish case centers on the inherent risks of Cambi’s project-based business model. Revenue and profitability are subject to significant volatility and “lumpiness,” dictated by the timing of large, infrequent contract awards and milestone payments. This creates considerable uncertainty in financial forecasting. Potential headwinds include margin compression from rising operational and material costs, execution risks associated with delivering complex international projects, and the long-term, albeit distant, threat of disruptive alternative waste treatment technologies.

Cambi represents a pure-play investment in a critical, high-growth niche of the global cleantech infrastructure sector. The company’s commanding market share and exposure to long-term, regulation-driven demand offer a compelling growth narrative. However, this potential is counterbalanced by the significant near-term financial volatility and operational risks inherent in its business model. The central consideration for an investor is to weigh this long-term strategic positioning against the cyclicality and forecasting challenges of its project-based revenue stream.

Company Overview & Business Model

Cambi ASA is a Norway-based global technology and solutions provider specializing in the sustainable management of biosolids and organic waste. Since its inception in 1992, the company has established itself as the definitive market leader in its niche, leveraging over three decades of innovation and operational experience.¹

Core Business Segments

Cambi’s operations are strategically organized into two distinct, synergistic segments that create a self-reinforcing business cycle. This structure is designed to leverage initial technology sales into long-term, stable revenue streams.

• Technology Segment: This is the company’s primary growth engine, responsible for the sale and delivery of new, patented Thermal Hydrolysis Process (THP) systems. The segment’s activities cover the full project lifecycle, including research and development (R&D), sales and marketing, manufacturing at its facility in Congleton, UK, and project execution. This segment establishes the company’s global installed base of equipment.¹
• Solutions Segment: This segment focuses on monetizing the installed base created by the Technology segment. It provides a suite of value-added services to existing THP clients, including recurring maintenance contracts, operational support, system upgrades, and the sale of spare parts. This segment also houses the operations of Grønn Vekst, a wholly-owned Norwegian subsidiary that recycles biosolids and garden waste into high-quality, peat-free soil products, directly participating in the circular economy.¹

The interplay between these two segments is fundamental to the business model. The Technology segment secures large, one-time contracts that expand the company’s footprint. Each new installation then becomes a long-term asset that can be serviced and upgraded by the Solutions segment, generating a more predictable, high-margin, and recurring source of revenue. The growth and profitability of the Solutions segment serve as a key indicator of the long-term health and customer satisfaction of the entire business.

Technology Offerings and Value Proposition

Cambi’s core offering is its proprietary Thermal Hydrolysis Process (THP). This is an advanced pre-treatment technology that uses high pressure and temperature to break down the cellular structure of sewage sludge and other organic wastes before they enter an anaerobic digester.² This pre-treatment step dramatically improves the efficiency and output of the subsequent digestion process.

The value proposition for Cambi’s municipal and industrial customers is clear and quantifiable ²:

• Increased Biogas Production: THP can increase the yield of renewable biogas by up to 50%, often transforming a wastewater treatment plant from an energy consumer into a net energy producer.
• Reduced Biosolids Volume: The process can reduce the final volume of biosolids by up to 50%, leading to substantial savings in transportation and disposal costs.
• Enhanced Digester Capacity: Digester throughput can be increased by up to three times, allowing existing facilities to handle significantly more waste without the need for costly new construction.
• Pathogen Destruction: The process produces a sanitized, “Class A” biosolid product, which is a high-quality, safe organic fertilizer suitable for land application, meeting increasingly strict public health and environmental regulations.⁵

Revenue Model and Customer Base

The company’s revenue model is a hybrid of project-based and recurring income streams. Equipment sales from the Technology segment provide large, but infrequent, revenues recognized over the life of a project based on completion milestones. This is the primary source of the company’s financial volatility. In contrast, the Solutions segment generates more stable and predictable recurring revenues from long-term service contracts and the ongoing operations of Grønn Vekst.¹

Cambi’s customer base primarily consists of large municipal water utilities and public authorities in major urban areas worldwide. The company has a track record of delivering projects for some of the world’s leading utilities in cities such as Athens, Beijing, Honolulu, London, and Washington D.C..¹ While industrial clients are also a target market, this segment is less developed.²

Geographic Footprint

Cambi is a global company with a significant operational history. It has delivered installations in 28 countries across six continents, with a total capacity to service a population equivalent of more than 120 million people.¹ Its key markets are in Europe (notably the UK and Spain) and North America. Asia is a key growth region, with an established presence in China, South Korea, and Singapore, and a recent strategic market entry into India.²

Industry Analysis & Market Dynamics

Cambi operates within the broader waste-to-energy (WTE) and biogas markets, both of which are supported by powerful, long-term macroeconomic and regulatory trends.

Market Size and Growth Projections

The markets relevant to Cambi are substantial and projected to experience steady growth, though estimates vary between market research firms, highlighting a degree of uncertainty.

• Global Waste-to-Energy (WTE) Market: One analysis valued the market at USD 34.50 billion in 2023, forecasting growth to USD 50.92 billion by 2032, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%.¹² A separate report projected a more aggressive 8.2% CAGR, with the market growing from USD 42.12 billion in 2024 to USD 92.42 billion by 2034.¹³
• Global Biogas Market: Estimates here also vary. One source valued the market at USD 133.61 billion in 2024 with a projected 4.46% CAGR to reach USD 191.19 billion by 2032.¹⁴ Another estimated a 4.38% CAGR on a smaller base, growing from USD 68.31 billion in 2024 to USD 100.48 billion by 2033.¹⁵

Despite the variance, all projections point towards consistent, single-digit growth driven by fundamental, non-cyclical factors.

Key Market Drivers

The demand for advanced waste treatment technologies is not primarily driven by economic cycles but by a confluence of regulatory mandates and structural global shifts.

• Regulatory Environment: This is the most critical demand driver. Legally binding regulations create a non-discretionary need for municipalities to upgrade their waste treatment infrastructure. Key examples include the EU’s Circular Economy Action Plan, which promotes resource recovery; renewable energy mandates, such as the EU’s target for 32% renewable energy by 2030; and directives that strictly limit the volume of waste sent to landfills.¹² This regulatory framework provides a long-term, predictable pipeline of potential projects.
• Urbanization and Waste Generation: The world generates over 2 billion tons of municipal solid waste annually, a figure expected to increase by 70% by 2050, driven by population growth and rapid urbanization, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.¹³ This massive increase in waste overwhelms existing infrastructure, forcing cities to invest in more efficient and space-saving solutions like those offered by Cambi.¹⁸
• Circular Economy Principles: A global paradigm shift is underway, moving from a linear “take-make-dispose” economic model to a circular one where waste is redefined as a valuable resource. Cambi’s technology is a direct enabler of this transition, facilitating the recovery of both energy (in the form of biogas) and nutrients (in the form of high-quality biosolids) from wastewater streams.⁷
• Carbon Pricing: The implementation of carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes improves the economic viability of biogas projects. By placing a cost on carbon emissions, these policies make fossil fuel alternatives more expensive and financially reward the greenhouse gas reductions achieved by capturing and utilizing biogas, thereby stimulating investment in enabling technologies like THP.²¹

This heavy reliance on regulation provides a strong foundation for long-term demand visibility. However, it also exposes the industry to policy risk. A shift in government priorities, a relaxation of environmental standards, or a change in subsidies could alter the economic calculus for Cambi’s customers. A recent example is the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to remove biogas-generated electricity as a qualifying fuel for certain renewable fuel standard credits, demonstrating how quickly the policy landscape can evolve and impact project economics.²³

Regional Maturity and Technology Adoption

• Europe: As the most mature market, Europe is characterized by stringent, long-standing environmental regulations and advanced waste management infrastructure. It is the global leader in both the WTE and biogas markets, and a key region for Cambi’s operations.¹³
• North America: This is a significant and growing market, supported by state-level Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) that mandate a certain percentage of electricity come from renewable sources.²⁴ There is also an increasing federal focus on sustainable infrastructure investment.²⁵
• Asia-Pacific: This region represents the largest long-term growth opportunity. It is the fastest-growing market, driven by immense infrastructure needs in populous and rapidly urbanizing countries like China and India. Government initiatives aimed at tackling critical sanitation and pollution challenges, such as India’s “National Mission for Clean Ganga,” are creating substantial demand for advanced wastewater treatment solutions.³

Technology & Competitive Landscape

Cambi’s competitive strength is rooted in its specialized technology, extensive operational history, and a strategic move that has reshaped its market landscape.

Thermal Hydrolysis Process (THP): Advantages and Limitations

Advantages: Cambi’s THP technology offers a compelling suite of benefits that address the core challenges of sludge management. It significantly increases biogas yield, reduces the final sludge volume for disposal, enhances the capacity of existing digesters, and ensures complete pathogen destruction to produce a safe, high-quality biosolid fertilizer.² The technology is proven and robust, with a track record of reliability spanning over three decades.¹

Limitations: The primary limitations are economic and operational. The process is energy-intensive, requiring high-pressure steam, and the initial capital investment for a THP system is substantial.²⁷ This can make it a less viable option for smaller wastewater treatment facilities or municipalities with significant budget constraints. Operationally, the process can release ammonia, which must be carefully managed to avoid inhibiting the downstream anaerobic digestion process.⁶

Intellectual Property and Competitive Moat

Cambi has built a strong competitive moat based on several factors:

• Patent Portfolio: The company has developed and protected a robust portfolio of patented technologies since its founding in 1992 and continues to file new applications to protect its innovations.²
• Track Record and Reference Plants: In the conservative municipal infrastructure sector, a proven track record is paramount. Cambi’s successful installation of over 90 plants globally serves as a powerful marketing tool and a significant barrier to entry for new competitors who lack a comparable list of reference cases.¹⁰
• Operational Know-How: Over 30 years of operational data and experience provide an intangible but critical advantage in process optimization, troubleshooting, and system design that is difficult for others to replicate.

A pivotal strategic event occurred in May 2022 when Cambi acquired the competing THP technologies, Exelys® and Bio Thelys®, from the global environmental services giant Veolia.³² Prior to this, Veolia’s Exelys system, which uses a continuous-flow process, was the primary direct competitor to Cambi’s established batch-process system.⁶ This acquisition was a transformative move. It not only eliminated the main source of direct competition and price pressure in the THP niche but also consolidated both major THP process designs (batch and continuous) under Cambi’s control. This allows Cambi to offer a technology-agnostic solution tailored to customer needs, effectively neutralizing a key point of differentiation for any potential new entrant and solidifying its position as a near-monopolist in the global THP market.

Competitive Landscape

• Direct Competitors: Following the acquisition of Veolia’s THP assets, Cambi faces very limited direct competition in the thermal hydrolysis market. It holds an estimated market share of 90% outside of China.³³
• Broader Competitors and Partners: Cambi operates within a larger ecosystem of major water and waste management companies.

• Veolia and Suez: These diversified environmental services firms are among the largest in the world. They offer a comprehensive suite of solutions, including their own advanced anaerobic digestion technologies.³⁴ They function as both major customers for Cambi’s specialized technology on certain projects and as potential competitors offering alternative, integrated sludge treatment solutions.
• Xylem: Another major player in the water technology space, Xylem offers a broad range of wastewater treatment products but appears less focused on the specific niche of advanced sludge pre-treatment via thermal hydrolysis.³⁶
• Alternative Technologies: THP competes with other sludge pre-treatment methods, such as wet oxidation or mechanical disintegration (e.g., ball milling). However, academic and industry data suggest THP offers superior performance in terms of biogas enhancement.²⁹

Financial Performance & Growth History

Cambi’s financial results reflect the inherent characteristics of a project-based technology business, marked by significant year-to-year volatility in revenue and profitability, which is directly tied to the timing of large contract awards and project execution schedules. A long-term view, with a focus on the order backlog, is essential to understanding the company’s financial trajectory.

Table 1: 5-Year Financial Summary (NOK Millions)

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Profit	Gross Margin (%)	EBITDA	EBITDA Margin (%)	Order Intake	Year-End Order Backlog
2020	367.0	N/A	N/A	18.2	5.0%	584	438
2021	457.7	224.0	49.0%	28.7	6.3%	480	460
2022	440.3	221.6	50.3%	2.7	0.6%	>1,000*	1,066
2023	976.6	458.0	46.9%	249.0	25.5%	1,453	1,542
2024	1,033.0	500.2	48.4%	226.0	21.9%	724	1,232
*Sources:.2 Note: Gross Profit data for 2020 was not available in the provided materials.Order intake for 2022 was not explicitly stated as a single number but was sufficient to grow the backlog from NOK 460M to NOK 1,066M.

Revenue and Profitability Volatility

The data clearly illustrates the “lumpy” nature of Cambi’s business. Revenue remained relatively flat from 2021 to 2022 before more than doubling in 2023 as several large projects entered active execution phases.² This volatility flows directly to the bottom line, with EBITDA margin fluctuating from a low of 0.6% in 2022 to over 25% in 2023.³ This pattern demonstrates that single-year financial results are not reliable indicators of the company’s underlying health.

Order Intake and Backlog: The Key Indicators

For a business like Cambi, order intake is the most critical leading indicator of future revenue, and the order backlog represents the company’s revenue visibility. The backlog grew dramatically from NOK 460 million at the end of 2021 to a peak of NOK 1,542 million at the end of 2023, driven by record order intake.² This strong backlog is what fueled the record revenues seen in 2023 and 2024. However, order intake moderated in 2024 to NOK 724 million, a significant decrease from the prior year’s record high, leading to a corresponding decline in the year-end backlog to NOK 1,232 million as projects were executed.³ This dynamic underscores the cyclicality of contract awards.

Recurring Revenue and Working Capital

The Solutions segment provides a growing base of more stable, recurring revenue. In Q4 2024, this segment accounted for nearly half of the quarterly order intake, highlighting its increasing contribution to financial stability.⁴² Operationally, the business is working-capital intensive. Cash flow is highly dependent on the timing of milestone payments from customers, which can lead to significant negative operating cash flow in quarters with high project activity but few payment triggers.⁴³ The company’s strong, debt-free balance sheet is a critical asset that provides the necessary liquidity to manage these swings.¹¹

Recent Performance & Major Changes (2022-2024)

The period from 2022 through mid-2025 has been characterized by strong revenue conversion from a peak backlog, strategic repositioning, and navigation of macroeconomic headwinds.

Recent Financial Performance (H1 2025)

The first half of 2025 has presented a mixed financial picture.

• Q1 2025: Revenue showed modest growth of 4.2% year-over-year to NOK 225 million. However, EBITDA declined sharply to NOK 14 million from NOK 36 million in Q1 2024. Management attributed this profitability pressure to negative foreign exchange effects from a stronger Norwegian krone and deliberate investments to expand organizational capabilities for future growth.¹¹
• Q2 2025: The company reported a significant sequential recovery, posting record quarterly revenue of NOK 342 million. Despite this top-line strength, EBITDA still declined 8.5% year-over-year to NOK 75 million, indicating that margin pressures persist. A key point of concern was the continued decline in the order backlog, which fell to NOK 938 million from NOK 1,484 million a year prior.⁴⁷

Order Backlog and Future Visibility

The order backlog has been a central theme. After peaking at over NOK 1.7 billion in 2023, it has been consumed by the record revenue activity of the past 18 months.⁴³ The current backlog provides revenue visibility through 2025 and into 2026. However, reflecting the lower order intake of 2024, management has transparently communicated to investors that the current backlog suggests a potential dip in revenue in 2026, underscoring the need to secure new large contracts to refill the pipeline.¹¹ This is not an indication of a fundamental business problem but rather a predictable phase in the project-based business cycle.

Macroeconomic and Strategic Shifts

• Macro Environment: The company was impacted by supply chain disruptions and higher material costs in 2022.⁴⁸ More recently, it has had to adapt to new trade barriers, such as a 10% tariff resulting from the US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal. In response, management is actively exploring options for establishing local manufacturing in the U.S. to mitigate future tariff impacts.³
• Strategic Acquisition: A key development in Q2 2025 was the acquisition of a 51% stake in CNP CYCLES GmbH, a German company specializing in technologies that optimize sewage sludge treatment. This move expands Cambi’s technology portfolio and, more importantly, provides a strategic foothold to strengthen its market presence in the large and important German market.⁴⁷
• Organizational Refocus: In 2023, Cambi streamlined its strategy by deprioritizing capital-intensive Design-Build-Finance-Operate (DBFO) projects to concentrate on its core strengths in technology and solutions.² In line with this focus on core profitability, the company is also exiting the retail soil business within its Grønn Vekst subsidiary to concentrate on the more stable bulk soil operations.³

Growth Strategy & Market Opportunities

Cambi’s growth strategy has evolved from purely organic, technology-led sales to a more sophisticated, multi-faceted approach combining geographic expansion, targeted M&A, and the cultivation of its recurring revenue base.

Geographic Expansion

Expanding its global footprint is a primary pillar of Cambi’s growth strategy.

• India: The company has identified India as a key emerging market with immense long-term potential, driven by its massive population, rapid urbanization, and a strong government focus on sanitation and environmental projects like the “National Mission for Clean Ganga”.³ Securing its first THP project in Mumbai in early 2025 was a critical strategic milestone, though management acknowledges that penetrating this market is a “complex long-term journey” requiring a sustained presence.³
• Germany: The recent acquisition of a majority stake in CNP CYCLES signals a clear strategic intent to penetrate the German market. This move is not primarily about acquiring technology but about gaining market access, local expertise, and customer relationships in a key European region with significant infrastructure investment planned, including a €500 billion fund with allocations for climate and energy projects.⁴⁷
• Global Outreach: The company is broadly increasing its sales and marketing efforts, onboarding new agents and managers in selected priority markets to ensure its THP solutions are considered for all major municipal sludge treatment projects globally.¹

Technology, Services, and Acquisitions

• Technology Development: Cambi is committed to continuous innovation to maintain its leadership position, focusing on incremental improvements, developing new system configurations, and refining its core THP solutions.¹
• Service Business Expansion: A core strategic priority is to grow the high-margin, recurring revenue from the Solutions segment. This involves proactively supporting the growing installed base with value-adding services, performance-enhancing upgrades, and end-of-life replacements.¹ A recent long-term service agreement in Denmark exemplifies this focus.⁴⁶
• Adjacent Markets: While municipal wastewater remains the core focus, Cambi is pursuing opportunities in adjacent markets. It has secured contracts for treating industrial sludge and continues to view this as a growth area.² The application of its technology to agricultural waste appears to be at an earlier, more exploratory stage.⁸
• Acquisition Strategy: The company has stated its intent to actively explore strategic acquisitions of complementary businesses or technologies, a strategy clearly demonstrated by the CNP CYCLES transaction.¹

Capital Allocation & Financial Strategy

Cambi’s financial strategy is characterized by a conservative capital structure, prudent management of working capital, and a shareholder-friendly dividend policy.

Capital Structure and Liquidity

Cambi maintains a robust, debt-free balance sheet, with no non-current liabilities reported in recent periods.¹¹ This provides significant financial flexibility and is a critical strength for a company with a project-based business model. The absence of debt allows the company to weather the inherent volatility in its cash flows and provides the capacity to fund working capital needs during intensive project execution phases without relying on external financing.

Working Capital Management

Effective management of working capital is paramount. The business is inherently cyclical, with cash flow heavily dependent on the timing of large milestone payments from customers. As seen in recent quarters, periods of high activity can lead to negative operating cash flow if payments are delayed or fall into a subsequent period.¹¹ The company’s strong cash position serves as a crucial buffer to manage these timing mismatches.

Dividend Policy

Cambi has implemented a notably shareholder-friendly dividend policy.

• The company paid a dividend of NOK 1.00 per share for the 2023 financial year, totaling NOK 160 million, its highest annual payout ever.³
• It has announced a plan to pay out approximately 80% of its net profit for the 2024 financial year.³
• An ordinary dividend of NOK 0.30 per share was approved in May 2025, and the board has authorized potential additional dividends.¹¹

This commitment to a high payout ratio is a significant strategic choice. For a company operating in a high-growth industry and subject to considerable cash flow volatility, such a policy signals strong management confidence in future earnings and cash generation. However, it could also be viewed as a potential constraint on financial flexibility, potentially limiting the capacity for larger, transformative acquisitions or requiring the company to seek external capital if a prolonged downturn in orders were to occur.

Investment Priorities

Capital is primarily allocated to R&D to maintain technology leadership through “incremental product and process improvements”.¹ Capital expenditure on fixed assets appears relatively low, reflecting an asset-light model where the primary assets are intangible (intellectual property and operational know-how).

Business Model & Operational Considerations

Beyond financial metrics, several operational factors are critical to understanding Cambi’s performance and risk profile.

Project Execution

The ability to deliver large, complex infrastructure projects on schedule and within budget is a core operational challenge. Cambi promotes its “strong project delivery” capabilities as a key competitive advantage.³⁰ However, the company is not immune to execution risk. Recent financial reports have noted that some projects have been affected by temporary delays due to client site readiness issues, which defers revenue recognition.⁴⁶ Furthermore, the company has acknowledged higher-than-expected complexity in certain upgrade projects for older systems, committing to dedicate more experienced engineering resources to avoid such issues in the future.³

Revenue Mix and Predictability

A key long-term strategic goal is to shift the revenue mix towards a higher proportion of recurring revenue from the Solutions segment. This is intended to smooth the earnings volatility created by the one-time, project-based revenue from the Technology segment.¹ The growth of this service and consumables business is a critical metric for assessing the long-term stability of the company.

Supply Chain and Manufacturing

Cambi operates a centralized manufacturing model, producing its core THP systems at a facility in Congleton, UK.² This approach provides significant benefits in terms of quality control and specialized expertise. However, it also creates dependencies on a single facility and exposes the company to supply chain risks and international trade barriers. As noted, the recent implementation of a 10% tariff between the U.S. and the UK has prompted the company to evaluate local manufacturing options in key markets as a potential long-term risk mitigation strategy.³

Seasonality

The company’s business is subject to some seasonality, primarily within the Grønn Vekst subsidiary. The soil business typically experiences lower activity during the winter months (Q1 and Q4), which can impact the quarterly results of the Solutions segment.¹¹

Risk Factors & Potential Headwinds

An investment in Cambi involves exposure to several risks inherent in its business model and the markets it serves.

• Project-Based Revenue Concentration: This is the most significant risk factor. The company’s financial performance is highly dependent on securing and executing a small number of large-scale projects. This leads to lumpy and unpredictable revenue, profitability, and cash flow. The decline in the order backlog from its 2023 peak is a tangible manifestation of this risk, as the company must continuously win new large contracts to sustain its growth trajectory.⁴³
• Regulatory Changes: Cambi’s business is fundamentally reliant on a supportive regulatory environment that mandates advanced waste treatment. Any significant change in policy—such as the relaxation of landfill restrictions, a reduction in renewable energy subsidies, or a shift in focus to other technologies—could materially impact demand for its products. The growing concern over “forever chemicals” like PFAS, while potentially a long-term driver for advanced treatment, currently creates regulatory uncertainty in the water sector.⁴⁷
• Execution Risks on Large-Scale Projects: Large infrastructure projects are inherently complex and subject to risks of delays, cost overruns, and unforeseen technical challenges. Such issues can negatively impact project profitability and the company’s reputation.⁴²
• Municipal Budget Constraints: As the primary customer base consists of public municipalities and utilities, projects are subject to public funding cycles and political priorities. Economic downturns or shifts in government spending could lead to the delay or cancellation of planned infrastructure investments.
• Foreign Exchange Exposure: The company has a significant mismatch in the currencies of its revenues and costs. The order backlog is denominated in multiple currencies, including NOK, EUR, and USD, while a large portion of its operational and manufacturing costs are in NOK and GBP. Fluctuations in exchange rates can therefore have a material impact on reported revenues and margins, as was explicitly cited as a headwind in the Q1 2025 results.⁴
• Technology Obsolescence: While Cambi is the current market leader in THP, it faces the long-term risk that a new, more cost-effective, or more efficient waste treatment technology could emerge and disrupt its market position.
• Talent Retention: As a provider of highly specialized engineering technology and services, the ability to attract and retain key technical and project management personnel is critical to maintaining its competitive edge and ensuring successful project execution.

Industry-Specific Factors

Cambi’s success is deeply intertwined with several specific trends and policies within the global waste, water, and energy sectors.

Policy and Subsidy Frameworks

The economic viability of many of Cambi’s projects is enhanced by government policies that support waste-to-energy and renewable energy generation. These can include direct subsidies, feed-in tariffs that guarantee a price for renewable electricity, or mandates for renewable fuel blending. The strength and stability of these policy frameworks in key markets are critical for investment decisions by Cambi’s clients.

Circular Economy Regulations

The global shift towards a circular economy is a powerful, long-term catalyst for Cambi. Regulations like the EU’s Circular Economy Action Plan are moving beyond simple waste disposal to mandate resource recovery.¹⁶ This creates a structural demand for technologies that can extract value—such as energy and fertilizer—from waste streams, which is the core function of Cambi’s THP systems.

Competition from Alternative Waste Treatment

THP-enhanced anaerobic digestion is one of several methods for managing sludge and organic waste. It competes with other technologies such as incineration, pyrolysis, and gasification.²⁷ The choice of technology for a given municipality depends on a variety of local factors, including the specific composition of the waste stream, local energy prices, land availability, capital costs, and the regulatory framework for end-product disposal (e.g., ash from incineration vs. biosolids for land application).

Energy Price Volatility

The business case for installing a THP system is directly impacted by local energy prices. Higher prices for electricity and natural gas make the incremental biogas produced through THP more valuable. This increases the potential revenue or cost savings for the wastewater treatment plant, shortens the payback period for the investment, and strengthens the overall project economics. Conversely, a sustained period of low energy prices could weaken the financial incentive for some potential customers.

Valuation Analysis

Valuing a project-based technology company like Cambi requires looking beyond standard trailing multiples and placing a heavy emphasis on the forward-looking order backlog. The company’s valuation reflects a premium for its market leadership and growth prospects, balanced against the market’s discount for its inherent earnings volatility.

Table 2: Peer Group Valuation Multiples

Company	Ticker	Country	Market Cap (USD)	EV/Sales (TTM)	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	P/E (TTM)
Cambi ASA	CAMBI.OL	Norway	$330M	3.24x	16.63x	26.19x
Veolia Environnement S.A.	VIE.PA	France	$23.3B*	1.1x*	6.5x*	15.5x*
Xylem Inc.	XYL	USA	$33.9B*	4.3x*	22.1x*	40.1x*
GFL Environmental Inc.	GFL	Canada	$17.4B	3.6x	13.9x	102.4x
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.	CWST	USA	$5.7B*	4.1x*	20.9x*	55.6x*
Sources:.45 Peer data is sourced from various financial data providers and is approximate as of mid-2025. Veolia, Xylem, GFL, and Casella market caps and multiples are indicative based on publicly available data and are included for comparative context.54

Current Trading Multiples

As of August 2025, Cambi trades at an EV/Sales ratio of approximately 3.2x and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 16.6x.⁴⁵ These multiples are elevated compared to the company’s own 3-year median EV/Sales of 2.1x, suggesting that the market is pricing in continued growth and profitability following the strong performance in 2023-2024.⁵⁶ The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of ~26x is moderately high but can be misleading given the significant fluctuations in net income from year to year.

Peer Group Comparison

Compared to large, diversified environmental service giants like Veolia, Cambi trades at a significant premium on EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples. This premium reflects Cambi’s status as a high-growth, pure-play technology leader in a specialized niche, whereas larger peers have more mature and slower-growing business lines. Compared to other North American waste and water technology firms like GFL Environmental and Casella Waste Systems, Cambi’s EV/Sales multiple is in a similar range, though its EV/EBITDA multiple is more moderate.

Key Valuation Considerations

• Backlog is Paramount: Standard trailing-twelve-month (TTM) multiples are of limited use for Cambi. The most critical component of its valuation is the size, quality, and expected margin of its order backlog. The backlog provides the only tangible visibility into future revenues and earnings. A valuation approach that risk-adjusts the future earnings from the current backlog would be more appropriate than relying on historical performance.
• Sum-of-the-Parts: A conceptual way to value Cambi is to consider a sum-of-the-parts analysis. The recurring, high-margin revenue stream from the Solutions segment could be assigned a higher, more stable valuation multiple (akin to a SaaS or service business), while the more volatile, project-based Technology segment would warrant a lower, cyclical-industrial multiple. The combined value would reflect the company’s hybrid nature.
• Growth Premium vs. Volatility Discount: The central tension in Cambi’s valuation is the trade-off between its premium characteristics (market dominance, high-growth niche) and its risk factors (earnings volatility, project concentration). The market’s willingness to pay a premium multiple depends on its confidence in the company’s ability to continue winning large projects and refilling its backlog over the long term.

Norwegian Market & Listing Considerations

Cambi’s listing on the Oslo Børs introduces specific factors that investors should consider.

Oslo Børs Market Dynamics

Cambi is listed on the Euronext Growth Oslo, a marketplace designed for small and medium-sized growth companies, which operates under a slightly less extensive regulatory framework than the main Oslo Børs.¹

• Liquidity: As a smaller-capitalization stock on this market, CAMBI can experience lower trading liquidity. Its average 20-day trading volume is relatively modest at approximately 60,000 shares.⁴⁵ Lower liquidity can result in wider bid-ask spreads and potentially higher price volatility compared to more heavily traded stocks on the main index.
• Market Environment: The broader Norwegian market, as measured by the Oslo Børs Benchmark Index (OSEBX), has been in a positive rising trend, indicating generally favorable investor sentiment in the region.⁵⁸

Institutional Investor Base

The Norwegian institutional investor landscape, including the Government Pension Fund Global (Norway’s sovereign wealth fund), has a strong and growing focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria and sustainable investments. This could be a positive factor for a cleantech company like Cambi. However, investors should be aware that major Norwegian institutions have demonstrated a willingness to divest from companies or regions based on non-financial, ethical, or political considerations, which can introduce an additional layer of risk.⁵⁹

Currency Exposure (NOK)

As a Norwegian company reporting its financials in Norwegian Kroner (NOK), Cambi presents two layers of currency risk for international investors.

• Investment Risk: The value of an investment in CAMBI shares, when translated back into a foreign currency like USD or EUR, will fluctuate with the NOK exchange rate.
• Operational Risk: The company itself has significant transactional and translational currency exposure. A substantial portion of its revenue is in foreign currencies (EUR, USD), while its cost base is heavily weighted towards NOK and GBP. A strengthening of the NOK against these currencies can negatively impact reported revenues and profit margins, as was the case in Q1 2025.⁴⁴

Analyst Coverage

The company has analyst coverage from at least two Nordic brokerage houses, DNB and Pareto Securities.¹ This provides a degree of institutional research and helps facilitate investor communication, though coverage is not as broad as for larger-cap companies.

Works cited

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