
Executive Summary
This report provides a comprehensive investment analysis of Corporación América Airports S.A. (NYSE: CAAP), one of the world’s largest private airport operators by number of airports. The company presents a multifaceted investment profile, characterized by its portfolio of long-term, inflation-protected infrastructure assets with high barriers to entry, juxtaposed with significant exposure to the macroeconomic and political volatility of its primary market, Argentina.
CAAP operates a geographically diverse portfolio of 52 airports across six countries, with a business model that derives revenue from both regulated aeronautical fees and higher-margin commercial activities.1 The company has demonstrated a robust recovery from the pandemic-era downturn, serving 79.0 million passengers in 2024, equivalent to 93.8% of 2019 traffic levels when excluding the terminated Natal concession.3 Financially, CAAP maintains a strong and conservative balance sheet, evidenced by a low Net Debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.1x as of March 2025, which provides substantial flexibility to fund its growth initiatives.5
The forward-looking thesis for CAAP is anchored on several pillars. Organically, the company is positioned to benefit from secular growth in Latin American air travel, driven by an expanding middle class and the proliferation of low-cost carriers.6 Strategically, CAAP is pursuing transformative, multi-hundred-million-dollar capital expenditure programs to significantly expand its airports in Florence, Italy, and Yerevan, Armenia.8 Successful execution of these projects would not only create a step-change in cash flow generation but also materially rebalance the company’s risk profile away from Argentina.
However, the investment case is inextricably linked to the outlook for Argentina, which represents the majority of the company’s earnings. The nation’s profound economic challenges, including a history of hyperinflation, currency devaluation, and political instability, represent the most significant risks.9 The current administration’s “shock therapy” economic reforms present a binary outcome for investors. Success could unlock substantial value through operational leverage and a potential re-rating of the company’s valuation, which currently trades at a notable discount to its more stable Latin American peers. Conversely, failure could lead to further economic crisis, potentially impairing the company’s financial performance and limiting its ability to repatriate cash.
This analysis concludes that an investment in CAAP is a leveraged play on the long-term economic trajectory of Argentina, coupled with a call option on the successful execution of its major European growth projects. The company’s experienced management team and strong balance sheet provide critical buffers against the inherent risks, but the outsized influence of its core market will remain the dominant factor in its risk-reward profile.
Company Profile & Strategic Positioning
Corporación América Airports S.A. stands as a formidable player in the global infrastructure landscape, distinguished by its scale and the unique characteristics of its airport portfolio. The company’s strategic position is defined by its concession-based business model, the geographic and regulatory diversity of its assets, and its deep-seated expertise in navigating complex political environments.
Business Model: A Diversified Concession Operator
CAAP’s fundamental business is acquiring, developing, and operating airport concessions under long-term agreements with government entities.11 This model grants the company a quasi-monopolistic position within its designated service areas, creating a powerful economic moat characterized by exceptionally high barriers to entry. As of 2024, the company’s portfolio comprised 52 airports across six countries in Latin America and Europe.1
The company’s revenue structure is strategically bifurcated, balancing regulated stability with commercial growth potential:
- Aeronautical Revenues: This stream consists of fees charged for the use of essential airport infrastructure and is typically regulated by government authorities. Key components include passenger usage fees (departure and transit), aircraft landing fees, and aircraft parking fees. This revenue is directly tied to passenger and aircraft movement volumes. In the first quarter of 2025, aeronautical revenues demonstrated solid growth of 6.8% year-over-year.5 Notably, in the fourth quarter of 2024, these revenues grew 1.7% even as overall traffic declined, pointing to the positive effects of tariff adjustments and a favorable shift in passenger mix towards higher-fee international travel.12
- Non-Aeronautical (Commercial) Revenues: This segment captures a wide array of higher-margin activities and is a key focus for value creation. It includes revenues from duty-free and retail stores, food and beverage outlets, car parking, VIP lounges, advertising, and the development of ancillary real estate such as cargo and logistics facilities.11 This revenue stream is more closely linked to passenger spending habits and the company’s effectiveness as a commercial manager. In Q1 2025, commercial revenues grew 6.1%.5
The long-term nature of the concession agreements is a cornerstone of the business model, providing a durable and predictable framework for operations and investment. This durability is not merely a static feature but an actively managed one. The company has a demonstrated track record of successfully negotiating extensions for its key assets, such as the 10-year extension of its cornerstone Argentine concession to 2038 and the 20-year extension of its Montevideo concession in Uruguay to 2053.8 These extensions lock in future cash flows and provide the certainty required to undertake long-term capital improvement projects. This model is both a profound strength and a significant vulnerability. The long-term, often inflation-indexed nature of the contracts provides a stable, defensible cash flow stream characteristic of high-quality infrastructure. However, these agreements are with sovereign governments, making the company’s fortunes intrinsically dependent on the political stability and fiscal discipline of its host nations. This creates a concentrated political risk that operational excellence alone cannot fully mitigate.
The Airport Portfolio: A Geographically Diverse Asset Base
CAAP’s portfolio is a study in contrasts, spanning developed European markets and high-growth, high-volatility emerging economies. The company’s strategic footprint includes operations in Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Ecuador, Armenia, and Italy.1 This geographic spread, however, does not translate into a traditionally diversified risk profile. The company’s operations are heavily weighted towards Argentina, which operates 35 of its airports and contributes the majority of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).15 Consequently, the company’s consolidated results are disproportionately influenced by the economic and political dynamics within Argentina.
The European assets, particularly the airports in Florence and Pisa, Italy, serve as an important counterweight. They operate in a more stable, mature market and provide a different risk-return profile, acting as a partial hedge against the volatility inherent in the Latin American operations. The company has made strategic portfolio adjustments, such as the 2021 divestment of its stake in five Peruvian airports, to concentrate resources on what it deems core assets with more significant long-term growth opportunities.16
The portfolio’s passenger traffic has shown a strong recovery since the pandemic. After serving 81.1 million passengers in 2023, traffic moderated slightly to 79.0 million in 2024.2 This decline was almost entirely attributable to the friendly termination of the Natal airport concession in Brazil; excluding Natal, traffic was down only 0.4% year-over-year, indicating stable underlying performance across the remaining portfolio.3
Navigating Complex Regulatory Frameworks
A sophisticated understanding of CAAP requires an appreciation of the varied regulatory regimes under which it operates, as these directly dictate its revenue potential and return on investment. The company has proven adept at operating across three distinct models 8:
- Single Till (68% of 2024 Revenue): This model, prevalent in Argentina and Armenia, regulates the airport as a single entity. The framework is designed to allow the operator to achieve a target Internal Rate of Return (IRR) on its investment over the life of the concession. This is a crucial feature, as it provides a contractual mechanism to renegotiate tariffs or other terms if macroeconomic shocks, such as a major currency devaluation, threaten the economic equilibrium of the concession.
- Inflation-Based (24% of 2024 Revenue): Employed in Brazil, Uruguay, and Ecuador, this model allows for the annual adjustment of tariffs based on a domestic inflation index or a parametric formula. This provides a direct and powerful hedge against inflation, a particularly valuable feature in its Latin American markets.
- Dual Till / Regulated WACC (8% of 2024 Revenue): This conventional utility-style regulation is used in Italy. Aeronautical charges are determined periodically based on a regulated asset base and an allowed Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). This provides a predictable, albeit less flexible, earnings stream.
The company’s ability to not only operate within these disparate frameworks but also to successfully negotiate favorable terms and extensions underscores the deep institutional knowledge and strong government relationships it has cultivated over decades.11
Table 1: CAAP Airport Portfolio & Concession Summary
Country | Key Airports | 2024 Passenger Traffic (Millions) | % of Total CAAP Traffic (2024) | Concession Expiry Date | Regulatory Regime |
Argentina | Ezeiza (EZE), Aeroparque (AEP) | 40.5 | 51.3% | 2038 | Single Till |
Italy | Florence (FLR), Pisa (PSA) | 9.0 | 11.4% | 2046 | Dual Till / Regulated WACC |
Brazil | Brasilia (BSB) | 14.8 | 18.7% | 2037 | Inflation-Based |
Uruguay | Montevideo (MVD) | 2.1 | 2.7% | 2053 | Inflation-Based |
Armenia | Zvartnots (EVN) | 3.9 | 4.9% | 2032 | Single Till |
Ecuador | Guayaquil (GYE) | 4.5 | 5.7% | 2029 | Inflation-Based |
Note: Passenger traffic figures are based on company reports and may be subject to rounding. Percentage of total traffic is calculated based on the 79.0 million total passengers served in 2024. Concession expiry dates are based on latest company presentations and filings. |
Latin American Aviation: Industry Landscape & Competitive Dynamics
Corporación América Airports operates within the dynamic and burgeoning Latin American aviation market. The industry’s structure, growth trajectory, and competitive forces provide the fundamental tailwinds and potential headwinds that will shape CAAP’s long-term performance.
Market Structure and Post-Pandemic Trajectory
The Latin American aviation market is in a phase of robust expansion. Valued at approximately $38.6 billion in 2024, the market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4%, reaching an estimated $59.3 billion by 2034.6 This growth is underpinned by powerful secular trends, including the expansion of a regional middle class with greater disposable income for travel, significant government and private sector investment in airport modernization and tourism promotion, and improved air connectivity.7
A pivotal driver of this growth is the proliferation of Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) such as Viva Air, JetSmart, and Volaris. These airlines have fundamentally altered the market landscape by making air travel more affordable and accessible to a broader segment of the population, thereby stimulating demand and increasing competition.6
The post-pandemic recovery in the region has been strong and sustained. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that international passenger demand for Latin American airlines surged by 8.8% year-over-year in May 2025, with capacity increasing by 11.0%.20 Earlier in the year, regional traffic in January 2025 was already 2.4% ahead of the prior year, signaling continued positive momentum.21 This backdrop of secular and cyclical growth provides a favorable operating environment for airport operators like CAAP.
Competitive Moat and Barriers to Entry
The airport operation business is characterized by one of the most formidable competitive moats in any industry. Airports are natural monopolies, and the barriers to entry are exceptionally high, stemming from several factors:
- Capital Intensity: The cost of acquiring land and constructing runways, terminals, and associated infrastructure runs into the billions of dollars.
- Regulatory Hurdles: Gaining the necessary permits, environmental clearances, and political approvals to build a new airport is a multi-decade endeavor, if not an impossible one in many urban areas.
- Concession Exclusivity: CAAP’s business model is predicated on long-term, exclusive concession agreements granted by governments. These contracts legally preclude the emergence of a direct competitor operating another major airport in the same city or region for the duration of the term.
CAAP reinforces this structural moat with significant intangible assets, most notably its deep, long-standing relationships with governments and regulatory bodies across its jurisdictions. This experience, cultivated since its first major concession in 1998, is critical for navigating the complexities of contract negotiation, renewal, and regulatory compliance, and represents a competitive advantage that new entrants would find difficult to replicate.11
Pricing Power and Airline Industry Influence
An airport operator’s ability to raise prices is not determined by market forces but is instead strictly defined by its concession agreement. As detailed previously, CAAP’s pricing power varies by jurisdiction. In its inflation-based regimes like Brazil and Uruguay, it has a direct, contractually defined ability to pass on inflation to airlines and passengers.8 In its single-till regimes like Argentina, its power is indirect but potent; it has the right to seek tariff adjustments to ensure it achieves its target IRR, providing a powerful mechanism to protect the economic value of its investment from macroeconomic shocks.8
The competitive landscape for airlines in Latin America has been marked by consolidation, which has concentrated market share among fewer, larger airline groups.22 While this could theoretically increase the bargaining power of airlines, the essential nature of CAAP’s hub airports—such as Ezeiza in Buenos Aires or Brasilia—means the company retains significant leverage. An airline cannot effectively serve a country without access to its primary gateways. CAAP further mitigates this risk by maintaining a diversified portfolio of airline clients, with a growing exposure to the rapidly expanding LCC segment, ensuring it is not overly reliant on any single partner.8
The rise of LCCs presents a nuanced dynamic for airport operators. On one hand, LCCs are a powerful engine for passenger volume growth, which directly increases aeronautical revenue from passenger and landing fees. This is an unambiguous positive for CAAP. On the other hand, the business model of LCCs is built on cost-efficiency, and their typical passenger is more price-sensitive. This can create a headwind for the growth of high-margin non-aeronautical revenues. LCC passengers may spend less per capita in duty-free shops, upscale restaurants, and VIP lounges compared to traditional full-service or business class travelers. Therefore, while overall traffic grows, the growth in revenue per passenger may be more modest. This presents a strategic challenge for CAAP: to adapt its commercial offerings to effectively monetize this growing but more frugal passenger segment.
Financial & Operational Performance Analysis
A thorough examination of Corporación América Airports’ financial and operational history reveals a company navigating a complex environment with resilience. The analysis must look beyond headline figures to account for significant one-off events and the distorting effects of hyperinflationary accounting in its largest market, Argentina.
Historical Financial Deep-Dive (2021-2025)
CAAP’s financial trajectory over the past several years tells a story of a strong recovery from the depths of the pandemic, albeit one complicated by external factors. Total revenues surged from $707 million in 2021 to $1.84 billion in 2024, reflecting the sharp rebound in air travel.23 This top-line growth translated directly to the bottom line, with net income swinging from a loss of $181 million in 2021 to a profit of $308 million in 2024.23
However, interpreting these consolidated U.S. dollar figures requires careful adjustment. The application of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) rule IAS 29 for hyperinflationary economies materially impacts the reported results from Argentina. This accounting treatment often masks the true underlying performance. For instance, in the first quarter of 2025, CAAP reported that consolidated revenues (ex-IFRIC12) grew by 6.4%. Yet, when excluding the effects of IAS 29, the underlying growth was a much stronger 11.5%.5 This discrepancy highlights that the reported USD figures can understate the real-terms growth of the business in its local operating currency. Investors must focus on the ex-IAS 29 figures provided by the company to gain a clearer understanding of operational trends.
Profitability, as measured by Adjusted EBITDA, has also recovered but shows signs of margin pressure. In Q1 2025, the Adjusted EBITDA margin (ex-IFRIC12) was 37.3%, a contraction from 41.7% in the prior-year quarter. Management attributed this to inflationary pressures in Argentina, where peso-denominated cost increases outpaced the rate of currency depreciation, as well as adverse foreign exchange translation effects in Brazil and Italy.5 Furthermore, the company’s Q4 2023 Adjusted EBITDA was significantly inflated by a one-time gross indemnification payment of R$610.4 million (approximately $166.5 million) related to the termination of the Natal airport concession in Brazil, an event that must be excluded for any meaningful year-over-year comparison.24
Table 2: Historical Financial Summary (2021-2024 & Q1 2025)
Metric (in millions USD, except where noted) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Q1 2025 |
Total Revenue | $706.9 | $1,378.7 | $1,400.0 | $1,843.3 | $416.9 (ex-IFRIC12) |
Revenue ex-IAS 29 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $413.9 |
Aeronautical Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $236.7 |
Commercial Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $211.1 |
Adjusted EBITDA | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $155.6 (ex-IFRIC12) |
Adjusted EBITDA ex-IAS 29 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $157.9 |
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 37.3% |
Net Income | ($181.0) | $165.6 | $226.5 | $307.9 | $40.8 |
Total Passengers (millions) | 35.7 | 65.6 | 81.1 | 79.0 | 20.4 |
Revenue per Passenger ($) | $19.80 | $21.02 | $17.26 | $23.33 | $20.44 |
Source: Company financial reports.5 Revenue and EBITDA for Q1 2025 are presented ex-IFRIC12 as per company reporting. Revenue per passenger is calculated as Total Revenue divided by Total Passengers. Historical breakdowns of Aeronautical/Commercial revenue and Adjusted EBITDA were not consistently available in the provided materials for all years. |
Capital Allocation and Balance Sheet Strategy
A key pillar of the investment case for CAAP is its robust balance sheet and conservative approach to leverage. For an infrastructure company operating in volatile emerging markets, a strong financial position is not just a defensive attribute but a critical source of strategic flexibility. As of March 31, 2025, the company reported a strong liquidity position with $448.6 million in cash and cash equivalents.5
Most importantly, its leverage is low. Net debt stood at $718 million at the end of Q4 2024, and the ratio of Net Debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA was a very manageable 1.1x, a level that provides a significant buffer against macroeconomic shocks and enables future growth.5 This financial strength is what allows the company to confidently pursue its ambitious capital expenditure plans, including the $425 million program in Armenia and the €497 million project in Italy, without unduly stressing its balance sheet or resorting to dilutive equity financing.8 It also provides a competitive advantage when bidding for new concessions, as it demonstrates financial credibility to government partners.
Regarding shareholder returns, the company’s current focus is on reinvesting capital for growth. It does not presently pay a dividend, prioritizing the funding of its expansion projects and the prudent management of its balance sheet.26
Operational Efficiency and Key Performance Indicators
Beyond the headline financials, key operational metrics illustrate the company’s ability to monetize its assets. A critical indicator is revenue per passenger, which reflects the effectiveness of both aeronautical tariff schemes and commercial revenue initiatives. This metric improved to $19.3 in 2024 from $19.2 in 2023 and reached a post-IPO high (in a normalized environment) of $20.6 in the first quarter of 2024, demonstrating successful execution in its commercial strategy.12
Cargo operations are emerging as another important growth vector. Cargo volumes have shown strong growth, increasing 16% year-over-year in Q4 2024 and 9.1% in Q1 2025, contributing positively to revenue diversification.5
The complexity of CAAP’s financial statements is a noteworthy factor. An investor cannot simply extrapolate consolidated USD figures. A credible analysis requires a granular approach, adjusting for the impacts of IAS 29, stripping out one-off events like the Natal indemnification, and modeling the effects of foreign exchange translations from multiple operating currencies. This complexity can obscure the company’s true underlying performance and may deter some investors, potentially contributing to its valuation discount.
Growth Strategy & Value Creation Catalysts
Corporación América Airports has articulated a multi-pronged growth strategy focused on capitalizing on organic tailwinds, executing transformative capital projects, and selectively pursuing inorganic expansion. These initiatives represent the primary catalysts for potential value creation in the coming years.
Organic Growth Engine
The most fundamental driver of organic growth is the continued expansion of air travel in CAAP’s core markets. The Latin American aviation market is projected to grow at a multiple of regional GDP, fueled by a rising middle class and the expansion of LCCs.6 IATA forecasts continue to show strong demand growth for the region, providing a powerful secular tailwind for CAAP’s passenger volumes.20
Beyond simply riding the wave of traffic growth, management is intensely focused on increasing the monetization of each passenger, particularly through the expansion of high-margin non-aeronautical revenues. This strategy is being executed through concrete initiatives across the portfolio. In Argentina, the company is expanding the duty-free area at the key Ezeiza International Airport by over 50%.12 In Brazil, it has inaugurated a new logistics center and is developing further real estate projects.12 Across its network, the company is optimizing its tenant mix and enhancing offerings in retail, food and beverage, and VIP services to drive higher commercial revenue per passenger.11
Major Capital Projects: The Future of Florence and Zvartnots
The most significant and potentially transformative catalysts for the company are two major expansion projects in its European and Eurasian segments. These are not mere maintenance investments but large-scale developments designed to fundamentally alter the capacity and earnings power of these assets.
- Florence Airport (Italy): This €497 million project is a complete overhaul of the airport. It includes the construction of a new, state-of-the-art passenger terminal and, crucially, a new, longer runway (2,200 meters, up from 1,560 meters). This runway extension is a game-changer, as it will allow the airport to accommodate larger aircraft and handle longer-haul flights, opening up new routes and markets. The project is expected to more than triple the airport’s capacity to 8.0 million passengers annually and is slated for completion around 2028. This will dramatically increase both aeronautical and commercial revenue potential from a key European tourist destination.8
- Zvartnots Airport (Armenia): CAAP is planning a massive US$425 million capital expenditure program for its main airport in Armenia, scheduled for 2026-2028. This investment will more than double the terminal area and significantly expand commercial spaces. The goal is to increase the airport’s capacity from approximately 3.5 million to 10.0 million passengers. This project is currently progressing through the final stages of government approval, which represents a key milestone to watch.8
These two projects are pivotal to the long-term investment thesis. Their scale is substantial relative to CAAP’s current enterprise value, and their successful completion would have a profound impact. It would lead to a step-change in the company’s revenue and EBITDA, and importantly, it would significantly increase the contribution from non-Argentine sources, thereby rebalancing the company’s geographic risk profile and potentially justifying a higher valuation multiple. However, they also introduce considerable execution risk, including the potential for construction delays, cost overruns, and regulatory hurdles. The ultimate success or failure of these projects will be a primary driver of the stock’s performance over the next five to seven years.
Inorganic Expansion and M&A Ambitions
Complementing its organic growth plans, CAAP has an explicit strategy to pursue inorganic growth through mergers and acquisitions. The company has strengthened its dedicated M&A team and is actively evaluating opportunities on a global scale.12 Management has identified the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Europe as target regions for expansion. Currently, the company is actively competing in concession bidding processes in Angola and Montenegro, demonstrating its intent to execute on this strategy.8
This M&A ambition is designed to leverage the company’s deep operational expertise in new geographies, potentially in markets with more stable political and economic backdrops than its core Argentine market. Success in this area could further diversify the company’s cash flow streams and reduce its overall risk profile.
Comprehensive Risk Assessment
An investment in Corporación América Airports requires a clear-eyed assessment of a range of significant risks, dominated by the political and macroeconomic environment in its core market, Argentina. While the company possesses structural advantages, its fortunes are inextricably tied to factors beyond its direct control.
The Argentine Nexus: Political and Economic Volatility
Argentina is the central pivot of CAAP’s risk profile, given that it accounts for the majority of the company’s airports and earnings.15
- Macroeconomic Risk: The country has a long and painful history of economic crises. The current administration under President Javier Milei has embarked on a radical “shock therapy” program to combat triple-digit inflation and chronic fiscal deficits.9 While early indicators show some success—inflation is slowing from a peak over 200%, and a fiscal surplus was achieved in early 2025—the situation remains extremely fragile.9 The austerity measures have caused a severe economic contraction and pushed the poverty rate above 50%, creating a fertile ground for social unrest and protests that could disrupt airport operations.9
- Currency Risk: The Argentine Peso (ARS) is one of the world’s most volatile currencies. Sharp devaluations directly impact CAAP’s reported U.S. dollar earnings and cash flows. While the company’s single-till concession in Argentina provides a mechanism to protect its long-term IRR, there can be significant timing mismatches between when inflation drives up local costs and when tariffs are adjusted, leading to margin compression in the interim.5 Furthermore, the government has historically imposed strict capital controls that can limit or prevent the repatriation of cash from the country, a risk that remains until the economy is fully stabilized.30
- Political Risk: President Milei’s administration governs without a majority in Congress, making the passage of crucial structural reforms exceedingly difficult.32 The political landscape is highly polarized, and the midterm legislative elections scheduled for October 2025 represent a critical test of the government’s public support and political viability.33 A poor electoral result could render the administration a lame duck, raising the risk of a policy reversal towards a more interventionist state model upon a change in government. An investment in CAAP is therefore an implicit bet on the success and continuity of the current market-friendly reform agenda in Argentina.
Jurisdictional & Regulatory Headwinds
Beyond Argentina, CAAP faces distinct regulatory risks in its other key markets.
- Brazil: The regulatory framework for airport concessions has evolved over seven different bidding rounds, and while it is generally perceived as stable, changes in government can lead to shifts in regulatory priorities or approaches to tariff setting.34 The government’s new “AmpliAR” program to concession out up to 100 regional airports could create new opportunities for CAAP but also potentially alter the competitive landscape.37
- Italy and Armenia: The primary risk in these jurisdictions is execution risk related to the massive planned capital projects. Securing and maintaining all necessary government approvals, permits, and political support for the Florence and Zvartnots expansions is paramount.8 Any delays or roadblocks could jeopardize the expected returns on these critical investments.
Financial and Operational Risks
- Debt & Refinancing Risk: While CAAP’s current leverage is low, the forthcoming cycle of heavy capital expenditure for its major projects will require substantial financing. The company’s ability to access global and local capital markets at favorable rates will be crucial. A deterioration in Argentina’s sovereign credit profile could increase CAAP’s cost of capital and make refinancing more challenging.
- Airline Partner Dependency: Like all airport operators, CAAP is dependent on the financial health and route strategies of its airline partners. A major bankruptcy of a key airline or a significant reduction in service to its airports could negatively impact traffic volumes and revenues.
- Competition: While direct competition from other airports is minimal due to the monopoly nature of concessions, CAAP does face indirect competition from alternative modes of transportation, such as long-distance buses or high-speed rail (where available), on shorter domestic routes.
Table 3: Illustrative Debt Maturity Profile
Year | Total Debt Due (USD Millions) | Type of Debt |
2025 | 100 | Local Notes (Argentina), Bank Loans (Brazil) |
2026 | 150 | Bank Loans (Italy), Local Notes (Uruguay) |
2027 | 350 | Senior Notes (USD) |
2028 | 120 | Bank Loans (Brazil, Ecuador) |
2029+ | 480 | Senior Notes (USD), Other Long-Term Debt |
Total | 1,200 | |
Note: This table is illustrative and based on aggregated data from various filings.12 It is intended to represent the general structure of the company’s debt obligations. Actual amounts and types may vary. The $1.2 billion total debt figure is from Q4 2024 earnings call data.12 |
Valuation Framework
The valuation of Corporación América Airports is a complex exercise that must account for its diverse portfolio, varied regulatory regimes, and the significant risk premium associated with its primary market. A multi-faceted approach, incorporating relative, intrinsic, and sum-of-the-parts methodologies, is necessary to form a comprehensive view.
Relative Valuation: Peer & Historical Benchmarking
The most direct public market comparables for CAAP are the publicly listed Mexican airport operators: Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC), Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR), and Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB).39 These companies operate in a similar industry but within a more stable political and macroeconomic environment.
A comparative analysis consistently shows that CAAP trades at a significant valuation discount to these Mexican peers on key multiples such as Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) and Price to Earnings (P/E).40 For example, one analyst report noted that CAAP was trading at an approximately 25% discount to the average of its Latin American peers based on 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA.41 This discount is not arbitrary; it is a rational market-based reflection of the elevated risk profile stemming from CAAP’s heavy concentration in Argentina. The central investment question is not whether a discount should exist, but whether the
current discount adequately compensates for the incremental risk. A bull would argue the discount is excessive and will narrow if Argentina stabilizes, while a bear would argue it is justified or even insufficient.
Intrinsic Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A DCF analysis provides a theoretical framework for estimating CAAP’s intrinsic value, but its output is highly sensitive to several challenging assumptions:
- Traffic & Revenue Forecasts: Projections must be built on a country-by-country basis. For Argentina, this requires taking a view on the success of the current economic reforms and forecasting GDP growth, which is projected to rebound to over 5% in 2025.42 For Italy and Armenia, forecasts must incorporate the expected step-change in capacity and traffic from the major expansion projects post-2028.
- Margin Assumptions: Future EBITDA margins will be a function of the passenger mix, the growth of high-margin commercial revenues, and the company’s ability to control costs, particularly against the backdrop of high inflation in Argentina.
- Cost of Capital (WACC): Determining an appropriate WACC is a major analytical hurdle. A single, blended WACC would be inappropriate. A more rigorous approach requires calculating separate WACCs for each country, incorporating specific country risk premiums, and then weighting them. The required risk premium for Argentina would be exceptionally high, significantly impacting the valuation.
Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) Valuation
A SOTP analysis is arguably the most suitable valuation methodology for a complex holding company like CAAP. This approach involves breaking the company down into its constituent parts and valuing each segment individually before summing them up. For CAAP, a logical segmentation would be by country or region:
- Italy: Could be valued using peer multiples from European airport operators.
- Brazil, Uruguay, Ecuador: Could be valued using a DCF model appropriate for inflation-linked emerging market infrastructure assets.
- Argentina & Armenia: Could be valued using a high-risk DCF model that reflects the single-till regulatory structure and the significant political risk.
Summing these individual valuations would provide an estimate of the company’s enterprise value. Comparing this to the current market enterprise value can help quantify any “holding company discount” the market may be applying due to the complexity of the structure and the overshadowing risk from Argentina.
Table 4: Peer Valuation Matrix
Company | Ticker | Market Cap (USD B) | EV (USD B) | EV/LTM EBITDA | LTM P/E | LTM EBITDA Margin | Net Debt/EBITDA |
Corporación América Airports | CAAP | 3.2 | 3.9 | 6.2x | 18.4x | 33.9% | 1.1x |
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico | PAC | 11.6 | 13.6 | 11.5x | 26.7x | 65.0% | 1.3x |
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste | ASR | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.0x | 13.5x | 64.3% | (0.1x) |
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte | OMAB | 5.5 | 6.0 | 10.1x | 21.7x | 74.3% | 0.8x |
Source: Compiled from data in.5 Market data as of mid-2025. EBITDA margins and leverage ratios are based on latest available financial reports. EV/EBITDA for CAAP is based on reported EBITDA of $624M.44 Peer data is from a combination of sources for illustrative comparison. |
Management & Corporate Governance
The quality and experience of the leadership team, coupled with a sound governance structure, are critical factors in assessing an investment in a company as complex as Corporación América Airports. The company’s ability to navigate volatile political landscapes and execute large-scale projects rests heavily on its management.
Leadership & Capital Allocation Track Record
CAAP is led by a seasoned management team with deep, hands-on experience in the airport concession industry. Chief Executive Officer Martín Eurnekian has been with the company for approximately 20 years, holding various roles across different countries and leading many of the processes for acquiring and developing the airports in the current portfolio.47 This long tenure provides a level of continuity and institutional knowledge that is invaluable in a business built on long-term relationships.
The team has demonstrated a strong track record in both strategic and operational execution. They have successfully built a global portfolio from their initial base of 33 airports in Argentina acquired in 1998.11 Key capital allocation decisions highlight a clear, long-term strategic vision. These include:
- Concession Renewals: Successfully negotiating long-term extensions for their most critical assets in Argentina (to 2038) and Uruguay (to 2053), thereby securing decades of future cash flows.8
- Portfolio Optimization: The strategic decision to divest their interest in five Peruvian airports in 2021 demonstrates a disciplined approach to capital allocation, allowing the company to refocus resources on its core, high-potential assets.16
- Value-Accretive Transactions: The friendly termination of the Natal concession in Brazil, which resulted in a substantial indemnification payment of over $160 million, appears to have been a well-executed maneuver that unlocked value for shareholders.25
- Ambitious Growth Investments: The initiation of the transformative expansion projects in Florence and Armenia signals management’s confidence in their ability to execute large-scale developments and drive future growth.8
This history of successful negotiation with government partners across numerous political cycles is a significant intangible asset. In an industry where success is as much about managing political relationships as it is about managing airport operations, this experience constitutes a key competitive advantage.11
Governance Structure and Shareholder Alignment
Corporación América Airports is a public limited liability company (société anonyme) incorporated under the laws of Luxembourg and its common shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker CAAP.50
The company’s articles of association stipulate that its business is managed by a board of directors composed of up to nine members.51 Currently, the board has seven directors, three of whom (43%) are classified as independent.50 As a foreign private issuer, CAAP is exempt from certain NYSE corporate governance requirements but remains subject to SEC rules, particularly those concerning the composition and responsibilities of the audit committee.51
The company is controlled by A.C.I. Airports S.à.r.l., which is part of the broader Corporación América conglomerate founded by Eduardo Eurnekian. While this control structure means that public minority shareholders have limited influence on major corporate decisions, no significant red flags concerning related-party transactions or conflicts of interest were identified in the course of this analysis. The management team’s strategic vision appears aligned with creating long-term value for all stakeholders.11
Bull & Bear Case Scenarios
The investment thesis for Corporación América Airports is subject to a wide range of potential outcomes, driven primarily by the future of Argentina and the execution of key growth projects. The following scenarios outline the principal arguments for both positive (Bull) and negative (Bear) investment outcomes.
The Bull Case
A positive investment outcome for CAAP would likely be driven by a confluence of the following factors:
- Successful Argentine Economic Turnaround: The core of the bull case rests on the success of the current administration’s economic reforms in Argentina. If the “shock therapy” program leads to sustained fiscal discipline, a durable reduction in inflation to manageable levels, and a stable, market-based exchange rate, the impact on CAAP would be profound. A stable and growing Argentine economy would boost passenger traffic, and a stronger peso would translate into significantly higher U.S. dollar-denominated earnings and cash flows. This could trigger a substantial re-rating of the company’s valuation multiple, closing the gap with its more stable Mexican peers.
- Flawless Execution of Growth Projects: In this scenario, the major expansion projects at Florence and Zvartnots airports are completed on time and within budget. These new, higher-capacity facilities come online post-2028, leading to a step-change in revenue and EBITDA generation from outside Argentina. This successful execution would not only boost overall earnings but also materially de-risk the company’s profile by reducing its reliance on Latin America, making the stock more attractive to a broader base of global infrastructure investors.
- Effective Non-Aeronautical Monetization: Management successfully executes its strategy to grow high-margin commercial revenues across its portfolio. Initiatives like the duty-free expansion at Ezeiza and real estate development in Brazil drive revenue per passenger higher, leading to an expansion of overall EBITDA margins and enhanced free cash flow generation.
- Accretive M&A: The company leverages its strong balance sheet and operational expertise to win new, attractive airport concessions in its target markets of Africa, the Middle East, or Europe, further diversifying its cash flow streams.
The Bear Case
A negative investment outcome could materialize if one or more of the company’s key risks come to fruition:
- Argentine Economic and Political Crisis: This is the most significant and destructive potential risk. In this scenario, the Milei administration’s reforms fail to gain traction or are derailed by political opposition and social unrest. Argentina could relapse into hyperinflation, suffer another sovereign debt crisis, and impose draconian capital controls, trapping CAAP’s cash within the country. A new, more interventionist government could seek to unilaterally and unfavorably renegotiate the terms of the AA2000 concession agreement, severely impairing the value of CAAP’s primary asset.
- Major Capex Blunder: The transformative projects in Italy and/or Armenia encounter significant problems. This could take the form of major construction delays, substantial cost overruns that strain the balance sheet, or a failure to secure final regulatory approvals. Such a failure would not only result in a write-down of the capital invested but would also mean the anticipated de-risking of the company’s geographic profile does not occur, leaving it heavily exposed to Argentina.
- Prolonged Global or Regional Downturn: A sharp global recession or a specific economic crisis across Latin America could severely curtail the secular growth in air travel. A sustained period of declining or stagnant passenger traffic would pressure CAAP’s revenues and profitability, making it more difficult to service its debt and fund its capital expenditures.
- Adverse Regulatory Changes: A shift in the political or regulatory environment in key markets like Brazil or Italy could lead to less favorable tariff reviews or other measures that limit the company’s profitability and return on invested capital.
Works cited
- Corporación América Airports: Home, accessed July 21, 2025, https://investors.corporacionamericaairports.com/investors/corporate-profile/default.aspx
- Corporación América Airports: CAAP, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.caap.aero/
- Corporación América Airports Announces the Filing of its Annual Report on Form 20-F for Fiscal Year 2024 – Business Wire, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250327767458/en/Corporacin-Amrica-Airports-Announces-the-Filing-of-its-Annual-Report-on-Form-20-F-for-Fiscal-Year-2024
- Corporación América Airports Announces the Filing of its Annual Report on Form 20-F for Fiscal Year 2024, accessed July 21, 2025, https://investors.corporacionamericaairports.com/investors/events-and-presentations/press-releases/news-details/2025/Corporacin-Amrica-Airports-Announces-the-Filing-of-its-Annual-Report-on-Form-20-F-for-Fiscal-Year-2024/default.aspx
- Corporación América Airports Reports First Quarter 2025 Results – Business Wire, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250522028292/en/Corporacin-Amrica-Airports-Reports-First-Quarter-2025-Results
- Latin America Aviation Industry Trends and Forecast – GlobeNewswire, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/06/25/3105061/0/en/Latin-America-Aviation-Industry-Trends-and-Forecast-2025-2034-Low-Cost-Carriers-Transform-Latin-America-s-Aviation-Landscape.html
- Latin America Aviation Industry Navigating Dynamics Comprehensive Analysis and Forecasts 2025-2033, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.datainsightsmarket.com/reports/latin-america-aviation-industry-18165
- Corporación América Airports S.A., accessed July 21, 2025, https://s23.q4cdn.com/702696462/files/doc_presentations/2025/Jun/10/CAAP_Corporate-Presentation_June-2025.pdf
- Argentina Political and Economic Challenges | FIU Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, accessed July 21, 2025, https://gordoninstitute.fiu.edu/news-events/the-policy-spotlight/2024/argentina-political-and-economic-challenges.html
- Country Risk Report Argentina – Allianz.com, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/country-and-sector-risk/country-risk/argentina.html
- CAAP – Corporación América Airports, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.caap.aero/about.php
- Earnings call transcript: Corporacion America Airports Q4 2024 …, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-corporacion-america-airports-q4-2024-results-meet-forecasts-stock-drops-93CH-3937088
- Corporación América Airports Announces Agreement to Extend for 10-Years Until 2038 the Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 Concession – SEC.gov, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1717393/000115752320001555/a52339949ex991.htm
- Corporación América Airports Announces an Amendment of the Puerta del Sur Concession, in Uruguay, accessed July 21, 2025, https://investors.corporacionamericaairports.com/investors/events-and-presentations/press-releases/news-details/2021/Corporacin-Amrica-Airports-Announces-an-Amendment-of-the-Puerta-del-Sur-Concession-in-Uruguay/default.aspx
- Corporación América Airports S.A., accessed July 21, 2025, https://s23.q4cdn.com/702696462/files/doc_presentations/2024/Feb/13/caap_ndrs-presentation_vf.pdf
- Corporación América Airports SA – SEC.gov, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1717393/000110465921151350/tm2135776d1_6k.htm
- Management Report Corporación América Airports SA, accessed July 21, 2025, http://s23.q4cdn.com/702696462/files/doc_downloads/2022/04/Management-Report-CAAP-2021.pdf
- Corporación América Airports S.A. Reports June 2025 Passenger Traffic – Morningstar, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20250718193573/corporacin-amrica-airports-sa-reports-june-2025-passenger-traffic
- Latin America Aviation Market 2025-2034 | Size,Share, Growth – MarkWide Research, accessed July 21, 2025, https://markwideresearch.com/latin-america-aviation-market/
- Passenger Growth Hits 5% in May – IATA, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-30-02/
- Latin America’s Aviation Market Grows 2.4% in January 2025 – Mexico Business News, accessed July 21, 2025, https://mexicobusiness.news/aerospace/news/latin-americas-aviation-market-grows-24-january-2025
- Latin America’s Airline Comeback: Is This Recovery Built to Last? | Aviation Market Analysis, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.oag.com/blog/latin-americas-airline-comeback-is-this-recovery-built-to-last
- Corporacion America Airports SA Common Shares (CAAP) Financials – Nasdaq, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/caap/financials
- Corporacion America Airports Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Results, accessed July 21, 2025, https://investors.corporacionamericaairports.com/investors/events-and-presentations/press-releases/news-details/2024/Corporacion-America-Airports-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2023-Results/default.aspx
- CAAP Announces Its Subsidiary ICASGA in Natal, Brazil, Receives Indemnification Payment Related to the Friendly Termination of Its Concession Agreement – Corporación América Airports, accessed July 21, 2025, https://investors.corporacionamericaairports.com/investors/events-and-presentations/press-releases/news-details/2024/CAAP-Announces-Its-Subsidiary-ICASGA-in-Natal-Brazil-Receives-Indemnification-Payment-Related-to-the-Friendly-Termination-of-Its-Concession-Agreement/default.aspx
- Corporacion America Airports SA (CAAP) – Morningstar, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/caap/quote
- Corporación América Airports SA NYSE:CAAP – Earnings Call, accessed July 21, 2025, https://s23.q4cdn.com/702696462/files/doc_downloads/2024/05/24/Transcript-Corporacio%CC%81n-Ame%CC%81rica-Airports-1Q24-Earnings-Conference-Call_revised.pdf
- Economic and political outline Argentina – Santandertrade.com, accessed July 21, 2025, https://santandertrade.com/en/portal/analyse-markets/argentina/economic-political-outline
- World Report 2025: Argentina – Human Rights Watch, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2025/country-chapters/argentina
- 2024 Investment Climate Statements: Argentina – State Department, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-investment-climate-statements/argentina/
- 2023 Investment Climate Statements: Argentina – State Department, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.state.gov/reports/2023-investment-climate-statements/argentina/
- Can radical reform unlock Argentina’s long-awaited economic recovery?, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/05/argentina-radical-reform-unlock-economic-recovery/
- Milei in 2025: Between Argentina’s mid-term elections and the IMF | PIIE, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/milei-2025-between-argentinas-mid-term-elections-and-imf
- consultation on economic regulation of airport concessions, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.anac.gov.br/assuntos/paginas-tematicas/concessoes/arquivos/Consultasobreaspectosregulatriosdeconcessesdeaeroportos_inglsfinal.pdf
- CONSULTATION ON THE ECONOMIC REGULATION OF AIRPORT CONCESSIONS – Germany Trade and Invest, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.gtai.de/:PROKO201910298006
- ASSEMBLY — 38TH SESSION – ICAO, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.icao.int/Meetings/a38/Documents/WP/wp201_en.pdf
- Next stage of Brazilian regional airports concession will be single auction per airport, not blocks – CAPA – Centre for Aviation, accessed July 21, 2025, https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/next-stage-of-brazilian-regional-airports-concession-will-be-single-auction-per-airport-not-blocks-719165
- NYSE:CAAP – Corporacion America Airports SA – TradingView, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-CAAP/
- Corporacion America Airports (CAAP) Competitors and Alternatives 2025 – MarketBeat, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/CAAP/competitors-and-alternatives/
- Corporación América Airports S.A. (CAAP) Stock Competitors & Similar Stocks Comparison, accessed July 21, 2025, https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CAAP/peers/comparison
- Corporacion America Airports (CAAP) Stock Forecast, Price Targets …, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/caap/forecast
- OECD expects Argentina to grow more than other G20 nations – MercoPress, accessed July 21, 2025, https://en.mercopress.com/2025/06/04/oecd-expects-argentina-to-grow-more-than-other-g20-nations
- World Bank lifts Argentina 2025 growth forecast to 5.5% | Buenos Aires Times, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/world-bank-lifts-argentina-2025-growth-forecast-to-55.phtml
- CAAP.US (Corporacion America Airports) | Historical Prices and Fundamental Data API, accessed July 21, 2025, https://eodhd.com/financial-summary/CAAP.US
- ASR – Grupo Aeroportua Latest Stock News & Market Updates, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ASR/
- Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) Stock Price & Overview, accessed July 21, 2025, https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/asr/
- Management – Corporación América Airports, accessed July 21, 2025, https://investors.corporacionamericaairports.com/investors/corporate-governance/management/default.aspx
- corporate governance – CAAP – Corporación América Airports, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.caap.aero/corporate.php
- Corporación América Airports Announces Agreement to Extend for 10-Years Until 2038 the Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 Concession, accessed July 21, 2025, https://investors.corporacionamericaairports.com/investors/events-and-presentations/press-releases/news-details/2020/Corporacin-Amrica-Airports-Announces-Agreement-to-Extend-for-10-Years-Until-2038-the-Aeropuertos-Argentina-2000-Concession/default.aspx
- CAAP – Corporación América Airports, accessed July 21, 2025, https://www.caap.aero/faqs.php
- Overview – Corporación América Airports, accessed July 21, 2025, https://investors.corporacionamericaairports.com/investors/corporate-governance/governance-overview/default.aspx