I. Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis of SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. (TSX: SES), formerly Secure Energy Services Inc. The company is in the advanced stages of a strategic transformation, pivoting from a diversified, cyclical Canadian energy services provider into a more resilient, infrastructure-focused leader in waste management. This evolution has fundamentally altered its financial profile, risk exposure, and long-term growth trajectory.

The core of this transformation is a significant shift in the company’s revenue and cash flow composition. Following the 2021 merger with Tervita Corporation and a subsequent major asset divestiture in early 2024, SECURE now derives approximately 75% of its Adjusted EBITDA from its Waste Management segment.¹ This segment is characterized by stable, recurring revenue streams, as roughly 80% of its volumes are tied to the ongoing, non-discretionary waste generated by oil and gas production, rather than the more volatile drilling and completion cycle.² This has resulted in a robust financial profile marked by industry-leading Adjusted EBITDA margins, high conversion of EBITDA to discretionary free cash flow (DFCF), and strong, improving returns on capital employed.¹

A central element of the investment case is a notable valuation discrepancy. Despite possessing financial metrics that are superior to many of its North American waste management peers—including higher free cash flow conversion, stronger EBITDA margins, and a greater return on invested capital—SECURE trades at a significant discount. The company’s forward enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple is approximately 4x below the peer group average of 16x, suggesting a potential disconnect between its current market valuation and its underlying fundamental performance.¹

Management has identified this valuation gap and is employing a disciplined and aggressive capital allocation strategy as a primary catalyst to address it. Between 2023 and 2025, the company plans to deploy over $1.9 billion, with a substantial portion—over $1.1 billion—earmarked for share buybacks.¹ This program, one of the most aggressive in its sector, is designed to significantly reduce the share count and accrete value on a per-share basis, directly rewarding long-term shareholders.

Nonetheless, significant risks persist. The company’s fortunes remain intrinsically linked to the health and activity levels of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). While de-risked, the business is not immune to a prolonged downturn in commodity prices that could lead to production shut-ins. Furthermore, the company faces execution risk on its organic growth projects and must navigate a complex and evolving regulatory landscape. These risks are partially mitigated by the company’s difficult-to-replicate asset network, which creates high barriers to entry, and by long-term regulatory tailwinds that mandate the environmental services SECURE provides.

In conclusion, SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. presents the profile of a company whose fundamental business reality appears to have outpaced its market perception. The investment thesis hinges on whether the market will re-rate the company in line with its new, more stable infrastructure and waste management profile, or if the concentration of its business within the Canadian energy ecosystem justifies a persistent valuation discount. This report provides a detailed examination of the data and factors necessary to evaluate this complex balance of opportunity and risk.

II. Corporate Profile & Evolved Business Model

Corporate Evolution and Strategic Repositioning

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. has undergone a profound transformation since its inception. Founded in 2007 by Rene Amirault, the company, then known as Secure Energy Services Inc., established itself as a key player in the Canadian energy services sector.⁵ A pivotal moment in its history occurred on July 2, 2021, with the completion of a transformative, all-share merger with Tervita Corporation, a major competitor in the environmental and waste services space.⁶ This transaction significantly expanded SECURE’s scale, asset base, and service capabilities, consolidating its position as a market leader.

The strategic evolution culminated on January 1, 2025, when the company officially changed its name to SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp..⁷ This was more than a cosmetic change; it was a deliberate rebranding to align the company’s public identity with its new strategic focus on its most stable and defensible business lines: waste management and critical energy infrastructure. This move signaled a definitive shift away from the perception of being a pure-play, cyclical energy services firm towards an entity with a more durable, infrastructure-like profile.

Segment Breakdown and Revenue Streams

The company’s operations are now organized into two primary, complementary segments that leverage a shared, extensive infrastructure network.

Waste Management (Approximately 75% of 2025e Adjusted EBITDA)

This segment is the cornerstone of the modern SECURE and the primary driver of its recurring cash flow. It provides a comprehensive suite of end-to-end solutions for industrial and energy-related waste streams.¹ The services are essential for customers to maintain regulatory compliance and operational continuity. Key revenue-generating activities within this segment include:

• Waste Processing and Disposal: This involves the collection, treatment, and safe disposal of various waste products. A primary component is the management of produced water, a natural byproduct of oil and gas extraction that must be continuously handled. The segment also manages hazardous and non-hazardous solid waste at its network of highly regulated industrial landfills.¹⁰
• Crude Oil Emulsion Treatment: SECURE’s facilities process waste streams to recover saleable crude oil, creating an additional value stream from waste.¹¹
• Metals Recycling: The company operates facilities that aggregate and process both ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metals from a diversified range of industrial sources.³
• Specialty Chemicals: SECURE develops and blends proprietary chemicals used to optimize waste processing and enhance asset performance for its customers, creating a vertically integrated service offering.³

Energy Infrastructure (Approximately 25% of 2025e Adjusted EBITDA)

This segment provides critical logistics services that complement the waste management operations and leverage the company’s strategic asset footprint. The revenue from this segment is largely fee-based and secured through long-term commercial agreements, adding another layer of cash flow stability.³ Services include:

• Crude Oil Gathering and Transportation: Operation of oil gathering pipeline systems that transport crude from production sites to larger hubs.¹⁰
• Terminalling and Storage: A network of pipeline-connected terminals provides customers with crude oil storage, optimization, and marketing flexibility.⁷

Geographic Footprint and Asset Network

SECURE’s strategic advantage is deeply rooted in its physical asset base. The company operates an extensive and difficult-to-replicate network of approximately 80 facilities strategically located throughout the most active regions of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and in North Dakota.² This integrated network is the physical manifestation of its competitive moat.

The key components of this network include ³:

• 55 Waste Processing and Transfer Facilities: These are the hubs for treating liquid and solid waste streams.
• 12 Industrial Landfills: These are highly strategic, long-life assets for the final disposal of solid waste.
• 12 Metal Recycling Facilities: These facilities support the growing metals recycling business line.
• 3 Oil Pipeline Systems: These systems provide stable, fee-based revenue for the Energy Infrastructure segment.

Business Model Analysis: Scalability and Defensibility

The evolution of SECURE’s business model has deliberately shifted its risk profile towards greater stability and defensibility, characteristics more commonly associated with infrastructure or utility assets than with traditional energy service companies.

Recurring Revenue Base

A critical element of this de-risking is the nature of its revenue streams. The company reports that approximately 80% of its volumes are tied to stable, production-related and recurring waste streams.² Once an oil or gas well is operational, it generates a continuous stream of produced water and other byproducts that must be managed, regardless of new drilling activity. This creates a baseline of non-discretionary, recurring demand for SECURE’s services. This contrasts sharply with its historical exposure to the highly cyclical drilling and completion (D&C) market, which now accounts for only about 20% of its cash flow sources.²

High Barriers to Entry: The Competitive “Moat”

SECURE’s business model is protected by formidable barriers to entry, making its market position highly defensible. These barriers are not easily overcome by potential competitors and are a primary source of the company’s long-term value. The key components of this “moat” are:

1. Regulatory Complexity: The process of obtaining permits and approvals for new waste management facilities, particularly industrial landfills, is exceptionally time-consuming, costly, and fraught with uncertainty. Navigating the stringent environmental regulations at multiple levels of government is a significant hurdle that protects incumbent operators.²
2. High Capital Investment: The construction of this specialized infrastructure—including processing plants, disposal wells, pipelines, and engineered landfills—requires substantial upfront capital investment, deterring all but the most well-capitalized entrants.¹²
3. Specialized Operating Expertise: The safe and efficient handling of complex, and often hazardous, industrial waste streams requires a deep base of technical and operational expertise built over many years. This is not a commodity service and cannot be easily replicated.¹²

Inherent Scalability

The existing asset network possesses significant embedded scalability. Management has indicated that the network’s trailing 12-month utilization rate is approximately 60-65%.³ This spare capacity is a crucial feature, as it means SECURE can accommodate a material increase in customer volumes and grow its revenue with very little incremental capital expenditure. This operational leverage allows for strong margin expansion and cash flow growth as activity levels in the WCSB increase.

The company’s business model can be best understood not as a service provider, but as a “utility for the oilfield.” Its infrastructure provides an essential, non-discretionary service critical for the daily operations of its customers. Oil and gas wells, once drilled, produce a constant stream of waste byproducts that, by law, must be disposed of in an environmentally compliant manner. SECURE owns the critical, permitted infrastructure required for this disposal. This ties its revenue directly to the ongoing production of oil and gas—a far more stable metric than the highly cyclical drilling and completion of new wells. This transforms the customer relationship from a short-term, project-based one to a long-term, recurring one, fundamentally enhancing the quality and predictability of its earnings.

III. Canadian Energy Sector & Market Environment

Industry Outlook for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB)

SECURE’s performance is inextricably linked to the health and activity of its core operating region, the WCSB. Canada stands as the world’s fourth-largest producer of crude oil, with the WCSB serving as the engine of its production.¹⁷ The outlook for the basin is one of modest but stable growth. Projections indicate that Canadian crude oil supply will increase by an average of 2.5% annually through 2030.³ This growth is not expected to come from a boom in new large-scale projects, but rather from the optimization and debottlenecking of existing oil sands facilities, which have become increasingly efficient.¹⁹

A significant recent development supporting this stable outlook is the expansion of pipeline takeaway capacity, most notably the completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project.²⁰ For years, constrained pipeline capacity created bottlenecks, depressing the price of Canadian crude (Western Canadian Select, or WCS) relative to U.S. benchmarks and creating uncertainty for producers. The addition of new capacity is expected to improve pricing, provide access to new markets, and give producers the confidence to maintain and modestly grow production levels. This environment of stable, long-term production is highly favorable for SECURE’s business model, which thrives on consistent waste volumes.

Relationship Between Commodity Prices and Service Demand

While SECURE’s business has become significantly more resilient to commodity price swings, it is not entirely immune. The key distinction lies in the nature of its sensitivity. The company’s revenue is primarily tied to production volumes, which are less volatile than drilling activity. Therefore, the most significant risk comes from a scenario where commodity prices fall so low for a sustained period that they drop below the cash operating costs of producers, forcing them to shut in existing wells.

The breakeven costs for major Canadian producers are a critical metric to monitor. For oil sands producers, these costs are relatively low, estimated to be around $27 per barrel on average, due to significant efficiency gains.¹⁹ As long as oil prices remain above this threshold, production is likely to continue, and so will the generation of waste streams that SECURE handles. This creates a different risk profile than that of D&C-focused service companies, whose activity levels are highly sensitive to producer investment decisions, which are in turn driven by the absolute level and expected trajectory of prices. For SECURE, price stability above the production breakeven point is more important than the absolute price level itself.

Regulatory Environment as a Structural Growth Driver

Paradoxically, an increasingly stringent regulatory environment is a significant long-term tailwind for SECURE. Governments in Canada are implementing stricter rules governing the environmental liabilities of oil and gas producers. This includes new regulations that mandate minimum annual spending on the abandonment, remediation, and reclamation of inactive or orphaned wells.³

This creates a durable, non-cyclical source of demand for SECURE’s services, particularly its industrial landfills. The process of decommissioning a well site generates substantial volumes of contaminated soil and other solid waste that require disposal in highly specialized, permitted facilities. As the owner and operator of the largest network of such landfills in the WCSB, SECURE is uniquely positioned to capture this end-of-life-cycle activity. Stricter regulations on water disposal and general waste handling further entrench the necessity of SECURE’s specialized infrastructure, making its services indispensable for its customers’ social license to operate.²

Industry Consolidation Trends

The Canadian energy services sector has been characterized by a trend towards consolidation, as companies seek to gain scale, improve efficiency, and broaden their service offerings. SECURE’s 2021 merger with Tervita was the most prominent example of this trend, creating a dominant market leader.⁶ The current market environment, which rewards operational efficiency and balance sheet strength, is likely to encourage further consolidation. With its strong financial position post-divestiture, SECURE is well-positioned to act as a consolidator, particularly in fragmented sub-sectors like metals recycling, where it has already made strategic acquisitions to expand its footprint.³

A unique aspect of SECURE’s market position is its ability to benefit from both the ongoing operations and the eventual decline of the fossil fuel industry. This creates a multi-decade runway of demand. In a scenario of sustained or growing production, the steady stream of produced water and other operational waste provides a recurring revenue base. Conversely, in a scenario of managed decline driven by the energy transition, the legal and financial obligation for producers to decommission their assets will accelerate. This end-of-life process generates enormous quantities of waste that require disposal in SECURE’s specialized landfills. This powerful, counter-cyclical hedge is a distinctive feature that enhances the long-term defensibility of its business model.

IV. Competitive Positioning & Market Leadership

The Competitive Landscape

SECURE operates in a competitive environment, but its unique, integrated model means it faces different competitors across its various service lines.

• Traditional Energy Services: In areas like specialty chemicals and fluid management, it competes with established players such as CES Energy Solutions Corp. (TSX: CEU), which provides consumable chemical solutions throughout the oilfield lifecycle.²³ Other large, diversified oilfield service companies like
  Weatherford also offer competing services in areas like waste management and wellsite services.²⁵
• Midstream Infrastructure: In its energy infrastructure segment, it competes with other midstream operators that own pipelines and terminals, such as Plains All American Pipeline (NASDAQ: PAA).²⁵
• Waste Management Peers: From a valuation and business model perspective, SECURE’s most relevant comparables are the large, publicly-traded North American waste management companies. This group includes Waste Connections (TSX: WCN), the acquirer of its divested assets, as well as GFL Environmental (TSX: GFL), Clean Harbors (NYSE: CLH), Republic Services (NYSE: RSG), and Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE: WM).¹ While these companies have a broader industrial and municipal focus, they represent the valuation benchmark for infrastructure-like waste businesses.

Analysis of Competitive Advantages

SECURE’s dominant market position is built on a foundation of durable competitive advantages that form its economic moat.

• Market Share Dominance: Following the merger with Tervita and even after the mandated divestiture, SECURE remains the clear market share leader for industrial and energy-related waste management in Western Canada.¹³ This scale provides significant operational leverage and purchasing power.
• Irreplaceable, Integrated Asset Network: The company’s most powerful advantage is its physical infrastructure. As detailed previously, the combination of high capital costs, complex regulatory hurdles, and specialized operational knowledge makes its network of processing facilities, pipelines, and especially its industrial landfills, extremely difficult, if not impossible, to replicate.² This integrated network allows SECURE to function as a “one-stop shop” for its customers, bundling services from waste generation at the wellhead (via chemicals) to final disposal (at a landfill). This integration creates sticky customer relationships and efficiencies that smaller, single-service competitors cannot match.

Pricing Power and Customer Base

The essential nature of SECURE’s services, combined with the limited number of permitted disposal and processing facilities, affords the company a degree of pricing power and stability. While it must remain competitive, its customers’ need for compliant and reliable waste management solutions makes them less sensitive to price than they would be for more discretionary services.

The company’s customer base is concentrated in the energy sector but is of high quality and reasonably diversified. The top ten customers accounted for 28% of revenue in fiscal 2024, with no single customer representing more than 10% of total revenue.⁷ This mitigates the risk associated with the loss of any single client. Furthermore, an estimated 70% of the revenue from these top ten customers comes from investment-grade counterparties, indicating a strong and financially stable client roster that reduces counterparty credit risk.³

V. In-Depth Financial Performance Analysis

Revenue and Profitability Trends

An analysis of SECURE’s financial performance over the past seven years reveals the story of its strategic transformation. Revenue figures show significant growth, largely driven by the Tervita merger in mid-2021, which more than doubled the company’s scale. The large “Oil purchase and resale” revenue line item, which relates to the marketing activities in the Energy Infrastructure segment, can distort the underlying performance of the core service business. Therefore, analyzing revenue excluding this item provides a clearer picture of operational trends.

The most compelling aspect of SECURE’s financial profile is its profitability. The company has consistently generated industry-leading Adjusted EBITDA margins, typically in the 33% to 39% range.¹ This demonstrates exceptional operational efficiency, cost control, and the benefits of its integrated, high-barrier-to-entry business model. For the full year 2024, SECURE achieved an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 35% on revenue (excluding oil purchase and resale) of $1.403 billion.⁹

Net income has shown more volatility, as it is impacted by non-cash charges like depreciation and one-time items. A notable example is the 2024 net income of $582 million, which was significantly inflated by a $520 million pre-tax gain on the asset divestiture to Waste Connections.⁹ For this reason, Adjusted EBITDA and Discretionary Free Cash Flow are more representative metrics of the company’s recurring earnings power.

Cash Flow Generation

SECURE’s ability to convert profit into cash is a core strength of its business model. The company exhibits a very high conversion of Adjusted EBITDA into Discretionary Free Cash Flow (DFCF), a metric that represents the cash available after funding all sustaining capital needs. In 2023 and 2024, this conversion ratio was approximately 60-64%, a testament to the relatively low maintenance capital requirements of its existing infrastructure.²

For the full year 2024, the company generated $411 million in funds flow from operations and $316 million in DFCF, equivalent to $1.24 per basic share.⁹ This robust and predictable cash flow generation is the engine that funds the company’s capital allocation priorities, including organic growth projects, dividends, and the substantial share repurchase program.

Balance Sheet and Capital Structure

The February 2024 asset divestiture was a watershed moment for SECURE’s balance sheet. The $1.15 billion in all-cash proceeds was immediately used to de-lever, transforming the company’s financial position.¹¹ As of June 30, 2025, the company’s Total Debt to EBITDA covenant ratio was a comfortable 2.1x, providing significant financial flexibility for future growth and shareholder returns.¹

The company’s capital structure consists of a $900 million revolving credit facility maturing in 2028 and $300 million in 6.75% senior unsecured notes due in 2029.³ With no near-term debt maturities and substantial available liquidity, the balance sheet is strong and well-positioned to support the company’s strategic objectives.

Table 1: 7-Year Key Financial Metrics Summary

Metric	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Total Revenue ($M)	$2,240	$2,320	$1,350	$2,970	$6,060	$6,150	$7,760
Revenue (excl. oil purchase/resale) ($M)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	$1,417	$1,403
Net Income ($M)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	$195	$582
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	N/A	N/A	$419 (PF)	N/A	N/A	$590	$490
Discretionary Free Cash Flow (DFCF) ($M)	N/A	N/A	$240 (PF)	N/A	N/A	N/A	$316
Total Debt ($M)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	$734 (TTM)
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	34%	35%

Note: Data for 2018-2022 is presented as available in the provided materials. Revenue (excl. oil purchase/resale) and DFCF were not consistently reported in older periods. 2020 Adjusted EBITDA and DFCF are pro forma for the Tervita transaction. 2023 Adjusted EBITDA Margin is based on Tervita’s Q4 2020 report. 2024 Net Income includes a significant one-time gain on asset sale. Total Debt for 2024 is a trailing-twelve-month figure as of June 30, 2025. N/A indicates data not readily available in the provided sources.

Sources:.6

VI. Capital Allocation Strategy & Shareholder Returns

Management’s Disciplined Capital Deployment Framework

SECURE’s management team has articulated a clear and disciplined capital allocation framework designed to maximize long-term shareholder value. The framework prioritizes uses of cash in the following order: 1) investing in high-return organic growth projects, 2) pursuing strategic, accretive acquisitions, 3) maintaining a competitive and sustainable dividend, and 4) executing opportunistic share repurchases.¹¹

The scale of this strategy is substantial. Between 2023 and 2025, the company anticipates deploying over $1.9 billion of capital. The breakdown of this planned deployment underscores the current strategic focus: approximately $1.1 billion for share buybacks, $315 million for dividends, $300 million for organic growth, and $190 million for M&A.¹ This allocation clearly signals that, following the de-leveraging of the balance sheet, returning capital to shareholders is the paramount priority.

Share Repurchases: A Primary Value Driver

The share repurchase program is the most significant component of the capital allocation strategy and a core element of the investment thesis. In 2024 alone, SECURE repurchased 57.3 million common shares for a total cost of $657 million, reducing its total shares outstanding by a remarkable 19% in a single year.⁹

This aggressive buyback activity is a clear signal from management that it believes the company’s shares are fundamentally undervalued. By repurchasing nearly 30% of its outstanding shares over a 2.5-year period, the company is mechanically increasing the per-share value of the business for the remaining shareholders.¹ This strategy is particularly effective when a company generates strong free cash flow and trades at a low multiple, as each dollar spent on buybacks retires a larger portion of the company’s equity.

Dividend Policy and Sustainability

SECURE maintains a policy of returning capital to shareholders through a regular dividend. The current dividend is set at $0.10 per share per quarter, or $0.40 per share on an annualized basis.⁹ This provides a dividend yield of approximately 2.4% to 2.7%, which is competitive within its peer group.³ Given the company’s robust discretionary free cash flow generation—$316 million in 2024—the dividend appears highly sustainable.⁹ The total annual dividend commitment is a fraction of the DFCF, leaving ample cash for growth investments and share repurchases.

Returns on Capital: A Measure of Effectiveness

A key indicator of effective capital allocation is the return generated on invested capital. SECURE has demonstrated a strong and improving ability to deploy capital profitably. The company’s Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) have shown significant improvement, with ROIC increasing from 17% to 21% between 2022 and 2024.¹ This metric, which is substantially higher than the peer average of approximately 9%, indicates that management is successfully investing in projects and assets that generate high rates of return, a hallmark of disciplined and effective capital management.¹

Table 2: Capital Deployment & Shareholder Return Summary (2023-2025E)

Metric	2023	2024	2025E	Total (2023-2025E)
Organic Growth Capex ($M)	N/A	$85	$125	~$300
M&A ($M)	N/A	$162	N/A	~$190
Dividends Paid ($M)	N/A	N/A	N/A	~$315
Shares Repurchased ($M)	~$250	$657	N/A	~$1,100
Total Capital Deployed ($M)	N/A	N/A	N/A	~$1,905
Shareholder Yield (%)	N/A	~20%	N/A	N/A

Note: Figures are based on company guidance and reported results. The total figures for 2023-2025E are based on company presentations. 2024 M&A reflects the Edmonton metals recycling acquisition. 2023 Share Repurchases reflects buybacks since Dec 2022. Shareholder Yield for 2024 is an estimate based on dividends and buybacks relative to average market capitalization.

Sources:.1

VII. Growth Opportunities & Strategic Initiatives

Organic Growth Fueled by Contracted Projects

SECURE has identified several high-return organic growth opportunities and has allocated approximately $125 million in growth capital for 2025 to pursue them.³² A key feature of this program is that the majority of the investment is directed towards infrastructure-based projects that are backed by long-term commercial agreements, providing a high degree of certainty on future cash flows.

Key organic growth initiatives include:

• Produced Water Disposal Infrastructure: The company is constructing two new produced water disposal facilities, complete with integrated pipelines, in the highly active Montney region of the WCSB. These projects are underpinned by 10-year contracts, which de-risks the investment and ensures a long-term revenue stream.¹
• Clearwater Terminal Expansion: SECURE recently completed the third phase of its Clearwater heavy oil terminal expansion. This project increased the terminal’s capacity to 75,000 barrels per day and added new emulsion treating capabilities, with the expanded capacity also secured by long-term contracts.³
• Metals Recycling Expansion: Following the strategic acquisition of a metals recycling hub in Edmonton, the company is investing in enhancing its processing capabilities. This includes leveraging an under-utilized mega shredder to increase throughput and efficiency, capitalizing on the long-term trend towards green steel production, which relies on recycled scrap metal.³

Inorganic Growth through Strategic M&A

In addition to organic projects, SECURE continues to evaluate strategic “tuck-in” acquisitions to supplement its growth. The company’s M&A strategy is focused on opportunities that expand its geographic footprint, add new service capabilities, and are aligned with its core infrastructure and waste management profile.³ The metals recycling and industrial waste sectors are particularly attractive targets, as they remain relatively fragmented and offer opportunities for a well-capitalized player like SECURE to act as a consolidator. The January 2025 acquisition of the Edmonton metals recycling business for $152-$162 million is a prime example of this strategy in action.³

Management’s Strategic Vision and Execution Track Record

The current leadership team, headed by President and CEO Allen Gransch, has demonstrated a clear strategic vision and a strong execution track record since taking the helm from founder Rene Amirault.¹ The team’s performance during the challenging period of the forced divestiture is particularly noteworthy. They successfully navigated a complex regulatory process, negotiated an accretive all-cash sale for the divested assets under duress, and then decisively pivoted the company’s strategy. The rapid de-leveraging of the balance sheet and the immediate launch of an aggressive capital return program highlight a management team that is strategically agile, financially disciplined, and focused on creating shareholder value.

VIII. Analysis of Recent Challenges (2022-2024)

The 2022-2024 period was transformative for SECURE, defined by a major corporate transaction and its subsequent regulatory fallout, as well as broader macroeconomic headwinds.

The Tervita Merger and Forced Divestiture

The most significant event of this period was the aftermath of the July 2021 merger with Tervita.⁶ The transaction was challenged by Canada’s Competition Bureau on the grounds that it would substantially lessen competition for oil and gas waste services in the WCSB. In March 2023, the Competition Tribunal ruled against SECURE, ordering the company to divest a significant number of facilities to resolve the competitive concerns.⁵

This ruling presented a major challenge, forcing the company to sell a portfolio of 29 productive assets under a mandated timeline. However, management was able to turn this challenge into a strategic opportunity. In February 2024, SECURE completed the sale of the divestiture package to Waste Connections for $1.15 billion in cash.¹¹ The valuation was considered accretive, and the all-cash nature of the deal provided a massive infusion of capital. This allowed the company to fundamentally reset its balance sheet by paying down debt and provided the dry powder to launch its substantial shareholder return program. While the divestiture reduced the company’s overall scale, it ultimately acted as a catalyst for the strategic and financial transformation that defines the company today.

Macroeconomic Headwinds

During this period, SECURE, like the rest of the industry, navigated a challenging macroeconomic environment.

• Inflation and Labor Costs: The global surge in inflation put upward pressure on operating costs, from fuel and chemicals to equipment. The Canadian energy sector also faced a tight labor market, leading to wage inflation as companies competed for skilled workers.³⁵ SECURE’s ability to maintain its high EBITDA margins throughout this period suggests it was largely successful in managing these costs and passing them through to customers.
• Commodity Price Volatility: The period was marked by significant swings in global oil and natural gas prices, driven by geopolitical events and shifting demand patterns.¹⁹ While SECURE’s recurring revenue model insulated it from the worst of this volatility, fluctuations in commodity prices invariably impact customer sentiment, activity levels, and the general health of the WCSB ecosystem.

Shifting Capital Spending Patterns by Producers

A key trend during the 2022-2024 period was a fundamental shift in the behavior of oil and gas producers. Having endured several downturns, E&P companies broadly adopted a new model focused on capital discipline, prioritizing shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks) over aggressive production growth.³⁷ This “value over volume” strategy is a net positive for SECURE. It fosters a more stable and predictable operating environment, supporting the long-term production levels that drive SECURE’s recurring waste volumes, rather than contributing to the boom-bust cycles of drilling that characterized previous eras.

IX. Comprehensive Valuation Assessment

The valuation of SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. is a central component of the investment thesis, defined by a stark contrast between its strong fundamental metrics and its discounted trading multiples relative to its most relevant peers.

Peer Group Valuation Analysis

The most insightful valuation approach is a comparative analysis against a peer group of publicly-traded North American waste management companies. While SECURE has a unique concentration in the energy sector, its business model—characterized by recurring revenue, high margins, and infrastructure-like assets—is most analogous to these firms.

The data reveals a significant valuation gap. Based on 2025 estimates, SECURE trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple that is approximately 4 times lower than the peer group average of roughly 16x.¹ This discount is substantial and raises a critical question: is it justified?

An analysis of underlying performance metrics suggests the discount may be excessive. Compared to its waste management peers, SECURE exhibits ¹:

• Superior Free Cash Flow Conversion: Exceeding 50%, versus a peer average of ~39%.
• Higher Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 33.6%, versus a peer average of ~27%.
• Substantially Higher Return on Invested Capital: 21.1%, versus a peer average of ~9%.

The primary arguments for the valuation discount likely revolve around SECURE’s smaller scale, its geographic concentration in the WCSB, and its customer concentration within the Canadian energy industry, which is perceived as being higher risk than the diversified municipal and industrial customer bases of its peers. The core of the valuation debate is whether the market is over-penalizing SECURE for these factors and failing to give it credit for its superior profitability and returns.

Free Cash Flow Yield

Another compelling valuation metric is the discretionary free cash flow (DFCF) yield. Based on the reported 2024 DFCF of $316 million and a market capitalization of approximately $3.8 billion, SECURE’s trailing DFCF yield is over 8%.² This represents a very attractive return for an infrastructure-like business with stable, recurring cash flows and provides strong support for the company’s dividend and buyback programs.

Asset-Based Valuation Considerations

While a formal asset valuation is beyond the scope of this analysis, it is important to consider the intrinsic value of SECURE’s physical assets. Given the high barriers to entry—particularly the regulatory hurdles associated with permitting new landfills and waste processing facilities—the replacement cost of its integrated network is substantial. This large, in-place, and permitted asset base likely provides a significant floor to the company’s valuation, as it would be exceedingly difficult and expensive for a competitor to replicate.

Table 3: Valuation Multiples and Key Metrics vs. Peer Group

Metric	SES.TO	WCN	GFL	CLH	RSG	WM	Peer Average
Valuation
EV/EBITDA (2025E)	~8-9x	~17x	~13x	~10x	~15x	~16x	~14.2x
P/E (2025E)	~10-12x	~32x	~28x	~20x	~26x	~27x	~26.6x
DFCF Yield (Trailing)	>8%	~4-5%	~3-4%	~6-7%	~5-6%	~5-6%	~5.2%
Dividend Yield	~2.4%	~0.8%	~0.2%	N/A	~1.2%	~1.5%	~1.0%
Fundamentals
Adj. EBITDA Margin (%)	33.6%	~28%	~26%	~22%	~30%	~28%	~26.8%
ROIC (%)	21.1%	~8%	~5%	~10%	~11%	~12%	~9.2%
FCF Conversion (%)	>50%	~40%	~35%	~45%	~42%	~43%	~41.0%

Note: Peer group data are estimates based on publicly available information and consensus analyst forecasts for general comparison. SES’s EV/EBITDA is based on 2025 guidance of $510-540M and an EV of ~$4.5B. The ~4x multiple cited in some sources appears to be an aggressive interpretation; a more conservative calculation based on guidance still shows a significant discount. Peer Average excludes SES. FCF Conversion for peers is an approximation.

Sources:.1

X. Risk Assessment

A thorough analysis of SECURE requires a clear-eyed assessment of the potential risks to its business model and financial performance.

Market and Commodity Risk

• Energy Sector Dependence: This is the primary risk. Despite its successful transformation, SECURE’s revenue and cash flow are still fundamentally derived from the activities of oil and gas producers in the WCSB. A severe and prolonged downturn in commodity prices that leads to widespread, long-term production shut-ins would materially reduce the volume of waste streams and negatively impact the company’s results. While the business is more resilient to price volatility, it is not entirely decoupled from the health of its core end market.⁷
• Scrap Metal Price Volatility: The metals recycling business, a growing component of the Waste Management segment, is exposed to the cyclicality of global scrap metal prices. These prices are influenced by global economic growth, industrial production, and trade policies, such as the U.S. tariffs on steel, which can create volatility and margin pressure.⁷

Operational Risks

• Project Execution: The company has a significant capital program for organic growth. Delays, cost overruns, or an inability to successfully commission new facilities like the Montney water disposal plants could negatively impact expected returns and future growth.⁷
• Operational Disruptions: The company’s operations are subject to inherent risks, including equipment failure, pipeline incidents, and extreme weather events like wildfires or flooding, which can disrupt operations and lead to unplanned downtime and repair costs.⁷
• Labor Market: The company operates in a competitive labor market and relies on a skilled workforce. An inability to attract and retain qualified personnel could lead to increased labor costs and operational challenges.⁷

Regulatory and Environmental Risks

• Permitting and Compliance: SECURE’s operations are subject to a complex web of stringent environmental regulations. Changes to these regulations could impose significant new compliance costs. Furthermore, the company’s growth depends on its ability to obtain and renew permits for its facilities, a process that can be lengthy and uncertain.⁷
• Environmental Liabilities: The nature of the waste management business carries the inherent risk of environmental liabilities. While the company adheres to high standards and carries insurance, an unforeseen event could result in significant remediation costs and fines. The company also has substantial long-term asset retirement obligations for its facilities that must be funded over time.⁷

Financial and Counterparty Risks

• Customer Concentration: Although diversified among many producers, the company’s customer base is concentrated within a single industry—oil and gas. A systemic financial crisis within the Canadian E&P sector would pose a significant counterparty credit risk.⁷
• Interest Rate Risk: A portion of the company’s debt, particularly the revolving credit facility, is subject to floating interest rates. A sustained increase in benchmark interest rates would increase the company’s financing costs and reduce free cash flow.⁷

XI. Management Quality & Corporate Governance

Management Team and Track Record

SECURE is led by a relatively new executive team that has navigated a period of significant change. Allen Gransch was appointed President in November 2022 and assumed the role of CEO in May 2024, succeeding the company’s founder, Rene Amirault, who now serves as Vice Chair of the Board.⁵ Mr. Gransch, along with CFO Chad Magus and COO Corey Higham, form a leadership group with deep experience within the company and the industry.³⁴

The team’s strategic acumen and capital discipline have been tested and proven through the Tervita merger and subsequent divestiture. Their ability to manage this complex, multi-year process—ultimately extracting an accretive valuation for the divested assets and using the proceeds to execute a clear and decisive strategic pivot—is a strong positive indicator of their capabilities. The immediate focus on de-leveraging and initiating a large-scale capital return program demonstrates a commitment to financial discipline and shareholder value creation.

Shareholder Alignment and Corporate Governance

There are strong indicators of alignment between management, the board, and shareholders.

• Insider Ownership: As of December 31, 2024, the directors and executive officers of the corporation as a group beneficially owned or controlled approximately 17.65% of the outstanding common shares.⁷ This significant “skin in the game” ensures that the interests of the leadership team are closely aligned with those of external shareholders.
• Capital Allocation: The aggressive share repurchase program is arguably the strongest evidence of shareholder alignment. By using a substantial portion of the company’s free cash flow to buy back stock at what they perceive to be a discounted price, management is directly acting to enhance per-share value for the remaining owners.
• Board Structure and Policies: The company has a formal governance structure, with mandates for the Board of Directors and its various committees (Audit, Corporate Governance & Nominating, etc.) publicly available.⁴¹ The Board includes a mix of company insiders and independent directors with extensive experience in the energy and finance industries.³⁴

XII. Concluding Synthesis

The Bull Case Summarized

The investment proposition for SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. is centered on a successful and largely completed business transformation that the market appears not to have fully recognized. The bull case rests on several key pillars:

• Transformed Business Model: SECURE has fundamentally de-risked its business, shifting from a cyclical energy services provider to a stable waste management and infrastructure company with over 80% of its volumes tied to recurring, production-based activities.
• Dominant Market Position: The company is the market leader in its core region, protected by a formidable competitive moat built on an irreplaceable network of regulated and capital-intensive assets.
• Superior Financial Profile: It generates industry-leading EBITDA margins, converts a high percentage of that EBITDA into discretionary free cash flow, and earns a strong return on invested capital, outperforming its most relevant peers on key metrics.
• Aggressive Capital Return: Management is executing a clear and shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy, using its substantial free cash flow to aggressively repurchase shares and pay a sustainable dividend.
• Valuation Disconnect: Despite its superior financial performance, the company trades at a significant valuation discount to its North American waste management peers, presenting a potential opportunity for multiple re-rating as the market gains a better appreciation for its new business model.

The Bear Case Summarized

Conversely, a cautious or bearish perspective would focus on the inherent risks and the arguments justifying the current valuation discount:

• Inescapable Energy Linkage: Despite the shift to a production-based model, the company’s destiny is ultimately tied to the health of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. A structural decline in Canadian oil and gas production would be a significant headwind.
• Geographic and Customer Concentration: Unlike its large-cap peers, which serve diversified municipal and industrial customers across North America, SECURE’s business is highly concentrated in one geographic region and one primary industry. This lack of diversification warrants a valuation discount.
• Execution and Regulatory Risk: The company must successfully execute its organic growth projects to meet expectations. It also operates in a highly regulated industry where unforeseen changes in environmental policy could impose significant costs.
• Risk of a Persistent Discount: The market may continue to view SECURE as an “energy stock” rather than a “waste management” or “infrastructure” stock, causing the valuation gap to persist indefinitely, regardless of its financial performance.

Final Objective Statement

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. represents a compelling case of corporate transformation. The company has successfully repositioned itself into a more stable, profitable, and cash-generative business. Management has demonstrated strategic clarity and financial discipline in navigating a complex merger and divestiture, and is now executing a robust capital return program. The central question for an investor is one of valuation and market perception. The decision to invest hinges on an assessment of whether the company’s superior financial metrics and defensible market position will eventually lead to a valuation re-rating that closes the gap with its peers, or if the inherent risks associated with its concentration in the Canadian energy sector justify a permanent discount.

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