I. Executive Summary

Spirax Group represents a compelling investment opportunity as a best-in-class industrial compounder with a wide and durable competitive moat. The Group’s business model, characterized by a high proportion of recurring revenue derived from customers’ essential operating budgets, provides exceptional earnings visibility and has underpinned a remarkable 56-year track record of consecutive annual dividend growth.¹ This resilience is fortified by a highly diversified exposure to a broad range of defensive and cyclical end-markets across a global footprint.

The core of the investment thesis rests on the Group’s unique strategic positioning at the nexus of two powerful, multi-decade secular trends: industrial decarbonization and digitalization. Through a series of transformative acquisitions in 2022, Spirax has strategically pivoted to become a key enabler of industrial electrification, significantly expanding its addressable market and long-term growth potential.³ This is complemented by ongoing innovation in digitally connected products that enhance customer efficiency and deepen Spirax’s competitive advantage.

Recent macroeconomic headwinds, particularly a significant but temporary destocking cycle in the high-margin Biopharm sector, have impacted short-term financial performance and led to a material compression of the stock’s historical premium valuation.¹ This de-rating presents a rare and attractive entry point for investors to acquire a high-quality, market-leading enterprise at a more reasonable price. While risks related to the integration of recent acquisitions, end-market cyclicality, and a recent leadership transition persist, the Group’s fundamental strengths, disciplined capital allocation, and alignment with powerful secular tailwinds provide a clear pathway to sustained value creation. The risk-reward profile is considered highly favorable for investors with a long-term horizon.

II. Company Overview & Business Model

Corporate Profile & Strategic Evolution

Founded in 1888, Spirax Group has evolved from a UK-based importer of German steam traps into a FTSE 100 constituent and a global leader in thermal energy management and niche pumping solutions.⁶ The company’s long history is a testament to its ability to adapt and innovate, maintaining its market leadership for over 135 years.²

A pivotal recent development was the rebranding from “Spirax-Sarco Engineering PLC” to “Spirax Group PLC” in February 2024, a move formally approved by shareholders and completed in June 2024.⁹ This change is far more than cosmetic; it is a deliberate strategic signal of the company’s transformation. The previous name created confusion between the parent company and its largest and most well-known trading division, Spirax Sarco.² The new identity as “Spirax Group” better reflects its structure as a group of three distinct, yet synergistic, world-leading businesses. This rebranding strategically positions the company for a future where its Electric Thermal Solutions business plays an increasingly central role in its growth narrative, aligning the corporate identity with its forward-looking strategy focused on broader thermal energy solutions beyond its traditional steam expertise. The Group’s stated purpose, to “engineer a more efficient, safer and sustainable world,” is the guiding principle that connects its business segments and directly addresses the critical needs of its industrial customers, particularly concerning decarbonization and resource efficiency.¹

Core Business Segments

Spirax Group’s operations are organized into three highly-aligned, market-leading businesses that provide mission-critical solutions to a diverse global customer base.²

Steam Thermal Solutions (STS)

The foundational and largest segment of the Group, STS is the global leader in the control and management of industrial and commercial steam systems. Its product portfolio is comprehensive, including steam traps, control systems, condensate management, and thermal energy management products.¹ These components are essential for a vast range of industrial processes such as heating, curing, cooking, cleaning, and sterilizing.¹

In Fiscal Year 2023, STS generated revenue of £910.1 million, accounting for 54% of total Group revenue.¹ The segment operates a successful dual-brand strategy, leveraging the strength of the flagship Spirax Sarco brand alongside the acquired Gestra brand, which specializes in boiler house products and services.³

Electric Thermal Solutions (ETS)

The ETS segment provides advanced electrical process heating and temperature management solutions. This business has been the focus of significant strategic investment, having been dramatically scaled up through the acquisitions of Vulcanic and Durex Industries in 2022.³ ETS is now a critical pillar of the Group’s future growth strategy, directly addressing the global trend of industrial electrification.

ETS contributed £378.5 million in revenue in FY23, or 23% of the Group total, a figure that reflects the full-year impact of its recent acquisitions.¹ The segment’s strategy is organized around its key brands: Chromalox and Vulcanic serve as the lead brands for industrial process heating and large-scale decarbonization solutions, while Thermocoax and Durex Industries specialize in ultra-critical, custom-designed heating solutions for high-technology sectors like semiconductor manufacturing and aerospace.³

Watson-Marlow Fluid Technology Solutions (WMFTS)

WMFTS is a world-leading specialist in peristaltic pumps and associated fluid path technologies.³ Peristaltic pumps are a type of positive displacement pump essential for applications that demand precise, sterile, and contamination-free handling of fluids, as the fluid is contained entirely within a tube and never contacts the pump mechanism.¹⁶

This segment generated £394.0 million in revenue in FY23, representing 23% of the Group total.¹ WMFTS has significant exposure to the defensive and high-growth Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology (“Biopharm”) sector. While this end-market has been a major growth driver, it also introduced volatility; Biopharm accounted for approximately 60% of WMFTS sales in 2022 before falling to around 50% in 2023 due to a significant post-pandemic inventory correction.³

Geographic Footprint & End-Market Exposure

Spirax Group’s operations are geographically and industrially diverse, which is a key source of its resilience. The Group maintains a direct sales presence in 66 countries, operates 37 manufacturing facilities globally, and serves over 110,000 customers across 164 countries.²

Based on 2022 financial data, the revenue breakdown by geography is approximately:

• Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA): ~50%
• North America: ~27%
• Asia Pacific: ~13%
• Rest of World: ~9% ¹⁷

This broad geographic spread mitigates risk from regional economic downturns. Similarly, the Group’s end-market exposure is exceptionally diversified, spanning defensive sectors like Food & Beverage (a key market for STS), Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology (the core of WMFTS), and Healthcare, alongside more economically sensitive sectors such as Chemicals, Oil & Gas, and Power Generation.³

Business Model Sustainability & Recurring Revenue

The cornerstone of Spirax Group’s investment case is its remarkably resilient and sustainable business model. A defining characteristic is that approximately 85% of Group revenue is generated from customers’ recurring operating expenditure (OpEx) budgets.² This revenue stream comes from the essential maintenance, repair, and operation (MRO) of the Group’s vast installed base of products, as well as small, efficiency-improving projects.

In contrast, only about 15% of sales are tied to larger, more cyclical capital expenditure (CapEx) projects for new plant construction or major expansions.² This high proportion of non-discretionary, OpEx-driven revenue provides the Group with a stable and predictable stream of earnings and cash flow, enabling it to perform consistently through economic cycles.

This business model creates a powerful virtuous cycle. The large and growing installed base of mission-critical products generates a continuous flow of high-margin aftermarket sales and service revenue. This predictable cash flow, in turn, funds the extensive direct sales engineering force and robust R&D programs. These investments reinforce the Group’s competitive moat and drive the sale of new products, which further expands the installed base and future recurring revenue streams. This self-perpetuating flywheel is a key driver of the Group’s long-term, compounding growth.

III. Industry Dynamics & Competitive Positioning

Market Landscape Analysis

Spirax Group operates at the intersection of several large and growing industrial markets, supported by powerful long-term secular trends.

• Thermal Management Market: This broad market, which encompasses solutions for heat dissipation in electronics, automotive, and industrial applications, is experiencing robust growth. Market research forecasts project the market to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6-10%, reaching a size of approximately $25-28 billion by the early 2030s.²⁰ Growth is fueled by the increasing power density of electronics, the proliferation of data centers, and the shift to electric vehicles, all of which require more sophisticated thermal management.²⁰
• Industrial Steam Systems Market: While more mature, this market continues to exhibit steady growth, with estimates projecting a CAGR of 3.5% to 5.2% to reach a global size of around $23-25 billion by 2032.²³ Key drivers include ongoing industrialization in emerging economies and the persistent need for energy efficiency upgrades and system optimization in developed markets.²⁶
• Industrial Automation Market: This represents a significant tailwind for Spirax. The market for industrial automation and control systems is vast and expanding rapidly, with projections indicating it will exceed $300 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 8-11%.²⁸ Spirax’s products are integral components in the automation and optimization of industrial processes, directly benefiting from this trend.

Secular Growth Trends

Spirax is exceptionally well-positioned to capitalize on three transformative megatrends shaping the industrial landscape:

1. Industrial Decarbonization & Electrification: The global imperative to achieve Net Zero carbon emissions is forcing a generational shift in how industries generate and use thermal energy. There is a clear and accelerating trend away from traditional fossil-fuel-fired boilers toward cleaner, electric-powered solutions. Spirax’s strategic expansion of its Electric Thermal Solutions (ETS) division is a direct and powerful play on this multi-decade transition, positioning the Group as a key enabler of industrial electrification.⁹
2. Digitalization & Industry 4.0: The convergence of information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) is revolutionizing manufacturing. The integration of the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), and advanced data analytics allows for real-time monitoring, predictive maintenance, and process optimization, driving significant efficiency gains.²⁸ Spirax is actively participating in this trend by developing digitally connected products, such as its wireless steam trap monitoring systems and the GS-X range of PID controllers, and offering data-driven services like “Steam Insight Services”.³²
3. Resource Efficiency: Driven by both regulatory pressure and economic necessity, industrial customers are increasingly focused on reducing their consumption of energy and water. This is the core, long-standing value proposition of Spirax’s STS business. Through comprehensive steam system audits and the application of its products, Spirax helps customers identify and eliminate waste, directly improving their operational efficiency and reducing their environmental footprint.³²

Competitive Moat Analysis (The Spirax Advantage)

Spirax Group possesses a wide and durable competitive moat, built on a combination of mutually reinforcing advantages that are exceptionally difficult for competitors to replicate.

• The Direct Sales Force: This is the company’s primary and most formidable competitive advantage. Spirax employs a global force of over 2,100 sales and service engineers.² This is estimated to be approximately ten times larger than that of its nearest competitor.³⁵ These are not conventional salespeople; they are highly qualified technical experts, many with engineering degrees and doctorates, who act as trusted consultants to their customers. They “walk the plant,” diagnosing complex problems with thermal energy and fluid systems and providing bespoke solutions.³⁵ This direct, problem-solving approach builds deep, long-lasting, and “sticky” customer relationships. Crucially, this model allows Spirax to
  “self-generate” approximately 40% of its revenue by proactively identifying efficiency improvements and cost-saving opportunities that customers were often unaware of, effectively creating its own demand.²
• Brand, Reputation, and Technical Expertise: With a heritage spanning over 135 years, the Spirax Sarco brand is globally recognized and synonymous with quality, reliability, and expertise in steam systems.² This long-standing reputation for excellence, backed by a portfolio of proprietary technology and patents, creates immense brand equity and a high degree of customer trust, making it the default choice for mission-critical applications.³⁶
• Global Scale and Distribution Network: The Group’s direct presence in 66 countries, supported by 37 strategically located manufacturing sites, provides a significant operational advantage.² This global infrastructure enables Spirax to offer localized technical support and ensure rapid product availability. For many customers, where production continuity is paramount, the ability to provide same-day delivery for critical components is a key differentiator that commands pricing power.³⁵

The direct sales force also functions as an invaluable, real-time market intelligence network. By being on-site with customers across dozens of industries every day, these engineers gain unparalleled insight into emerging operational challenges and unmet needs. This direct feedback loop is far more potent than traditional market research, allowing Spirax to steer its R&D efforts toward developing highly relevant and practical solutions. This insight-driven innovation ensures that R&D investment is highly effective, leading to a pipeline of new products with strong market demand and reinforcing the company’s technological leadership.

Competitive Benchmarking

Spirax’s competitive landscape includes large, diversified industrial conglomerates and smaller, specialized players. Key competitors include IMI plc, Rotork plc, The Weir Group, and Smiths Group in the UK, as well as global giants like Emerson Electric and specialized firms such as Armstrong International and nVent.²⁰

In its core Steam Thermal Solutions business, Spirax is the undisputed global market leader. While competitors offer individual products, none can match Spirax’s comprehensive system-level expertise, the scale of its direct service network, or its singular focus on steam. In the niche market for peristaltic pumps, the Watson-Marlow division is also the clear global leader, competing with firms like Verder Group and Graco.⁴⁰

Financially, Spirax has consistently demonstrated superior profitability and returns on capital compared to the majority of its peers. Its historical adjusted operating margins, typically above 20%, are a hallmark of its strong competitive positioning and pricing power.

Barriers to Entry

The markets in which Spirax operates have significant barriers to entry. These include the substantial capital investment required for global manufacturing and distribution, the deep technical expertise in thermodynamics and fluid dynamics, and the need to comply with a complex web of international safety and environmental regulations.⁴²

However, the most profound barrier to entry is the near impossibility of replicating Spirax’s direct sales and service network. A new entrant would need to invest billions of dollars and decades of time to build a comparable global force of specialized engineers and, more importantly, to cultivate the deep-seated customer relationships and trust that Spirax has earned over a century. This human capital and relationship-based moat is the company’s most enduring and valuable asset.

IV. Financial Performance Analysis (2022-2024)

Spirax Group’s financial performance over the 2022-2024 period reflects a story of navigating significant macroeconomic challenges, executing a major strategic pivot, and demonstrating the underlying resilience of its business model.

Revenue Trajectory & Key Drivers

After a period of strong growth, with revenue increasing from £1.19 billion in 2020 to £1.68 billion in 2023, the Group’s top line stabilized at £1.67 billion in 2024.⁴⁴

• FY 2022: A standout year demonstrating strong momentum. The Group delivered reported revenue growth of 20%, with impressive organic growth of 14%. This performance was driven by robust volume increases across all divisions and effective price management to offset significant cost inflation. All three businesses grew faster than their respective underlying markets.³
• FY 2023: A more challenging year defined by specific end-market headwinds. While reported revenue grew 4.5% to £1.68 billion, this was primarily due to the full-year consolidation of the Vulcanic and Durex acquisitions. On an organic basis, revenue declined by 1%.¹ This was set against a difficult macroeconomic backdrop where global industrial production (IP) growth was a mere 0.3%.¹ The primary driver of the organic decline was a sharp -19% contraction in the Watson-Marlow segment, caused by a major inventory destocking cycle among its Biopharm customers following peak demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.¹ In contrast, the core Steam Thermal Solutions business demonstrated remarkable resilience, posting +8% organic growth, while the ETS segment grew a modest +2% organically, impacted by a slowdown in the semiconductor sector.¹
• FY 2024: A year of stabilization and recovery. The Group returned to organic growth of +4%, once again outperforming a weak global IP environment of 1.7%.¹⁴ This recovery was led by a strong performance in ETS, which grew 10% organically as operational improvements and integration benefits took hold. Watson-Marlow returned to positive territory with +3% organic growth, signaling that the worst of the Biopharm destocking was over. The STS segment grew 1% organically, a solid performance given a strong prior-year comparator and specific project weakness in China.¹⁴

Profitability and Margin Evolution

Spirax Group has a long-standing reputation for best-in-class profitability, with adjusted operating margins historically ranging from 22% to 25%.³

• 2023 Margin Compression: In FY23, the Group’s adjusted operating margin experienced a significant contraction, falling 290 basis points from 23.6% to 20.7%.¹ This was not due to a broad-based operational issue, but rather a direct result of an “adverse mix impact”.¹ The sharp revenue decline was concentrated in the Watson-Marlow Biopharm business, which is one of the Group’s highest-margin activities. The collapse in sales from this highly profitable segment disproportionately impacted the Group’s overall margin profile. This was clearly visible in the WMFTS segment’s statutory operating margin, which fell by 1,100 basis points from 31.6% in 2022 to 20.6% in 2023.¹
• 2024 Margin Stabilization: In FY24, the adjusted operating margin stabilized, improving by 10 basis points on an organic basis. The reported margin of 20.1% was affected by adverse foreign exchange movements.¹⁴ The margin improvement in the ETS segment was a notable positive, demonstrating progress in the integration of its recent acquisitions.⁴⁷

The 2023 results, while challenging, powerfully illustrate the strategic benefit of the Group’s diversified three-business structure. A standalone company experiencing the -19% organic sales decline seen at WMFTS would have faced a catastrophic earnings collapse. However, for Spirax, the exceptional resilience of the core STS business—which grew 8% organically in a tough macro environment—provided a critical profit and cash flow buffer. This stability allowed the Group to absorb the shock from the Biopharm downturn while continuing to invest in its long-term strategic priorities.

Cash Flow Generation and Balance Sheet Strength

Spirax is a highly cash-generative business.

• Cash Conversion: After a temporary dip in 2022 to 57%, which management attributed to record capital investments in new manufacturing capacity and a deliberate rebuilding of inventory post-pandemic, adjusted cash conversion recovered strongly.³ It rebounded to an excellent 81% in 2023 and improved further to 87% in 2024, well ahead of guidance and demonstrating disciplined working capital management.¹ This strong recovery in cash flow, even as reported profits were under pressure, serves as a leading indicator of management’s firm operational control and the underlying health of the business.
• Balance Sheet: The balance sheet remains robust and provides significant financial flexibility. Net debt increased substantially in 2022 to fund the strategic acquisitions of Vulcanic and Durex, with the leverage ratio (Net Debt to EBITDA) peaking at a still-conservative 1.7x.¹ Strong cash generation has since been used to de-lever, with net debt falling to £666.7 million at the end of 2023 and further to £596.2 million by the end of 2024.¹ The debt-to-equity ratio stood at a manageable 84.8% at year-end 2023.⁴⁴

Returns on Capital

The Group has historically generated high returns on capital, a hallmark of its quality and competitive advantages. For 2023, the reported Return on Equity (ROE) was 16.17%.⁴⁴ The trailing-twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) was 9.59%.⁵⁰ While these are healthy returns for an industrial company, they are below the Group’s historical peaks. This reflects both the temporary pressure on profitability in 2023 and the significant increase in the capital base following the large, debt-funded acquisitions in 2022. As the profitability of the ETS segment improves and the Group continues to de-lever, these return metrics are expected to trend back towards their historically higher levels.

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Table 1: Spirax Group PLC – 5-Year Financial Summary (£ millions, except per share data)

Metric	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024
Income Statement
Revenue	1,193.4	1,344.5	1,610.6	1,682.6	1,665.2
Adjusted Operating Profit	242.5	340.3	380.2	349.1	333.9
Net Income (Statutory)	173.6	234.6	224.7	183.6	191.2
Adjusted Basic EPS (pence)	–	338.9	377.2	312.4	286.3
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1,741.4	1,863.2	2,784.9	2,708.4	2,645.0
Net Debt*	–	–	690.4	666.7	596.2
Total Equity	852.3	1,010.0	1,169.8	1,157.7	1,209.2
Cash Flow Statement
Cash from Operations	259.2	273.4	241.1	298.6	312.8
Capital Expenditure	–	–	–	(105.0)	(93.0)
Free Cash Flow	192.8	184.9	60.0	193.0	220.0
Note: Net debt figures from company reports; other data compiled from multiple sources.Sources: 1

Table 2: Spirax Group PLC – Segment Performance Analysis (2022-2024)

	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024
Steam Thermal Solutions (STS)
Revenue (£m)	866.0	910.1	867.9
Organic Revenue Growth (%)	12%	8%	1%
Adjusted Operating Profit (£m)	206.1	224.0	204.1
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)	23.8%	24.6%	23.5%
Electric Thermal Solutions (ETS)
Revenue (£m)	256.1	378.5	404.6
Organic Revenue Growth (%)	14%	2%	10%
Adjusted Operating Profit (£m)	39.9	59.2	64.7
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)	15.6%	15.6%	16.0%
Watson-Marlow (WMFTS)
Revenue (£m)	488.5	394.0	392.7
Organic Revenue Growth (%)	16%	-19%	3%
Adjusted Operating Profit (£m)	160.0	93.7	99.0
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)	32.8%	23.8%	25.2%
Group Total
Revenue (£m)	1,610.6	1,682.6	1,665.2
Organic Revenue Growth (%)	14%	-1%	4%
Adjusted Operating Profit (£m)	380.2	349.1	333.9
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)	23.6%	20.7%	20.1%
Sources: 1

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V. Growth Strategy & Capital Allocation Discipline

Stated Strategy – “Together for Growth”

Under the direction of its new executive leadership, Spirax Group has articulated its “Together for Growth” strategy, designed to build upon the Group’s historical strengths while positioning it for future opportunities.¹⁴ This strategy is not a radical departure but an evolution, focused on three core pillars:

1. Leveraging Strengths and Scale: Simplifying organizational structures to better harness the combined scale of the three businesses while preserving the critical local, direct-to-customer presence.⁴
2. Delivering More Customer Value: Augmenting the physical “walk the plant” capabilities of its sales engineers with digital tools and data analytics to “walk the data.” This aims to deepen customer insights, anticipate needs, and deliver more sophisticated solutions.⁴
3. Leading the Energy Transition: Explicitly positioning the Group to lead in industrial decarbonization by combining the expertise of its steam and electric thermal businesses to offer complete solutions for electrifying industrial heat.⁴

The Group’s overarching financial ambition is to deliver sustainable mid to high single-digit organic revenue growth and achieve mid-20s adjusted operating margins through the economic cycle.⁵²

Organic Growth Initiatives

Organic growth remains the primary engine of value creation for Spirax.

• R&D and Innovation: The Group maintains a consistent commitment to R&D, with annual spending in the range of £18-20 million in 2022-2023, equating to approximately 1.1-1.2% of sales.¹⁷ This investment is sharply focused on developing products that align with key secular trends. The innovation pipeline includes digitally connected products like wireless steam trap monitors and the next-generation GS-X range of PID controllers, which provide customers with better data and control to enhance sustainability.³² A key area of innovation is the “TargetZero” suite of decarbonization solutions—including ElectroFit (retrofit electric heaters), SteamVolt (electric boilers), and the Steam Battery (energy storage)—which were co-developed by the STS and ETS businesses to provide a clear pathway for customers to electrify steam generation.²
• Self-Generated Growth: The direct sales force model is the heart of the Group’s organic growth strategy. By embedding technical experts with customers, Spirax is able to proactively identify and solve efficiency problems, consistently generating growth well ahead of underlying industrial production.³⁵

Inorganic Growth – The Strategic Pivot to ETS

The 2022-2024 period was marked by a decisive and transformative inorganic growth strategy focused on building a world-leading Electric Thermal Solutions business.

• Acquisitions of Vulcanic and Durex Industries (2022): In the second half of 2022, Spirax completed two major acquisitions. It acquired Vulcanic, a European leader in industrial electric heating solutions, from Qualium for €261.7 million.⁵⁵ Shortly after, it acquired Durex International, a US-based specialist in custom electric thermal solutions, for $342.2 million.⁵⁵
• Strategic Rationale: These were not opportunistic purchases but a deliberate and well-executed strategy to fundamentally strengthen the ETS business.³ The acquisitions were highly complementary, providing ETS with enhanced scale, a broader technology portfolio, and a more balanced geographic footprint.³ Durex brought deep expertise and a strong, recurring revenue base with OEMs in the high-growth semiconductor sector, while Vulcanic provided leadership in the European industrial market.⁵⁷
• Long-Term Impact: These acquisitions represent a fundamental evolution of Spirax’s business model. The company is strategically deploying the robust cash flows from its mature and highly profitable steam business to build a leadership position in the high-growth industrial electrification market. This positions Spirax not merely as a defender of its legacy business but as a key enabler of the multi-decade energy transition. It allows the Group to offer customers a complete decarbonization journey—from optimizing existing steam systems to implementing a full-scale transition to electric thermal energy—making it a one-stop-shop strategic partner for industrial sustainability.
• Integration Progress: Management has consistently reported that the integration of both businesses is progressing well.² The strong 10% organic growth and margin improvement delivered by the ETS segment in 2024 provides tangible evidence that operational improvements and synergies are being successfully realized.¹⁴

Capital Allocation Framework & Shareholder Returns

Spirax Group adheres to a clear and disciplined capital allocation framework that has created significant long-term shareholder value.

1. Invest in Organic Growth: The first priority is reinvesting in the business through R&D to fuel innovation and capital expenditure to modernize and expand manufacturing capacity. Recent major capex projects include new facilities for Watson-Marlow in Devens, Massachusetts, and for Chromalox in Ogden, Utah.³
2. Value-Accretive Acquisitions: The second priority is to pursue strategic, bolt-on acquisitions that align with the Group’s strategy and meet strict financial criteria, as demonstrated by the ETS acquisitions.
3. Progressive Dividend: The third and a defining priority is the payment of a sustainably growing dividend. Spirax boasts one of the most impressive dividend track records in the UK market, having delivered 56 consecutive years of annual dividend growth.¹ This commitment was maintained even through the challenging 2023-2024 period, with increases of 5% and 3%, respectively.¹ This extraordinary record is not merely a financial statistic; it is a powerful cultural indicator of disciplined, long-term capital allocation and a deep-seated commitment to shareholder returns that has been embedded in the company for over half a century.

VI. Recent Developments, Challenges, and Management

The 2022-2024 period was one of the most dynamic in Spirax Group’s recent history, characterized by significant macroeconomic challenges, major strategic actions, and a comprehensive leadership transition.

Navigating Macroeconomic Headwinds

The Group’s resilience was tested by several concurrent headwinds:

• Biopharm Destocking: The most significant operational challenge was the severe inventory correction in the Biopharm end-market, which heavily impacted the Watson-Marlow (WMFTS) segment. Following a period of unprecedented demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, customers began aggressively destocking in the second half of 2022, a trend that intensified throughout 2023.¹ Management candidly noted that the recovery they had anticipated in H2 2023 did not materialize as customers revealed higher-than-expected excess inventory levels.⁵ However, by 2024, the company reported early signs of improving demand and a recovery in order intake, suggesting the destocking cycle had bottomed out.⁴⁷ This painful but necessary “clearing event” has likely de-risked the segment for the medium term by normalizing the inventory channel.
• Semiconductor & Industrial Slowdown: The ETS business faced a cyclical downturn in the semiconductor market in 2023, which particularly affected the newly acquired Durex and existing Thermocoax businesses.¹ A broader weakening of global industrial production also impacted the STS business, especially in China’s project-based market in 2024.⁴⁷
• Inflation and Supply Chain Pressures: In line with the broader industrial sector, Spirax navigated significant cost inflation and supply chain volatility. The Group demonstrated strong operational management by successfully implementing price increases to protect margins.³ A notable example of its proactive supply chain management was its response to the nickel price spike following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where the company worked collaboratively with 20 key foundry suppliers, flexing pricing contracts and shortening payment terms to ensure supply stability and support its partners.⁶⁰

Strategic and Leadership Transition

This period of external challenge coincided with significant internal change:

• Rebranding and Restructuring: The strategic rebranding to Spirax Group in 2024 was a key move to align the company’s identity with its evolved three-business structure.⁹ This was accompanied by the announcement of the Group’s first major restructuring program, aimed at consolidating manufacturing and streamlining the organization to deliver approximately £35 million in annualized savings, which will be reinvested to fund future organic growth.¹⁴
• Comprehensive Leadership Refresh: The Group has undergone a complete refresh of its most senior leadership roles, marking the end of a highly successful era and the beginning of a new one.

• Group CEO: Nicholas Anderson, who led the Group through a decade of exceptional growth, retired in January 2024. He was succeeded by Nimesh Patel, who had served as the Group’s CFO since 2020, ensuring continuity while bringing a fresh perspective.⁶²
• Group CFO: Following Nimesh Patel’s promotion, Louisa Burdett was appointed as the new Chief Financial Officer in July 2024. She brings a wealth of experience from senior finance roles at other major UK-listed industrial companies, including Croda International and Meggitt.⁶²
• Board Chair: Jamie Pike, the long-serving Chair, stepped down at the end of 2024. He was succeeded on January 1, 2025, by Tim Cobbold, who has extensive CEO and board experience at companies including UBM, De La Rue, and Rotork.⁶⁶

This confluence of a cyclical downturn, a major strategic pivot via acquisitions, and a complete leadership transition creates a period of heightened execution risk. However, it also provides the new leadership team with a clear mandate and opportunity to drive a strategic reset and accelerate the Group’s evolution. The next 12-24 months will be a critical inflection point as the new team executes its “Together for Growth” strategy.

Operational Excellence and Governance

• Operational Management: In response to the 2023 headwinds, management demonstrated agility by implementing early restructuring actions and cost containment measures, which helped to partially mitigate the impact on operating margins.²
• Digital Transformation: Spirax is making tangible investments in its digital capabilities to enhance operational efficiency and customer engagement. The company has launched a new global web platform using Sitecore to support complex customer journeys across 49 operating companies and 23 languages.⁶⁷ It has also implemented Oracle’s Commerce and Configure, Price, Quote (CPQ) software to streamline its B2B sales processes and empower customers with self-service capabilities.⁶⁸
• Corporate Governance: Spirax is committed to high standards of corporate governance, adhering to the 2018 UK Corporate Governance Code.⁶⁹ The Board has a well-defined structure with a clear division of responsibilities and five dedicated committees: Audit, Colleague Engagement, Nomination, Remuneration, and Risk Management.⁶⁹ The Board demonstrates a commitment to diversity, with female representation reaching 45.5% at the end of 2024, increasing to 50% in January 2025.⁶⁵

VII. Valuation Analysis

Spirax Group’s valuation has historically reflected its status as a high-quality, premium industrial business. However, the operational challenges of 2023 and a broader market rotation away from growth stocks have resulted in a significant and compelling valuation re-rating.

Historical Valuation Perspective

For much of the past decade, Spirax has traded at a substantial premium to both the broader industrial sector and its direct peers. This premium was justified by its superior growth profile, consistently high margins, defensive recurring revenue streams, and strong returns on capital.

• Historical P/E Ratio: At its peak at the end of 2021, the stock traded at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 53.7x. Throughout the 2020-2022 period, it consistently traded in a 35x to 50x range.⁷¹
• Historical EV/EBITDA: Similarly, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiple peaked at 34.5x in 2021 and averaged approximately 28x from 2020-2021.⁷³
• Recent Compression: The challenges of 2023 triggered a sharp de-rating. By year-end 2024, the P/E ratio had compressed to approximately 24-28x, and the EV/EBITDA multiple had fallen to the 14-17x range.³⁷ These multiples are significantly closer to the stock’s 5-year lows than its highs, suggesting that a great deal of negative news has been priced in.

Peer Group Valuation Benchmarking

Despite this compression, Spirax continues to trade at a premium to many of its UK-listed peers, a premium that is arguably justified by its superior financial characteristics. The current valuation is more in line with other high-quality global industrial peers.

The market appears to be valuing Spirax based on its recent, cyclically depressed earnings and is underappreciating the long-term value creation potential unlocked by its strategic pivot into electrification. The acquisitions of Vulcanic and Durex have expanded the Group’s total addressable market by over £6.6 billion, tapping into the high-growth, multi-decade trend of industrial decarbonization.⁴ As the ETS segment continues to grow and deliver on its margin improvement targets, there is significant potential for a re-rating of the stock’s valuation multiple as the market recognizes this enhanced long-term growth profile.

Valuation Synthesis

The current valuation presents a compelling opportunity for long-term investors. The premium to UK peers is warranted by Spirax’s fundamentally stronger business model, including its highly resilient recurring revenue base, consistently superior profitability, and a more robust long-term organic growth outlook. The recent de-rating has brought the valuation to a level that does not appear to fully reflect the recovery potential in the Watson-Marlow segment or the significant long-term growth opportunity in Electric Thermal Solutions. While consensus analyst price targets suggest modest near-term upside of around 9% ³⁷, these may prove conservative if the Biopharm recovery accelerates or if the benefits of the ETS integration and restructuring are delivered ahead of schedule.

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Table 3: Valuation Multiples – Peer Comparison

Company	Ticker	P/E Ratio (NTM)	EV/EBITDA (NTM)	P/B Ratio	Dividend Yield (%)
Spirax Group PLC	SPX.LSE	~28.1x	~17.7x	~4.7x	~2.3%
IMI PLC	IMI.LSE	~23.5x	~12.1x	~6.3x	~1.4%
Rotork PLC	ROR.LSE	~24.8x	~15.2x	~5.2x	~2.3%
The Weir Group PLC	WEIR.LSE	~20.2x	~13.2x	~3.6x	~1.6%
Smiths Group PLC	SMIN.LSE	~32.3x	~12.0x	~3.1x	~2.2%
Peer Average		~25.8x	~13.1x	~4.6x	~1.9%
Note: Multiples are based on the most recent available data and may fluctuate. NTM = Next Twelve Months.Sources: 37

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VIII. Risk Assessment

A comprehensive investment analysis requires a thorough evaluation of the key risks facing the company.

Operational Risks

• Cyclical End-Market Exposure: While approximately 85% of revenue is recurring, the Group is not immune to the industrial economic cycle. A severe or prolonged global industrial recession would impact both its smaller project-based sales and its core MRO business. The recent slowdowns in the semiconductor and biopharmaceutical markets demonstrate this sensitivity.¹
• Supply Chain and Inflation: The Group is exposed to disruptions in its global supply chain and volatility in raw material prices, particularly for metals like nickel. While management has a strong track record of mitigating these risks through proactive supplier management and price adjustments, extreme events could still impact production and profitability.⁶⁰

Strategic Risks

• M&A Integration Risk: The 2022 acquisitions of Vulcanic and Durex were the largest in the Group’s history. The successful integration of these businesses and the delivery of targeted revenue synergies and margin improvements are critical to the investment case. Failure to execute effectively could lead to underperformance in the ETS segment and weigh on overall Group returns.⁵⁶
• Competitive Threats: Spirax operates in a competitive environment with large, well-capitalized rivals. While its moat is strong, increased investment by competitors in steam system technology or alternative decarbonization solutions could erode market share over time.³⁷
• Technological Disruption: The long-term trend towards decarbonization could eventually lead to the displacement of traditional steam systems in some applications. The Group’s strategy to build a leading ETS business is a direct response to this risk, but the pace and nature of this technological shift remain a long-term uncertainty.

Financial Risks

• Foreign Exchange Exposure: With a significant portion of its revenue and profit generated outside the UK, the Group’s reported results in GBP are subject to currency fluctuations. A strengthening of sterling can create a material headwind to reported growth and profits, as seen in 2024.¹⁴
• Valuation Risk: The stock has historically commanded a premium valuation. If the Group fails to deliver on its growth and margin expectations, or if there is a broader market shift away from quality-growth stocks, its valuation multiple could contract further, leading to share price underperformance.

Governance & Leadership Risk

• Leadership Transition: The recent and comprehensive change in the senior leadership team (CEO, CFO, and Board Chair) introduces a period of transition. While the appointments are high-caliber and the CEO was an internal promotion, any change at this level brings a degree of execution risk as the new team implements its strategic vision.

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Table 4: Spirax Group PLC – Risk Matrix

Risk Category	Specific Risk	Potential Impact	Mitigation Factors
Operational	Severe Global Industrial Recession	Negative organic growth across all segments; pressure on profitability.	85% of revenue is recurring MRO; high diversification across defensive end-markets (Food, Pharma).
Strategic	M&A Integration Failure	Failure to achieve synergies and margin targets in ETS; impairment of goodwill.	Experienced management; strong track record of smaller acquisitions; positive early signs of operational improvement in ETS.
Strategic	Increased Competition	Market share loss; pricing pressure leading to margin erosion.	Wide competitive moat from direct sales force, brand, and global scale; continuous R&D investment.
Financial	Sustained GBP Strength	Negative impact on reported revenue and profit growth.	Geographically diverse manufacturing footprint provides a partial natural hedge; currency hedging strategies.
Financial	Valuation De-rating	Significant share price underperformance if growth expectations are not met.	Valuation has already compressed significantly from peaks; consistent delivery on long-term strategy should support premium.
Governance	Leadership Transition	Poor execution of the “Together for Growth” strategy; disruption from organizational changes.	New CEO is a seasoned internal candidate (former CFO); new CFO and Chair have extensive external experience.

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IX. Investment Thesis & Recommendation

The Bull Case

The investment thesis for Spirax Group is anchored in its position as a “best-in-class” industrial compounder with a rare combination of defensive resilience and exposure to powerful secular growth trends. The key pillars of the bull case are:

1. Wide and Durable Moat: The Group’s competitive advantage, rooted in its unparalleled direct sales force, deep technical expertise, and trusted brand, is exceptionally strong and difficult to replicate. This allows for sustained pricing power and high returns on capital.
2. Resilient Business Model: With approximately 85% of revenue tied to non-discretionary MRO spending, the Group generates highly predictable, recurring cash flows. This has enabled an extraordinary 56-year track record of uninterrupted dividend growth, providing a reliable return for shareholders through all economic cycles.
3. Secular Growth Champion: Spirax is uniquely positioned as a primary beneficiary of the multi-decade industrial decarbonization and electrification trend. Its strategic pivot to build a world-leading Electric Thermal Solutions business has significantly expanded its total addressable market and positions it as a critical partner for customers on their journey to Net Zero.
4. Attractive Valuation: Recent cyclical headwinds, now showing signs of abating, have caused the stock’s premium valuation to compress to a much more reasonable level. This presents a compelling opportunity for long-term investors to acquire a high-quality, market-leading enterprise at a discount to its historical valuation and intrinsic worth.

The Bear Case

The primary risks to the investment thesis include:

1. Premium Valuation: Despite the recent correction, the stock still trades at a premium to the broader industrial sector. A failure to execute on its growth and margin targets could leave the shares vulnerable to further de-rating.
2. Cyclical Headwinds: The recovery in the high-margin Biopharm segment may be slower or less pronounced than the market expects, which could continue to act as a drag on Group profitability in the near term.
3. Execution Risk: The successful integration of the large ETS acquisitions is paramount. Any stumbles in achieving targeted synergies and margin expansion could disappoint investors. Furthermore, the new leadership team must successfully navigate the ongoing strategic and organizational changes.

Key Catalysts

• Positive Catalysts: A faster-than-expected recovery in the Biopharm order book; clear evidence of margin expansion in the ETS segment in upcoming financial reports; the announcement of major contract wins for “TargetZero” decarbonization solutions; a recovery in global industrial production.
• Negative Catalysts: A renewed global industrial recession; signs of integration issues or margin pressure in the ETS business; increased competitive intensity from rivals targeting the industrial electrification market.

Final Recommendation

The analysis concludes that Spirax Group PLC represents a high-quality investment with a compelling long-term growth outlook. The Group’s formidable competitive advantages and resilient business model provide a strong foundation of stability and cash generation. The strategic pivot towards electrification aligns the company with one of the most powerful secular trends of our time, creating a long runway for future growth.

The recent period of operational challenges and the subsequent de-rating of the stock have created a window of opportunity. The current valuation does not appear to fully reflect the Group’s recovery potential and its enhanced long-term growth profile as a leader in industrial sustainability solutions. While near-term risks related to the economic cycle and strategy execution exist, the long-term strengths and opportunities significantly outweigh them.

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