Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Thule Group AB, a global leader in the sports and outdoor sector, renowned for its premium products under the motto “Active Life, Simplified.”.¹ The analysis covers the period from 2019 through early 2025, a timeframe characterized by an unprecedented demand surge during the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a significant market correction, demand normalization, and the initial stages of a strategic recovery.

Thule Group represents a fundamentally strong, market-leading company with a powerful brand and a proven track record of innovation. The company is currently navigating the challenging aftermath of a cyclical peak, a period marked by extensive retailer inventory destocking, margin pressure from production under-utilization, and heightened sensitivity to discretionary consumer spending. The effectiveness of the company’s strategic response—centered on aggressive product development, expansion into new growth categories such as car seats and dog transport solutions, the strategic acquisition of Quad Lock, and disciplined operational management—will be critical in determining its future trajectory.

The analysis reveals several key findings. The company experienced a financial “whiplash,” with a surge in sales and profitability in 2021, followed by a sharp contraction in 2022 and 2023 as retailers corrected bloated inventories, particularly in bike-related products.³ Despite this top-line volatility, management demonstrated strategic resilience by maintaining a high level of investment in Research & Development, which reached 6.9% of sales in fiscal year 2023, and pursuing strategic M&A to seed future growth.⁶ While gross margins have recovered to record levels, EBIT margins remain below their 2021 peak due to elevated SG&A expenses associated with an intense product launch schedule and other strategic investments.⁸ Operationally, a key focus has been on disciplined working capital management, resulting in a significant inventory reduction of nearly SEK 500 million in 2024, which surpassed internal targets and freed substantial capital.⁸

From a valuation perspective, Thule’s multiples contracted significantly during the 2022 downturn but have since recovered, reflecting market expectations of a return to normalized growth. The current valuation suggests the market assigns a premium to Thule relative to its peers, likely attributable to its formidable brand strength and market-leading positions. This report will first detail Thule’s business model and market positioning, followed by an in-depth analysis of its financial performance through the recent cycle. It will then examine management’s strategic responses and capital allocation priorities before concluding with a comprehensive risk assessment and a detailed discussion of the company’s valuation context.

Business Overview & Strategic Positioning

Thule Group has established itself as a premier global brand for consumers with active lifestyles. The company’s core business is segmented into four distinct product categories, each with unique market dynamics, competitive landscapes, and growth profiles. This structure is guided by a clear corporate strategy: to achieve and maintain market-leading positions in specialized product niches, a philosophy management describes as “Big in pockets, united by the Thule brand”.⁹ This approach allows the company to leverage its powerful brand across a diverse portfolio while focusing its product development and marketing efforts on targeted consumer segments.

Core Business Segments

1. Sport & Cargo Carriers

This is Thule’s largest and most established segment, accounting for 59% of total group sales in fiscal year 2023.6 The product portfolio is extensive, including roof racks, roof boxes, and carriers designed for transporting bicycles, water sports equipment, and winter sports gear.1 Within this category, Thule is the undisputed global market leader, a position it has cultivated over decades through product innovation and brand building.10 This segment was central to the demand volatility experienced between 2021 and 2023. The surge in popularity for cycling and local travel during the pandemic drove record sales, but this was followed by a severe downturn as the market normalized and retailers aggressively destocked bike-related products.5

2. RV Products

The second-largest segment, RV Products, contributed 19% of group sales in fiscal year 2023.6 The portfolio includes awnings, bike carriers, and tents specifically designed for recreational vehicles (RVs) and caravans.9 Thule holds a clear market-leading position in Europe, which accounts for the vast majority of the segment’s sales, and operates as a niche player in the North American market.10 Management has identified this segment as the most sensitive to the broader economic cycle, as the purchase of its products is often tied to the large capital expenditure of buying an RV.13 Recent performance has been weak, reflecting a broader downturn in the global RV industry.7

3. Juvenile & Pet Products

This segment represents a key strategic growth area for the company, accounting for 10% of sales in fiscal year 2023.6 The category includes premium strollers, multi-sport and bike trailers, child bike seats, and, more recently, a new line of dog transport solutions, including crash-tested harnesses and carriers.9 Thule is the global market leader in bike trailers and a leading global player in child bike seats.10 This segment has been a consistent source of organic growth, driven by a high pace of new product introductions and successful entry into adjacent sub-categories.11

4. Packs, Bags & Luggage

The smallest segment, representing 12% of fiscal year 2023 sales, encompasses a wide range of products including hiking backpacks, everyday-use backpacks, luggage, camera bags, and cases for consumer electronics.6 Thule has carved out a “stable, growing niche position” in this highly competitive market.10 The segment benefited from the post-pandemic recovery in global travel, which spurred demand for luggage and travel-related bags.15 A significant strategic development for this segment was the acquisition of Quad Lock in late 2024. Quad Lock is the global market leader in performance phone mounts, and its integration is expected to substantially expand the segment’s addressable market and growth potential.7

The company’s “Big in pockets” strategy is a double-edged sword. It facilitates market dominance and premium pricing power within well-defined product categories, which has historically supported strong profitability. However, this focused approach also creates concentrated risk. The 2022-2023 period starkly illustrated this vulnerability when the single, albeit large, “pocket” of bike-related products experienced a severe and rapid downturn. The “bike boom” of the pandemic created a massive surge in demand, which Thule, as the market leader, capitalized on.¹⁶ When this demand abruptly normalized, retailers were left with a significant inventory overhang.⁵ Consequently, the subsequent channel destocking had a disproportionately negative impact on Thule’s sales, causing a sharp contraction in its largest and most important segment. The strategic response to diversify into less correlated “pockets”—such as car seats, dog transport solutions, and now performance phone mounts via the Quad Lock acquisition—is a direct lesson learned from this cyclical whiplash, aimed at creating more resilient and diversified revenue streams for the future.

Geographic & Product Revenue Mix

Thule’s sales are heavily weighted towards developed markets in Europe and North America. In fiscal year 2023, the Europe & Rest of World (RoW) region was the primary revenue driver, while the Americas constituted a smaller but significant portion of the business. The downturn in 2023 was not uniform across geographies; the Americas region experienced a more severe sales decline, contracting by 22.9% on a currency-adjusted basis, compared to an 11.9% decline in Europe & RoW.⁶ This disparity was partly due to more challenging year-over-year comparisons in the Americas, which had seen particularly strong growth in the prior period, and a more pronounced inventory correction among North American retailers.⁶

The product mix has remained relatively stable, with Sport & Cargo Carriers forming the bedrock of the business. However, strategic initiatives, including both organic product development and M&A, are clearly aimed at growing the Juvenile & Pet and Packs, Bags & Luggage segments. This strategy is designed to reduce the company’s relative dependence on the more mature Sport & Cargo Carriers segment and the highly cyclical RV Products category. The acquisition of Quad Lock is the most significant step in this diversification effort to date.⁷

The following table provides a breakdown of Thule’s net sales by segment and region for the fiscal years 2022 through 2024, illustrating the recent performance trends.

Metric	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024
Net Sales by Segment (SEKm)
Sport & Cargo Carriers	6,286	5,388	5,629
% of Total Sales	62%	59%	59%
RV Products	1,825	1,735	1,717
% of Total Sales	18%	19%	18%
Juvenile & Pet Products	1,115	913	1,240
% of Total Sales	11%	10%	13%
Packs, Bags & Luggage	912	1,096	859
% of Total Sales	9%	12%	9%
Quad Lock	–	–	95
% of Total Sales	–	–	1%
Total Net Sales (SEKm)	10,138	9,132	9,541
Net Sales by Region (SEKm)
Europe & RoW	7,401	6,682	7,072
FX-Adj. Growth %	-12.7% (Q4)	-11.9%	+4.7% (Organic)
Americas	2,737	2,450	2,469
FX-Adj. Growth %	-33.7% (Q4)	-22.9%	+0.1% (Organic)
Note: Segment sales for 2022 and 2023 are derived from reported sales shares.6 2024 segment data is derived from reported sales shares and growth rates. Regional data is from company reports.6 Growth rates are for the full year unless otherwise specified.

Go-to-Market Strategy & Distribution

Thule’s primary route to market is through a vast global network of retailers. This network is diverse, including large, multi-national retail chains, specialized independent dealers, and automotive accessory fitters.¹¹ In addition to its retail channels, the company operates an Original Equipment (OE) business, supplying products directly to manufacturers, which is particularly significant in the RV segment where Thule’s awnings and bike racks are often factory-installed.¹¹

A key strategic initiative in recent years has been the expansion of the company’s Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channel via its own website, thule.com.¹⁸ While still representing a small portion of total sales, the DTC channel is a consistent area of growth and a strategic priority.¹¹ In 2024 alone, the company launched its DTC platform in five new European markets.⁸ This initiative serves multiple purposes: it allows Thule to capture higher margins, gain direct access to consumer data and insights, and maintain complete control over its premium brand presentation and customer experience.⁸

Seasonality

Thule’s business is subject to distinct seasonal patterns that influence its quarterly financial performance. The second quarter, spanning from April to June, is consistently the company’s strongest sales period.⁶ This aligns with the peak spring and summer seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, when consumer demand for bike carriers, roof boxes, and other outdoor equipment is at its highest.

Conversely, the fourth quarter, from October to December, is historically the company’s smallest in terms of revenue.¹¹ During this period, sales of high-volume, bike-related products naturally decline, while the sales mix shifts towards a higher proportion of RV products.¹¹ This seasonality has a pronounced effect on quarterly profitability. The lower sales volume in the fourth quarter means that fixed costs, such as manufacturing overhead and SG&A, are spread over a smaller revenue base. This operational deleveraging can lead to significantly compressed margins, as was starkly demonstrated in the fourth quarter of 2022, when the EBIT margin fell to just 0.2%.⁶ Understanding this seasonal pattern is critical to accurately interpreting the company’s quarterly financial results.

Industry Analysis & Competitive Landscape

Thule operates within the large and dynamic global outdoor recreation market. The industry is supported by powerful, long-term secular trends, though it is also subject to cyclical fluctuations in consumer spending. Thule has carved out a strong competitive position within this market, leveraging a combination of brand strength, innovation, and an extensive distribution network to build a defensible economic moat.

Market Dynamics & Growth Drivers

The global outdoor recreation market represents a significant and growing segment of the consumer economy. One market research report valued the industry at USD 482.1 billion in 2023, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% through 2030.¹⁹ In the United States, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the outdoor recreation economy generated $1.2 trillion in economic output in 2023, growing at a faster rate than the overall U.S. economy.²⁰

This robust growth is underpinned by several key drivers:

• Health and Wellness: A profound and enduring consumer trend is the increasing focus on physical and mental well-being, with outdoor activities seen as a primary means to achieve a healthier, more active lifestyle.¹⁹
• Experiential Consumption: Consumers, particularly younger generations like Millennials and Gen Z, are increasingly prioritizing experiences over material possessions. This has fueled growth in adventure tourism and local “staycations,” trends that were solidified during the pandemic and continue to support demand for outdoor gear.¹⁹
• Favorable Demographics: The participant base for outdoor activities is expanding. An aging but healthier and more active older population is participating in outdoor recreation at higher rates than in the past.²³ At the same time, the market is becoming more diverse, with increased participation among previously underrepresented groups.²⁶

While the long-term outlook is positive, the industry is currently navigating a period of normalization following the “abnormal expansion” experienced in 2020 and 2021.²⁷ This has led to widespread inventory overhangs at the retail level and a more promotional pricing environment as companies work to clear excess stock.²⁷

Competitive Positioning & Moats

Thule’s competitive position is not built on a single attribute but on a synergistic combination of factors that create a virtuous cycle, reinforcing its market leadership.

• Brand Strength: The company’s most significant competitive advantage is its globally recognized premium brand. The Thule name is synonymous with quality, safety, durability, and a distinct Scandinavian design aesthetic.²⁸ The core Thule brand accounted for 88% of the group’s sales in 2021, demonstrating its central importance.²⁹ This powerful brand equity allows the company to command premium prices and fosters a high degree of customer loyalty.
• Market Leadership and Scale: Thule holds the number one market position in its core categories of Sport & Cargo Carriers and European RV Products. It is also a global leader in important growth categories like bike trailers and child bike seats.¹⁰ This leadership position provides significant scale advantages in manufacturing, sourcing, and distribution, creating efficiencies that smaller competitors cannot easily match.
• Innovation and R&D: Thule maintains its market leadership through a relentless focus on product development. The company consistently invests a significant portion of its revenue in R&D, with spending reaching 6.9% of sales in 2023.⁶ This investment fuels a continuous pipeline of new and updated products, which drives organic growth, attracts consumers, and reinforces the brand’s premium, innovative image. The company’s efforts were recognized in 2024 with a record 23 design awards.⁸
• Distribution Network: Over many decades, Thule has cultivated deep, long-standing relationships with a vast global network of retailers.²⁹ This extensive distribution footprint ensures that its products are widely available to consumers and represents a formidable barrier to entry for new competitors seeking to gain shelf space and market access.

The interplay of these factors creates a self-reinforcing loop. Consistent investment in R&D leads to a pipeline of innovative, award-winning products.⁸ These high-quality, premium products enhance the Thule brand’s reputation.²⁸ The strong brand and desirable product portfolio, in turn, ensure that Thule can secure and maintain prime placement within its extensive global retail network.²⁹ This broad distribution drives sales volume and market share, and the resulting scale and profitability fund the next wave of R&D investment, restarting the cycle. While a smaller competitor might excel in a single product category or a specific geographic region, they typically lack the scale, brand halo, and global distribution to effectively challenge Thule across its entire portfolio.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive environment for Thule is highly fragmented and varies significantly by product category and geography. Thule’s unique position stems from its ability to compete and lead across multiple categories on a global scale, a feat few, if any, of its competitors have achieved.¹⁰

• Sport & Cargo Carriers: Thule’s primary global competitor in this segment is Yakima. Beyond Yakima, the competition consists mainly of smaller, regional players that have strong positions in their home markets but lack Thule’s global reach. Examples include Atera and Uebler in Germany, Rhino Racks in Australia, and Küat in the North American bike rack market.³¹
• RV Products: In the crucial European market, Thule’s main competitor is the Italian family-owned company Fiamma, which offers a similar product range. The larger, publicly listed Swedish company Dometic Group is a major sub-supplier to the RV industry but competes with Thule only in a limited selection of products, such as awnings and tents.³¹
• Juvenile & Pet: In this growth segment, Thule competes with a mix of specialized players and larger, established children’s goods companies. In bike trailers, key competitors include Burley in North America and Croozer in Europe. In the broader stroller and car seat categories, Thule faces competition from well-known brands such as Britax-Römer, Cybex (part of Goodbaby International), Bugaboo, and UppBaby.³¹
• Packs, Bags & Luggage: This is the most fragmented and competitive segment. Thule competes against a vast array of companies, from global luggage giants like Samsonite and specialized backpack manufacturers like Osprey to major outdoor apparel brands such as The North Face and Patagonia, which have extensive bag offerings.³¹

Impact of E-commerce

The rise of e-commerce is a transformative force in the outdoor recreation industry. It provides a convenient and powerful platform for consumers to research, compare, and purchase products, significantly expanding the market’s reach.¹⁹ The trend towards online shopping accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic and has become an integral part of the consumer journey.¹⁹ For Thule, this trend presents both an opportunity and a strategic imperative. The company benefits from the growth of its retail partners’ online sales channels. Simultaneously, it is pursuing a strategic expansion of its own DTC channel, thule.com. This direct channel not only offers the potential for higher margins but also provides invaluable direct access to consumer data and allows for precise control over the brand’s premium positioning and messaging.⁸

Financial Performance & Analysis (2019-2024)

The period between 2019 and 2024 was one of unprecedented volatility for Thule Group, encompassing a full business cycle of steady growth, a pandemic-induced demand explosion, a sharp market correction, and the beginnings of a recovery. A detailed analysis of the company’s financial metrics during this time reveals the magnitude of these swings and highlights the underlying resilience of its business model.

Revenue Growth Trends

Thule’s top-line performance over the past five years tells a clear story of this cycle.

• Pre-Pandemic (2019): The company entered the period with a solid foundation, reporting net sales of SEK 7,038 million, representing modest but steady currency-adjusted growth of 3.9%.¹²
• Pandemic Boom (2020-2021): The global shift towards outdoor activities and local “staycations” during the pandemic acted as a powerful tailwind. Sales grew by a strong 11.2% in 2020 to SEK 7,828 million.³³ This growth then accelerated dramatically in 2021, with sales surging by 32.7% to a record high of SEK 10,386 million.³
• Normalization and Correction (2022-2023): As pandemic-era behaviors unwound and supply chains caught up, the market underwent a severe correction. Sales declined by 2.4% in 2022 to SEK 10,138 million, followed by a more significant 9.9% drop in 2023 to SEK 9,132 million.⁶ The underlying decline was even more pronounced when adjusting for currency effects, with sales falling 9.7% in 2022 and 15.2% in 2023.¹ This downturn was driven primarily by a massive inventory destocking cycle among retailers, particularly in the Americas (which saw a 22.9% FX-adjusted sales decline in 2023) and across all bike-related product categories.⁵
• Recovery (2024): The business returned to growth in 2024, with sales increasing by 4.5% to SEK 9,541 million. This recovery was driven by 3.5% organic growth from new product introductions and a stabilizing market, supplemented by a 1.2% contribution from the acquisition of Quad Lock.⁷

Gross Margin Evolution

Despite the significant top-line volatility, Thule’s gross margins have demonstrated remarkable resilience, underscoring the company’s strong brand and pricing power.

• 2019-2021: During the period of stable growth and the subsequent boom, gross margins remained robust, fluctuating in a healthy range between 40.1% and 41.3%.³
• 2022 Pressure: The gross margin experienced a notable dip to 38.1% in 2022.³ This compression was the result of a confluence of negative factors: lower production volumes led to the under-absorption of fixed manufacturing costs, input costs for raw materials and freight remained elevated, and the sales mix shifted towards lower-margin products.¹⁵
• 2023-2024 Recovery: As these pressures began to ease, margins staged a strong recovery. The gross margin improved to 40.9% in 2023 and reached an “all-time-high” of 42.7% in 2024.⁶ This impressive rebound was attributed to a more favorable product mix, the benefits of increased production volumes, and lower raw material costs.⁷

EBITDA & EBIT Margins

Operating margins have followed the cyclical pattern of sales, amplified by the effects of operational leverage and strategic spending decisions.

• EBIT Margin Peak: The EBIT margin reached a record 22.5% in 2021, a year when high sales volumes allowed the company to maximize the efficiency of its fixed cost base.³
• Margin Compression (2022-2023): As sales declined, the EBIT margin compressed significantly, falling to 16.8% in 2022 and further to 16.5% in 2023.⁵ This was driven by the lower gross margins and, crucially, by a strategic decision to maintain high levels of SG&A spending, particularly in R&D, even as revenues were falling. This led to SG&A increasing as a percentage of sales, creating negative operating leverage.⁵
• Stabilization (2024): With the return of top-line growth, the adjusted EBIT margin began to recover, improving to 17.0% in 2024.⁷ This indicates that positive operational leverage is returning, although margins remain below the 2021 peak due to the sustained high level of strategic investment in product development and marketing.
• EBITDA: The company’s EBITDA followed a similar trajectory, peaking at SEK 2,418 million in 2021, reaching a trough of SEK 1,702 million in 2023, and recovering to SEK 1,815 million in 2024.³⁵

Working Capital & Cash Flow

The management of working capital, particularly inventory, was a central theme of the 2022-2024 period and had a profound impact on the company’s cash flow.

• The Inventory Challenge: As demand fell sharply in the second half of 2022, inventory levels swelled. Operating working capital (OWC) as a percentage of sales ballooned from a manageable 22.4% at the end of 2021 to a burdensome 32.3% by the end of 2022.¹⁵ This was driven almost entirely by a surge in inventory from SEK 2.5 billion to over SEK 3.1 billion as production could not be adjusted quickly enough to match the sudden drop in retailer orders.¹⁵
• The Inventory Correction: In response, management made inventory reduction a top operational priority. This disciplined focus yielded significant results. In 2023, inventory was reduced by SEK 801 million.⁶ This was followed by a further reduction of approximately SEK 500 million in 2024, which exceeded the company’s internal target of SEK 200 million. Over the two-year period, this initiative successfully freed up SEK 1.2 billion in capital that had been tied up in inventory.⁷
• The Cash Flow Impact: The inventory build-up in 2022 severely constrained cash flow, with cash flow from operating activities falling from SEK 1,128 million in 2021 to just SEK 616 million in 2022.¹⁷ However, the subsequent successful inventory reduction drove a powerful recovery in cash generation. Operating cash flow rebounded to a record SEK 1,850 million in 2023 and reached an even higher SEK 2,310 million in 2024.¹

The dramatic downturn in 2022-2023 was not primarily a crisis of end-consumer demand for Thule’s products, but rather an inventory crisis within its sales channels. The classic “bullwhip effect” saw retailers, who had over-ordered in anticipation of continued boom times, abruptly halt new orders to clear their own stock.⁵ This caused Thule’s sales to plummet. The company’s ability to generate record operating cash flow in 2023 and 2024, despite sales remaining below their 2021 peak, is the strongest evidence of its underlying operational health. This performance demonstrates management’s effectiveness in correcting the inventory imbalance and highlights that the core business remains highly cash-generative once the one-time channel overhang is cleared. The cash flow performance during this period serves as a more reliable indicator of the company’s fundamental health than the more volatile reported earnings.

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

ROIC has fluctuated in line with the earnings cycle. Data from one source indicates that ROIC stood at 12.44% in 2022, a decline from higher levels in the preceding years.³⁷ Another source shows Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) at 13.1% in the most recent year, down significantly from 25.2% three years prior, a period which aligns with the 2021 profitability peak.³⁸ This decline is a direct and expected consequence of lower operating income combined with an expanded capital base, which was temporarily inflated by the high levels of working capital. As profitability continues to recover and working capital normalizes, ROIC is expected to improve.

The following table provides a summary of Thule Group’s key financial metrics from fiscal year 2019 through 2024.

Metric (SEKm, unless stated)	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024
Net Sales	7,038	7,828	10,386	10,138	9,132	9,541
FX-Adj. Growth %	3.9%	13.1%	37.7%	-9.7%	-15.2%	+4.7%
Gross Profit	2,829	3,229	4,160	3,859	3,737	4,074
Gross Margin %	40.2%	41.3%	40.1%	38.1%	40.9%	42.7%
EBIT	1,195	1,591	2,340	1,706	1,505	1,522
EBIT Margin %	17.0%	20.3%	22.5%	16.8%	16.5%	15.9%
Adjusted EBIT	1,245	1,593	2,341	1,706	1,505	1,622
Adjusted EBIT Margin %	17.7%	20.3%	22.5%	16.8%	16.5%	17.0%
Net Income	883	1,166	1,790	1,275	1,099	1,122
EPS (Diluted, SEK)	8.56	11.21	16.95	12.12	10.44	10.59
Operating Cash Flow	1,030	1,614	1,128	616	1,850	2,310
Inventory	1,092	1,172	2,510	3,129	2,300	1,808
Net Debt	2,119	384	1,467	2,868	2,006	3,961
Leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA)	1.5x	0.2x	0.6x	1.5x	1.1x	2.2x
Sources:.1 Note: Adjusted EBIT for 2019 and 2020 are Underlying EBIT. 2024 Adjusted EBIT excludes SEK 100m in transaction costs.

Navigating Headwinds: The Post-Pandemic Correction (2022-2024)

The period from mid-2022 through 2023 was one of the most challenging in Thule’s recent history. The company had to navigate a complex set of headwinds, including a rapid normalization of consumer demand, significant supply chain imbalances, inflationary pressures, and foreign exchange volatility. An examination of management’s response during this period provides critical context for the company’s operational capabilities and strategic priorities.

Demand Normalization & Inventory Management

The central challenge confronting Thule was the abrupt end of the pandemic-driven demand boom. The core of the issue was a “sharp slowdown in sales of bike-related products,” as retailers, who had placed “excessively large pre-season orders,” were suddenly faced with slowing consumer offtake and bloated inventories.⁵ This retailer destocking was the primary catalyst for the steep decline in Thule’s sales, particularly in the second half of 2022, which saw a 26% year-over-year sales drop.⁵ The problem was most acute in the North American market and within the company’s largest segment, Sport & Cargo Carriers.⁶

Management’s response was decisive and focused. Recognizing that its own inventory levels were also unsustainably high, the company reduced its production staffing to the lowest level in five years at the start of 2023.¹⁵ The operational focus shifted from maximizing output to aggressively selling down existing inventory. This strategy, while painful for short-term revenue and profitability, proved highly effective from a cash management perspective, leading to the record cash flow generation seen in 2023 and 2024.⁶

Margin Pressure Analysis

During this period, Thule’s profitability came under pressure from multiple angles.

• Inflation: The company faced a challenging cost environment in 2022, with high prices for key raw materials like plastic, aluminum, and steel, as well as elevated freight and logistics costs. These inflationary pressures were a direct headwind to gross margins.¹⁵
• Operational Deleveraging: The sharp decline in sales volumes had a significant negative impact on manufacturing efficiency. With factories operating well below capacity, the “cost of unutilized production capacity” became a major drag on both gross and EBIT margins, particularly in the second half of 2022 and into 2023.⁵
• Strategic Investment: A critical element of the margin story was a conscious strategic decision by management. While sales were falling, the company chose not to cut back on its long-term growth engine: product development. R&D spending as a percentage of sales actually increased, rising from 4.6% in 2021 to 6.0% in 2022 and a peak of 6.9% in 2023.⁵ This decision to protect and even accelerate investment in innovation, while other costs were being managed, further pressured short-term EBIT margins. It was, however, a clear choice to prioritize future growth over short-term profitability.⁵
• Foreign Exchange (FX): As a global company reporting in Swedish Krona, Thule has significant exposure to currency movements, particularly the EUR/SEK exchange rate.⁴⁰ During the downturn, currency effects were complex. In 2022, a weaker Krona provided a tailwind to reported sales, adding 7.3 percentage points to the reported growth rate.¹⁷ However, the impact on the underlying operating margin was negative, indicating that the currency movements were unfavorable from a cost perspective.¹⁷

This period highlights a crucial strategic trade-off made by Thule’s management. They chose to sacrifice short-term EBIT margin to protect and nurture the company’s long-term growth drivers. The decision to maintain an aggressive R&D budget while sales were contracting underscores a deep-seated commitment to the company’s “product is king” philosophy. This approach was based on the conviction that innovation is the most effective way to emerge stronger from a cyclical trough. This strategy appears to have been validated by the return to growth in 2024, which management explicitly attributes to the success of the many new products launched as a direct result of this sustained investment.⁷

Restructuring & Cost Control

While R&D spending was ring-fenced, the company did implement cost control measures in other areas. Administrative expenses were actively managed, with a reduction of SEK 14 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.⁶ More significantly, in the second quarter of 2024, the company initiated a restructuring of its North American operations, which resulted in a one-time cost of SEK 31 million.⁹ This action was a direct response to the persistent weakness and challenges observed in the U.S. market.¹¹

Growth Strategy & Capital Allocation

With the inventory correction largely complete and the market stabilizing, Thule Group’s focus has shifted back to executing its long-term growth strategy. The strategy is multi-faceted, relying on a combination of strong organic growth levers, complemented by strategic M&A, and supported by a disciplined capital allocation framework that balances reinvestment for growth with returns to shareholders.

Management’s Strategic Priorities

For 2025 and beyond, management has articulated four clear strategic priorities that will guide its actions and investments ⁸:

1. Continue the high pace of new product launches: Reinforce market leadership in core categories through continuous innovation.
2. Scale up new categories: Successfully grow the recently launched dog transportation and child car seat lines, and integrate the newly acquired performance phone mount business.
3. Increase consumer visibility and DTC: Enhance brand presence and build direct relationships with consumers through marketing and the expansion of the thule.com e-commerce platform.
4. Improve supply chain efficiency: Drive further operational improvements and efficiencies to fund future growth initiatives.

Organic Growth Levers

Organic growth remains the cornerstone of Thule’s strategy, driven by three primary levers:

• Product Innovation: This is the company’s primary growth engine. Thule’s plan involves a dual approach: launching new generations of its best-selling, high-volume products (such as the Thule Motion roof box and the Thule Chariot multi-sport trailer) while also introducing entirely new, category-defining innovations (like the Thule Outset, the world’s first tow bar-mounted tent).⁴¹ The objective is to leverage premium, innovative products to drive growth and take market share, even in challenging macroeconomic environments.¹¹
• New Category Expansion: A key element of the strategy is to apply Thule’s brand and product development expertise to enter new, adjacent product categories. The company has recently made significant moves into child car seats and a comprehensive range of dog transportation solutions.⁸ These entries expand Thule’s total addressable market and diversify its revenue streams away from its traditional core categories.
• Geographic Expansion: While Thule is well-established in Europe and North America, opportunities for growth remain. The company has seen continued strong growth in emerging markets like Brazil.¹¹ Furthermore, the expansion of its DTC e-commerce platform into new countries, such as the Czech Republic and Poland, represents another vector for geographic growth, allowing Thule to enter markets where it may have a less developed retail presence.

M&A Strategy

Thule employs a disciplined M&A strategy to complement its organic growth initiatives. Historically, this has involved smaller, bolt-on acquisitions designed to provide entry into new product niches. Notable past examples include the acquisition of Tepui, a leader in rooftop tents, in 2018, and Denver Outfitters, a niche manufacturer of fishing rod vaults, in 2019.¹²

The acquisition of Quad Lock in December 2024 for an enterprise value of approximately SEK 2.4 billion represents a significant and strategically important evolution of this approach.⁷ Quad Lock is the global market leader in the high-growth, high-margin category of performance phone mounts for active users. This acquisition does more than just add a new product line; it brings a successful, digitally native brand with a strong DTC business model into the Thule Group portfolio. This move signals a subtle but important shift in Thule’s M&A focus. It is not just about acquiring a physical product, but also about acquiring a business with a different, more modern go-to-market strategy. The expertise and capabilities in e-commerce, digital marketing, and direct consumer engagement that Quad Lock possesses could be leveraged across the broader Thule Group, potentially accelerating the company’s own digital transformation and DTC ambitions.

Capital Allocation

Thule’s capital allocation policy is clear and prioritizes a balance between reinvesting for future growth and providing consistent returns to shareholders.

• Reinvestment for Growth: The company’s first priority is to allocate capital to opportunities that can drive long-term value creation. This is evident in the consistently high R&D spending, which is central to the organic growth strategy.⁶ It is also reflected in capital expenditures for expanding and upgrading production and R&D facilities, such as the new global development center in Hillerstorp, Sweden.¹⁶ A recently announced SEK 450 million investment to automate the company’s warehouse in Poland, which is expected to generate SEK 75 million in annual EBIT savings from 2028, is another example of this focus.²⁸ Finally, strategic M&A, such as the Quad Lock acquisition, represents another key use of capital for growth.⁷
• Shareholder Returns: Thule is committed to returning capital to its shareholders, primarily through dividends. The company has a formal dividend policy that targets a payout of at least 75% of net profit.⁴⁴ This policy has been consistently applied. Despite the sharp drop in earnings in 2022, the dividend was maintained at SEK 9.20 per share, and for 2023, it was increased to SEK 9.50 per share, signaling management’s confidence in the company’s long-term prospects.¹ For 2024, the Board has proposed a dividend of SEK 8.30 per share.⁷ This commitment to a high payout ratio provides a significant and reliable return of capital to shareholders.

Balance Sheet, Governance, and Risk Assessment

A thorough analysis of Thule Group requires an examination of its balance sheet strength, the quality of its corporate governance, and a comprehensive assessment of the key risks inherent in its business.

Balance Sheet & Capital Structure

Thule’s capital structure has been actively managed through the recent period of volatility.

• Debt and Leverage: Net debt, which stood at a modest SEK 1.47 billion at the end of the boom year 2021, increased significantly to SEK 2.87 billion by year-end 2022.¹⁷ This increase was a direct result of the inventory build-up, which consumed cash and required greater utilization of credit facilities. Through the strong cash flow generation in 2023, net debt was successfully reduced to SEK 2.0 billion by the end of that year.⁴¹ The acquisition of Quad Lock in late 2024 was primarily debt-financed, causing net debt to increase to SEK 3.96 billion at year-end 2024.⁷
• The company’s leverage ratio, as measured by Net Debt to LTM EBITDA, has mirrored this trend. It rose from a low of 0.6x at the end of 2021 to 1.5x at the end of 2022, before improving to 1.1x at the end of 2023.³ Following the Quad Lock acquisition, the leverage ratio stood at 2.2x at year-end 2024 (or 1.8x on a pro-forma basis including Quad Lock’s full-year EBITDA). While this is an elevated level for the company, it remains manageable, particularly given its strong cash-generating capabilities.
• Liquidity: Thule maintains a centralized finance department responsible for managing liquidity, interest rate, and currency risks in accordance with a board-approved finance policy.⁴⁰ The company utilizes credit facilities and continuously monitors its liquidity position through rolling forecasts to ensure it can meet its payment commitments.⁴⁰ The powerful operating cash flow generated in 2023 and 2024, even during a period of sub-peak sales, demonstrates a healthy underlying liquidity profile.¹

Management Quality & Corporate Governance

Thule appears to adhere to strong corporate governance practices.

• Management and Board: The Board of Directors consists of seven members, chaired by Hans Eckerström. In line with best practices for governance, no member of the executive Group Management team sits on the board, ensuring a clear separation of oversight and management responsibilities.⁴⁵ The company appointed a new CEO, Mattias Ankarberg, who took the helm in August 2023.¹⁵
• Insider Ownership: While aggregate insider ownership figures are not provided, public filings show that insiders are active in the company’s shares. For example, board member Anders Jensen recently made a purchase of the company’s stock.⁴⁷ Such purchases can be interpreted as a signal of insiders’ confidence in the company’s future prospects. The former CEO, Magnus Welander, continues to hold his significant stake in the company through a personal investment vehicle.⁴⁸
• Executive Compensation: The company’s remuneration policies are designed to align the interests of senior executives with those of shareholders. Variable cash remuneration (bonuses) for the executive team is explicitly linked to the achievement of pre-defined financial targets, including EBIT development and sales growth, as well as sustainability goals.⁴⁹

Comprehensive Risk Profile

Thule’s operations are exposed to a range of risks that could impact its financial performance. These can be categorized as follows:

• Business and Market Risks:

• Cyclicality and Consumer Spending: As a provider of premium, non-essential consumer durables, Thule’s sales are inherently sensitive to the broader economic cycle, consumer confidence, and levels of disposable income. An economic downturn would likely lead to reduced demand for its products.¹³
• Weather Dependency: A significant portion of Thule’s product portfolio is designed for seasonal outdoor activities. Unfavorable weather patterns, such as a cold and wet summer or a winter with little snow, can negatively impact sales in key seasons.
• Competition and Trend Risk: The consumer goods market is dynamic. Thule’s continued success depends on its ability to effectively anticipate and respond to evolving consumer trends in sports, outdoor activities, and travel. A failure to innovate or a misjudgment of market trends could lead to a loss of market share.
• Operational Risks:

• Supply Chain and Sourcing: Thule relies on a global network of approximately 750 suppliers, primarily located in Europe, Asia, and North America.³⁹ The company is exposed to risks of disruption in this supply chain, whether from logistical bottlenecks, geopolitical events, or the financial or operational failure of a key supplier. Such disruptions could adversely impact production schedules and the ability to meet customer demand.³⁹
• Commodity Price Volatility: The manufacturing of Thule’s products requires significant quantities of plastic, aluminum, and steel. The company is therefore exposed to price fluctuations in these key commodities, which can impact its gross margins.³⁹
• Trade Tariffs and Geopolitics: As a company with a global manufacturing footprint and sales in 138 markets, Thule is exposed to the risk of international trade disputes and the imposition of tariffs, which can increase costs and disrupt the flow of goods.¹²
• Financial Risks:

• Currency Risk: With a significant portion of its sales and costs denominated in currencies other than the Swedish Krona (primarily the Euro and US Dollar), Thule is exposed to both transaction risk (on foreign currency cash flows) and translation risk (on the value of foreign assets and liabilities when converted to SEK). The company actively manages this risk through hedging programs.⁴⁰
• Interest Rate Risk: As a company that utilizes debt financing, Thule is exposed to the risk that increases in market interest rates will raise its borrowing costs.⁴⁰

Valuation Context

Assessing the valuation of a cyclical company like Thule Group requires looking beyond a single point-in-time multiple and considering its valuation through the lens of the business cycle. The company’s valuation has been highly dynamic over the past five years, reflecting the market’s shifting expectations for growth and profitability.

Historical & Peer Valuation Multiples

Thule’s valuation multiples have tracked its cyclical performance, compressing during the downturn and expanding during the recovery.

• Historical Range: The company’s trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio provides a clear illustration of this volatility. It reached a peak of 31.8x at the end of the boom year 2021, collapsed to a trough of 15.8x at the end of 2022 as the market priced in the downturn, and subsequently recovered to 31.1x by the end of 2024 as growth returned.⁵¹ The Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple followed a nearly identical path, peaking at 23.3x at year-end 2021, falling to a low of 12.5x at year-end 2022, and recovering to 21.0x by year-end 2024.⁵²
• Current Multiples: As of mid-2025, the company’s trailing EV/EBITDA multiple is in the range of 17.7x to 18.3x, with a trailing P/E ratio of approximately 28x and a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of around 3.6x.⁵¹

The dramatic swing in Thule’s valuation multiples from 2021 to 2022 and back up through 2024 serves as a clear case study in how markets price cyclical consumer durables companies. The valuation acted as a forward-looking indicator, with multiples compressing well before the full extent of the earnings decline was reported, and then beginning to expand in anticipation of a recovery that was not yet fully reflected in the financial results. In 2021, when sales and earnings were at record highs, the EV/EBITDA multiple was also at its peak of 23.3x, as the market extrapolated strong performance into the future.³ Throughout 2022, as evidence of the inventory glut and demand normalization emerged, the stock price and valuation multiple contracted sharply, reaching a low of 12.5x EV/EBITDA by year-end.⁵³ In 2023, while reported earnings remained weak, the company was generating massive cash flow from its inventory liquidation.⁶ The market began to look past the trough, and the multiple expanded significantly to 19.0x.⁵³ By 2024, with growth returning, the multiple expanded further to 21.0x.⁵³ This pattern demonstrates that for a company like Thule, analyzing the valuation multiple’s movement

through the cycle provides a much richer context for understanding market expectations than a static, point-in-time analysis.

Analysis of Valuation Premium/Discount

Thule has historically traded, and continues to trade, at a valuation premium to many of its peers in the broader consumer durables and recreation products space. This is evident in a comparison of key multiples.

Company	Market Cap	EV/LTM EBITDA	LTM P/E	P/B	LTM EBIT Margin %
Thule Group AB	SEK 30.4B	17.7x	28.1x	3.6x	17.0%
Dometic Group AB	SEK 22.5B	10.9x	23.5x	1.4x	8.8%
Shimano Inc	JPY 1.4T	10.1x	19.5x	1.7x	14.5%
Brunswick Corp	USD 3.8B	7.1x	10.5x	2.0x	9.5%
MIPS AB	SEK 27.5B	55.9x	76.2x	10.2x	46.1%
Note: Data is compiled from multiple sources as of mid-2025 and is intended for comparative purposes.51 Market data is dynamic.

The data suggests a clear valuation premium for Thule over direct competitors like Dometic and broader recreation peers like Shimano and Brunswick. This premium is likely justified by a combination of factors, including Thule’s superior brand strength, its market-leading positions in its core niches, its consistent track record of innovation, and its historically strong profitability and returns on capital (outside of the recent cyclical trough). The market appears to be valuing Thule as a higher-quality business within its sector, pricing it based on these qualitative attributes and its potential to return to peak performance levels.

Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) Considerations

Given the diverse nature of Thule’s four business segments, a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation framework could provide additional perspective. Each segment has a different growth profile, margin structure, and competitive intensity, which could warrant different valuation multiples. For example, the mature, highly profitable, and market-dominant Sport & Cargo Carriers business might be valued as a stable cash cow. The higher-growth Juvenile & Pet and Packs, Bags & Luggage segments might command higher multiples, reflecting their expansion potential. The highly cyclical RV Products business would likely be assigned a lower multiple to account for its volatility. The newly acquired Quad Lock business, as a high-growth, high-margin, digitally native entity, would almost certainly warrant the highest multiple of all the segments.

Forward-Looking Considerations & Key Questions

Looking ahead, the investment case for Thule Group hinges on the interplay between long-term industry trends, the company’s strategic execution, and the broader macroeconomic environment. Several key questions will be critical in shaping the company’s future performance.

Sustainability of Outdoor Recreation Trends

The long-term outlook for the outdoor recreation industry appears favorable, supported by structural tailwinds. The participant base for outdoor activities in the U.S. grew to a record 168.1 million in 2022, suggesting that many of the new participants who discovered outdoor activities during the pandemic have been retained.²⁶ Enduring trends such as the focus on health and wellness, the growth of adventure tourism, and an aging but more active population provide a solid foundation for sustained industry growth.¹⁹

However, there are nuances to consider. While the number of participants has grown, the average frequency of participation has been in a long-term decline, falling from 84.6 outings per participant in 2013 to 71.8 in 2022.²⁶ This suggests that while the market is wider, the average participant may be less intensely engaged. The sustainability of the elevated spending levels seen post-pandemic, particularly in the face of persistent inflation and higher interest rates, remains a key uncertainty for the industry.

Answering Key Questions

1. How defensible is Thule’s market position?

Thule’s market position in its core categories is highly defensible. The defensibility is not derived from a single factor but from the powerful synergy of its premium brand, extensive global distribution network, and a continuous pipeline of innovation. This combination creates a formidable competitive moat that is difficult for smaller, regional, or single-category competitors to overcome. The primary long-term threat is not from a specific competitor but rather from a potential erosion of its brand premium due to a failure to innovate or a significant quality misstep.

2. What is the company’s ability to maintain pricing power?

The company’s ability to maintain pricing power appears strong. The rapid recovery of its gross margin to record levels in 2024, during a period of ongoing cost inflation, is the most compelling evidence of this.8 This ability is a direct function of its premium brand positioning. Consumers are willing to pay more for the Thule brand due to its reputation for quality, safety, and design, which allows the company to pass on increased costs and protect its profitability.

3. How effectively has management navigated the post-COVID demand normalization?

From an operational perspective, management has navigated the normalization period very effectively. The sales decline in 2022-2023 was severe but was largely driven by an external channel inventory issue rather than a collapse in end-consumer demand. Management’s swift action to reduce production, its disciplined focus on liquidating the company’s own inventory, and its ability to generate record levels of operating cash flow during this period demonstrate strong operational control and execution. Furthermore, the strategic decision to protect R&D spending through the downturn appears to have been a prudent long-term choice that is now fueling the recovery.

4. What is the sustainability of current margins?

The record 42.7% gross margin achieved in 2024 may be difficult to sustain consistently, as it benefited from a favorable alignment of product mix and lower material costs.8 However, it demonstrates the company’s potential under optimal conditions. The more critical question pertains to the EBIT margin. Returning to the 20%+ levels seen at the 2021 peak will be challenging in the near term, given the company’s commitment to sustained high investment in R&D and marketing to support its expansion into new categories. A sustainable EBIT margin in the high-teen range (e.g., 17-19%) appears to be a more realistic expectation in the medium term, with the ultimate level dependent on the pace of sales growth and the success of new product launches.

5. How attractive is the risk/reward profile at current valuation levels?

This is the central question for a prospective investor. The current valuation, with an EV/EBITDA multiple well above its cyclical trough, indicates that the market has already priced in a significant recovery in the business.53 The potential reward is tied to the successful execution of management’s growth strategy: effectively scaling the new product categories, successfully integrating the Quad Lock acquisition to drive growth and digital capabilities, and leveraging the innovation pipeline to deliver sustained mid-to-high single-digit organic growth. The primary risk is that a significant macroeconomic downturn could dampen consumer discretionary spending, stalling the recovery and making the current valuation appear overly optimistic. The risk/reward profile at this juncture appears balanced, with the outcome highly dependent on continued flawless execution by management and a stable to improving global economic environment.

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